Our experts have assessed how realistic the forecast from Standard Chartered looks. And what we can actually expect from the price of the first cryptocurrency

Bitcoin (BTC) may reach $50 thousand this year and $120 thousand by the end of 2024. This was stated in a recent report by analysts at Standard Chartered. The bank back in April published a Bitcoin price forecast for the end of 2024 – $100 thousand, explaining that the crypto winter is coming to an end. One of the bank’s leading currency analysts, Jeff Kendrick, says that now 20 per cent should be added to this forecast.

Standard Chartered is a large British bank with operations around the world. The company’s assets, according to Forbes, amount to $820.7bn. Standard Chartered has a network of 1.2 thousand branches in more than 70 countries.

A conservative enough scenario

We believe this scenario is quite realistic given the approaching halving in April 2024 and the inflow of capital into the crypto market by large investment funds such as BlackRock and Fidelity Investments.

Bitcoin will gradually rise to the $50k level. But the really noticeable growth is expected in mid-August. And when the first deadline of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on the Bitcoin-ETF decision will pass. Growth could then continue into September and October. And when, according to many analysts, the Fed’s rate hike cycle will end. And already next year, on the background of halving, the price of BTC, quite probably, can reach the mark of $100-120 thousand.

The market has been in a state of consolidation for several weeks. And the BTC rate is fluctuating around $30,500. The nearest important events that can affect the market are reports on the consumer price index (CPI). And producer price index (PPI) in the U.S. on 12 and 13 July, respectively, which may affect the Fed’s rate decision.

Our experts note that the meeting itself will be held on 26 July. Both experts and traders are already confident in raising the current rate from 5.25 to 5.50%. And that could potentially cause a slight correction in the Bitcoin rate.

The number of active developers in cryptocurrencies is now higher than it was before the crypto market’s record growth in 2021

The number of developers in the field of cryptocurrencies has almost doubled in three years. This data follows from the report of the venture capital company Electric Capital. The growth of the indicator from June 2020 to the same month of this year was 92%.

Now the number of active developers is still higher than it was before the crypto markets hit record growth in 2021.

As of 1 June, the figure stood at 21,300. And that’s a quarter more compared to the same period in 2021. And about five months before Bitcoin set a record high above $69 thousand.

The authors of the report track the number of so-called commits – public edits and updates to the software code of projects. And which are placed in the public domain on the Github site. Analysts consider those developers who have continued to participate in writing the code of crypto services for at least a year to be beginners. Beginners are programmers with an experience of one to two years. And seasoned professionals are those whose experience exceeds two years.

Our experts note that professionals who have worked in the field of cryptocurrencies for at least one year. They also continue to make the majority of code commits.

Our experts have analysed the market situation and outlined how it could change in the short term for Bitcoin

The week from 3 to 9 July was quite peaceful for the Bitcoin market. The price of the cryptocurrency fluctuated between $29,800 and $31,500. Significant volatility was seen on Monday (3 July) and Thursday (6 July). On these days, buyers tried to overcome the resistance level in the range of $31,400 to $31,500, but failed to succeed.

At the beginning of the week the price reached $31,380. However, due to the Independence Day celebrations in the USA on the 4th of July, a corrective movement was seen in all markets. Which lasted until the publication of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. The correction of the BTC/USDt pair was temporary and the price recovered to $31,500 from $30,200.

The minutes of the Fed meeting showed that interest rates remained unchanged. But raised expectations of a possible increase at the next meeting. This was one of the reasons for Bitcoin’s price fluctuations.

The growth of the dollar index and the fall of stock indices forced many investors to close long positions due to concerns about the U.S. economy. A correction started from the $31,500 level. The US private sector employment report released by ADP. And showed a stronger increase in private sector jobs by 497 thousand in June than expected. The data indicated that the US labour market remains strong despite the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy. They raised investor concerns about a possible more aggressive tightening of the Fed’s monetary policy.

Opportunity for growth remains

The US Department of Labour reported that data on non-farm payrolls for June showed the addition of 209 thousand jobs. And while the forecast expected the addition of 225 thousand jobs. This led to the weakening of the US dollar. The unemployment rate was 3.6% compared to the previous reading of 3.7%. And average hourly earnings rose 4.4% year-on-year, up from 4.2% in the previous month, adding to inflationary pressures.

According to CME Group, there is a 93% chance of an interest rate hike of 25 basis points to 5.25-5.5%. A rate hike favours a stronger local currency. Given that the market has already taken this hike into account, we can expect the dollar to decline further after the announcement of the US Federal Reserve’s decision.

