Crypto-Upvotes experts explained reason of the last fall of BTC price. And told how it can change in coming days

Last week from November 21 to 27, BTC updated its yearly low. High volatility on crypto market was observed at the beginning of this week. Bitcoin sales intensified on news of the possible bankruptcy of Genesis. Which had $175 million hanging in the collapsed FXT exchange. The BTC/USDt pair was down to $15,400.

BTC price did not go lower. The sales were stopped by a representative of Genesis. He said that company continues to negotiate with creditors and does not plan to declare bankruptcy in the near future. The Wall Street Journal reported that billionaire Justin Sun is considering options for the acquisition of certain FTX assets. This news backdrop formed a nice session bullish trend on the intraday charts. Also, the cryptocurrency market received support from the weakening U.S. dollar in forex. As well as the growth of stock indices in the U.S. before the release of the minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on November 1-2. Bitcoin rose 8.6% to $16,800 in 53 hours.

Buyer activity was halted by news that Genesis had hired a restructuring consultant to explore all options, including bankruptcy.

On Thursday low activity on all world exchanges can be explained by day off in the USA. Markets in the States did not work because of the national Thanksgiving holiday. On Friday, trading was at the level of $16.5 thousand.

As long as there is no negative news, Bitcoin is trying to climb out of the hole Sam Bankman-Fried sent it into. Fear of a possible collapse is keeping investors from active action. Buyers need to pass $17.15k and $18.5k for the FTX exchange collapse to recede into the background.

No factors for BTC growth

After shocks associated with the collapse of FTX, the crypto market is frozen, waiting for new factors for movement. Most likely, there will be no strong changes. Bitcoin now trades at $16.2k, the same dynamics is expected in the next (range $16-16.5k). In the absence of negative news, of course, because there is no positive news to expect.

Level of $18.5k is the key resistance level. Its overcoming will open the way for buyers to $22.5k. Also it will allow many miners to accumulate BTC and not to sell at low prices. Sellers are still set to bring the market down to the $10-12k zone.

The most important event this week is the report on the US labor market in November. As the cryptocurrency market has decoupled from the S&P500. Then it can ignore the price swings of the dollar and the S&P500 after the report is published. If Bitcoin reacts to U.S. statistics. Then again we can look at correlation and stronger correlation with other risky assets.

There will likely be more reports of problems in the crypto industry this week. Even if not as significant and large as with FTX. For example, it is now known that the ecosystem of decentralized finance and stable dUSD coin Ardana. Which is based on the blockchain Cardano, has announced the suspension of project development. Because there is now uncertainty about the funding and timing of this project.

The next negative report is that cryptocurrency lender Matrixport is looking for $100 million in funding. Lead investors have already committed $50 million to the company, but the deal has not yet been finalized. As Matrixport needs to find those who will close the other half of volume.

Conclusion

There are no factors for growth of digital financial assets. Main thing is that there are no new ” Black Swans ” – poorly predictable negative events. In this case, Bitcoin will remain at the level of about $16.5k. However, if there are new reports about difficulties on cryptocurrencies, it can fall to $14-15k.

Bitcoin fell below $18 ths, other cryptocurrencies were also affected. Our Crypto-Upvotes experts pointed out reasons for market decline. And also told about its short-term prospects

In the evening of November 8 Bitcoin rate momentarily fell to a two-year low of $ 17.1 ths. As of November 9, Bitcoin cryptocurrency is trading at $ 17.2 ths, it has fallen in price by 10% over the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin price decline accelerated as the rate of cryptocurrency exchange token FTX (FTT) plummeted almost six-fold, from $19 to $3. Altcoin now trades at $4+ and shows a daily decline of 74%.

The FTT token collapse and the overall situation around the FTX crypto exchange caused the entire crypto market to fall. First, the FTX exchange lost liquidity and its own token price collapsed. And then Binance announced about buying this exchange.

Possible FTX and Binance deal attracted attention from regulators. As well as other reasons that helped Bitcoin collapse

FTX and Binance deal attracted regulators, raising antitrust concerns. Regulators have the power to block major mergers. If they fear it will limit market choice. And there are strict laws against anticompetitive behavior.

Among other factors in a declining market is the tension between China and Taiwan. Because China is a pretty big player in the crypto market. Taiwan makes chips for mining. So this factor is important and pressures cryptocurrency prices down.

Another reason, our expert called the U.S. Congress elections. At the moment, Republicans are expected to win the elections to House of Representatives.

Cryptocurrency market sympathizes, first of all, with the Democratic Party. At least by the volume of investments in their election campaign. Foreign representatives of the cryptoindustry are betting exactly on Democrats.

