Our experts explained how a private miner managed to get a reward for the found block. With hardly noticeable computing power he was able to get 6 BTC

A lucky private miner, with barely a fraction of the processing power in the Bitcoin network. He received a reward of 6.35 BTC for finding a block numbered 772,793.

The chances of adding a block as a single miner are determined by the number of hashes. Which the miner device calculates per second. Relative to the total number of hashes that all the machines on the network compute each second.

Typically, blocks are mined by large pools combining the power of thousands of devices participating in a pool of users. The largest of them are Foundry, AntPool and Exchange of Binance’s own pool.

At the time the block was added to blockchain, the total bitcoin hashrate was just over 269 EH/s. That is, a single miner’s hash rate of 10 TH/s was only 0.000000037% of the total computing power of that network.

Chance of getting such a reward is like a big win in a lottery

Our experts say that this is an extremely atypical case. One miner privately can work for 30 years and not pick up the right hash during this time. At the same time he will consume electricity and produce a resource of equipment. The risks of finding nothing and making a loss are much greater.

It’s like buying a lottery ticket. You can buy one ticket every day and not get a win. Or you can buy one single time and win, but the chances are slim. If you approach mining as a business, it is more pragmatic to get a more modest but guaranteed income every day.

Now hashrate of network is 283 million TH/s against 10,6 TH/s capacity of unknown miner. In theory, with such parameters of the equipment it should mine one block out of almost 27 thousand mined blocks. Considering that about 900 BTC are mined per day, that’s about one block in 81 years.

Solo mining can be used when mining new coins, where the network capacity is quite low. And one person’s equipment takes a noticeable share of the entire processing power of the network. With pools, the probability of receiving remuneration increases many times over. But the user receives only a share of the reward, proportionally calculated from the entire computing power of the pool.

Bitcointalk forum users, discussing the lucky miner. came to the conclusion that his setup consisted of four rudimentary USB miners, each of which produced no more than 3 TH/s and cost about $200.

Our experts congratulate this guy, but remind us that it was a lucky lottery ticket.

Growth in securities of mining companies in January reached the highest monthly level in at least a year. Crypto-Upvotes expert review

The MVIS Global Digital Assets Mining Index, which includes data on the 20 largest miners. Such as Riot Blockchain, Galaxy Digital, Bitfarms and Iris Energy, is up 64 percent since the beginning of January 2023. This month, the indicator posted its biggest increase since its inception in December 2021. In doing so, Bitfarms securities rose more than 140%. And shares of Marathon Digital Holdings were up more than 120%. And Hive Blockchain Technologies more than doubled.

The growth of miners’ shares was caused by the recovery of Bitcoin. The first cryptocurrency since the beginning of January rose in price by 26.5% – from $ 16.6 thousand to $ 21 thousand. And on January 16 Bitcoin rate updated its maximum for 4 months, exceeding the mark of $ 21.4 thousand.

Profits of miners also increased against the growth of the crypto market. Despite the fact that the complexity of Bitcoin mining has grown to record levels. And more and more miners are plugging in, increasing hash rates. Luxor Hashprice Index – showing how much income a Bitcoin miner can expect. With a certain amount of hashrate – up 21% this year.

However, our experts note that it is unknown how long the growth of mining companies’ quotes will last. Cryptocurrency mining companies faced financial difficulties in 2022 and were forced to sell the mined cryptocurrency. As well as to return the equipment, reduce costs and personnel.

Our Crypto-Upvotes experts have analyzed situation on cryptocurrency market. And told how Bitcoin price can change in the next few days

Last week, from November 14 to 20, trading on the crypto market was relatively quiet. Increased volatility was observed on the first day of the week. Bitcoin/USDt jumped from $15.8 th. to $17.1 th. (+8.69%). Growth in quotations was caused by the head of Binance, Changpeng Zhao. He said he will launch a fund to rebuild the industry and help promising companies. He did so to reduce the negative impact from collapse of crypto exchange FTX.

After updating the weekly high price stabilized in the range of $16 thousand – $17 thousand Investors are in no hurry to buy Bitcoin because they took a wait-and-see attitude. Because of fears of the next wave of sales on the background of new bankruptcies of companies related to the collapsed exchange FTX.

