Two major reasons why Bitcoin will update highs before halving

Historical data on market cycles and the value of one of the major technical indicators may indicate further Bitcoin appreciation

Bitcoin could surpass the all-time high of $69,000 by the time of the fourth halving, scheduled for the second half of April. About it writes CoinDesk.

Technical indicators

Based on data from the relative strength index (RSI) indicator, which measures the speed and change in prices, Markus Tillen suggested an acceleration of bitcoin’s uptrend.

A week ago, bitcoin’s 14-day RSI exceeded the 80 mark for the first time since December. According to 10X Research, 12 out of 14 times in the past when the RSI exceeded the 70 mark. That bitcoin price rose an average of 54% over the next 60 days.

“It’s worth noting that the previous time this signal appeared, the bitcoin price was at $48k. When considering an average return of 54% over 60 days, bitcoin could rise to the $74,600 level,” noted Markis Tillen of 10X Research.

The bitcoin price is at $52k, as of February 20, which is 25% above the price level at the beginning of the year and 207% above the low reached in November 2022. Bitcoin quotes are just 28% below the all-time high of $69k. And with that, the supply of coins will decrease as a result of the upcoming halving.

The second reason is Market Cyclicality

Our experts note that as previous cycles have shown. Which are related to bitcoin halving, the bottom of bitcoin price often comes 12-16 months before the halving. And then a period of growth follows, both before the event itself and for a year afterward. In the previous three cycles, bitcoin prices rose more than 30% in the eight weeks before the halving.

Based on historical data, bitcoin rises an average of 32% in the 60 days before the halving. “By the time of the halving or even earlier, the value of BTC could be approaching a record high of $69,000,” CoinDesk quoted Marcus Tillen as saying.

The assumptions of other cryptocurrency market analysts coincide with the predictions of 10X Research. Analysts of the trading company QCP Capital published a note for investors. And in which they allowed the possibility of BTC exceeding the historical maximum already by the end of March. In their opinion, the price of digital currency will depend on the inflow of funds into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and accumulation of options to buy bitcoin with strike prices of $60-80 thousand.

According to the calculations of another analytical company – CryptoQuant, the price of the first cryptocurrency can grow to $112 thousand. And if the current trend of inflow of funds into exchange-traded funds ( ETF) for BTC continues.

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US allows Bitcoin ETF for the first time after 10 years of denials

The U.S. SEC has issued a favorable ruling on the launch of Bitcoin ETF from BlackRock and other companies. These exchange-traded funds are expected to open access to cryptocurrency to a wide range of investors and attract new capital

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved the launch of 11 exchange-traded funds (ETFs) investing directly in Bitcoin. And will open up access to the largest cryptocurrency in the traditional US financial market and beyond.

The SEC has authorized funds from all applicant companies, including BlacrRock and Fidelity Investments. And to begin trading shares on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), NASDAQ and Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) starting Jan. 11.

Why a spot bitcoin ETF is important

Various exchange traded funds (ETFs). And including gold, have trillions of dollars in assets under management. In the cryptocurrency community, it is widely believed that even a small percentage of this capital can potentially impact the global crypto market. After the approval of spot Bitcoin ETF, the demand for cryptocurrency should increase: buying shares of the funds implies the delivery of bitcoin as an underlying asset, that is, its direct purchase in the market, affecting the rate.

The decision came a day after SEC  X account (formerly Twitter) posted a false message that the agency had approved the ETF. Minutes after the publication appeared, the regulator said the account had been hacked. This led to sharp fluctuations in the bitcoin exchange rate. Which reacted with sharp jumps to each of the statements.

Regulator has been withholding approval to launch ETFs for more than a decade

Our experts note that back in 2013, twin brothers Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, now owners of the Gemini cryptocurrency exchange, decided to create the first such fund. In June 2023, the world’s largest management company BlackRock applied for registration of a bitcoin-ETF.

The ruling in favor of bitcoin funds came after Grayscale Investments scored a key victory over the SEC in court. A federal appeals court overturned the SEC’s denial of Grayscale’s application to convert its existing bitcoin trust into a full-fledged ETF. The court called the denial “arbitrary and capricious” because SEC officials were unable to make a compelling argument for banning spot funds. Back in 2021, the SEC approved several ETFs. Which allow investors to speculate on bitcoin futures. But the shares of such ETFs have no direct impact on the bitcoin market.