In addition, all these problems of crypto-industry coincided with the growth of stock indices and weakening of USD.

Crypto market at an early stage of formation of the “bottom” ?

Buyers could not take advantage of the moment to pass the level of $22.5 ths. While USD is under pressure, and stock indices are set to rise. Buyers have a chance to return Bitcoin price to $20 ths. Now we need to wait for volatility to decrease. And exchanges FTX and Binance clarified the situation and their further actions, said our expert.

Our expert added that the current situation, which now presses the crypto market, could be a culmination of decline. Because the current situation in crypto industry may be the initial stage of forming a “bottom”. Because for many market participants such prices are of interest to increase buying volume or to enter this market.

Now there should be a set of factors that will be able to raise the price up. Therefore now the L-shaped recovery, rather than a sharp reversal of a bearish trend is more probable. If the situation with China and Taiwan does not worsen. It is unlikely that anything else can hurt the market more than it already has.

Our Crypto-Upvotes experts have analyzed situation with Bitcoin on crypto market and told how it can change in next month.

Situation on cryptocurrency market completely depends on dynamics of American stock indices. Which collapsed after the speech of head of the Federal Reserve J. Powell at a conference in Jackson Hole. Over last 30 days, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P500 index is 0.77. Accordingly, if the U.S. stock market crashes. Then all risky assets, including cryptocurrency, will also collapse.

Fed is set to take control of inflation and is ready to aggressively raise rates to the detriment of the economy. Fed interest rate futures are pointing to a 75 basis point hike with a probability above 70%.

Since the Jackson Hole symposium, the technical picture for bitcoin has deteriorated. Sellers have broken down trend line from the low of $17,600 (June 18, 2022). They are restrained by support of $18-19 ths. below it the nearest target is near $12.5 ths.

Bitcoin technical analysis shows that situation has worsened

Investors’ attention is now riveted on US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data for August. According to the forecast, they are expected to show an increase in the number of employed people by 300 ths. compared to growth of 528 ths. in July. A strong jobs report will bolster expectations for the Fed to continue its aggressive 75 basis point rate hike. A sharp rate hike is a rally in the dollar and a decline in Bitcoin.

There was also another negative factor which had a negative impact on all risky assets in Asia. Chinese authorities imposed quarantine in Chengdu because of the COVID-19 outbreak. In the past two weeks in Chengdu about 600 patients with COVID-19 and about 300 asymptomatic carriers of coronavirus were identified. 21 million residents will remain in their homes. Businesses will close. Asian markets were followed by declines in European markets. As a result, futures on the S&P500 went down and pulled the pair BTC/USDt.

Also US dollar draws strength from the weakening of the single currency. Because of the energy crisis in Europe, gas prices are rising in Asia and the U.S.. This in turn leads to unwinding inflation in the world. Gas prices in the U.S. and Asia are rising after those in Europe. And the U.S. Fed is fighting inflation by raising rates. Since the euro accounts for about 57% of the dollar index.

Key event in September will be the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting. Investors fear a recession from a tightening of monetary policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve. A collapse in indices will trigger a fall in cryptocurrencies. Because buyers failed to pass the $25,500 level in mid-August, sellers continue to control market. The more the indexes fall, the more bitcoin will fall.

In next year, cryptocurrency market will be turbulent

So far, the situation for the technology sector and cryptocurrencies, which are strongly correlated with IT stocks, is alarming. Jerome Powell recent statements about the possible next key rate hike. And remaining inflation risks gave a signal to investors that the market will be turbulent in the next year. It is worth to be patient or to exit from high-risk assets in order to keep capital.

In our view, Bitcoin will continue to trade between $18K and $21K in September. We believe BTC will not even make it to $25K during September.

Our experts told us what prevents Bitcoin from rising in price. And what the prospects are for it to return to its maximums as it was in fall 2021

In November 2021, 12 years after its appearance, Bitcoin reached a price high of about $69,000. On January 1, 2022, the cryptocurrency was trading at $46,200. In June, its price fell to $17,600, renewing its low from December 2020.

Proponents and critics of cryptocurrencies make various predictions about the direction in which Bitcoin will go next. And what levels it may reach.

Optimistic prognosis

A return to the historical high around $69,000 is hardly possible on the horizon of the next 12 months.

Our experts believe that the fundamental factors for Bitcoin growth. Growth in the cost of money in USA and Europe (an increase in key rates) is necessary. Despite the existing name of BTC “digital gold”, it has not yet become a protective asset. But nothing prevents BTC from becoming such in the future.