For ten days, market is in the phase of rest after a recent collapse. Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P500 Index has turned negative at 0.62. Crypto market has stopped reacting to the dynamics of dollar and stock indices. Investors are busy transferring tokens from centralized exchanges to cold wallets. They are doing this to protect their cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin price is at $16,000 waiting for a new batch of news about crypto industry. As buyers have failed to quickly get the price back above $18,500. A level of $12k is still flashing green for sellers below, signaling a lack of resistance. Because of a collapse in FTX, events could begin to unfold in a worst case scenario for Bitcoin and crypto investors. Buyers need to consolidate above $18.5k. Without consolidation, bearish sentiment will not be offset.

There is a threat of new bankruptcies, and continued collapse of crypto market

So far, the ratio of long and short positions on futures market does not have any bias. Therefore, we do not expect a sharp change in the situation in the next few days.

On-chain parameters also speak in favor of absence of preconditions for fall. There is also growing interest in cold wallets, amid outflow of capital from CEX exchanges because of scandal with FTX.

Most likely scenario is a continuation of current levels. Accordingly, expected range of BTC price is about $16-17 thousand.

Among stability risks, there is a threat of new bankruptcies followed by an avalanche of liquidations. There are no guarantees that it will not happen this week. But the probability is not high either. And statements of major players about creation of crypto-business support funds to prevent exactly such chain reactions in the market. Should add optimism and confidence in protection of crypto industry from collapse.

Of important – it is worth to highlight protocol of November meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which will be published on November 23. Bitcoin is detached from risky assets, so it may ignore investors’ reaction to the publication of these protocols.

Our Crypto-Upvotes experts told us what dynamics to expect from Bitcoin and digital currency market in short term

On November 14, Bitcoin exchange rate is about $16.5 thousand. During the last week, it fell by more than 20%. Our experts have analyzed this situation on crypto market and told what kind of dynamics to expect in next week.

Any negative news will bring down crypto market

The second week of November reversed all the achievements of buyers since mid-September. The collapse of the crypto market occurred due to the fiasco of negotiations between the head of Binance Changpeng Zhao and the head of FTX Sam Bankman-Fried.

Changpeng Zhao caused a liquidity crisis at the FTX exchange on Monday with his announcement that he would sell FTT tokens. As it turned out, most of the assets of FTX-affiliated company Alameda ($14.6 billion) were FTT tokens.

The Binance CEO wiped out a huge competitor in a matter of days. There is an opinion that he intentionally made public statements about selling FTT. The collapse in crypto market was partly localized by U.S. statistics on Thursday. Slowing inflation in the U.S. collapsed the dollar and boosted demand for risky assets. Traders sold off the U.S. currency on expectations of a slowdown in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hike cycle. The BTC/USDt pair jumped 16% to $18,200.

Although Dollar Index continued to fall on Friday, cryptocurrency halted its rise. Sam Benkman-Fried undermined confidence in the crypto industry. Investors fear the collapse of other cryptocurrencies that have had liquidity problems because of FTX. We just don’t know about it yet. Alameda may be “dumping” its portfolio on the market to take advantage of a price rebound.

The inflation report temporarily diverted investors’ attention away from FTX problems. Although situation in market remains tense. After a collapse and rebound, Bitcoin/USDt is trading at $16,400 in the range of $15,600-$18,200. Shock has passed, but buyer activity is very low. Without new negative news, the continuation of the correction above $18.5k remains. In such conditions, it will be a feat for the buyers. According to our experts, the risks of Bitcoin decline to $12,000 are over 70%. The market is low-liquid, so any bad news on the collapse of some other exchange with its token will collapse crypto market within a day.

Prospects for Bitcoin to rise to $20,000 in coming week

Unfortunately, our experts do not see prerequisites for Bitcoin recovery even up to $20K. All that positive impulse, which the market got after the data about growth of consumption prices in the USA. But crisis around FTX, which is still in its acute phase and just started to develop, didn’t let BTC grow and it fell below $17K again.

This week market will wait for developments around FTX. And the details of the debts of Alameda and FTX. As well as possible solutions to the problem of repayment of debts to clients. Regulators will definitely take action, because many companies related to the American market, Galaxy Digital and Circle, have been affected.

It’s not yet completely clear how catastrophic the collapse of Alameda would be for those companies that Sam Bankman-Fried was actively rescuing in recent months. Rumors have surfaced about Alameda’s liabilities of up to $50 billion. This could be a real counterpart to a collapse of Lehman Brothers for crypto market.

