Our weekly feature on Bitcoin. Our experts analyzed the market situation and told how it may change this week

The week that ended on December 10 was a good week for bitcoin. And for investors who prefer long positions, it was extremely favorable. At the beginning of the week bitcoin crossed the $40 thousand mark and, apparently, managed to accumulate strength and consolidate above this level. By the weekend bitcoin came close to the next psychological boundary of $45 thousand, but the growth rate slowed down. Bitcoin will have to force this mark during the week of December 11-17. According to many prerequisites, the first cryptocurrency will manage to do it and get a foothold above $45 thousand.

The main factors in the growth of the crypto market remain expectations that the SEC will soon approve the launch of bitcoin-ETF. And flows of institutional capital will flow into cryptocurrency.

The state of the U.S. economy also gives a strong impetus to the crypto market. Namely, the expectation of a slowdown in inflation in the United States and the beginning of the period of reduction of the key rate by the Federal Reserve Service (FRS). At first glance, the positive dynamics in the Fed’s fight against inflation entails risks of recession in the U.S. economy. A recession along with inflation above the 2% target threatens investors with asset depreciation. This encourages them to hedge risks and move some capital into protective assets. For example, gold, which has shown growth in recent weeks. Or cryptocurrencies, which, although highly volatile, can give a high ROI (return on investment).

Main events of this week

This week, the main attention of cryptocurrency market participants, as well as the stock market, will be focused on the key events of the U.S. economy.

On December 12, the U.S. Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics will release data on inflation in November 2023. The US CPI is expected to rise slightly from October’s level. But the Core CPI (Core CPI), which reveals the trend of hidden inflation. On the contrary, it will slow down year-on-year. The PPI and retail sales data will also be important for the market.

But the main event of the week will undoubtedly be the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve on December 12-13 on the key rate. And the following press conference of the Fed’s head Jerome Powell. Market participants do not expect the key rate to change. But high hopes are pinned on Powell’s speech: they are waiting for him to signal the US Fed’s readiness to start reducing the key rate in 2024. And that should stimulate economic growth and investors’ interest in risky assets, which include cryptocurrencies.

The crypto market may be feverish

In the first half of the week, we can expect high bitcoin volatility on the back of the Fed meeting and the publication of inflation data. The crypto market can be feverish – from sharp rises on expectations of the Fed’s decision to a sudden correction right after Powell’s speech. Support levels for bitcoin will be $41-42 thousand, and resistance – $48 thousand.

By the end of the week bitcoin will show how strong the bulls are in the crypto market. And whether they will be able to gather their strength to confidently consolidate above $45 thousand. Given that the deadline for the publication of the SEC decision on applications for the launch of bitcoin – ETF is in early January 2024. It can be expected that in the next month, the upward trend in the cryptocurrency market will continue. Our experts note that while crypto market participants have not received a final answer to the ETF question, they will continue to hope for a quick launch of the exchange traded fund. And their hopes will serve as a basis for the growth of bitcoin price.

Bitcoin rate for the first time since the spring of 2022 reached $42 thousand. Our experts told ” about the factors affecting its growth, and the future prospects of cryptomarket

On Monday, December 4, bitcoin (BTC) crossed the $42,000 mark, rising more than 11% overnight and renewing the annual high set earlier. The last time bitcoin traded above $42,000 was in April 2022. And before the collapse of the Terra ecosystem triggered a massive collapse of the cryptomarket.

Bitcoin began its rapid growth in mid-October amid news about the possible approval by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the first spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) for bitcoin. In less than a month, the rate of the first cryptocurrency rose by almost $10 thousand.

Several major investment firms, including BlackRock and Fidelity Investments, are now awaiting SEC approval of their own bitcoin ETFs. The launch of such ETFs is considered by the crypto community to be the catalyst for a new bull cycle in the market. BlackRock alone has assets under management totaling about $9 trillion. According to an estimate by the analytical company Chainalysis, North America is the largest cryptocurrency market, with an annual turnover of about $1.2 trillion.

