Our expert analyzed the situation on the crypto market with BTC and told how it can change in the short term
On Sunday, Bitcoin was trading in plus (+2.38%), and the price reached $26,839. The beginning of last week was not easy for BTC due to worries about lawsuits against cryptocurrency exchanges Binance and Coinbase. However, after the release of U.S. inflation data in May, risk appetite increased in the markets. Investors were estimating a rate hike at the June 14 meeting with more than 90% probability, which was fully justified. The interest rates were left unchanged in the range of 5.00-5.25% per annum.
Despite the noticeable decline in BTC quotes. Which were caused by SEC lawsuits. As well as reduced liquidity in the market, Bitcoin began to strengthen on June 15 in the U.S. session. On Friday (June 16), the BTC/USDt pair rose 2.92% to $26,345. Active growth in stock indices and the collapse of the U.S. dollar at the beginning of the week also supported the growth of Bitcoin and altcoins. On Saturday (June 17), the rise in quotations continued to $26,839.
Technical analysis and conclusions
According to the technical analysis, the upward movement has a truncated formation with three tops. The correction after such a pattern reaches 62% of the growth. And that in this case is $25,600. However, at the beginning of the move, the truncated pattern could become a running correction in the direction of the move. And that could accelerate the rise. To break through the downtrend line and lock in a bullish signal. Then the buyers need to break through $27,500.
Our experts note that in the U.S., June 19 is Juneteenth, which is a federal public holiday. Many major exchanges, such as the New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ, work a reduced schedule on that day. And this could be an opportunity for buyers.
Two speeches are scheduled this week by J. Powell, head of the U.S. Federal Reserve. The FOMC officials will also make speeches. Their thoughts about continued high inflation and a new rate hike in the coming meetings may rock the markets and reduce risk appetite. It is unclear what the SEC’s head of exchanges will say.
Friday’s comments from two Fed officials dampened optimism that an aggressive interest rate hike is over. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that core inflation is not declining as much as he expected. Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin expressed satisfaction with further rate hikes. And that’s given that inflation has not yet reached the obvious level of a return to 2%.
In terms of voters, the spread is roughly as follows: two FOMC members think the current rate level (5.25%) is appropriate for the end of the rate hike cycle. And four officials see another 25 bps increase as appropriate. And the other 12 see at least two more raises of 25 bps.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at a press conference Wednesday that no decision has been made on the upcoming Fed meeting in July. But many investors and analysts expect rate hikes to resume.
Thus, the situation in the cryptocurrency market remains uncertain. And price movements depend on many factors, including regulation, economic data. As well as news from the industry and price movements in the forex and stock market. Therefore, investors should continue to monitor the news and act with caution when making investment decisions.
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