Lack of bullish momentum. When volatility will return to Bitcoin

Our experts have told us what events. And market factors could lead to the beginning of a more noticeable change in the price of Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC) exchange rate has been in the range of $29-31 thousand since the end of June. And in case of short-term price changes, it quickly returns to its previous values.

According to Glassnode, a huge number of Bitcoins changed hands in the range of $30,400 to $31,100. Due to this, the Bitcoin price has formed strong resistance levels that will not be broken without significant fundamental triggers in the next few days.

The current period of consolidation of the cryptocurrency price is primarily due to the market’s expectation regarding the denouement of the Bitcoin-ETF story. And uncertainty about the US Federal Reserve policy and interest rates.

On the one hand, based on the 30-day federal funds rate data, there is a 99.8 percent probability of a rate hike. And what is traditionally a bearish signal for the market. On the other hand, analysts are expecting very soft rhetoric from Jerome Powell regarding further rate hikes. And there is a probability that he will announce the current rate hike as the last one in this cycle. In that case, we can expect a bull rally for Bitcoin as well as other cryptocurrencies.

Also, anytime before August 12, we may get news on the SEC’s decision on Bitcoin-ETF applications by BlackRock and other investment funds. If the applications are approved, Bitcoin could “fly” to $35-40k. But if they are rejected or returned for revision, the price will most likely return to the $27-28k levels.

BTC exchange rate seems to have frozen up

The main reason Bitcoin is stagnating is the lack of bullish momentum. To overcome the $32.5k mark and consolidate above it. Now Bitcoin lacks the inflow of institutional money. And this inflow is hindered by the lack of clear and precise regulation.

Bitcoin’s noticeable growth stopped at the end of June. And since then, the main cryptocurrency has been hovering around $30 thousand for a whole month. This was the case until recently, when several notable events occurred in the crypto market. First, Ripple won a partial victory in court against the SEC. Second, there was the collapse of the dollar in the global currency market. All this, of course, affected the growth of interest in Bitcoin.

Today it continues to trade at the same level, but in the near future it will begin a steady, albeit small growth. Some analysts make predictions based on the 200-day moving average indicator (MACD). And they forecast its reaching the value of $32 th. at the moment of halving. Our experts think that this is quite a balanced position. And it is unlikely that by the halving the indicator will exceed this value by more than 50%. At this point, our experts see a price opportunity between $40k and $50k (most likely $47k).