Our weekly feature. Our experts analyzed the market situation and told how it may change for bitcoin this week

On Sunday, November 26, bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $37.7k, its price up 3% since the end of the previous week.

Key events of the past week:

• News of a $4.3 billion fine for crypto exchange Binance and the resignation of the head of Binance. The market had mixed reactions to the news.
• The expectation of the soon approval of bitcoin-ETF in the US was the main factor of investor optimism and BTC price growth.
• Weakening of the US dollar. Had a supporting effect on the bitcoin price.
• The growth of stock indices in the U.S. had a positive impact on the bitcoin price dynamics.

Last week, bitcoin traded in a range of $35,632 to $38,414.

On November 20, bitcoin closed at $37,448 after a slight increase of 0.24%. On November 21 and 22, the price plummeted to $35,632 amid news of a $4.3 billion fine for Binance and the resignation of Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao. However, by the end of Wednesday, November 22, bitcoin recovered its losses and rose by 4.66% to close at $37,408. Thursday and Friday were relatively quiet with slight price fluctuations around $37,500.

November 24 saw a 1.12% rise with a high of $38,414. It became the highest value in the last 18 months. Buyers failed to consolidate at these high levels. Almost immediately after the high was updated, there was a correction to $37,550. Nevertheless, bitcoin managed to stabilize above $37,500, maintaining most of the gained growth. At the end of the week bitcoin shows positive dynamics with growth of 0.84%.

The main driver of the upward dynamics were positive expectations of the soon approval of the spot bitcoin-ETF by the U.S. financial regulator. Weakening of the dollar and growth of stock indices in the U.S. also played into the hands of the “bulls”.

Buyers are in a hurry to get on the offensive, even though a new phase of growth has begun since November 21.

Our experts note that buyers overcame the recent drop after Binance’s CEO stepped down and needed to hold out for a couple days. BitRiver estimates that this would have allowed buyers to rest a bit. In order to tear down all the “stops” on short positions, up to the $42 thousand mark. If the price stalls under the $38,500 level. Then, most likely, we will stay under it until the beginning of winter.

Bitcoin showed positive dynamics, despite the intermediate correction. The positive mood of market participants remains, supported by the prospects of launching bitcoin-ETF. This gives grounds to expect the continuation of the uptrend in the medium term.

Among the important events this week it is worth highlighting the US GDP for the quarter (the second assessment will be held on Wednesday) and the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve System J. Powell (Friday).

Our weekly feature. Our experts have analyzed the situation on the market. And told how it may change in the coming week for Bitcoin

Bitcoin trades on November 13 opened with a decline. They were held calmly. During the American session, the price fell to $36,534.

On November 14, the correction continued and intensified after the publication of data on inflation in the United States. And which slowed to a 7-month low. Bitcoin fell in price along with the dollar as sellers reached protective stops on long positions and took out weak players who entered the market around $37k.

Despite the mounting pressure, buyers held their defenses. On November 15, the bitcoin rate recovered to $37,858. The sessional rally was aided by optimistic expectations about the approval of a spot bitcoin ETF.

On November 16, the price corrected by 4.48% to $36,163 amid profit taking on long positions after the rally. The upward momentum faded as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) again delayed a decision on two applications for cryptocurrency-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

The first application was submitted by Brazilian digital asset management company Hashdex. It proposed that the SEC convert its bitcoin futures-based exchange-traded fund, the Hashdex Bitcoin Futures ETF, into a spot bitcoin ETF. The SEC did not have time to review it within 45 days. Therefore, the decision on it was extended until January 1, 2024.

The second application was filed by the American company Grayscale – the largest digital asset manager in the world.

Grayscale expressed its desire to launch an ETF based on Ethereum futures – Grayscale Ethereum Futures Trust.The SEC also failed to review it within 45 days. And so the deadline was extended to January 15, 2024.

On November 17, bitcoin rose 1.25% to $36,613 at the end of the day.The price spent the day in the price range of $35,861 to $36,800 after falling to $35,500 on Thursday. Buyers are trying to keep the price above $35,500.And to then continue the upward movement pending ETF approval.