SEC Chairman Gary Gensler emphasized this in a public statement. According to him, it was the Grayscale case that was the tipping point for the regulator to change its rhetoric. Nevertheless, the agency still “does not endorse or support bitcoin itself.” Investors, it said, should be wary of the “numerous risks associated with bitcoin and products whose value is tied to the cryptocurrency.”

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The market could be feverish. What will happen to bitcoin this week

Our weekly feature on Bitcoin. Our experts analyzed the market situation and told how it may change this week

The week that ended on December 10 was a good week for bitcoin. And for investors who prefer long positions, it was extremely favorable. At the beginning of the week bitcoin crossed the $40 thousand mark and, apparently, managed to accumulate strength and consolidate above this level. By the weekend bitcoin came close to the next psychological boundary of $45 thousand, but the growth rate slowed down. Bitcoin will have to force this mark during the week of December 11-17. According to many prerequisites, the first cryptocurrency will manage to do it and get a foothold above $45 thousand.

The main factors in the growth of the crypto market remain expectations that the SEC will soon approve the launch of bitcoin-ETF. And flows of institutional capital will flow into cryptocurrency.

The state of the U.S. economy also gives a strong impetus to the crypto market. Namely, the expectation of a slowdown in inflation in the United States and the beginning of the period of reduction of the key rate by the Federal Reserve Service (FRS). At first glance, the positive dynamics in the Fed’s fight against inflation entails risks of recession in the U.S. economy. A recession along with inflation above the 2% target threatens investors with asset depreciation. This encourages them to hedge risks and move some capital into protective assets. For example, gold, which has shown growth in recent weeks. Or cryptocurrencies, which, although highly volatile, can give a high ROI (return on investment).

Main events of this week

This week, the main attention of cryptocurrency market participants, as well as the stock market, will be focused on the key events of the U.S. economy.

On December 12, the U.S. Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics will release data on inflation in November 2023. The US CPI is expected to rise slightly from October’s level. But the Core CPI (Core CPI), which reveals the trend of hidden inflation. On the contrary, it will slow down year-on-year. The PPI and retail sales data will also be important for the market.

But the main event of the week will undoubtedly be the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve on December 12-13 on the key rate. And the following press conference of the Fed’s head Jerome Powell. Market participants do not expect the key rate to change. But high hopes are pinned on Powell’s speech: they are waiting for him to signal the US Fed’s readiness to start reducing the key rate in 2024. And that should stimulate economic growth and investors’ interest in risky assets, which include cryptocurrencies.

The crypto market may be feverish

In the first half of the week, we can expect high bitcoin volatility on the back of the Fed meeting and the publication of inflation data. The crypto market can be feverish – from sharp rises on expectations of the Fed’s decision to a sudden correction right after Powell’s speech. Support levels for bitcoin will be $41-42 thousand, and resistance – $48 thousand.

By the end of the week bitcoin will show how strong the bulls are in the crypto market. And whether they will be able to gather their strength to confidently consolidate above $45 thousand. Given that the deadline for the publication of the SEC decision on applications for the launch of bitcoin – ETF is in early January 2024. It can be expected that in the next month, the upward trend in the cryptocurrency market will continue. Our experts note that while crypto market participants have not received a final answer to the ETF question, they will continue to hope for a quick launch of the exchange traded fund. And their hopes will serve as a basis for the growth of bitcoin price.

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Bitcoin hits 2023 high. What will happen to cryptocurrencies in December

Our experts analyzed the state of the market and talked about how bitcoin will behave in December 2023

In November, bitcoin rose by 11% against the dollar. The main driver of the upward dynamics was positive expectations of the soon approval of the spot bitcoin-ETF by the US financial regulator. Additional support for the crypto market was provided by the weakening of the dollar. And the growth of stock indices in the U.S. in anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve rate at the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on December 13.

In the market remains positive mood of market participants. The technical picture on the daily timeframe is also favorable for the continuation of the upward movement of the pair BTC/USD in the medium term before halving.

Halving is a planned reduction in the number of newly issued bitcoins (BTC). Which are created and distributed to miners who perform verification and validation of transactions on the network. This is embedded in the bitcoin program code to ensure that the total number of coins on the network never exceeds 21 million units. The next bitcoin halving is expected in April 2024.