A few fundamental reasons for the rise of BTC

There are several fundamental reasons for the current growth of bitcoin: firstly, market participants are pricing in a ceiling on monetary tightening. And that can be clearly seen in the significant rise in US stock markets and bond values. If [global] central banks, such as the Fed, have completed tightening. Then in the future, fresh liquidity could come to many markets, including cryptocurrencies.

Second, expectations of spot ETF launches are still having a bullish impact. As investors reasonably expect the number and volume of institutional investors in cryptocurrency to increase after the approval and launch of bitcoin ETFs.

Third, from a cyclical perspective, the fourth quarter is a historically successful quarter for the cryptocurrency market. And the cyclicality continues this year, allowing investors to expect a positive year-end close.

Bitcoin has features of both gold and stocks

The bitcoin price is being pushed up by the same factors that contribute to the growth of gold. This is a decline in inflation rates and fears of recession in the U.S. economy. As well as the cheapening dollar and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

These factors are driving stock markets higher, as well as shifting some capital into safe haven assets like gold. Bitcoin has features of both gold and stocks, so investors are eager to include it in their investment portfolios for diversification. And to hedge the risks associated with depreciation and a possible recession.

In addition, the crypto market is expecting a soon approval of the bitcoin-ETF by the SEC and a new bull cycle, which traditionally accompanies the halving of the bitcoin network.

In the next month we can expect bitcoin to force the level of $45 thousand. Bitcoin growth will push altcoins as well. Ethereum (ETH), for example, has a chance to rise to $2350 by the end of December.

Whether cryptocurrencies will be able to gain a foothold above these levels depends largely on what decision on ETFs will be made by the SEC in January. When the deadline to publish the final decision on several applications approaches. If the decision is positive, it will serve as a strong trigger for further growth. If it is negative, we can expect a pullback to the values of late November.

Our experts note that we should not forget about the approaching halving. Its effect will support bitcoin and is unlikely to let it go below $38 thousand even if regulators refuse to approve bitcoin-ETF in the United States.

Our experts analyzed the state of the market and talked about how bitcoin will behave in December 2023

In November, bitcoin rose by 11% against the dollar. The main driver of the upward dynamics was positive expectations of the soon approval of the spot bitcoin-ETF by the US financial regulator. Additional support for the crypto market was provided by the weakening of the dollar. And the growth of stock indices in the U.S. in anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve rate at the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on December 13.

In the market remains positive mood of market participants. The technical picture on the daily timeframe is also favorable for the continuation of the upward movement of the pair BTC/USD in the medium term before halving.

Halving is a planned reduction in the number of newly issued bitcoins (BTC). Which are created and distributed to miners who perform verification and validation of transactions on the network. This is embedded in the bitcoin program code to ensure that the total number of coins on the network never exceeds 21 million units. The next bitcoin halving is expected in April 2024.

Important events that the markets will focus on include U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth data for the last quarter and personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price information for the third quarter. The market is actively watching inflation as it is linked to expectations of further decisions by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

We expect bullish dynamics

The digital asset market has historically tended to rise in December. Given fundamental factors. Such as the prospect of spot  bitcoin ETF approvals in early 2024. And the approaching halving, the growing number of institutional investors and the sustainability of market capitalization. Our experts expect bullish momentum in December. As they did throughout the fourth quarter before that.

Our expectations for November were to reach the level of $38 thousand, and bitcoin succeeded to grow to this level at the end of the month. Because of this, the $40-45k zone expected since the beginning of the year remains the target zone for December. And our experts expect BTC to grow to these levels, as well as to increase the capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market to $1.6-1.8 trillion.

Now the main resistance level for bitcoin is around $40 thousand. It can be expected that the cryptocurrency will overcome this psychological mark by mid-December. The optimistic scenario assumes bitcoin growth to $45 thousand by the end of the year and continued growth at a quiet pace to $55 thousand until halving in the bitcoin network in the spring of 2024.

Our weekly feature. Our experts analyzed the market situation and told how it may change for bitcoin this week

On Sunday, November 26, bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $37.7k, its price up 3% since the end of the previous week.

