Our experts analyzed situation on the crypto market and told how the price of Bitcoin can change

The week of March 25-31 was relatively quiet. The following key factors influenced the crypto market. This is the dynamics of the U.S. dollar, stock indices and futures on them. As well as data on inflation in the U.S., measured by the PCE index, as well as the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell. News about the accusations against the KuCoin exchange caused concerns and led to a massive outflow of funds from the platform. But it did not have a strong impact on the market either and Bitcoin.

Last week’s analysis

On March 25, bitcoin showed a strong growth of 3.97% and closed at $69,880 per coin. This rise occurred after the bulls were able to overcome an important resistance level at $65,430 on Sunday. And that marked the break of the local downtrend.

On March 26, the BTC/USDT pair rose 0.15% to $69,988, hitting an intraday high of $71,561. Buyers took a pause, retreating to $69,280.

March 27 saw increased volatility. The BTC/USDT pair fell 0.74% to $69,469 after a failed attempt to break above $71,769. The price slipped 5% to $68,359, but did not go below this level.

On March 28, the BTC/USDT pair rose 1.89% to $70,780. The price touched $71,500 three times. But it failed to move higher because of the S&P 500 futures drawdown before the close of trading.

On March 29, trading on the BTC/USDT pair ended with a 1.31% decline to $69,850. Despite the buyers’ attempts to develop upward dynamics, they failed to hold the gained positions. During the U.S. session, the bitcoin rate fell to $69,000.

As on this day the exchanges of the USA and Europe were closed due to Easter holidays. The cryptocurrency market was deprived of the guidelines set by traditional markets. The pressure on prices could be exerted by the published data on inflation in the United States. As well as the speech of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell.

By the time the trading closed, the bitcoin price recovered to $69,850. And remaining within a four-day sideways trend with a range of $68,350 – $71,550 (the maximum of the week was $71,769).

U.S. inflation data and a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell

According to the released figures, inflation in the US, as measured by the change in the price index of personal consumption expenditures (PCE). And rose to 2.5% year-on-year in February. The core PCE price index also showed an increase. These data were in line with expectations. However, they did appear to have put some pressure on the market. As traditional exchanges were down, it was mostly bitcoin that reacted.

Rising inflation and Jerome Powell’s words about the need to keep rates high could mean the following. That the Federal Reserve will be cautious about changing rates. Market conditions and new employment data will be key factors for future Fed decisions between April 1 and April 7.

Important events expected this week and possible BTC price changes

This week will be full of publication of important macroeconomic indicators. Therefore, we should expect increased volatility in all markets. On April 3, Jerome Powell will make another speech.

Currently, bitcoin is in a sideways with a range of about 5% or $3450. The technical picture remains on the side of buyers. The only potential negative factor could be the strengthening of the dollar after the long weekend.
Possible technical resistance levels could be $72,650 and $73,800. According to BitRiver estimates, on the sellers’ side, $65,800 and $60,800 levels are the targets.

Our experts note that issuers of nine new spot bitcoin-ETFs. Which were launched on January 11, currently own more than 500 thousand BTC worth $35.2 billion at the current exchange rate. The first place by number of coins in the vault is occupied by BlackRock with about 250 thousand BTC. And in second place is Fidelity with about 150k BTC, and the top three is rounded out by Bitwise with 50k BTC. Before the upcoming halving, the demand for bitcoin remains high. And therefore, the support from institutional investors will remain for a long time.

Investors are not in a hurry to part with their BTC at current prices, our experts explain the reasons why

The average value of transactions on the BTC blockchain has decreased significantly from its 2021 peak. And recorded during the bull market. About it writes CoinDesk citing reports from experts.

“There are very few funds moving within the blockchain. And that is a sign of low liquidity and unwillingness of investors to sell their cryptocurrencies.” This is also what Blockware Solutions analysts wrote in a newsletter “No one wants to sell,” the experts added.

According to data from analytics company Glassnode, the average bitcoin transfer volume over the past two weeks was less than $200,000. In 2021, during the cryptocurrency market bull market, this figure often exceeded $1 million.

Experts attribute the decline in transaction volume to the concentration of spot market trading in exchange-traded funds (ETFs). In addition, other market indicators indicate that the share of bitcoins. Which have not moved online in three to five years, continues to grow. And long-term holders are in no hurry to sell their assets, expecting further growth in the BTC rate.