On cycles, the corrective phase ends on November 21. By timestamps, I have no change.With the bullish momentum fading, bearish sentiment is building. Buyers need to hold the $35k level to continue the rally before halving.

Key events of the past week:

• US inflation slowed to a 7-month low of 3.2% year-on-year in October, but had no impact on the crypto market.
• Bitcoin price approached $38k for the first time in a year and a half. This happened amid optimism around the possible approval of a spot bitcoin ETF.
• The bitcoin rate fell to $35,500 due to profit taking by investors after the price soared.
• Another delay by the SEC in deciding on applications to launch ETFs for bitcoin and Ethereum. This limited further growth.
• Bitcoin ended the week slightly lower, with buyers maintaining control of the market.

Last week, bitcoin traded in a range of $34,800 to $37,980.

What’s in store for us this week:

According to the cycles, the corrective phase ends on November 21. According to the time stamps, nothing has changed for me. As the bullish momentum fades, bearish sentiment is building up. Buyers need to hold the $35k level for the price to continue rising before halving.

Although a new growth phase starts on November 21, we expect a breakthrough to $42 th. from buyers on December 8. They should form a sideways trend above $35 th. And that will allow sellers to build up short positions, on which then buyers will “ride” up to $39 th.

On November 22, minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting will be released. Investors will be watching them to understand the details of the FOMC members’ discussion at the last meeting. Decrease in the dollar index after the publication of the minutes may become a trigger for growth of quotations.

In the U.S. this week will celebrate the national holiday – Thanksgiving Day, which will reduce the number of working days. Accordingly, liquidity on the global currency market may be low. And volatility may be high. Most often, when the U.S. has a day off. Then the markets are traded in narrow ranges. Therefore, the price dynamics in the crypto market will be determined by the news around ETFs.

Bitcoin bulls still control the market. There are no signals to sell. Our experts are waiting for the publication of the Fed minutes and renewed activity of buyers.

Ethereum is lagging behind bitcoin in terms of growth. And the approval of an exchange-traded fund is influenced by additional factors. We break down how much traditional investors are interested in the second-largest cryptocurrency.

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, filed an application on November 9 to register an exchange traded fund (ETF) to invest in the Ethereum network cryptocurrency (ETH). With the ability to directly track its underlying spot price. The price of ETH rose sharply when the news broke. And jumped almost 10% from $1,880 before consolidating above the $2k level.

This is not the first attempt to launch a spot ETF for Ethereum in the United States. For example, in September, Ark Invest and 21Shares filed a joint application for such a fund with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). And later, Grayscale announced that it had applied to convert its own investment trust for Ethereum into a full-fledged ETF. Today, its trust is the world’s largest Ethereum investment product. And with almost $5 billion under management. But it was BlackRock’s application that triggered a jump in the ETH exchange rate. And which until then had been lagging behind bitcoin in terms of growth dynamics. And even more so from tokens Solana, Chainlink and other leading cryptocurrencies.

The immediate rise in the price of ETH is similar to bitcoin’s June rally. When BlackRock similarly applied to register a spot bitcoin ETF. Such ETFs offer investors a convenient way to invest in cryptocurrencies without having to buy directly from traditional cryptocurrency exchanges and sort out their own wallets. Buying shares of exchange-traded funds is a more familiar form for clients of management companies. And pension funds in the US, particularly those who are deterred by the technical complexities and security issues associated with buying a real asset.

ETH has other prospects for ETF approval

Even if approved by regulators, the actual launch of BlackRock’s Ethereum ETF could take up to several months at best. And with that, there is no guarantee that it will be approved in principle. The SEC has up to 240 days from the date of filing to decide whether to approve the product. And that could push the fund’s possible launch date to next fall. There’s also a key difference in the regulatory status of bitcoin and Ethereum in the U.S., and that could also cause additional delays.

If nearly all stakeholders, including the SEC itself, agree that bitcoin is not a security and does not fall under its jurisdiction. Ethereum’s prospects are less certain. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has repeatedly dodged the question of interpreting ETH’s status as an asset.