Key events of the past week:

• News of a $4.3 billion fine for crypto exchange Binance and the resignation of the head of Binance. The market had mixed reactions to the news.
• The expectation of the soon approval of bitcoin-ETF in the US was the main factor of investor optimism and BTC price growth.
• Weakening of the US dollar. Had a supporting effect on the bitcoin price.
• The growth of stock indices in the U.S. had a positive impact on the bitcoin price dynamics.

Last week, bitcoin traded in a range of $35,632 to $38,414.

On November 20, bitcoin closed at $37,448 after a slight increase of 0.24%. On November 21 and 22, the price plummeted to $35,632 amid news of a $4.3 billion fine for Binance and the resignation of Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao. However, by the end of Wednesday, November 22, bitcoin recovered its losses and rose by 4.66% to close at $37,408. Thursday and Friday were relatively quiet with slight price fluctuations around $37,500.

November 24 saw a 1.12% rise with a high of $38,414. It became the highest value in the last 18 months. Buyers failed to consolidate at these high levels. Almost immediately after the high was updated, there was a correction to $37,550. Nevertheless, bitcoin managed to stabilize above $37,500, maintaining most of the gained growth. At the end of the week bitcoin shows positive dynamics with growth of 0.84%.

The main driver of the upward dynamics were positive expectations of the soon approval of the spot bitcoin-ETF by the U.S. financial regulator. Weakening of the dollar and growth of stock indices in the U.S. also played into the hands of the “bulls”.

Buyers are in a hurry to get on the offensive, even though a new phase of growth has begun since November 21.

Our experts note that buyers overcame the recent drop after Binance’s CEO stepped down and needed to hold out for a couple days. BitRiver estimates that this would have allowed buyers to rest a bit. In order to tear down all the “stops” on short positions, up to the $42 thousand mark. If the price stalls under the $38,500 level. Then, most likely, we will stay under it until the beginning of winter.

Bitcoin showed positive dynamics, despite the intermediate correction. The positive mood of market participants remains, supported by the prospects of launching bitcoin-ETF. This gives grounds to expect the continuation of the uptrend in the medium term.

Among the important events this week it is worth highlighting the US GDP for the quarter (the second assessment will be held on Wednesday) and the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve System J. Powell (Friday).

Our experts talked about the factors affecting the growth of the crypto market. And predicted the further movement of Bitcoin prices

The bitcoin (BTC) exchange rate rose more than 5% on November 9, approaching the $38,000 mark when paired with the Tether USD (USDT) stablecoin on the Binance exchange. And this is the maximum value of the exchange rate since May 2022.

A positive trigger for the price growth was the news that. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) began negotiations with Grayscale on the launch of its bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). And a report from Bloomberg analysts that the regulator has an eight-day window open for possible ETF approval from 12 other companies. And which had previously filed applications for the commission’s review.

The cryptocurrency market has seen increased volatility recently amid expectations of approval of applications to launch exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Investors believe that the entry of ETFs from major players such as BlackRock or Fidelity into the market will lead to a further increase in the value of bitcoin.

The regulator, represented by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), is taking a cautious stance and postponing decisions on applications to launch ETFs. And which have already filed 12 management companies. Experts believe that the most likely scenario is the simultaneous approval of several applications to launch a bitcoin ETF at once in early 2024, our experts believe.

Buyers managed to test the resistance zone $36,200 – $36,500 before November 9. According to the cyclic analysis, they will be vulnerable from November 9 through November 21. As all key levels are passed, now it is necessary to hold current positions till the third decade of the month. In order to get to $42 thousand by the new year.

In the near future, the crypto market will remain highly uncertain due to the potential launch of ETFs. This will contribute to the persistence of increased risks and volatility.

Fear of lost profits

The reason for bitcoin’s meteoric rise is investors’ reluctance to miss out on “a wave of growth that could hit the crypto industry” if the instrument is actually approved.

In October, even fake news about a spot bitcoin-ETF fueled the market. As a result, bitcoin managed to consolidate above the psychological level of $30 thousand and went to update local highs.