Prospects for BTC price growth

Our experts note that Blockware analysts predict. That in the coming months the price of bitcoin can grow to six-digit values. And the historical maximum may exceed $150 thousand.

Strong price growth will catalyze a sharp increase in transaction volume. Investors will start taking previously purchased coins to exchanges for sale, increasing the liquidity of supply – according to Blockware analysts.

The low volume of network transactions at the moment indicates that the market lacks sellers. Who are ready to part with cryptocurrency at the current price.

Kaiko analysts note that the rate at which wallets with balances over $1 million are appearing is still below the previous Bitcoin bull market cycle

As the bitcoin exchange rate rises, an average of about 1,500 new “millionaire wallets” appear every day. And that hold $1 million or more worth of cryptocurrency. However, this figure is still lower than during the 2021 bull market, data provided by analytics platform Kaiko.

Transaction data on cryptocurrency wallets Bitcoin is public. But it is not possible to establish their belonging to a specific owner. Kaiko tools do not take into account the addresses of exchanges and other major crypto services.

The highest number of new wallets containing more than $1 million in bitcoins. And since the beginning of the year – 1,691 – was recorded on March 1. In 2020-2021, more than 4,000 wallets with a balance of about $1 million and more than 2,000 wallets with more than $10 million appeared every day.

In 2021, the crypto market was swept by a wave of retail investors eager to capitalize on the wave of excitement. However, in 2023, large investors behaved more cautiously. And sold their assets as bitcoin hit new highs, Kaiko writes.

Our experts note that the slower pace may also be due to the fact that the inflow of new capital has not yet gained momentum. And investors are storing their assets with trustees rather than in their personal wallets.

Our experts analyzed the market situation and told how it may change this week for Bitcoin and the market as a whole

During the period from January 22 to January 28, the Bitcoin price showed high volatility. During the week, Bitcoin traded in a wide range from $38,555 to $42,246.

On Monday, January 22, the price fell below the $40k mark, reaching $39,480. The drop was caused by the active outflow of funds from Grayscale’s bitcoin-ETF amid the endorsement of competing products.

On Tuesday, January 23, the Bitcoin price fell to a low of $38,555. And that led to a wave of liquidations in the futures market. The outflow from Grayscale continued to exert pressure.

On January 24 and 25, quotations consolidated in the range of $39,484 – $40,555 with multidirectional dynamics. High volatility remained on the market. Market participants were waiting for some new portion of positive news.

On Friday, January 26, at the end of the day, the BTC/USD pair rose by 4.66% to $41,823. Buyers managed to stop the collapse of the crypto market. After a 13-day drop of 21% from the January 11 high of $48,969, the price recovered 9.57% to $42,246. They have reversed the drop for January 22, and this is a positive for the whole market.

Reasons for the fall in the price of  Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s downward correction has been largely attributed to redemptions in Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). Before GBTC was converted into an ETF on January 11. And it was one of the few ways for U.S. investors to access BTC without owning the underlying cryptocurrency. After the long-awaited approval on Jan. 10, investors took the opportunity to sell their GBTC units, locking in profits on their trades. This meant an exit from the cryptocurrency market, hence the downward pressure on the bitcoin price. Outflows from the fund totaled nearly $4 billion.

The price bounced off the $38,555 support. The recovery accelerated after JPMorgan said that the peak of GBTC sales is mostly over. The upward correction intensified from the European session with the decline in the dollar index. The outflow of funds from the Grayscale trust slowed down, which led to an easing of pressure on the cryptocurrency.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF iShares (IBIT) has had a significant impact on the cryptocurrency investment industry. In just 10 days after the fund’s launch, the company has accumulated $1,982,095,794 or 49952.32570 BTC (from a report from BlackRock’s website) in assets under management (AUM) after the fund’s launch and market cap. The amount indicates a lot of interest among investors. At the current exchange rate, it is already over $2 billion.

When the price correction will end

Cautious investors have now taken a wait-and-see attitude. As this is only the first upward wave after the market collapse. Then sellers will check buyers once again. And how ready they are to defend the $38,555 level and raise the rate to $69k for Bitcoin by the halving, which will take place around April 20.