Next week, special attention will be paid to inflation indicators in the US after the publication of labour market data. The consumer price index (CPI) for June is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month. And the annualised rate is expected to fall from 4.0% to 3.1%. The core CPI is also expected to decline from 5.3% to 5.0%.
Our experts believe that there is still room for Bitcoin price to rise to the $34k level, which represents the target zone.

Our experts gave their opinion on the prospects for Bitcoin. And named key events for the market as well as predicted further movement of the exchange rate

On July 6, Bitcoin (BTC) momentarily reached $31,500. This was the first time since the beginning of the year. As of 16:30 Moscow time, bitcoin is trading at $31k.

Bitcoin crossed the $31K mark half a month ago, and since then, its price has not declined significantly. There is every reason to believe that it will only grow further. The situation on the crypto market now is extremely favorable.

The US Federal Reserve is talking about the possibility of using payment stackcoins as money in the future. Deutsche Bank, Citadel, Fidelity and several other financial giants have entered the crypto market. And by launching their own decentralised crypto exchange, EDX Markets. The number of applications to launch bitcoin-ETFs for the spot market is growing: BlackRock and Invesco are now interested.

Our experts believe that all cryptocurrencies will grow significantly in popularity in the near to medium term. Bitcoin, on the other hand, will aim for $35,000. This threshold, it may cross already in autumn. If no shocks occur, the next bar for it is $40 thousand.

The data that almost all of the company’s ETF applications have been approved by the US regulators also adds to the positive. That is, the chances that we will see a spot bitcoin ETF on the market in the near future are increasing significantly. The launch of such a fund will attract additional capital to the crypto market from institutional investors, which will lead to an increase in the BTC exchange rate.

Bitcoin could exceed $125,000 in 1.5 years, analysts suggest, based on past signals

The head of research and strategy at cryptocurrency marketplace Matrixport, Marcus Thielen, predicted. That Bitcoin could surpass $125k by 2025. According to historical data, the reversal to a multi-month rally is off to a good start. And once prices reach a yearly high, thereby confirming the end of the bearish cycle.

The signal was formed at the end of last June, when the exchange rate of BTC exceeded $31k. Earlier impulses were recorded in August 2012, December 2015. And in May 2019 and August 2020, preceding the first cryptocurrency’s active rate hike.

Given the data on the asset’s yields from the most important marks during these periods, Thielen speculated. That over the next 12 months the value of the coin will rise by 123%, to $65,539, and over 1.5 years will increase by 310%, to $125,731.

On the day of July 6, Bitcoin price momentarily reached $31,500, the first time this has happened since the beginning of the year. VTS has risen by more than 3% overnight and by almost 90% since January 1.

Our experts note that the price of some other cryptocurrencies rose after Bitcoin. Solana (SOL) was among the leaders of the day, rising 5.7% to $20.18. Bitcoin Cash also continued to grow markedly.

Cryptocurrency trading volumes rose in June for the first time in three months.

The optimism of cryptocurrency traders is linked to an application by management company BlackRock to open a Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF).

Total spot and derivatives trading on centralised exchanges rose 14% to $2.71 trillion.

Increased volatility following the SEC lawsuit against Binance US and Coinbase. As well as a positive market outlook following bids for spot bitcoin ETFs by companies such as BlackRock and Fidelity contributed to increased trading activity last month.

Cryptocurrency spot trading volumes remain at historically low levels. The second quarter was the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2019.

One of the world’s largest investment firms, BlackRock, is set to launch an exchange traded fund (ETF) for Bitcoin. This is an important step for the market due to BlackRock’s reach. And also because the fund will allow investors to buy bitcoin as ETF shares from a regular brokerage account.

In an application filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The company is asking to be allowed to trade the cryptocurrency through the iShares Bitcoin Trust vehicle. It will be a spot fund, meaning that when its shares are purchased, there will be an actual purchase of coins in the market. It will also make it easier for institutional investors, including pension funds, to own cryptocurrency. Our experts note that as of the end of March, BlackRock had more than $9 trillion under management.

We explain the importance of the TVL indicator and how to calculate it correctly. And how to use it to assess the investment case for blockchain projects

Total value locked (TVL) is one of the key metrics. It helps to understand the value of a blockchain-based service, protocol or application. The use of smart software contracts in such applications is rethinking traditional financial solutions by automating contractual logic. And it does not require an intermediary in the form of the usual financial institutions (banks, exchanges or others).