Many participants of the cryptocommunity believe that this instrument will attract trillions of dollars of investments into the crypto-industry. But earlier, market participants pinned similar hopes on futures and cryptocurrency options. Unfortunately, the launch of the tools did not lead to the expected result, our experts note.

As for the further goals of bitcoin, everything will depend on the news background. If the bitcoin price will be fueled by rumors of ETF approval. In the near future, investors will be able to see a “storm” of $40 thousand. In the absence of positive “bubble of expectations may burst” and bitcoin will go into correction, probably in the neighborhood of $30 thousand, our expert warns.

How long will the Bitcoin growth last

Judging by technical analysis and market structure. And also taking into account the fundamental factors, we can say that bitcoin is in an important phase of its cycle. And is preparing for a sharp upward movement.

The big players in the market will manipulate the price, and the expected approval of ETFs. As well as the “general euphoria about it” may lead to overpriced purchases. In the coming year, the bitcoin rate movement will occur in the price corridor of $25-36 thousand. And “a real bull market with bitcoin growth and altcoins taking off 10-20 times” should only be expected in a year and a half.

At the moment, our experts recommend to buy promising altcoins. And trade them between levels in order to accumulate positions until the target event occurs – the very market upsurge. But of course local drawdowns are possible, but the potential profit on individual positions can be more than 1000%.

Our experts analyzed the market situation and told how it may change in the coming week for Bitcoin and the market as a whole

• 5 important events in the crypto market affecting the bitcoin rate for the week from October 30 to November 3:
• The US Federal Reserve meeting on November 1, which decided to keep the interest rate unchanged. This caused an increase in risk appetite.
• Fed chief Jerome Powell’s statements about a possible slowdown in the pace of future rate hikes. This also put pressure on the dollar and supported the bitcoin price.
• Investor expectations for the imminent approval of a spot bitcoin-ETF fueled interest in bitcoin earlier in the week.
• The publication of weak US labor market data on Friday reinforced expectations of a slowdown in Fed policy tightening.
• The price failed to consolidate above $35k.

Last week bitcoin traded in the range of $34-36 thousand. On October 30, the price of BTC fell to $34,474, but remained in a horizontal trend around $34,300. On October 31, the price rose slightly to $34,639, continuing to consolidate in anticipation of the US Federal Reserve results.

Detailed analysis of last week and conclusions

On November 1, there was a sharp rise to $35,421 after the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting. The growth was caused by investor optimism after the Fed head’s statements about a possible slowdown in rate hikes.

On November 2, the price rose to a weekly high of $35,984, from which the correction began. It was aided by a decline in optimism about the imminent approval of a spot bitcoin-ETF. Amid the failed offensive, the price fell to $34,300.

On November 3, at the end of the day, bitcoin fell in price by 0.64% to $34716. In general, trading was calm, without sharp bursts of volatility.

During the first half of the day, there was a gradual decline in cryptocurrency quotes. The rate fell to the level of $34,120, followed by a slight recovery.

Some support for the market was provided by the data on the situation in the U.S. labor market, published at the U.S. session. The indicators turned out to be weaker than market expectations. In particular, the number of new jobs for October amounted to 150 thousand instead of the expected 180 thousand. The previous figure was revised to 297 thousand from 336 thousand. And the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% from 3.8%, with expectations of 3.8%. And average hourly earnings rose 0.2%, compared with a 0.2% increase in the previous month, and a forecast of 0.3%.

Such data reinforced investor expectations that the US Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its monetary tightening cycle. This provided support for risky assets. Since the bitcoin rally was at the end of October. The reaction to the weakening dollar and the growth of stock indices was weak. The euphoria from expectations of spot ETF approval is fading.

What will happen to the bitcoin price in the coming days

Buyers showed themselves well, as they used the provided time window. And to carry the shorts above $35,200 and to get as close as possible to the level of $36 th. External conditions remain favorable for the upward movement. Only according to the calculated cycles is approaching the correction phase with a target of $33 thousand. And it may last from November 9 through November 21. The smaller the correction will be, the higher the probability of growth up to $42 th.

Temporary resistance is the zone of $35,000 – $35,150. Taking into account the weakness of the dollar and the weekly growth of stock indices. The buyers may have time to check the stops behind the level of $36 th. And it is logical, as the truncated formation is formed on the daily timeframe.