This is not the only factor influencing the launch of an ETF for Ethereum. But the debate over its status could also possibly slow down BlackRock’s application. The SEC will probably want to observe how a spot ETF for bitcoin performs first. Before approving products for other cryptoassets.

Investor optimism is growing

Ethereum occupies a unique place in the world of cryptocurrencies because it acts as a means of accumulating value (like bitcoin). But at the same time, it historically has a higher potential for price growth. This hybrid model has found confirmation in recent years. When ETH was ahead of bitcoin in terms of growth dynamics. But lagged behind tokens such as SOL from Solana or BNB from Binance.

However, in 2023, the scenario has partly changed: the enthusiasm of traditional investors for the possible emergence of a spot bitcoin ETF. And probably made the first cryptocurrency more attractive to them. Ethereum has lagged far behind bitcoin in terms of price momentum. And the basic fundamentals of the network have not changed much over the year. Despite the fact that ETH is starting to grow following bitcoin. But its average monthly volatility is at its lowest level in the last five years.

At the same time, analysts give optimistic forecasts. Marcus Thielen, head of cryptocurrency market research and strategy at Matrixport, called the emergence of BlackRock’s ETF bid “a nuclear winter for anyone who doubted Ethereum.” Large investors, he believes, are already aiming to allocate to cryptocurrency funds.

Thielen noted that despite lagging behind bitcoin, market sentiment indicators show growing interest in ETH. And trades in crypto assets with higher beta coefficients can generate more profits.

The market happening is accompanied by an increase in the trading volume of “ETH”. And the growth of the funding rate in perpetual futures of both bitcoin. As well as ETH, which reflects the growing optimism among traders, our experts note.

Our experts note that short-term investors currently hold 2.33 million bitcoin in their wallets, which is the lowest in several years

Amid the approaching halving of bitcoin (BTC), which is expected in April 2024. That now the supply deficit of the first cryptocurrency has reached an all-time high. And this is what Glassnode analysts write about in a new report.

According to the authors of the report, the upcoming halving represents an important fundamental, technical. And even a “philosophical” milestone for bitcoin. The total supply of bitcoin is becoming increasingly scarce. And circulating supply is already at historic lows.

At the moment, the wallets of short-term investors contain 2.33 million bitcoin coins. And that is the minimum for several years. As a rule, it is this volume that can be considered the real supply on the market. Since statistically it is short-term investors are ready to part with their coins in the short term.

In addition, experts record a constant outflow of coins of the first cryptocurrency from the wallets of exchanges. At the moment, the number of bitcoins on exchanges has reached a minimum since March 2020.

Wallets noted by analysts as long-term holders, on the contrary, continue to actively accumulate bitcoins. And thereby contributing to the market’s declining liquidity.

Our experts note that in October, Glassnode analysts estimated that long-term investors accumulate $1.35 billion in bitcoins every month. The experts also emphasized that the total number of bitcoins owned by long-term holders reached a new all-time high of more than 14.8 million BTC. And that makes up about 76% of the cryptocurrency’s circulating supply.

Our experts talked about the factors affecting the growth of the crypto market. And predicted the further movement of Bitcoin prices

The bitcoin (BTC) exchange rate rose more than 5% on November 9, approaching the $38,000 mark when paired with the Tether USD (USDT) stablecoin on the Binance exchange. And this is the maximum value of the exchange rate since May 2022.

A positive trigger for the price growth was the news that. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) began negotiations with Grayscale on the launch of its bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). And a report from Bloomberg analysts that the regulator has an eight-day window open for possible ETF approval from 12 other companies. And which had previously filed applications for the commission’s review.

The cryptocurrency market has seen increased volatility recently amid expectations of approval of applications to launch exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Investors believe that the entry of ETFs from major players such as BlackRock or Fidelity into the market will lead to a further increase in the value of bitcoin.

The regulator, represented by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), is taking a cautious stance and postponing decisions on applications to launch ETFs. And which have already filed 12 management companies. Experts believe that the most likely scenario is the simultaneous approval of several applications to launch a bitcoin ETF at once in early 2024, our experts believe.