Smart contracts enable the development of decentralised finance (DeFi). The transparency of the blockchain as a public registry of transactions makes it possible to see the volume of funds. This can be seen both in an individual smart contract and in an entire ecosystem of blockchain-based applications, such as Ethereum. TVL is a key metric for demonstrating audience interest in a particular protocol. And it is commonly referred to as a decentralized application (dApp).

How TVL is calculated

Uniswap, one of the largest decentralised exchanges (DEX), is a case in point. It pioneered the development of automated market makers (AMMs). And it has made it possible for users to exchange tokens without the need for intermediaries.

Anyone can deposit funds into Uniswap liquidity pools representing paired tokens. Pools for paired tokens, such as ETH/USDT, lock in users’ funds. And in doing so, turning those users into liquidity providers (LPs). When other traders want to exchange a token (USDT or ETH), they connect to the appropriate pool to take advantage of its liquidity. The liquidity providers, in turn, receive a percentage of the token conversion.

Each liquidity pool has its own TVL, which shows how much total cryptocurrency funds in dollar terms have entered the pool. If you take the total amount of funds in each pool on Uniswap. You can then determine the total liquidity of the exchange. Similarly, all liquidity pools of other networks, remembering Ethereum, that Uniswap also supports – Arbitrum, Polygon, Optimism, Celo and others. As of early July, the total value of all blockchain tokens in all Uniswap pools is $4.11 billion, according to the DefiLlama service.

A similar process for calculating TVL can be applied to credit protocols such as Aave or Curve. This is because they use the same principle of pooling the liquidity of smart contracts. However, TVL does not take into account outstanding loans and yields. And which liquidity providers’ deposits earn. Instead, TVL only reflects the value of smart contract deposits. If you calculate TVL not at a specific protocol. But for example the entire blockchain network (e.g. Ethereum), it would take into account the total TVL of all applications. As of July, the TVL of all dApps on the Ethereum network is $26.77 billion – about 60% of the entire DeFi market.

Why TVL matters

TVL clearly shows the value of deposits and people’s interest in a particular protocol or blockchain network. Similarly, when more deposits are made to one bank than another, it indicates that the first bank is more popular.

In addition, TVL allows for an assessment of the overall health of a particular protocol. If it holds more funds. It means it has higher liquidity and can operate more efficiently. Because in decentralised finance, the liquidity providers are the users themselves. This is critical for the sustainability of the market. Lack of liquidity leads to significant delays and higher token exchange fees.

Moreover, significant demand or an attempt to exchange too much money on a decentralised exchange can cause fluctuations in token prices. And that will lead to failed transactions. This is why the liquidity pools have a slippage percentage for each pair of tokens. If, for example, the price of a token rises above 0.3% during an exchange, the transaction is cancelled.

A lower TVL in a dApp or blockchain means less monetary stability. This can lead to lower rewards for liquidity providers. And a deterioration in the overall state of the protocol.

How reliable is the information on TVL

If the market capitalisation of a dApp is greater than its TVL, the protocol is said to be overvalued. At the same time, if you divide the amount of capitalisation of a protocol by the amount of its TVL. And the ratio will be less than one, we can say that the protocol is undervalued. That said, the ratio of market capitalisation to TVL for DeFi services is often dynamic.

The market capitalisation depends on the price of the service’s native token multiplied by its total negotiable supply. For the Uniswap protocol, this token is the UNI control token. Its price is usually influenced by market hype, the listing of the token on exchanges. As well as protocol updates and other significant events.

Another factor that can distort TVL as an indicator of project value is the activity of so-called whales. These are investors or organisations that have significant capital at their disposal in crypto-assets. They are capable of increasing a project’s TVL with just one large deposit. Or conversely, collapse it if they decide to withdraw assets from the pools.

Our experts point out that it is worth paying attention to the total number of users of the protocol or blockchain in this regard.

Our experts have commented on the current state of Bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole. And also named the key events that will affect the cryptocurrency price this month

In early July, Bitcoin (BTC) has held steady at slightly above $30,000. Over the past month, the first cryptocurrency has gained about 14%. Despite the negative news backdrop of early June. Which is related to the US regulators’ lawsuits against the largest cryptocurrency exchanges Binance and Coinbase. But news of plans by major investment firms BlackRock and Fidelity to enter the crypto market has boosted investors’ optimism.

Bitcoin for June showed a strong bullish trend, which was supported not only by fundamental news. It also saw an increase in purchases of the asset on the spot market, indicating increased investor interest in the cryptocurrency benchmark. At the end of the first half of the year, Bitcoin became one of the growth leaders among crypto-assets. And this dynamic fits well with the concept in the market. That started to take shape after FTX collapsed last November.