Thus, bitcoin demonstrated moderately positive dynamics this week. Our experts note that the key levels of the corridor remain $34 thousand and $36 thousand. To enter the positive zone, it is necessary to confidently overcome the resistance at $36 thousand. Buyers are better to go on the defensive and gain strength for the end of November: efforts will be required to pass new resistances.

Our experts analyzed the state of the market and told us what will happen to the Bitcoin exchange rate in the coming month

October is going to be an interesting period for Bitcoin, which will largely determine further developments in the entire market.

The BTC market continues to stabilize after several events that affected its price in recent months. Bitcoin’s price has reached a one-year low. And at the same time falling by 13% from the July high, which was $31.5 thousand. The fall is due to the accumulation of funds by institutional investors. And that led to a decrease in the supply of BTC on exchanges. Now only 5.83% of the total amount of BTC is in the wallets of crypto exchanges.

Historical analysis shows that a decrease in bitcoin supply on exchanges is often associated with an increase in its price. However, despite this, the opposite trend was observed in September.

Grayscale has won a lawsuit against the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) over the conversion of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a spot bitcoin-ETF. This has led to large purchases of BTC by institutional investors. And most of whom are storing assets in cold wallets to increase the safety of their funds. This has also contributed to a reduction in the supply of BTC on exchanges.

The bearish mood in the bitcoin market led to a decrease in trading activity. And the daily trading volume reached a low. However, if the market sentiment changes to bullish, the price of bitcoin, and with it the rest of the cryptocurrencies, will start to rise.

Data from In/Out of Money Around Price (IOMAP) shows that if bitcoin overcomes the resistance at $28.5 thousand, it could stimulate the price to rise to $28.5 thousand. If trading volumes increase significantly, bitcoin’s next rally could exceed this level.

However, if the price drops below $25k, the forecast may be canceled and bearish sentiment may increase.

Hopes for an upward price movement are high

Historically, October is one of the strongest months for VTS. And in 69% of cases the first cryptocurrency grew. The situation in altcoins is a bit different. Many alternative coins have “rewritten the bottom” and continue to trade with about 90% discount. If bitcoin manages to consolidate above the zone outlined above, altcoins could return to early July levels. If Bitcoin manages to consolidate above the zone.

And which has been outlined above, altcoins could return to early July levels. Some coins could go higher. But such a prospect is better to assess individually for each project.

The last few months with a shortage of fresh liquidity. As well as fundamental factors that can return interest in digital assets, the positioning of participants on BTC does not change. And large players continue to “hold” (hold in anticipation of growth), while small players continue to lose money on derivatives inside the price range.

This directly affects the lack of strong price movements. And so far, it is very difficult to say for sure what exactly will be the trigger for a surge in volatility. However, our experts note that such a long sideways (“flat”) formation on BTC will definitely lead to a price explosion in the future.

Our experts named the reasons for the large “queue” of transactions in BTC network. And described the ways to solve this problem, as well as its impact on the price of the leading digital asset.

At the beginning of May, the daily number of transactions in Bitcoin network renewed its historical maximum at 685 thousand. This happened amid a surge of activity associated with the issue of bitcoin-NFT or Ordinals.

The ability to issue tokens on the Bitcoin network appeared in late January. And since then more than 4.69 million of them were created. More than 789 BTC ($21.9 million) were spent as commissions.

As of May 8, there are still more than 455,000 transactions waiting to be confirmed in the first cryptocurrency blockchain. Which is a record high. Experts told what the formation of such a queue could lead to.

Reasons and solutions

Queuing is a fairly typical situation for PoW blockchains. And many factors can affect it, but the main reason is always associated with a sharp increase in interest in intra-network transfers.

Our experts say that the problem develops further very quickly. As the queue generates an even bigger queue, similar to the traffic jams that form from traffic jams when people try to avoid them. In blockchains, users start to raise fees. And all new transactions get stuck, while old ones may stay in the mempool (transaction queue, mempool) for weeks until the load is reduced.