BitRiver predicts that the decline phase will end on February 10. Then we can test the level of $50 thousand. In order to support the bullish trend from the low of $24,901 from September 11, 2023. The higher the buyers drive the price, the less likely it is to update the $38,555 support.

There is great news for buyers now – a pin–bar is forming on the weekly chart – a green body with a long lower shadow. Our experts remind that the fall from $48,969 started with such an inverted candle. And this is a bid for growth up to $45 thousand.

Important events of this week

The economic calendar is quite full of important data. January 30 will see the release of Eurozone GDP data for the fourth quarter. January 31 will see the release of China’s manufacturing PMI for January. And oil inventory reports from the American Petroleum Institute and the U.S. Department of Energy, the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting and J. Powell’s press conference. On February 1, the States will publish the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector. And on February 2 – a report on the employment market (unemployment, new jobs, average hourly earnings). And also the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan for January.

As for the Federal Reserve’s next moves, CME Group’s FedWatch tool predicts a rate hike at next Wednesday’s (Jan. 31) Fed meeting with a 96.7% probability. Votes in March are split, but the probability of a cut in May is estimated at around 87%.

Our experts analyzed the state of the market and talked about how bitcoin will behave in December 2023

In November, bitcoin rose by 11% against the dollar. The main driver of the upward dynamics was positive expectations of the soon approval of the spot bitcoin-ETF by the US financial regulator. Additional support for the crypto market was provided by the weakening of the dollar. And the growth of stock indices in the U.S. in anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve rate at the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on December 13.

In the market remains positive mood of market participants. The technical picture on the daily timeframe is also favorable for the continuation of the upward movement of the pair BTC/USD in the medium term before halving.

Halving is a planned reduction in the number of newly issued bitcoins (BTC). Which are created and distributed to miners who perform verification and validation of transactions on the network. This is embedded in the bitcoin program code to ensure that the total number of coins on the network never exceeds 21 million units. The next bitcoin halving is expected in April 2024.

Important events that the markets will focus on include U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth data for the last quarter and personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price information for the third quarter. The market is actively watching inflation as it is linked to expectations of further decisions by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

We expect bullish dynamics

The digital asset market has historically tended to rise in December. Given fundamental factors. Such as the prospect of spot  bitcoin ETF approvals in early 2024. And the approaching halving, the growing number of institutional investors and the sustainability of market capitalization. Our experts expect bullish momentum in December. As they did throughout the fourth quarter before that.

Our expectations for November were to reach the level of $38 thousand, and bitcoin succeeded to grow to this level at the end of the month. Because of this, the $40-45k zone expected since the beginning of the year remains the target zone for December. And our experts expect BTC to grow to these levels, as well as to increase the capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market to $1.6-1.8 trillion.

Now the main resistance level for bitcoin is around $40 thousand. It can be expected that the cryptocurrency will overcome this psychological mark by mid-December. The optimistic scenario assumes bitcoin growth to $45 thousand by the end of the year and continued growth at a quiet pace to $55 thousand until halving in the bitcoin network in the spring of 2024.

Our experts analyzed the market situation and told how it may change in the coming week for Bitcoin and the market as a whole

• 5 important events in the crypto market affecting the bitcoin rate for the week from October 30 to November 3:
• The US Federal Reserve meeting on November 1, which decided to keep the interest rate unchanged. This caused an increase in risk appetite.
• Fed chief Jerome Powell’s statements about a possible slowdown in the pace of future rate hikes. This also put pressure on the dollar and supported the bitcoin price.
• Investor expectations for the imminent approval of a spot bitcoin-ETF fueled interest in bitcoin earlier in the week.
• The publication of weak US labor market data on Friday reinforced expectations of a slowdown in Fed policy tightening.
• The price failed to consolidate above $35k.

Last week bitcoin traded in the range of $34-36 thousand. On October 30, the price of BTC fell to $34,474, but remained in a horizontal trend around $34,300. On October 31, the price rose slightly to $34,639, continuing to consolidate in anticipation of the US Federal Reserve results.

Detailed analysis of last week and conclusions

On November 1, there was a sharp rise to $35,421 after the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting. The growth was caused by investor optimism after the Fed head’s statements about a possible slowdown in rate hikes.

On November 2, the price rose to a weekly high of $35,984, from which the correction began. It was aided by a decline in optimism about the imminent approval of a spot bitcoin-ETF. Amid the failed offensive, the price fell to $34,300.