Buyers managed to test the resistance zone $36,200 – $36,500 before November 9. According to the cyclic analysis, they will be vulnerable from November 9 through November 21. As all key levels are passed, now it is necessary to hold current positions till the third decade of the month. In order to get to $42 thousand by the new year.

In the near future, the crypto market will remain highly uncertain due to the potential launch of ETFs. This will contribute to the persistence of increased risks and volatility.

Fear of lost profits

The reason for bitcoin’s meteoric rise is investors’ reluctance to miss out on “a wave of growth that could hit the crypto industry” if the instrument is actually approved.

In October, even fake news about a spot bitcoin-ETF fueled the market. As a result, bitcoin managed to consolidate above the psychological level of $30 thousand and went to update local highs.

Many participants of the cryptocommunity believe that this instrument will attract trillions of dollars of investments into the crypto-industry. But earlier, market participants pinned similar hopes on futures and cryptocurrency options. Unfortunately, the launch of the tools did not lead to the expected result, our experts note.

As for the further goals of bitcoin, everything will depend on the news background. If the bitcoin price will be fueled by rumors of ETF approval. In the near future, investors will be able to see a “storm” of $40 thousand. In the absence of positive “bubble of expectations may burst” and bitcoin will go into correction, probably in the neighborhood of $30 thousand, our expert warns.

How long will the Bitcoin growth last

Judging by technical analysis and market structure. And also taking into account the fundamental factors, we can say that bitcoin is in an important phase of its cycle. And is preparing for a sharp upward movement.

The big players in the market will manipulate the price, and the expected approval of ETFs. As well as the “general euphoria about it” may lead to overpriced purchases. In the coming year, the bitcoin rate movement will occur in the price corridor of $25-36 thousand. And “a real bull market with bitcoin growth and altcoins taking off 10-20 times” should only be expected in a year and a half.

At the moment, our experts recommend to buy promising altcoins. And trade them between levels in order to accumulate positions until the target event occurs – the very market upsurge. But of course local drawdowns are possible, but the potential profit on individual positions can be more than 1000%.

Our experts analyzed the market situation and told how it may change in the coming week for Bitcoin and the market as a whole

• 5 important events in the crypto market affecting the bitcoin rate for the week from October 30 to November 3:
• The US Federal Reserve meeting on November 1, which decided to keep the interest rate unchanged. This caused an increase in risk appetite.
• Fed chief Jerome Powell’s statements about a possible slowdown in the pace of future rate hikes. This also put pressure on the dollar and supported the bitcoin price.
• Investor expectations for the imminent approval of a spot bitcoin-ETF fueled interest in bitcoin earlier in the week.
• The publication of weak US labor market data on Friday reinforced expectations of a slowdown in Fed policy tightening.
• The price failed to consolidate above $35k.

Last week bitcoin traded in the range of $34-36 thousand. On October 30, the price of BTC fell to $34,474, but remained in a horizontal trend around $34,300. On October 31, the price rose slightly to $34,639, continuing to consolidate in anticipation of the US Federal Reserve results.

Detailed analysis of last week and conclusions

On November 1, there was a sharp rise to $35,421 after the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting. The growth was caused by investor optimism after the Fed head’s statements about a possible slowdown in rate hikes.

On November 2, the price rose to a weekly high of $35,984, from which the correction began. It was aided by a decline in optimism about the imminent approval of a spot bitcoin-ETF. Amid the failed offensive, the price fell to $34,300.

On November 3, at the end of the day, bitcoin fell in price by 0.64% to $34716. In general, trading was calm, without sharp bursts of volatility.

During the first half of the day, there was a gradual decline in cryptocurrency quotes. The rate fell to the level of $34,120, followed by a slight recovery.

Some support for the market was provided by the data on the situation in the U.S. labor market, published at the U.S. session. The indicators turned out to be weaker than market expectations. In particular, the number of new jobs for October amounted to 150 thousand instead of the expected 180 thousand. The previous figure was revised to 297 thousand from 336 thousand. And the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% from 3.8%, with expectations of 3.8%. And average hourly earnings rose 0.2%, compared with a 0.2% increase in the previous month, and a forecast of 0.3%.