Our forecast for BTC this week is that it might fall to $14-15K and it will hardly go lower because, judging by Order Book, there are huge buy orders. So even if Bitcoin falls below that level, it will be bought back immediately.

Bitcoin fell below $18 ths, other cryptocurrencies were also affected. Our Crypto-Upvotes experts pointed out reasons for market decline. And also told about its short-term prospects

In the evening of November 8 Bitcoin rate momentarily fell to a two-year low of $ 17.1 ths. As of November 9, Bitcoin cryptocurrency is trading at $ 17.2 ths, it has fallen in price by 10% over the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin price decline accelerated as the rate of cryptocurrency exchange token FTX (FTT) plummeted almost six-fold, from $19 to $3. Altcoin now trades at $4+ and shows a daily decline of 74%.

The FTT token collapse and the overall situation around the FTX crypto exchange caused the entire crypto market to fall. First, the FTX exchange lost liquidity and its own token price collapsed. And then Binance announced about buying this exchange.

Possible FTX and Binance deal attracted attention from regulators. As well as other reasons that helped Bitcoin collapse

FTX and Binance deal attracted regulators, raising antitrust concerns. Regulators have the power to block major mergers. If they fear it will limit market choice. And there are strict laws against anticompetitive behavior.

Among other factors in a declining market is the tension between China and Taiwan. Because China is a pretty big player in the crypto market. Taiwan makes chips for mining. So this factor is important and pressures cryptocurrency prices down.

Another reason, our expert called the U.S. Congress elections. At the moment, Republicans are expected to win the elections to House of Representatives.

Cryptocurrency market sympathizes, first of all, with the Democratic Party. At least by the volume of investments in their election campaign. Foreign representatives of the cryptoindustry are betting exactly on Democrats.

In addition, all these problems of crypto-industry coincided with the growth of stock indices and weakening of USD.

Crypto market at an early stage of formation of the “bottom” ?

Buyers could not take advantage of the moment to pass the level of $22.5 ths. While USD is under pressure, and stock indices are set to rise. Buyers have a chance to return Bitcoin price to $20 ths. Now we need to wait for volatility to decrease. And exchanges FTX and Binance clarified the situation and their further actions, said our expert.

Our expert added that the current situation, which now presses the crypto market, could be a culmination of decline. Because the current situation in crypto industry may be the initial stage of forming a “bottom”. Because for many market participants such prices are of interest to increase buying volume or to enter this market.

Now there should be a set of factors that will be able to raise the price up. Therefore now the L-shaped recovery, rather than a sharp reversal of a bearish trend is more probable. If the situation with China and Taiwan does not worsen. It is unlikely that anything else can hurt the market more than it already has.

What events in the next month may lead to changes in the price of Bitcoin. And to what levels it can rise or fall

First Cryptocurrency has continued to trade in a relatively narrow range since mid-June 2022. Since then, the rate of BTC fell to a low of $17.6 ths. And at its peak, it reached $25.2 ths. Most of the time, cryptocurrency is near the mark of $20 ths.

Over the past month, the Bitcoin price range has become even narrower. Maximum value of the rate for the last 30 days reached $20.4 ths (October 6). The rate of Bitcoin fell to a minimum on the day of publication of the U.S. inflation data for September. At that time the price of BTC fell to $18.3 ths, but quickly recovered.

As of Oct. 24, the leading cryptocurrency is trading around $19,200, according to CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin has a market capitalization of $371 billion, with a daily trading volume of $28.8 billion. The asset’s share of the cryptocurrency market is 38.3%.

U.S. congressional elections and macroeconomics could affect BTC price

The U.S. Congressional elections are due in November, our Crypto-Upvotes experts note. Cryptocurrency and traditional markets are generally strong in the run-up to this election. However, our experts say it’s not quite right to expect the same rate behavior as it did after the last election. The previous congressional elections were held in early November 2020. The cryptocurrency market was in a bull market. And since then, Bitcoin has gone from $15k to $61k by April 2021.

But today both the stock market and the cryptocurrency market are still bearish. And the volatility in the cryptocurrency market is quite low. Therefore, no serious rally is expected from BTC. In case it fails to rise above $23k, the downward pressure will continue.

