Investors fear recession. What will happen to Bitcoin in September opinions of our Crypto-Upvotes experts

Our Crypto-Upvotes experts have analyzed situation with Bitcoin on crypto market and told how it can change in next month.

Situation on cryptocurrency market completely depends on dynamics of American stock indices. Which collapsed after the speech of head of the Federal Reserve J. Powell at a conference in Jackson Hole. Over last 30 days, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P500 index is 0.77. Accordingly, if the U.S. stock market crashes. Then all risky assets, including cryptocurrency, will also collapse.

Fed is set to take control of inflation and is ready to aggressively raise rates to the detriment of the economy. Fed interest rate futures are pointing to a 75 basis point hike with a probability above 70%.

Since the Jackson Hole symposium, the technical picture for bitcoin has deteriorated. Sellers have broken down trend line from the low of $17,600 (June 18, 2022). They are restrained by support of $18-19 ths. below it the nearest target is near $12.5 ths.

Bitcoin technical analysis shows that situation has worsened

Investors’ attention is now riveted on US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data for August. According to the forecast, they are expected to show an increase in the number of employed people by 300 ths. compared to growth of 528 ths. in July. A strong jobs report will bolster expectations for the Fed to continue its aggressive 75 basis point rate hike. A sharp rate hike is a rally in the dollar and a decline in Bitcoin.

There was also another negative factor which had a negative impact on all risky assets in Asia. Chinese authorities imposed quarantine in Chengdu because of the COVID-19 outbreak. In the past two weeks in Chengdu about 600 patients with COVID-19 and about 300 asymptomatic carriers of coronavirus were identified. 21 million residents will remain in their homes. Businesses will close. Asian markets were followed by declines in European markets. As a result, futures on the S&P500 went down and pulled the pair BTC/USDt.

Also US dollar draws strength from the weakening of the single currency. Because of the energy crisis in Europe, gas prices are rising in Asia and the U.S.. This in turn leads to unwinding inflation in the world. Gas prices in the U.S. and Asia are rising after those in Europe. And the U.S. Fed is fighting inflation by raising rates. Since the euro accounts for about 57% of the dollar index.

Key event in September will be the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting. Investors fear a recession from a tightening of monetary policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve. A collapse in indices will trigger a fall in cryptocurrencies. Because buyers failed to pass the $25,500 level in mid-August, sellers continue to control market. The more the indexes fall, the more bitcoin will fall.

In next year, cryptocurrency market will be turbulent

So far, the situation for the technology sector and cryptocurrencies, which are strongly correlated with IT stocks, is alarming. Jerome Powell recent statements about the possible next key rate hike. And remaining inflation risks gave a signal to investors that the market will be turbulent in the next year. It is worth to be patient or to exit from high-risk assets in order to keep capital.

In our view, Bitcoin will continue to trade between $18K and $21K in September. We believe BTC will not even make it to $25K during September.

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Hotels in Maldives and Thailand began to accept payments in Bitcoin and Ethereum, review by our experts Crypto-Upvotes

Resorts in Soneva hotel chain can now be paid for in Bitcoin or Ethereum, review by our experts Crypto-Upvotes

Resort chain Soneva hotels in Thailand and the Maldives are now accepting payments in Bitcoin and Ethereum. Cryptocurrency payment provider TripleA and payment platform Pomelo Pay are helping to make payments.

The cryptocurrency payment option will be available at Soneva Fushi hotels. As well as Soneva Jani and Soneva in Aqua in Maldives. And in Soneva Kiri in Thailand. Also for Bitcoin and Ethereum it is now possible to buy real estate in the Maldives at Soneva Villa Ownership.

The resort network can directly book rooms. And pay with cryptocurrency through a secure link. In addition, you can use a QR code to pay in cryptocurrency. Soneva adds that while any payments made using Bitcoin or Ethereum are 100 per cent non-refundable, credits can apply in line with its flexible cancellation policy.

“At Soneva, we have always endeavoured to be a pioneer in the hospitality industry, hence accepting cryptocurrencies as a payment method is another example of enabling our international guests to easily make payments from anywhere in the world,” said Bruce Bromley, chief financial officer, and deputy CEO of Soneva.

 

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When Bitcoin will return to an historical maximum opinion of our Crypto-Upvotes experts

Our experts told us what prevents Bitcoin from rising in price. And what the prospects are for it to return to its maximums as it was in fall 2021

In November 2021, 12 years after its appearance, Bitcoin reached a price high of about $69,000. On January 1, 2022, the cryptocurrency was trading at $46,200. In June, its price fell to $17,600, renewing its low from December 2020.