There is no direct solution to this situation, says our expert. In general, the “scalability problem” is the main reason to criticize the consensus mechanism Proof-of-Work (PoW), on which Bitcoin works. But our expert noted that there are local ways around this problem. For example, such as “replace-by-fee” or “child-pays-for-parent” mechanisms.

“Replace-by-fee” allows you to directly change the amount of commission in a transaction already sent to the waiting list. But very few wallets support this feature. And to enable it, it should have been provided for in advance: the transaction should have been sent with the parameter enabled. Which allows you to replace the commission already after the transaction has been sent.

The “child-pays-for-parent” function implies sending a new transaction from a wallet. To which the change from the previous transaction with the knowingly overrated commission must come. This is such that it would be profitable for miners to process two transactions at once.

The problem of scalability is partially solved by the use of L2 solutions. For example, there is a Lightning Network superstructure for Bitcoin, which does not load the main blockchain. The widespread implementation of this technology will help prevent queues in the future.

Impact on Bitcoin price

The current significant queue in the BTC network is unlikely to affect the value of the asset in the moment. But it does create a number of questions for what is happening around the Bitcoin blockchain.

If before the BTC network seemed to market participants something fundamental, stable, which is very difficult to change. And, as a consequence, difficult to deteriorate in its parameters. After the emergence of projects like Ordinals, Bitcoin no longer seems to be a cryptocurrency ” constant.

The fact that thousands of enthusiasts in the Bitcoin network can now create NFT using the experimental script BRC-20. This expands the capabilities of the project, but creates no additional value for BTC. Our expert noted that the Bitcoin blockchain has never been known for scaling as it is. And in times of stress and strong movements of the cryptocurrency market, transactions in the network, compared to other blockchains, were very slow at all.

Now, against the backdrop of a growing number of transactions. And at the moment the number of transactions “in the queue” exceeded 400 thousand, the network’s fees have also increased, which adds to the negativity.

Thus, over time, the perception of Bitcoin as the first asset of the market may shift towards other projects. Which will offer reliable, fast and profitable transactions. Thus, the events of today may lead to a decrease in interest and capitalization of BTC in the long run.

However, there is no clear competitor at the moment. Therefore, market participants will continue to use Bitcoin. Current price movements are unlikely to be affected by these processes. But in the long term, such an “evolution” of the Bitcoin network raises questions.

Our experts told us what factors affect the Bitcoin price. And what dynamics can be expected from it in May

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies historically have not maintained the classic “sell in may and go away” trend. Only four times in the last ten years has Bitcoin fallen in May. And the average decline has been lower than the increase in May of other years. This suggests that it is not statistically correct to expect cryptocurrency prices to fall in May. However, this does not mean that the market cannot decline.

At the beginning of the month, we are waiting for the Fed meeting, which will decide on the interest rate and further steps to change monetary policy (MP). Market expectations lay another 0.25% hike and a pause in rate hikes thereafter.

Some analysts believe the Fed could begin loosening monetary policy. Especially in view of recession risks and developing problems in the banking sector. At the same time, if by the results of the FRS meeting on May 3 the Open Market Committee will not designate the prospect of transition to easing of the monetary policy. It will create pressure on both stock markets and cryptocurrencies.

Our experts do not expect crypto-asset prices to rise significantly in May. And continue to wait for major bull events in the crypto market in the third and fourth quarters of this year. An ideal scenario in May would be Bitcoin’s correction to the $25K level. That decline would have provided an opportunity to enter the market at bargain prices in anticipation of further growth.

Fed plans could send signals to investors

The cryptocurrency market continues to be influenced by the dynamics of U.S. stock indices, the dollar index, the actions of the U.S. Federal Reserve. As well as news on the U.S. debt ceiling.

The volume of the U.S. national debt has already reached too much. And the issue of its repayment becomes more and more urgent. This could lead to a change in U.S. economic policy, including the Fed’s monetary policy.