The bearish pressure is amplified by global macroeconomic weakness combined with the popularity of short ETFs on Bitcoin. This raises concerns about whether this time there will be a repeat of November 2018, when Bitcoin collapsed from $6k to $3k also after a long period of consolidation and low volatility.

Investors, primarily institutional investors, as in the stock market, always assess the situation in terms of the reaction of the Federal Reserve (Fed). As well as on macroeconomic data on the United States. Therefore, the price of BTC may react to further Fed Funds rate hikes.

Also, among important events for Bitcoin and the entire crypto market in November, our expert called the TOKEN2049 conference. It will be held from November 9 to 10 in London. Our expert noted that it will be attended by such well-known figures in the cryptocurrency community as Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz, Tezos co-founder Kathleen Breitman and Blockchain.com CEO Peter Smith.

There is hope that the rate will soon stop rising by 75 bps. (0,75%)

At least a “slight hope” that the rate will soon stop rising by 75 bps (0.75%) at the end of each meeting. . As well as reduction at least to 0.25% or suspension of increases. All this will lead to the development of a medium-term trend for growth i Bitcoin rate.

In this case, psychologically important level of $20K may be overcome. This will allow the bulls to rush to the levels of $24K and $28.3K in the coming month. More rapid growth looks too optimistic variant so far. But it may lead to $32 thousand and $36.8 ths, says our expert.

It’s also worth paying attention to the following levels in the price of BTC when it grows: $20.5 ths, then $22.8 ths. Reaching the same Bitcoin mark at $25 K will already mean the change of current bearish trend.

Signals for continuing a bear market trend

Signal to continue bear market could be the level of $16 K. Then we should pay attention to the level of $14 K, and, finally, $10 K.

In the coming month, Bitcoin may show a decline. First, price of the first cryptocurrency may fall to around $18 K, and later to the area of $15 K – $16 K. Our expert noted that it will be possible if Fed rate will continue to rise.

Bitcoin halving could happen a few months earlier than anticipated review by our Crypto-Upvotes experts

Due to the increase in Bitcoin mining volumes, next halving (planned reduction of miners’ rewards) may occur several months earlier than predicted. According to analyst portal The TIE – it may happen as early as Q4 2023.

BTC Halving is reducing twice rewards for a mined block. This was originally built into rules of BTC network. At first, miners received 50 BTC per mined block. Then on November 28, 2012, rewards were reduced to 25 BTC. And on July 9, 2016, to 12.5 BTC, and on May 11, 2020, to 6.25 BTC. Next halving is to take place on block 840,000. Presumably, production of which was announced as May 3, 2024.

Usually, for calculating halving dates, average Bitcoin block mining time of 10 minutes is used. But analytics platforms use constantly updated blockchain statistics to calculate. And to estimate current average Bitcoin block mining time, and then use that number for calculations. According to analysts, this makes the countdown more accurate. A similar method is used by CoinMarketCap platform. Which predicts halving also earlier than planned – in February 2024.

Analysts say that the reason why hashrate is approaching is that there is an increase in BTC mining. Now hashrate network has reached historical highs of more than 284 EH/s.

In 2013, an Cryptoinvestor bought 5,000 BTC at about $660 per coin. Now he withdrew Bitcoin, which is currently trading at $19000+

On September 5, an Cryptoinvestor withdrew 5,000 BTC ($96 million at exchange rate at time of transaction) from address, which had been inactive for last 9 years. In 2013, a crypto investor bought Bitcoin at a price of about $660 per coin. During this period, investments increased in value 29 times.

Recently, more and more old holders have begun to withdraw Bitcoin from their wallets. On night of March 10, сryptoinvestor withdrew 489 BTC ($20 million at the time of transaction). His wallet had been inactive for at least 11 years. Unknown bought 489 BTC for $50 at end of 2010. On March 10, he withdrew the cryptocurrency, which went up 400,000 times in price.

Our experts point out that it is useful to be a long-term holder. You just need to buy a promising cryptocurrency and not touch that wallet for a few years. Not a single bank in the world can bring such % of profit. So buy coins from famous projects and forget about this wallet for 3-5 years at least and then maybe you will become a millionaire.

Our Crypto-Upvotes experts have analyzed situation with Bitcoin on crypto market and told how it can change in next month.