With the current volatility of Bitcoin, its price can change by $20,000 in half a year. And if volatility does not increase, the approach to the historical highs will not happen earlier than in a year.

Pessimistic prognosis

Bitcoin follows the rate of U.S. stock exchanges. And this has been observed for a long time. For example, during the growth of indices, the price of bitcoin also grows. And during the fall – it goes down. The downtrend on the U.S. stock market is for a long time. Because the dynamics of inflation in the U.S. promises a further increase in Fed rates. And accordingly, a decrease in the quotations of the technology sector.

Our expert says that according to different estimates, recovery of stock indices in USA. Which have lost more than 10% since the beginning of the year, will take at least three years. That means the same recovery period to record levels can be predicted for Bitcoin. Most likely, the coin will reach above $60,000 only in 2025.

Our experts listed factors affecting current cryptocurrency prices. And discussed possible bearish trend change to bullish and possible Bitcoin growth.

Bitcoin price has fallen 70% from its all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021. In 2022, the value of the first cryptocurrency reached a maximum of $47,500 at end of March and has since fallen to current prices around $20,000. Crypto-Upvotes experts listed reasons for price declines in cryptocurrency market and told when a bull market may start.

Bears are winning now.

Now few people are willing to take risks. And the reason for this is the rising cost of funding after a Federal Reserve rate hike. This also says the financial director and head of trading operations ICB Fund Chen Limin. In his opinion, the situation could be exacerbated by a possible decline in the U.S. economy and turbulence in raw materials markets.

Our experts also believe that most likely current bear market will drag on. Growth of cryptocurrency capitalization may start not earlier than 2024, and before that the market will need to go through “self-cleaning from the most unstable crypto projects. Some institutional investors and lenders have already seen problems with these projects because of falling quotes.

According to our experts, the price of bitcoin now tends towards $10,000. But lower values of the price are also possible. Price of $20,000 proved to be difficult to break through for a complete departure below this price now needed a pause. But everything goes to a soon victory of sellers over buyers.

According to our expert, the reason, which initially contributed to the growth of the market – purchases from institutional investors. Now it has become a main driver of price falls. When Federal Reserve decided to raise rates, funds and lenders left the risky cryptocurrency market to free up funds to support more important positions.

The next rise will require a return of capital back into cryptocurrency markets. And that will only happen after the Fed decides to stimulate market activity again. And that is a long way off, because the Fed will want to make sure that inflation is completely beaten and only after that will it start to ease monetary policy again.

Has Bictoin reached bottom? Will bear market end soon and start bull market?

Now there is a major outflow of bitcoin from exchanges. And this indicates that investors see it as a certain area of interest. And the very withdrawal of assets means moving them to long-term storage. Our experts believe that this is one of the signals that this cycle of decline is coming to an end.

Investors do not trust CEX exchanges because of blockages and restrictions on their exchange accounts. CEX exchanges support different sanctions, they have security problems and many other reasons forcing investors to withdraw assets from exchanges to a more secure place, such as cold wallets. This is already a very good signal for the crypto market, our experts believe.

Crypto-Upvotes experts did an analysis and saw that the balances on exchanges have been systematically decreasing since 2020 and are now at 2018 levels. But the number of non-zero balances is increasing all the time. This fact signals that more and more people are “accepting and trusting” Bitcoin, total number of users and wallets is increasing.

Many Whales have been active since mid-June, when the bitcoin price went down to a $20,000 zone , and smaller investors have been active since the $30,000 mark.

Our experts think it is quite likely that we have already reached bottom or are very close to it. And a loosening of Fed policy could positively motivate markets.
Exactly then the recovery period will begin, the Fed rate will be 3.23%-3.5% by the end of the year. And improvement of situation on crypto market and start of a new growth phase is predicted already in 4Q of this year.

Crypto market is experiencing hard times – the most famous cryptocurrencies have fallen in price two or three times since the beginning of the year and continue to fall rapidly. Large blockchain projects are closing or stopping their development. Experts are predicting a harsh crypto winter. Why is this happening? How long will it last? And is bitcoin worth selling for $20,000 a coin now? Or, on the contrary, is now the best time to buy? Let’s find out together with experts of Crypto-Upvotes team.

Bitcoin in middle March could be bought at $41,000 per coin. Now, three months later, it is trading at around $20,000, having fallen in price by almost half. Fall affected other cryptocurrencies, for example, Ethereum lost almost two-thirds of its value at the same time.

Panic in markets has even affected Stablecoins. Some of these coins have lost that bind. The most famous scandal was the collapse of UST steibcoins, which fell in price a hundred times within a month. As of June 21, their exchange rate was only $0.008. The U.S. authorities even announced their intention to open an investigation into what happened to UST.