Such data reinforced investor expectations that the US Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its monetary tightening cycle. This provided support for risky assets. Since the bitcoin rally was at the end of October. The reaction to the weakening dollar and the growth of stock indices was weak. The euphoria from expectations of spot ETF approval is fading.

What will happen to the bitcoin price in the coming days

Buyers showed themselves well, as they used the provided time window. And to carry the shorts above $35,200 and to get as close as possible to the level of $36 th. External conditions remain favorable for the upward movement. Only according to the calculated cycles is approaching the correction phase with a target of $33 thousand. And it may last from November 9 through November 21. The smaller the correction will be, the higher the probability of growth up to $42 th.

Temporary resistance is the zone of $35,000 – $35,150. Taking into account the weakness of the dollar and the weekly growth of stock indices. The buyers may have time to check the stops behind the level of $36 th. And it is logical, as the truncated formation is formed on the daily timeframe.

Thus, bitcoin demonstrated moderately positive dynamics this week. Our experts note that the key levels of the corridor remain $34 thousand and $36 thousand. To enter the positive zone, it is necessary to confidently overcome the resistance at $36 thousand. Buyers are better to go on the defensive and gain strength for the end of November: efforts will be required to pass new resistances.

Our experts tell us why all major crypto exchanges supported the MEME token. Which “does not represent any usefulness or value” and what provoked demand for it

On November 3, cryptocurrency exchanges started trading Memecoin (MEME) token. MEME rate was fixed at $0.02, which is 2000% higher than the price. At which the project participants received tokens at the pre-sale, organized earlier on its official website.

The token launch was announced by the developers of the Memeland project. Participants of the community formed around it, performing a certain set of activities. And could get on the list of those who will have access to the sale of MEME. According to the project’s website, they collectively invested $10 million in just 40 minutes from the start of the token sale.

All major exchanges, including Binance, Bybit, OKX, KuCoin and HTX (formerly Huobi) launched token trading on the spot market. And later announced the launch of open-ended futures on MEME with leverage up to 50x. The token’s capitalization at the time of publication exceeds $200 million, and the daily trading volume is $600 million, according to Coinmarketcap.

MEME Ecosystem

Memeland was created by the team that founded 9GAG. It is a popular meme and news sharing site that has received support from YCombinator and other influential investors. The project team has branded three NFT collections (You The Real MVP, The Potatoz, and The Capatainz). And has developed apps for games and meta universes. And where their NFTs are also zapped and the token will be involved.

According to the developers, players can earn MEME by holding the token in stacking. Or by actively playing and creating content. And along with NFT, its owner gets the rights to commercialize the associated image.

According to published details, Memeland’s upcoming platforms include travel service Holders.com, video sharing service GMGM.com, cryptocurrency app Stakeland and service Petsland. The team also noted that MEME does not represent “any voting rights” in the Memeland ecosystem. And that is, it is not a so-called governance token.

Large audience of this project and its prospects for further growth

The website 9GAG was created in 2008 by Ray Cheng, a student at the University of Hong Kong, and his brother Chris Cheng as an alternative online platform for socializing. And on which users could share humorous photos or videos. 9GAG’s main server is located in Hong Kong. Ray Cheng’s account on social network X (formerly Twitter) has 2.4 million followers. And he is a well-known influencer, including in the cryptocurrency community clarify our experts.

According to 9GAG itself, 150 million people visit the site every month. The service has 40 million active users and 3.5 billion page views. The information is generally confirmed by Similarweb statistics – according to the analytical service. That 9GAG is among the 500 most visited sites on the Internet.

“9GAG has more social potential than all existing cryptocurrency apps today combined,” said investor Jason Choi of the Tangent fund, which invested in Memeland. It was the fund’s most unconventional bet, he noted. And the investment decision was made without the usual pitch deck or roadmap presented explicitly.

That said, he said, the project has a ready-made strategy already lined up. “With every investment we try to bring cryptocurrency to people. What if we, on the contrary, try to bring people to cryptocurrency?”, – wrote Choi. Our experts are closely following the development of this project, it is too early to say and the price in the future.