Situation on cryptocurrency market completely depends on dynamics of American stock indices. Which collapsed after the speech of head of the Federal Reserve J. Powell at a conference in Jackson Hole. Over last 30 days, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P500 index is 0.77. Accordingly, if the U.S. stock market crashes. Then all risky assets, including cryptocurrency, will also collapse.

Fed is set to take control of inflation and is ready to aggressively raise rates to the detriment of the economy. Fed interest rate futures are pointing to a 75 basis point hike with a probability above 70%.

Since the Jackson Hole symposium, the technical picture for bitcoin has deteriorated. Sellers have broken down trend line from the low of $17,600 (June 18, 2022). They are restrained by support of $18-19 ths. below it the nearest target is near $12.5 ths.

Bitcoin technical analysis shows that situation has worsened

Investors’ attention is now riveted on US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data for August. According to the forecast, they are expected to show an increase in the number of employed people by 300 ths. compared to growth of 528 ths. in July. A strong jobs report will bolster expectations for the Fed to continue its aggressive 75 basis point rate hike. A sharp rate hike is a rally in the dollar and a decline in Bitcoin.

There was also another negative factor which had a negative impact on all risky assets in Asia. Chinese authorities imposed quarantine in Chengdu because of the COVID-19 outbreak. In the past two weeks in Chengdu about 600 patients with COVID-19 and about 300 asymptomatic carriers of coronavirus were identified. 21 million residents will remain in their homes. Businesses will close. Asian markets were followed by declines in European markets. As a result, futures on the S&P500 went down and pulled the pair BTC/USDt.

Also US dollar draws strength from the weakening of the single currency. Because of the energy crisis in Europe, gas prices are rising in Asia and the U.S.. This in turn leads to unwinding inflation in the world. Gas prices in the U.S. and Asia are rising after those in Europe. And the U.S. Fed is fighting inflation by raising rates. Since the euro accounts for about 57% of the dollar index.

Key event in September will be the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting. Investors fear a recession from a tightening of monetary policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve. A collapse in indices will trigger a fall in cryptocurrencies. Because buyers failed to pass the $25,500 level in mid-August, sellers continue to control market. The more the indexes fall, the more bitcoin will fall.

In next year, cryptocurrency market will be turbulent

So far, the situation for the technology sector and cryptocurrencies, which are strongly correlated with IT stocks, is alarming. Jerome Powell recent statements about the possible next key rate hike. And remaining inflation risks gave a signal to investors that the market will be turbulent in the next year. It is worth to be patient or to exit from high-risk assets in order to keep capital.

In our view, Bitcoin will continue to trade between $18K and $21K in September. We believe BTC will not even make it to $25K during September.

Forbes conducted a study of Bitcoin transactions. It showed that estimates of platforms that are considered reputable do not reflect real picture of BTC trading volume.

More than half of the trades on exchanges with BTC are fake. According to a study conducted by Forbes. The reasons are so-called “wash trading” and poor monitoring of exchanges.

Wash trading is when a trader repeatedly buys and sells the same asset over a short period of time. Thus trying to mislead other market participants about price or liquidity of asset. The purpose of these operations is to inflate trading volume and create the appearance of growing popularity of the asset. The Forbes article notes that wash trading also benefits exchanges.

The study found that BTC trading volumes calculated by platforms considered reputable do not reflect the real picture. Resources such as CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, Nomics and Messari give completely different estimates of daily Bitcoin trading. Forbes estimated the total daily trading volume of bitcoin on June 14 at $128 billion. This is half as much as the $262 billion volume reported by these platforms.

The most problematic in terms of counterfeit volumes are platforms. Which report big numbers but operate with little or no regulatory oversight. These are the likes of Binance, MEXC Global and Bybit. In total, less-regulated exchanges account for about $89 billion in real trading volume, according to the study. Whereas according to these platforms, the index was at $217 billion.

Opinion

Our experts are not surprised that volumes of BTC and other popular cryptocurrencies can be fake. Because we see large volumes on many non-popular exchanges. But in fact many of them don’t have big amount of users for those volumes which they show. So it’s not surprising that even big platforms like Binance use fake volumes.

But we believe that in the near future many exchanges will no longer be able to do this. Because many countries are restricting and starting to strictly regulate all major CEX exchanges.