Against this background, on June 12, a major platform Celsius temporarily banned users to transfer and withdraw funds (this led to the collapse of the company’s own token by 50%). The next day, the popular cryptocurrency exchange Binance suspended bitcoin withdrawals. And another day later, Coinbase announced that it was laying off 18% of its employees. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong warned of a possible “crypto winter”.

Has crypto winter come?

Experts have different opinions on the state of affairs in the crypto market. “Crypto winter is harsh and the market may face cataclysm in the form of another collapse and slow price recovery, which may take several years,” Crypto-Upvotes experts believe, “After the pandemic, the G7 central banks printed a lot of money to support the economies. And now they don’t know how to contain high inflation due to the energy crisis. The U.S. Fed is fighting inflation by raising rates. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s tightening of monetary policy strengthens the dollar, raises government bond yields and pressures the stock market. Cryptocurrency is a risky asset class, so a sell-off in stocks causes a sell-off in cryptocurrencies.”

Our team’s experts also attribute the collapse to the general economic situation. The inflow of new money into cryptocurrencies is declining amid record inflation in the U.S. and an increase in the key rate by the U.S. Federal Reserve. This, in turn, will affect the availability of credit. “Large investors prefer to invest in cryptocurrencies with money that is easy to get, in an environment where it can be profitably borrowed at any time,” say our experts.

One of experts on Crypto-Upvotes team believes that the current drop is only part of the general cyclicality of cryptocurrency market. “The exchange doesn’t produce money, it redistributes it,” he insists, “there are people who bought bitcoin at $40,000, even at $60,000, now they need to be persuaded to sell it for $20,000. It’s not easy to do, so there’s pressure on new investors to get non-professionals out, and professionals would buy the cryptocurrency at low prices.”

What will happen next? Sell or Buy Now?

Against the backdrop of a sharp drop, many users are getting rid of their crypto savings, even despite the large losses. However, our experts say that this should be done only as a last resort.

Our experts have different views on mid-term prospects for the crypto market. Those who entered bitcoin above $30,000 should first of all prepare themselves emotionally and thank the fate for the valuable experience, from the point of view of the historical context the assets which fell in price during recession sooner or later will grow to new ATH.

Any successful cryptocurrency has a large scope for applications: NFT projects, meta worlds, game projects. As long as there are people who see the sense in it (and there are 300 million people using cryptocurrencies in the world now), it will be impossible to talk about domino effect and the whole market falling to zero.

As for what to do with investments in cryptocurrency – there is no universal advice – say experts of Crypto-Upvotes team. It all depends on the investor’s capital and willingness to take risks. A year ago, some famous billionaires invested a small part of their savings, which they manage, in cryptocurrencies. They might as well buy now, since the losses won’t be sensitive to them, and the gains in the future will be nice. Many of us will not be very upset to lose $100 in a slot machine and everyone will be glad to get a profit of $10,000 or more in a couple of years.

Our experts expect BTC to fall to $8000

People are used to making predictions based on experience. We remember that in the spring of 2021 some experts started talking about the beginning of crypto winter. At that time, the market held steady, and after that it showed record growth. Which means that now there are several options for future.

Some assure that we are in the state of crypto winter right now. While others believe that the events happening before our eyes are just the beginning of a big rally, in which there will be no winners.

Let’s look at both positions and draw some conclusions. The first ones refer to the mind of cryptocurrency holders and the financial cushion of the Whales. Argument is as follows: a huge number of people bought Bitcoin and Ether at the very tops. Undoubtedly, some of the unlucky investors will start to get rid of their savings, which has been happening in recent days. But most do not want to lose their money, so will hold positions despite the further decline of the rate. Also worth paying attention to the actions of Whales (wallets with more than 10 000 BTC). These guys have not changed their tactics lately, slowly accumulating large amounts. It turns out that for some, cheap cryptocurrency is the way to ruin, while the big fish are looking to make money by buying up coins at low cost.

As a zone of support for collapse of Bitcoin was the mark of $20,000, but the price has fallen below $19,000. And further there are no short positions, which means the price will fall further.

In this regard, our experts have estimated that BTC might fall to $8,000 very soon. But we should not forget that there are many people who keep their money in Ether, and in the next few days the rate can go down to $800 and then to $400. Bitcoin storm grows stronger, but this is a general trend for the market, but Ethereum has also a number of internal problems. To begin with, the developers’ uncertain position on timing a move to PoS. Merger has been postponed so often that many have already stopped believing Vitalik Buterin words. Many investors no longer believe that Ether and Bitcoin can escape cold embrace of crypto winter.