Proponents and critics of cryptocurrencies make various predictions about the direction in which Bitcoin will go next. And what levels it may reach.

Optimistic prognosis

A return to the historical high around $69,000 is hardly possible on the horizon of the next 12 months.

Our experts believe that the fundamental factors for Bitcoin growth. Growth in the cost of money in USA and Europe (an increase in key rates) is necessary. Despite the existing name of BTC “digital gold”, it has not yet become a protective asset. But nothing prevents BTC from becoming such in the future.

With the current volatility of Bitcoin, its price can change by $20,000 in half a year. And if volatility does not increase, the approach to the historical highs will not happen earlier than in a year.

Pessimistic prognosis

Bitcoin follows the rate of U.S. stock exchanges. And this has been observed for a long time. For example, during the growth of indices, the price of bitcoin also grows. And during the fall – it goes down. The downtrend on the U.S. stock market is for a long time. Because the dynamics of inflation in the U.S. promises a further increase in Fed rates. And accordingly, a decrease in the quotations of the technology sector.

Our expert says that according to different estimates, recovery of stock indices in USA. Which have lost more than 10% since the beginning of the year, will take at least three years. That means the same recovery period to record levels can be predicted for Bitcoin. Most likely, the coin will reach above $60,000 only in 2025.

 

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Bitcoin has hit bottom ? When Bitcoin price will return to maximum – experts Crypto-Upvotes

Our experts listed factors affecting current cryptocurrency prices. And discussed possible bearish trend change to bullish and possible Bitcoin growth.

Bitcoin price has fallen 70% from its all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021. In 2022, the value of the first cryptocurrency reached a maximum of $47,500 at end of March and has since fallen to current prices around $20,000. Crypto-Upvotes experts listed reasons for price declines in cryptocurrency market and told when a bull market may start.

Bears are winning now.

Now few people are willing to take risks. And the reason for this is the rising cost of funding after a Federal Reserve rate hike. This also says the financial director and head of trading operations ICB Fund Chen Limin. In his opinion, the situation could be exacerbated by a possible decline in the U.S. economy and turbulence in raw materials markets.

Our experts also believe that most likely current bear market will drag on. Growth of cryptocurrency capitalization may start not earlier than 2024, and before that the market will need to go through “self-cleaning from the most unstable crypto projects. Some institutional investors and lenders have already seen problems with these projects because of falling quotes.

According to our experts, the price of bitcoin now tends towards $10,000. But lower values of the price are also possible. Price of $20,000 proved to be difficult to break through for a complete departure below this price now needed a pause. But everything goes to a soon victory of sellers over buyers.

According to our expert, the reason, which initially contributed to the growth of the market – purchases from institutional investors. Now it has become a main driver of price falls. When Federal Reserve decided to raise rates, funds and lenders left the risky cryptocurrency market to free up funds to support more important positions.

The next rise will require a return of capital back into cryptocurrency markets. And that will only happen after the Fed decides to stimulate market activity again. And that is a long way off, because the Fed will want to make sure that inflation is completely beaten and only after that will it start to ease monetary policy again.

Has Bictoin reached bottom? Will bear market end soon and start bull market?

Now there is a major outflow of bitcoin from exchanges. And this indicates that investors see it as a certain area of interest. And the very withdrawal of assets means moving them to long-term storage. Our experts believe that this is one of the signals that this cycle of decline is coming to an end.

Investors do not trust CEX exchanges because of blockages and restrictions on their exchange accounts. CEX exchanges support different sanctions, they have security problems and many other reasons forcing investors to withdraw assets from exchanges to a more secure place, such as cold wallets. This is already a very good signal for the crypto market, our experts believe.

Crypto-Upvotes experts did an analysis and saw that the balances on exchanges have been systematically decreasing since 2020 and are now at 2018 levels. But the number of non-zero balances is increasing all the time. This fact signals that more and more people are “accepting and trusting” Bitcoin, total number of users and wallets is increasing.

Many Whales have been active since mid-June, when the bitcoin price went down to a $20,000 zone , and smaller investors have been active since the $30,000 mark.

Our experts think it is quite likely that we have already reached bottom or are very close to it. And a loosening of Fed policy could positively motivate markets.
Exactly then the recovery period will begin, the Fed rate will be 3.23%-3.5% by the end of the year. And improvement of situation on crypto market and start of a new growth phase is predicted already in 4Q of this year.

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