Important events that the markets will focus on include U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth data for the last quarter and personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price information for the third quarter. The market is actively watching inflation as it is linked to expectations of further decisions by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

We expect bullish dynamics

The digital asset market has historically tended to rise in December. Given fundamental factors. Such as the prospect of spot  bitcoin ETF approvals in early 2024. And the approaching halving, the growing number of institutional investors and the sustainability of market capitalization. Our experts expect bullish momentum in December. As they did throughout the fourth quarter before that.

Our expectations for November were to reach the level of $38 thousand, and bitcoin succeeded to grow to this level at the end of the month. Because of this, the $40-45k zone expected since the beginning of the year remains the target zone for December. And our experts expect BTC to grow to these levels, as well as to increase the capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market to $1.6-1.8 trillion.

Now the main resistance level for bitcoin is around $40 thousand. It can be expected that the cryptocurrency will overcome this psychological mark by mid-December. The optimistic scenario assumes bitcoin growth to $45 thousand by the end of the year and continued growth at a quiet pace to $55 thousand until halving in the bitcoin network in the spring of 2024.

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Buyers are in a hurry. What’s going to happen to bitcoin this week

Our weekly feature. Our experts analyzed the market situation and told how it may change for bitcoin this week

On Sunday, November 26, bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $37.7k, its price up 3% since the end of the previous week.

Key events of the past week:

  • News of a $4.3 billion fine for crypto exchange Binance and the resignation of the head of Binance. The market had mixed reactions to the news.
  • The expectation of the soon approval of bitcoin-ETF in the US was the main factor of investor optimism and BTC price growth.
  • Weakening of the US dollar. Had a supporting effect on the bitcoin price.
  • The growth of stock indices in the U.S. had a positive impact on the bitcoin price dynamics.

Last week, bitcoin traded in a range of $35,632 to $38,414.

On November 20, bitcoin closed at $37,448 after a slight increase of 0.24%. On November 21 and 22, the price plummeted to $35,632 amid news of a $4.3 billion fine for Binance and the resignation of Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao. However, by the end of Wednesday, November 22, bitcoin recovered its losses and rose by 4.66% to close at $37,408. Thursday and Friday were relatively quiet with slight price fluctuations around $37,500.

November 24 saw a 1.12% rise with a high of $38,414. It became the highest value in the last 18 months. Buyers failed to consolidate at these high levels. Almost immediately after the high was updated, there was a correction to $37,550. Nevertheless, bitcoin managed to stabilize above $37,500, maintaining most of the gained growth. At the end of the week bitcoin shows positive dynamics with growth of 0.84%.

The main driver of the upward dynamics were positive expectations of the soon approval of the spot bitcoin-ETF by the U.S. financial regulator. Weakening of the dollar and growth of stock indices in the U.S. also played into the hands of the “bulls”.

Buyers are in a hurry to get on the offensive, even though a new phase of growth has begun since November 21.

Our experts note that buyers overcame the recent drop after Binance’s CEO stepped down and needed to hold out for a couple days. BitRiver estimates that this would have allowed buyers to rest a bit. In order to tear down all the “stops” on short positions, up to the $42 thousand mark. If the price stalls under the $38,500 level. Then, most likely, we will stay under it until the beginning of winter.

Bitcoin showed positive dynamics, despite the intermediate correction. The positive mood of market participants remains, supported by the prospects of launching bitcoin-ETF. This gives grounds to expect the continuation of the uptrend in the medium term.

Among the important events this week it is worth highlighting the US GDP for the quarter (the second assessment will be held on Wednesday) and the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve System J. Powell (Friday).

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Bitcoin bulls still control the market. What will happen to bitcoin this week

Our weekly feature. Our experts have analyzed the situation on the market. And told how it may change in the coming week for Bitcoin

Bitcoin trades on November 13 opened with a decline. They were held calmly. During the American session, the price fell to $36,534.

On November 14, the correction continued and intensified after the publication of data on inflation in the United States. And which slowed to a 7-month low. Bitcoin fell in price along with the dollar as sellers reached protective stops on long positions and took out weak players who entered the market around $37k.

Despite the mounting pressure, buyers held their defenses. On November 15, the bitcoin rate recovered to $37,858. The sessional rally was aided by optimistic expectations about the approval of a spot bitcoin ETF.