On November 3, at the end of the day, bitcoin fell in price by 0.64% to $34716. In general, trading was calm, without sharp bursts of volatility.

During the first half of the day, there was a gradual decline in cryptocurrency quotes. The rate fell to the level of $34,120, followed by a slight recovery.

Some support for the market was provided by the data on the situation in the U.S. labor market, published at the U.S. session. The indicators turned out to be weaker than market expectations. In particular, the number of new jobs for October amounted to 150 thousand instead of the expected 180 thousand. The previous figure was revised to 297 thousand from 336 thousand. And the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% from 3.8%, with expectations of 3.8%. And average hourly earnings rose 0.2%, compared with a 0.2% increase in the previous month, and a forecast of 0.3%.

Such data reinforced investor expectations that the US Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its monetary tightening cycle. This provided support for risky assets. Since the bitcoin rally was at the end of October. The reaction to the weakening dollar and the growth of stock indices was weak. The euphoria from expectations of spot ETF approval is fading.

What will happen to the bitcoin price in the coming days

Buyers showed themselves well, as they used the provided time window. And to carry the shorts above $35,200 and to get as close as possible to the level of $36 th. External conditions remain favorable for the upward movement. Only according to the calculated cycles is approaching the correction phase with a target of $33 thousand. And it may last from November 9 through November 21. The smaller the correction will be, the higher the probability of growth up to $42 th.

Temporary resistance is the zone of $35,000 – $35,150. Taking into account the weakness of the dollar and the weekly growth of stock indices. The buyers may have time to check the stops behind the level of $36 th. And it is logical, as the truncated formation is formed on the daily timeframe.

Thus, bitcoin demonstrated moderately positive dynamics this week. Our experts note that the key levels of the corridor remain $34 thousand and $36 thousand. To enter the positive zone, it is necessary to confidently overcome the resistance at $36 thousand. Buyers are better to go on the defensive and gain strength for the end of November: efforts will be required to pass new resistances.

MicroStrategy has bought another 467 BTC since June 30. And at the end of July, it owned 152,800 Bitcoins

Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy may raise up to $750 million by selling its shares to three companies. And the proceeds may be used, among other things, to buy Bitcoins. And this is what the company said in a statement filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on August 1.

“As with previous programs, we may use the proceeds for general corporate purposes. And which include the purchase of bitcoins and the repurchase or repayment of our outstanding debt,” the company clarified.

MicroStrategy bought another $361.4 million worth of Bitcoins in the second quarter of 2023. And what was the largest coin purchase by the company since the cryptocurrency’s price peak in late 2021. Since June 30, the company has purchased an additional 467 coins. This brings the total value of Bitcoins held by the company to about $4.53 billion. As of July 31, the company owned 152,800 BTC.

Our experts note that the company purchased between April 29 and June 27 at an average price of about $28,136 per 1 BTC. Additionally, another 12,333 bitcoins for a total of $347 million.
This purchase brings the total number of Bitcoins held by the company to 152,333 BTC, which is approximately $4.6 billion at the exchange rate at the time of publication. The company paid a total of about $4.52 billion for these bitcoins, with an average purchase price of about $29,668 per 1 BTC, including commissions and other expenses.

Our experts have assessed how realistic the forecast from Standard Chartered looks. And what we can actually expect from the price of the first cryptocurrency

Bitcoin (BTC) may reach $50 thousand this year and $120 thousand by the end of 2024. This was stated in a recent report by analysts at Standard Chartered. The bank back in April published a Bitcoin price forecast for the end of 2024 – $100 thousand, explaining that the crypto winter is coming to an end. One of the bank’s leading currency analysts, Jeff Kendrick, says that now 20 per cent should be added to this forecast.

Standard Chartered is a large British bank with operations around the world. The company’s assets, according to Forbes, amount to $820.7bn. Standard Chartered has a network of 1.2 thousand branches in more than 70 countries.

A conservative enough scenario

We believe this scenario is quite realistic given the approaching halving in April 2024 and the inflow of capital into the crypto market by large investment funds such as BlackRock and Fidelity Investments.