The Fed meeting could be a key moment for the cryptocurrency market. As Jerome Powell’s speech will affect both the dollar exchange rate and the demand for cryptocurrencies. A rate hike, which is likely during the meeting, has already been factored in by the market. But further Fed plans could give new signals to investors. The trading price regime could be adjusted after Powell’s speech. And assessment of the latest news on US GDP and government debt. To account for changes in economic policy and make a decision to buy or sell cryptocurrency.

According to the latest CME Group data, there is an 82.8% chance of a rate hike to 5.25% at the May meeting. On April 27, the U.S. Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis released GDP data. The U.S. economy grew 1.1% year on year in the first quarter against the previous value of 2.6%. Economists had expected growth of 2.0%. The economic growth slowdown may change Jerome Powell’s rhetoric and the Fed will end its rate hike cycle at the June 14 meeting to prevent a recession.

BTC/USD is trading at $28+k. We might predict a trading price range of $26.5-31k for May. Our experts think that the price will stay in that range not only till the Fed meeting. But also for some time and will leave it after June 1, 2023. If suddenly the news background will form in such a way that the buyers will be able to pass the level of $31 th. Then there will be a level of $35k on horizon. Decrease in price below $26.5k will lead to Bitcoin falling to $25k.

Crypto Upvotes experts analyzed the situation in the Crypto market. And told how it can change in the short term, as well as what will happen to Bitcoin price

Last week was a hot one. Bitcoin rose in price by 7.63%, but this is no reason to panic. The growth of quotations began in the evening of April 9. Since the new week, purchases of the first cryptocurrency intensified amid the growth of U.S. stock indices. After the end of the holiday in the U.S. and strong Friday employment data. Investors raised the probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike in May by 25 basis points.

Since this pace of rate hikes has been factored in by the markets. Then buyers went on the offensive after a prolonged sideways trend. At first they took the level of $29,380, and on April 12 they tested the psychological level of $30,000. The price went up to $30,550.

The locomotive for the whole market was Ethereum (ETH). On the night of April 12-13, the Shapella update was successfully activated on the main Ethereum network, after which it became possible to withdraw blocked tokens from staking. There was no reaction to the network update. Apparently, investors wanted to see how staking would behave after coins were withdrawn. The effect was delayed. The Shapella update boosted trading volumes and supported the bullish trend of the major altcoins. The ETH/USDt pair was up to $2,128.

On April 12, the U.S. Labor Department released its inflation report. The consumer price index rose 0.1% month-on-month and 5% year-on-year. Although, of course, everyone was expecting inflation to match the 0.2% m/m and 5.2% y/y forecasts. The inflation report couldn’t stop Bitcoin’s rise. That’s because the rise was supported by the Ethereum rally. And then the dollar also fell to 101.16p after rising.

On April 14, the pair BTC/USDt was rising to the level of $31,000. It was not possible to move higher – the dollar turned up and the indices went down. The dollar rose at the end of the week on strong industrial production data, which rose 0.4% in March after rising 0.2% the previous month (the forecast was +0.2%).

Cryptocurrencies have gained a trump card.

By the end of the day U.S. stocks closed the day down. But they recorded weekly gains across the board. Investors appreciated the weak retail sales report. Which undermined the enthusiasm about the start of the quarterly reporting season.

Cryptocurrencies have gained a trump card. Democrats and Republicans continue to play the political game of who will do more damage to the United States. Congressmen are haggling and the Treasury Department is paying higher interest on debt service.

Democrats and Republicans continue to play a political game of who will do more damage to the United States. Congressmen are haggling and the Treasury Department is paying higher interest on debt service.

On April 11, the cost of U.S. default insurance jumped to the highest level in a decade. Default insurance on 5-year U.S. bonds rose to 42.91p.

In 2022, the U.S. paid $853 billion in interest on its government debt. This year, the amount of interest payments on government debt could reach $1.2 trillion to $1.5 trillion. Yellen warned that the government has enough money until June. The country could face default in July or August. Right now, it doesn’t matter if there is a default or not. Bitcoin and gold could act as protective assets against it. Gold in physical form and Bitcoin in digital form.

The technical picture for Bitcoin is favorable for continued upward movement. Now we can head to the area of $34-35 thousand. For ETH the nearest target is around $2,770.