Our monthly feature. Our experts analyzed the state of the market and told about what will happen to bitcoin in the coming month

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $34.4k on Tuesday, October 31. And its price has increased by about 28% over the past month. In the first days of October, the rate of the first cryptocurrency was at $27 thousand. And on October 16, the price briefly reached $30 thousand. And in the morning of October 24, bitcoin sharply added 18% in price, reaching $35 thousand for the first time this year.

We are unlikely to see an altcoin season this year

Our experts count November and December as months. Within the framework of which the cryptocurrency market capitalization can grow to at least $1.6 trillion. And ideally – to $1.8 trillion. Historically, the fourth quarter is successful for the cryptocurrency market, and so far October confirms this pattern.

The lack of fresh liquidity given the tight monetary policy (MPC) is certainly affecting the market. But however, demand for current crypto-oriented ETFs, even before spot bitcoin ETFs are approved, could be the reason for capitalization gains. And growth in the most capitalized assets. Expect BTC prices to rise to the $38k level in November, followed by a move into the $40k-$45k zone by the end of this year.

We are unlikely to see an “altcoin season” this year. And we expect market capitalization growth in November-December primarily due to assets from the top-10. The current macroeconomic situation is not suitable for risk-on strategies. And what we can see from the falling US stock market and the rise in gold. As a consequence, mid-cap crypto assets dependent on venture capital, aggressive investments are still experiencing a significant lack of funds. And they are unlikely to show a multiple price growth in the next month or two, our experts believe.

There should be strong new stimulus in the market this year

Now the situation on the cryptocurrency market is influenced by several factors. This is, first of all, investors’ expectations of approval for the launch of bitcoin ETFs. First, that the current spiral of bitcoin growth was triggered by rumors that the U.S. regulator approved a bitcoin ETF from BlackRock. And while the rumors were quickly denied. But the growth continued – reflecting the general positive mood of crypto investors about the prospects of such an approval. Everyone agrees that it will happen soon.

Secondly, bitcoin is affected by the tense geopolitical environment. And which has also triggered a rise in gold prices. Bitcoin is traditionally seen as “digital gold”. And so partly the capital was directed to diversify investment portfolios and in BTC . In addition, market participants expect bitcoin to rise in the run-up to the halving, which will take place in the spring of 2024.

However, there are also a number of negative factors that are restraining market growth. First of all, it is the expectation of stricter regulation of cryptocurrency exchanges and stablecoin issuers in the United States – one of the largest markets for cryptocurrencies. Therefore, we can expect moderate bitcoin growth in November. But a powerful growth spiral or bull cycle should not be expected yet. For this to happen, new powerful incentives must appear, which will be the catalyst for a new rally. Such a stimulus could be the approval of the launch of ETFs. Or either some signal regarding inflation risks in the U.S. from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). For example, a new stock market stimulus package.

Bitcoin price has overcome a number of key resistances what we expect in November

Since Bitcoin belongs to the class of risky assets. And the crypto market is influenced by the dynamics of the dollar and U.S. macro statistics. Among the key events for November, we can highlight the meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the speech of its chairman Jerome Powell at a press conference on November 1. On November 3, data on the labor market in the U.S. will be of interest. On November 14, the inflation report will be released. Data on consumer prices are extremely important. And as investors are interested in the regulator’s future actions on rates in December due to high inflation.

The recent rally of the BTC/USD pair to $35k was triggered by expectations of bitcoin-ETF approval. And it was supported by inflows into crypto funds and increased open interest in bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). The court also ordered the SEC to review Grayscale’s application for a spot bitcoin-ETF. Therefore, any published news or rumors (confirmed and unconfirmed) on the ETF will have a strong impact on the market.

During the last rally, the bitcoin price overcame a number of key resistances, testing the $35k level. After updating the high, the price has been in a sideways trend for six days. According to experts’ calculations, the downward correction is expected from November 9 to November 21.
Until November 9, buyers have time to move to the area of $36 th. If the price closes below $32.7 th before November 9, it may herald the beginning of correction. The target level for correction is $31.7 th.