Bitcoin will gradually rise to the $50k level. But the really noticeable growth is expected in mid-August. And when the first deadline of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on the Bitcoin-ETF decision will pass. Growth could then continue into September and October. And when, according to many analysts, the Fed’s rate hike cycle will end. And already next year, on the background of halving, the price of BTC, quite probably, can reach the mark of $100-120 thousand.

The market has been in a state of consolidation for several weeks. And the BTC rate is fluctuating around $30,500. The nearest important events that can affect the market are reports on the consumer price index (CPI). And producer price index (PPI) in the U.S. on 12 and 13 July, respectively, which may affect the Fed’s rate decision.

Our experts note that the meeting itself will be held on 26 July. Both experts and traders are already confident in raising the current rate from 5.25 to 5.50%. And that could potentially cause a slight correction in the Bitcoin rate.

Bitcoin could exceed $125,000 in 1.5 years, analysts suggest, based on past signals

The head of research and strategy at cryptocurrency marketplace Matrixport, Marcus Thielen, predicted. That Bitcoin could surpass $125k by 2025. According to historical data, the reversal to a multi-month rally is off to a good start. And once prices reach a yearly high, thereby confirming the end of the bearish cycle.

The signal was formed at the end of last June, when the exchange rate of BTC exceeded $31k. Earlier impulses were recorded in August 2012, December 2015. And in May 2019 and August 2020, preceding the first cryptocurrency’s active rate hike.

Given the data on the asset’s yields from the most important marks during these periods, Thielen speculated. That over the next 12 months the value of the coin will rise by 123%, to $65,539, and over 1.5 years will increase by 310%, to $125,731.

On the day of July 6, Bitcoin price momentarily reached $31,500, the first time this has happened since the beginning of the year. VTS has risen by more than 3% overnight and by almost 90% since January 1.

Our experts note that the price of some other cryptocurrencies rose after Bitcoin. Solana (SOL) was among the leaders of the day, rising 5.7% to $20.18. Bitcoin Cash also continued to grow markedly.

Our experts talked about the reasons for Bitcoin Cash price growth and its prospects as an asset for big investors

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) cryptocurrency reacted with a sharp jump to the news of the launch of a cryptocurrency exchange. For institutional investors, EDX Markets and doubled in less than a week.

The cryptocurrency began to rise in value after news of the launch of EDX Markets, a cryptocurrency exchange for institutional investors, in the United States. Which was backed by major financial firms such as Citadel Securities, Fidelity Digital Assets and Charles Schwab. The new exchange offers trading in four cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin Cash (BCH). The other three assets on EDX were Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH) and Litecoin (LTC). A week before, BlackRock also applied for an exchange-traded fund (ETF) for Bitcoin, which also added to the market’s optimism.

A bit of history

The cryptocurrency Bitcoin Cash emerged in 2017 as a modified copy (fork) of Bitcoin itself with an increased transaction block size. This approach made payments in BCH faster and cheaper compared to the “original” Bitcoin. But it did not solve a number of other technical problems, including the lack of support from interested professional developers. Proponents of Bitcoin Cash promotion, the most famous of which is considered to be Roger Wehr. He positioned it specifically as a currency for everyday payments, as opposed to Bitcoin as a store of value.

Bitcoin Cash has long been a weak asset, losing most of its development team. The coin’s attractiveness for miners was also questionable. And the development of its ecosystem as a crypto project was losing not only to new tokens and more scalable projects. But also Bitcoin itself as a leader in terms of use as a payment instrument.

Bitcoin Cash now

Now there was a change because BCH had a low base effect. This is when one positive factor was enough for the price to take off. And the participants, who played on the decrease, were liquidated. In fact, the price growth occurred precisely due to liquidations, our experts say.

The second important factor was that BCH appeared as an asset on the EDX Markets. The choice of this asset is clear, because it has almost no risk of being recognized as a security. This means they can be traded without the risk of encountering the actions of regulators. Thus, American investors saw this as a signal to buy the asset. And which in the long run could become a legally traded cryptocurrency in the U.S.

Bitcoin is the undisputed leader among institutional investors. But it so happens that BCH, LTC, ETH as old projects of the crypto market also enjoy some popularity among them. The main reason is that these coins have already proved their viability. And secondly, they are highly likely not to be classified as securities. For institutionalists who don’t just manage their own money. But above all other people’s, this is a large and significant factor in making investment decisions, our experts say