On November 16, the price corrected by 4.48% to $36,163 amid profit taking on long positions after the rally. The upward momentum faded as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) again delayed a decision on two applications for cryptocurrency-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

The first application was submitted by Brazilian digital asset management company Hashdex. It proposed that the SEC convert its bitcoin futures-based exchange-traded fund, the Hashdex Bitcoin Futures ETF, into a spot bitcoin ETF. The SEC did not have time to review it within 45 days. Therefore, the decision on it was extended until January 1, 2024.

The second application was filed by the American company Grayscale – the largest digital asset manager in the world.

Grayscale expressed its desire to launch an ETF based on Ethereum futures – Grayscale Ethereum Futures Trust.The SEC also failed to review it within 45 days. And so the deadline was extended to January 15, 2024.

On November 17, bitcoin rose 1.25% to $36,613 at the end of the day.The price spent the day in the price range of $35,861 to $36,800 after falling to $35,500 on Thursday. Buyers are trying to keep the price above $35,500.And to then continue the upward movement pending ETF approval.

On cycles, the corrective phase ends on November 21. By timestamps, I have no change.With the bullish momentum fading, bearish sentiment is building. Buyers need to hold the $35k level to continue the rally before halving.

Key events of the past week:

  • US inflation slowed to a 7-month low of 3.2% year-on-year in October, but had no impact on the crypto market.
  • Bitcoin price approached $38k for the first time in a year and a half. This happened amid optimism around the possible approval of a spot bitcoin ETF.
  • The bitcoin rate fell to $35,500 due to profit taking by investors after the price soared.
  • Another delay by the SEC in deciding on applications to launch ETFs for bitcoin and Ethereum. This limited further growth.
  • Bitcoin ended the week slightly lower, with buyers maintaining control of the market.

Last week, bitcoin traded in a range of $34,800 to $37,980.

What’s in store for us this week:

According to the cycles, the corrective phase ends on November 21. According to the time stamps, nothing has changed for me. As the bullish momentum fades, bearish sentiment is building up. Buyers need to hold the $35k level for the price to continue rising before halving.

Although a new growth phase starts on November 21, we expect a breakthrough to $42 th. from buyers on December 8. They should form a sideways trend above $35 th. And that will allow sellers to build up short positions, on which then buyers will “ride” up to $39 th.

On November 22, minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting will be released. Investors will be watching them to understand the details of the FOMC members’ discussion at the last meeting. Decrease in the dollar index after the publication of the minutes may become a trigger for growth of quotations.

In the U.S. this week will celebrate the national holiday – Thanksgiving Day, which will reduce the number of working days. Accordingly, liquidity on the global currency market may be low. And volatility may be high. Most often, when the U.S. has a day off. Then the markets are traded in narrow ranges. Therefore, the price dynamics in the crypto market will be determined by the news around ETFs.

Bitcoin bulls still control the market. There are no signals to sell. Our experts are waiting for the publication of the Fed minutes and renewed activity of buyers.

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What will happen to bitcoin in November

Our monthly feature. Our experts analyzed the state of the market and told about what will happen to bitcoin in the coming month

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $34.4k on Tuesday, October 31. And its price has increased by about 28% over the past month. In the first days of October, the rate of the first cryptocurrency was at $27 thousand. And on October 16, the price briefly reached $30 thousand. And in the morning of October 24, bitcoin sharply added 18% in price, reaching $35 thousand for the first time this year.

We are unlikely to see an altcoin season this year

Our experts count November and December as months. Within the framework of which the cryptocurrency market capitalization can grow to at least $1.6 trillion. And ideally – to $1.8 trillion. Historically, the fourth quarter is successful for the cryptocurrency market, and so far October confirms this pattern.

The lack of fresh liquidity given the tight monetary policy (MPC) is certainly affecting the market. But however, demand for current crypto-oriented ETFs, even before spot bitcoin ETFs are approved, could be the reason for capitalization gains. And growth in the most capitalized assets. Expect BTC prices to rise to the $38k level in November, followed by a move into the $40k-$45k zone by the end of this year.

We are unlikely to see an “altcoin season” this year. And we expect market capitalization growth in November-December primarily due to assets from the top-10. The current macroeconomic situation is not suitable for risk-on strategies. And what we can see from the falling US stock market and the rise in gold. As a consequence, mid-cap crypto assets dependent on venture capital, aggressive investments are still experiencing a significant lack of funds. And they are unlikely to show a multiple price growth in the next month or two, our experts believe.