Investors should be alerted by the lack of price growth after the Fed meeting on November 1 and Powell’s speech. And again, the less the price falls during the correction. The stronger will be the growth after November 21.

Our weekly feature. Our experts analyzed the market situation and told how it may change in the coming week for Bitcoin and the market as a whole.

On Sunday, October 29, bitcoin ( $BTC ) is trading at $34.2k. And its price has increased by 14.5% since the end of the previous week. Our experts have analyzed the situation on the market and assessed the prospects of bitcoin rate movement for the next seven days.

Last week’s analysis and highlights:

• Bitcoin price rose to $35,280 amid optimism around bitcoin-ETF approval.
• The SEC has been officially mandated to review Grayscale’s application to launch a spot bitcoin-ETF.
• SEC Commissioner Hester Pearce stated that the spot bitcoin-ETF should have been approved 5 years ago.
• The DXY dollar index hit a one-month low but was able to recoup all of its losses.
• After the rally, the price entered a consolidation between $33k and $35k.

Bitcoin has been trading in a range of $32,400 to $35,280 this week. On Monday, the price rose to $34,741. And on Tuesday, it reached a high of $35,280. This was followed by a correction to $33,390 on Friday.

On October 23, bitcoin rose 10.26% to $33,069. The rise was driven by several factors. First, the DXY dollar index hit a one-month low on the back of falling US government bond yields. Second, a U.S. court upheld the SEC’s review of Grayscale’s application to launch a spot bitcoin ETF. Thirdly, the rally was supported by technical factors – liquidation of short positions worth $161 mln and breakthrough of important resistance levels.

On October 24, the price of bitcoin rose 2.58% to a high of $35,280. Among the growth factors is the decision of the U.S. court obliging the SEC to reconsider Grayscale’s application. As well as news that BlackRock has assigned a ticker to a bitcoin-ETF pending approval. In addition, support came from a weakening dollar. However, by the evening, the dollar index reversed upward, stopping the bitcoin price growth.

On October 25, the price growth slowed to 1.69%, to the level of $34,496. Amid expectations of bitcoin-ETF approval, investors ignored the strengthening of the dollar and the decline in stock indices. Investors’ attention was drawn to the upcoming halving. Bitcoin’s share of the crypto market rose to 51.4%.

On October 26, the price of bitcoin fell by 1% to $34,151. The market was pressured by the strengthening of the dollar and the fall of technology stocks in the United States. The Nasdaq index fell by 2% and the S&P 500 fell by 1.2%. US 10-year bond yields fell to 4.88%. Fears of recession in the US have increased.

On October 27, the BTC/USDt pair fell by 0.76% to $33,892. During the U.S. session, the price declined to $33,390 amid falling stock indices. Since the end of July, the S&P500 index has fallen 10.2% to 4137. This week, US Q3 GDP data beat expectations, showing the economy accelerating at the fastest pace since mid-2021. Despite US Q3 GDP and expectations of a rate hike in December, fears of a recession in the country remain. Inflation continues to worry the Federal Reserve (Fed).

The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index showed that consumer price expenditures rose at the fastest monthly pace since May. But the annual PCE fell slightly in September, renewing concerns about high interest rates.

What’s in store for us next week with Bitcoin

We have a busy week ahead of us. The focus of economic data will be on employment numbers, including the ADP private sector employment report on Wednesday. And jobless claims on Thursday. And non-farm payrolls on Friday.

The market expects current monetary policy to remain in place. And despite the strong economy and tight labor market as inflation slows. But remains above the target level. In addition, the ISM Services report on business activity index in the US and China is expected. Geopolitical events also remain key drivers for traditional assets. Investors will continue to analyze the results of corporate reports.

The BTC/USDt pair is trading above $34k. According to the volume analysis, buying has noticeably decreased since Friday. This is understandable, because the price is in a sideways trend for a long time without continuing the rally. And when the price stands for a long time, the two-day flat starts to get on investors’ nerves. At this time short-term speculators, working on the downside, start to get involved.

