What events in the next month may lead to changes in the price of Bitcoin. And to what levels it can rise or fall
First Cryptocurrency has continued to trade in a relatively narrow range since mid-June 2022. Since then, the rate of BTC fell to a low of $17.6 ths. And at its peak, it reached $25.2 ths. Most of the time, cryptocurrency is near the mark of $20 ths.
Over the past month, the Bitcoin price range has become even narrower. Maximum value of the rate for the last 30 days reached $20.4 ths (October 6). The rate of Bitcoin fell to a minimum on the day of publication of the U.S. inflation data for September. At that time the price of BTC fell to $18.3 ths, but quickly recovered.
As of Oct. 24, the leading cryptocurrency is trading around $19,200, according to CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin has a market capitalization of $371 billion, with a daily trading volume of $28.8 billion. The asset’s share of the cryptocurrency market is 38.3%.
U.S. congressional elections and macroeconomics could affect BTC price
The U.S. Congressional elections are due in November, our Crypto-Upvotes experts note. Cryptocurrency and traditional markets are generally strong in the run-up to this election. However, our experts say it’s not quite right to expect the same rate behavior as it did after the last election. The previous congressional elections were held in early November 2020. The cryptocurrency market was in a bull market. And since then, Bitcoin has gone from $15k to $61k by April 2021.
But today both the stock market and the cryptocurrency market are still bearish. And the volatility in the cryptocurrency market is quite low. Therefore, no serious rally is expected from BTC. In case it fails to rise above $23k, the downward pressure will continue.
The bearish pressure is amplified by global macroeconomic weakness combined with the popularity of short ETFs on Bitcoin. This raises concerns about whether this time there will be a repeat of November 2018, when Bitcoin collapsed from $6k to $3k also after a long period of consolidation and low volatility.
Investors, primarily institutional investors, as in the stock market, always assess the situation in terms of the reaction of the Federal Reserve (Fed). As well as on macroeconomic data on the United States. Therefore, the price of BTC may react to further Fed Funds rate hikes.
Also, among important events for Bitcoin and the entire crypto market in November, our expert called the TOKEN2049 conference. It will be held from November 9 to 10 in London. Our expert noted that it will be attended by such well-known figures in the cryptocurrency community as Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz, Tezos co-founder Kathleen Breitman and Blockchain.com CEO Peter Smith.
There is hope that the rate will soon stop rising by 75 bps. (0,75%)
At least a “slight hope” that the rate will soon stop rising by 75 bps (0.75%) at the end of each meeting. . As well as reduction at least to 0.25% or suspension of increases. All this will lead to the development of a medium-term trend for growth i Bitcoin rate.
In this case, psychologically important level of $20K may be overcome. This will allow the bulls to rush to the levels of $24K and $28.3K in the coming month. More rapid growth looks too optimistic variant so far. But it may lead to $32 thousand and $36.8 ths, says our expert.
It’s also worth paying attention to the following levels in the price of BTC when it grows: $20.5 ths, then $22.8 ths. Reaching the same Bitcoin mark at $25 K will already mean the change of current bearish trend.
Signals for continuing a bear market trend
Signal to continue bear market could be the level of $16 K. Then we should pay attention to the level of $14 K, and, finally, $10 K.
In the coming month, Bitcoin may show a decline. First, price of the first cryptocurrency may fall to around $18 K, and later to the area of $15 K – $16 K. Our expert noted that it will be possible if Fed rate will continue to rise.