There should be strong new stimulus in the market this year

Now the situation on the cryptocurrency market is influenced by several factors. This is, first of all, investors’ expectations of approval for the launch of bitcoin ETFs. First, that the current spiral of bitcoin growth was triggered by rumors that the U.S. regulator approved a bitcoin ETF from BlackRock. And while the rumors were quickly denied. But the growth continued – reflecting the general positive mood of crypto investors about the prospects of such an approval. Everyone agrees that it will happen soon.

Secondly, bitcoin is affected by the tense geopolitical environment. And which has also triggered a rise in gold prices. Bitcoin is traditionally seen as “digital gold”. And so partly the capital was directed to diversify investment portfolios and in BTC . In addition, market participants expect bitcoin to rise in the run-up to the halving, which will take place in the spring of 2024.

However, there are also a number of negative factors that are restraining market growth. First of all, it is the expectation of stricter regulation of cryptocurrency exchanges and stablecoin issuers in the United States – one of the largest markets for cryptocurrencies. Therefore, we can expect moderate bitcoin growth in November. But a powerful growth spiral or bull cycle should not be expected yet. For this to happen, new powerful incentives must appear, which will be the catalyst for a new rally. Such a stimulus could be the approval of the launch of ETFs. Or either some signal regarding inflation risks in the U.S. from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). For example, a new stock market stimulus package.

Bitcoin price has overcome a number of key resistances what we expect in November

Since Bitcoin belongs to the class of risky assets. And the crypto market is influenced by the dynamics of the dollar and U.S. macro statistics. Among the key events for November, we can highlight the meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the speech of its chairman Jerome Powell at a press conference on November 1. On November 3, data on the labor market in the U.S. will be of interest. On November 14, the inflation report will be released. Data on consumer prices are extremely important. And as investors are interested in the regulator’s future actions on rates in December due to high inflation.

The recent rally of the BTC/USD pair to $35k was triggered by expectations of bitcoin-ETF approval. And it was supported by inflows into crypto funds and increased open interest in bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). The court also ordered the SEC to review Grayscale’s application for a spot bitcoin-ETF. Therefore, any published news or rumors (confirmed and unconfirmed) on the ETF will have a strong impact on the market.

During the last rally, the bitcoin price overcame a number of key resistances, testing the $35k level. After updating the high, the price has been in a sideways trend for six days. According to experts’ calculations, the downward correction is expected from November 9 to November 21.
Until November 9, buyers have time to move to the area of $36 th. If the price closes below $32.7 th before November 9, it may herald the beginning of correction. The target level for correction is $31.7 th.

Investors should be alerted by the lack of price growth after the Fed meeting on November 1 and Powell’s speech. And again, the less the price falls during the correction. The stronger will be the growth after November 21.

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What will happen to bitcoin in the coming week

Our weekly feature. Our experts analyzed the market situation and told how it may change in the coming week for Bitcoin and the market as a whole.

On Sunday, October 29, bitcoin ( $BTC ) is trading at $34.2k. And its price has increased by 14.5% since the end of the previous week. Our experts have analyzed the situation on the market and assessed the prospects of bitcoin rate movement for the next seven days.

Last week’s analysis and highlights:

  • Bitcoin price rose to $35,280 amid optimism around bitcoin-ETF approval.
  • The SEC has been officially mandated to review Grayscale’s application to launch a spot bitcoin-ETF.
  • SEC Commissioner Hester Pearce stated that the spot bitcoin-ETF should have been approved 5 years ago.
  • The DXY dollar index hit a one-month low but was able to recoup all of its losses.
  • After the rally, the price entered a consolidation between $33k and $35k.

Bitcoin has been trading in a range of $32,400 to $35,280 this week. On Monday, the price rose to $34,741. And on Tuesday, it reached a high of $35,280. This was followed by a correction to $33,390 on Friday.

On October 23, bitcoin rose 10.26% to $33,069. The rise was driven by several factors. First, the DXY dollar index hit a one-month low on the back of falling US government bond yields. Second, a U.S. court upheld the SEC’s review of Grayscale’s application to launch a spot bitcoin ETF. Thirdly, the rally was supported by technical factors – liquidation of short positions worth $161 mln and breakthrough of important resistance levels.

On October 24, the price of bitcoin rose 2.58% to a high of $35,280. Among the growth factors is the decision of the U.S. court obliging the SEC to reconsider Grayscale’s application. As well as news that BlackRock has assigned a ticker to a bitcoin-ETF pending approval. In addition, support came from a weakening dollar. However, by the evening, the dollar index reversed upward, stopping the bitcoin price growth.