By cyclic analysis there are no changes. The growth phase should last until November 9. Conditions are still favorable for growth.

An alarm bell for buyers may be the absence of upward movement after the speech of J. Powell on Wednesday after the FOMC meeting. According to the latest data from CME Group, rates will remain in the range of 5.25-5.50 with a 99.9% probability on Nov. 1 and an 80% probability on Dec. 13.

BitRiver forecasts that the decline phase may last from November 9 to November 21. Closing the day below $32,700 is likely to be a precursor to the beginning of the correction phase. For the correction, $31,700 should be selected as a support target level. Conclusions of our experts: We are waiting for the rate decision, Powell’s speech and the US labor market report.

The Bitcoin price rose sharply, having updated the annual maximum. Our experts named the factors influencing the growth of the cryptocurrency’s price and its future goals

On October 24, the Bitcoin exchange rate rose sharply to 35 thousand. And reaching a level that was last recorded in May 2022. A few hours before the growth began, it became known that two major companies – BlackRock and Grayscale. Have come close to approving applications for their own exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for bitcoin. The launch of such ETFs is considered in the crypto community as a catalyst for a new bull cycle in the market.

The price movement came after details of BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF called iShares Bitcoin Trust appeared on a list. Which is maintained by the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC).

Various exchange traded funds (ETFs), including gold, have trillions of dollars in assets under management. In the crypto community, it is commonly believed that even a small percentage of this capital can potentially impact the global crypto market. Several management companies are now awaiting approval of their own bitcoin ETFs from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

If their ETFs are approved, the demand for cryptocurrency will increase: buying shares of the funds implies the delivery of bitcoin as an underlying asset. That is, its direct purchase in the market, affecting the exchange rate. Under the management of BlackRock alone are assets totaling about $9 trillion. According to the assessment of the analytical company Chainalusis, it is North America is the largest cryptocurrency market. And its annual turnover is approximately $1.2 trillion. This amount exceeds 24% of the global annual volume of transactions in cryptocurrency.

Growth Factors

Shortly before the rise, it also became known that the court issued an order. Which requires the SEC to review Grayscale’s application to convert its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a full-fledged spot bitcoin-ETF. Grayscale has been seeking this since 2021, when it first sued the regulator. And challenging its past denials of its application. The amount of assets in its trust exceeds $19 billion.

The growth of the last few days is a consequence of the realization of a complex of factors, our experts believe. On the one hand, a significant buying position was formed in the range of $26-28 th. And that is clearly seen by the growth of open interest in recent weeks.

The change of trend to bullish has taken place ?

Another important factor that added impetus to the growth of bitcoin rate. It was the exit from the narrow trading range, formed since the summer, our experts explain. This led to the liquidation of a significant volume of short positions.

During the day, a sharp rise in the rate of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies provoked a mass forced closing of traders’ marginal positions. And who were unable to add collateral to their orders. More than 70% of them were in “short”, that is, betting on the fall of the market. According to the Coinglass service, which tracks the wallets of major crypto exchanges, positions totaling $400 million were forcibly liquidated from October 23 to October 24.

What will happen next with the BTC price

Judging by the current momentum towards $35 thousand, the price movement is in an active phase. And it is unlikely that the market will start fixing positions in the near future. The realization of the main factor (ETF approval) is still far away, and market participants will continue to form long positions in anticipation of this event.

From the point of view of technical analysis, there was a “void” after the level of $31.5 th. And we quickly covered this distance after the breakdown at the expense of traders. Who took short positions (in particular, those who traded a potential “Head and Shoulders” in the daily range).

“Head and Shoulders” is one of the most famous technical analysis figures indicating a trend reversal. It appears on the chart when a new price peak is drawn after an uptrend, but already below the maximum price. The maximum price peak is seen as a “head”, and the surrounding lower peaks are seen as “shoulders”. When the price crosses the so-called neck line, it often means a change of trend.

Further big players will continue to provoke liquidation of short positions even for those traders who trade with low leverage. The next target our experts call fixing of the price at the level of $36 thousand. In this regard, our experts continue to expect reaching the level of $40 th. by the end of this year.