Our Crypto-Upvotes experts have analyzed situation with Bitcoin on crypto market and told how it can change in next month.
Situation on cryptocurrency market completely depends on dynamics of American stock indices. Which collapsed after the speech of head of the Federal Reserve J. Powell at a conference in Jackson Hole. Over last 30 days, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P500 index is 0.77. Accordingly, if the U.S. stock market crashes. Then all risky assets, including cryptocurrency, will also collapse.
Fed is set to take control of inflation and is ready to aggressively raise rates to the detriment of the economy. Fed interest rate futures are pointing to a 75 basis point hike with a probability above 70%.
Since the Jackson Hole symposium, the technical picture for bitcoin has deteriorated. Sellers have broken down trend line from the low of $17,600 (June 18, 2022). They are restrained by support of $18-19 ths. below it the nearest target is near $12.5 ths.
Bitcoin technical analysis shows that situation has worsened
Investors’ attention is now riveted on US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data for August. According to the forecast, they are expected to show an increase in the number of employed people by 300 ths. compared to growth of 528 ths. in July. A strong jobs report will bolster expectations for the Fed to continue its aggressive 75 basis point rate hike. A sharp rate hike is a rally in the dollar and a decline in Bitcoin.
There was also another negative factor which had a negative impact on all risky assets in Asia. Chinese authorities imposed quarantine in Chengdu because of the COVID-19 outbreak. In the past two weeks in Chengdu about 600 patients with COVID-19 and about 300 asymptomatic carriers of coronavirus were identified. 21 million residents will remain in their homes. Businesses will close. Asian markets were followed by declines in European markets. As a result, futures on the S&P500 went down and pulled the pair BTC/USDt.
Also US dollar draws strength from the weakening of the single currency. Because of the energy crisis in Europe, gas prices are rising in Asia and the U.S.. This in turn leads to unwinding inflation in the world. Gas prices in the U.S. and Asia are rising after those in Europe. And the U.S. Fed is fighting inflation by raising rates. Since the euro accounts for about 57% of the dollar index.
Key event in September will be the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting. Investors fear a recession from a tightening of monetary policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve. A collapse in indices will trigger a fall in cryptocurrencies. Because buyers failed to pass the $25,500 level in mid-August, sellers continue to control market. The more the indexes fall, the more bitcoin will fall.
In next year, cryptocurrency market will be turbulent
So far, the situation for the technology sector and cryptocurrencies, which are strongly correlated with IT stocks, is alarming. Jerome Powell recent statements about the possible next key rate hike. And remaining inflation risks gave a signal to investors that the market will be turbulent in the next year. It is worth to be patient or to exit from high-risk assets in order to keep capital.
In our view, Bitcoin will continue to trade between $18K and $21K in September. We believe BTC will not even make it to $25K during September.
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