On October 25, the price growth slowed to 1.69%, to the level of $34,496. Amid expectations of bitcoin-ETF approval, investors ignored the strengthening of the dollar and the decline in stock indices. Investors’ attention was drawn to the upcoming halving. Bitcoin’s share of the crypto market rose to 51.4%.

On October 26, the price of bitcoin fell by 1% to $34,151. The market was pressured by the strengthening of the dollar and the fall of technology stocks in the United States. The Nasdaq index fell by 2% and the S&P 500 fell by 1.2%. US 10-year bond yields fell to 4.88%. Fears of recession in the US have increased.

On October 27, the BTC/USDt pair fell by 0.76% to $33,892. During the U.S. session, the price declined to $33,390 amid falling stock indices. Since the end of July, the S&P500 index has fallen 10.2% to 4137. This week, US Q3 GDP data beat expectations, showing the economy accelerating at the fastest pace since mid-2021. Despite US Q3 GDP and expectations of a rate hike in December, fears of a recession in the country remain. Inflation continues to worry the Federal Reserve (Fed).

The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index showed that consumer price expenditures rose at the fastest monthly pace since May. But the annual PCE fell slightly in September, renewing concerns about high interest rates.

What’s in store for us next week with Bitcoin

We have a busy week ahead of us. The focus of economic data will be on employment numbers, including the ADP private sector employment report on Wednesday. And jobless claims on Thursday. And non-farm payrolls on Friday.

The market expects current monetary policy to remain in place. And despite the strong economy and tight labor market as inflation slows. But remains above the target level. In addition, the ISM Services report on business activity index in the US and China is expected. Geopolitical events also remain key drivers for traditional assets. Investors will continue to analyze the results of corporate reports.

The BTC/USDt pair is trading above $34k. According to the volume analysis, buying has noticeably decreased since Friday. This is understandable, because the price is in a sideways trend for a long time without continuing the rally. And when the price stands for a long time, the two-day flat starts to get on investors’ nerves. At this time short-term speculators, working on the downside, start to get involved.

By cyclic analysis there are no changes. The growth phase should last until November 9. Conditions are still favorable for growth.

An alarm bell for buyers may be the absence of upward movement after the speech of J. Powell on Wednesday after the FOMC meeting. According to the latest data from CME Group, rates will remain in the range of 5.25-5.50 with a 99.9% probability on Nov. 1 and an 80% probability on Dec. 13.

BitRiver forecasts that the decline phase may last from November 9 to November 21. Closing the day below $32,700 is likely to be a precursor to the beginning of the correction phase. For the correction, $31,700 should be selected as a support target level. Conclusions of our experts: We are waiting for the rate decision, Powell’s speech and the US labor market report.

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Bitcoin rose rapidly to $35 thousand. Why it happened and what will happen to the price

The Bitcoin price rose sharply, having updated the annual maximum. Our experts named the factors influencing the growth of the cryptocurrency’s price and its future goals

On October 24, the Bitcoin exchange rate rose sharply to 35 thousand. And reaching a level that was last recorded in May 2022. A few hours before the growth began, it became known that two major companies – BlackRock and Grayscale. Have come close to approving applications for their own exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for bitcoin. The launch of such ETFs is considered in the crypto community as a catalyst for a new bull cycle in the market.

The price movement came after details of BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF called iShares Bitcoin Trust appeared on a list. Which is maintained by the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC).

Various exchange traded funds (ETFs), including gold, have trillions of dollars in assets under management. In the crypto community, it is commonly believed that even a small percentage of this capital can potentially impact the global crypto market. Several management companies are now awaiting approval of their own bitcoin ETFs from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

If their ETFs are approved, the demand for cryptocurrency will increase: buying shares of the funds implies the delivery of bitcoin as an underlying asset. That is, its direct purchase in the market, affecting the exchange rate. Under the management of BlackRock alone are assets totaling about $9 trillion. According to the assessment of the analytical company Chainalusis, it is North America is the largest cryptocurrency market. And its annual turnover is approximately $1.2 trillion. This amount exceeds 24% of the global annual volume of transactions in cryptocurrency.

Growth Factors

Shortly before the rise, it also became known that the court issued an order. Which requires the SEC to review Grayscale’s application to convert its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a full-fledged spot bitcoin-ETF. Grayscale has been seeking this since 2021, when it first sued the regulator. And challenging its past denials of its application. The amount of assets in its trust exceeds $19 billion.

The growth of the last few days is a consequence of the realization of a complex of factors, our experts believe. On the one hand, a significant buying position was formed in the range of $26-28 th. And that is clearly seen by the growth of open interest in recent weeks.

The change of trend to bullish has taken place ?

Another important factor that added impetus to the growth of bitcoin rate. It was the exit from the narrow trading range, formed since the summer, our experts explain. This led to the liquidation of a significant volume of short positions.

During the day, a sharp rise in the rate of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies provoked a mass forced closing of traders’ marginal positions. And who were unable to add collateral to their orders. More than 70% of them were in “short”, that is, betting on the fall of the market. According to the Coinglass service, which tracks the wallets of major crypto exchanges, positions totaling $400 million were forcibly liquidated from October 23 to October 24.

What will happen next with the BTC price

Judging by the current momentum towards $35 thousand, the price movement is in an active phase. And it is unlikely that the market will start fixing positions in the near future. The realization of the main factor (ETF approval) is still far away, and market participants will continue to form long positions in anticipation of this event.

From the point of view of technical analysis, there was a “void” after the level of $31.5 th. And we quickly covered this distance after the breakdown at the expense of traders. Who took short positions (in particular, those who traded a potential “Head and Shoulders” in the daily range).

“Head and Shoulders” is one of the most famous technical analysis figures indicating a trend reversal. It appears on the chart when a new price peak is drawn after an uptrend, but already below the maximum price. The maximum price peak is seen as a “head”, and the surrounding lower peaks are seen as “shoulders”. When the price crosses the so-called neck line, it often means a change of trend.

Further big players will continue to provoke liquidation of short positions even for those traders who trade with low leverage. The next target our experts call fixing of the price at the level of $36 thousand. In this regard, our experts continue to expect reaching the level of $40 th. by the end of this year.

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The Bitcoin price has seen the lowest volatility in its history since June, when will that change

The Bitcoin market is in a long period of quiet. Our experts have analyzed this situation and made conclusions.

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing one of the least volatile periods in its history. And this raises doubts that noticeable jumps in the price of Bitcoin at all will take place in the future. This is what Glassnode analysts wrote in their weekly market report.

Bitcoin’s realized volatility in various month-to-year intervals has declined significantly this year, reaching multi-year lows. Volatility in the year-to-date range is at levels not seen since December 2016. According to the company’s metrics, this is the fourth such period.

The first time there was such a prolonged lull was during the bear market period in late 2015 and early 2016. The bear market of early 2018 was also accompanied by a lack of significant price swings. And in November of that year, it experienced a 50% collapse. However, this was followed by an upswing in April 2019, when Bitcoin’s price rose from $4k to $14k in three months. A prolonged consolidation also took place after March 2020, when the world adapted to the COVID-19 epidemic. Then there was a brief period of stability at the end of 2022.

Bitcoin volatility chart by Glassnode

Bitcoin volatility chart by Glassnode

The price range separating the seven-day high and low price is only 3.6%. In the history of the market, less than 5% of trading days have ever had a narrower weekly trading range. The 30-day price range is even narrower. Periods of consolidation and narrowing of a price range of this magnitude are extremely rare for Bitcoin.

Weekly lows and highs for the bitcoin price. Source: Glassnode

Weekly lows and highs for the bitcoin price. Source: Glassnode

At the same time, Glassnode notes that the number of long-term Bitcoin holders has reached an all-time high, accounting for about 15.6 million BTC (75% of coins in circulation).

What’s next for the Bitcoin price, our experts’ opinions

In general, the technical picture on the daily charts “looks positive for the “bulls”. According to our experts’ estimates, the beginning of fall will be the starting point for a new growth phase. However, now the cyclic analysis points to the advantage of “bears”. And that in conditions of low volatility constrains the market.

Last week, the BTC/USDt pair declined on the background of strong statistics on US GDP. And which gives the Fed grounds for further tightening of monetary policy in the fight against inflation. This raises concerns for investors trading risky assets.

For now, uncertainty and regulatory risks remain amid tough statements from the head of the SEC. Low trading volumes increase the probability of BTC’s decline to the levels of $27,700 – $27,900. But in case of passing the $31,800 mark, the “bulls” will be able to regain the leading position.

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