Our experts note that among the factors that will play a role, one of the important fundamental events will be the Fed’s interest rate decision at the next meeting. The markets are laying down the likelihood of a rate hike in July. But if the Fed is not in a rush to continue tightening or indicates that the pace and speed of rate hikes will not be rapid. Cryptocurrency will react positively to such rhetoric, which will support crypto-assets.

The entire market awaits strong growth

The Bitcoin price has spent the last week in a quiet sideways consolidation process. The flagship cryptocurrency had previously risen markedly; it was time for analysis and data collection. The market has gathered maximum support factors, from SEC and Binance agreements to massive interest from BlackRock and Fidelity funds in Bitcoin-ETFs. New crypto exchanges are opening, and platforms are pining for strong growth – and at this point, it has all coincided.

Technically, there is nothing to prevent BTC from moving towards $40-42k. Seasonal cycles show that the rising trend could stretch until July 22-25. The support level is located at $29,800, resistance is at $31,150.

In July, bitcoin rate, according to seasonal cycles and technical analysis data, may strengthen in the range of $33-34 thousand. For this purpose, the market needs to consolidate above the resistance level.

The number of cryptocurrency wallets with assets under 1 BTC is increasing. And there is demand from individuals on the side of the flagship cryptocurrency. In addition, investors are closely involved in the issue of bitcoin-ETF licensing. If the SEC approves such licences, the funds will trigger demand for Bitcoin. And that does not exist on the market in the right volume. A supply vacuum will cause a violent rise in the price. This is a long-term influence, but any positive news in that direction will support the BTC exchange rate.

The crypto market’s capitalisation has been rising for the past two weeks and stands at $1.210 trillion. It has recovered markedly from the downturn, which is a signal that investors are willing to buy.

Our experts assess the prospects for the Litecoin cryptocurrency and tell us what will drive its price up

In the current cryptocurrency market, Litecoin (LTC) looks attractive to buy. There are several reasons for this.

Firstly, the launch in the US of a new exchange for institutional investors, EDX Markets. In terms of funding, the exchange is backed by well-known professional participants such as Citadel Securities, Fidelity, Charles Schwab, Sequoia Capital and Virtu Financial. The exchange allows trading in a limited list of cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Litecoin (LTC) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH).

For example, if you look at Bitcoin Cash (BCH). You can see the reaction in just over a week has increased in value by 3 times.

A similar scenario can be expected from the cryptocurrency Litecoin (LTC). It is close to a yearly high. If we draw an analogy with BCH. After the upward breakout of a significant high, the upward trend began to accelerate.

Second, the continuing risk appetite on global stock platforms. A number of public companies have already fully recouped the decline of last year, and some even updated their historical highs.

Trade plan
Buy LTC after a breakdown of $106;
Risk of 10% of the capital;
Stop loss $96;
Take profit – $150.

Disclaimer:

Crypto-Upvotes does not provide investment advice. This material is for information purposes only. Cryptocurrency is a volatile asset that can lead to financial losses.

Our experts have analysed the cryptocurrency market and explained how it could change in the short term for BTC

The week from 26 June to 2 July was quiet. BTC/USDt traded between $29,500 and $31,282. The increased volatility was observed at the end of the week on Friday. There were reasons for it. However, the market quickly calmed down, so the consolidation in the limited range causes some optimism. And regarding the continuation of the uptrend through July 22.

In the first half of the week, sellers tried to break the support of $29,900 on the background of the statements of the US Federal Reserve Chairman J. Powell.

He made at the European Central Bank forum about possible increase of interest rates twice this year, but failed. The price bounced back to the $31,282 level. The publication of first quarter GDP data supported the dollar but had no effect on the crypto market.

Bitcoin rose on news that asset manager Fidelity Investments had applied to create a bitcoin spot fund (ETF). It joins other management companies, including BlackRock, WisdomTree, Invesco and Bitwise, which had earlier applied for a bitcoin ETF this month. In addition, CME Group announced the launch of new futures for the ETH/BTC ratio. And that also had a positive effect on the entire market.

On Friday, the market saw increased volatility. Bitcoin plummeted 5.26% to $29,500 in 15 minutes. For the crypto market, such a dip is commonplace. As the price may well show a drop of 15-20% on negative news.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has told the Nasdaq and Cboe exchanges that recent bids from BlackRock, Fidelity and others for spot bitcoin-ETF funds were not “clear and comprehensive”. This was reported by The Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter. The SEC returned the applications because they lacked sufficient information. Including a so-called joint supervision agreement or details of the mechanism. The fall in the price of BTC has been limited because companies can update the wording and resubmit applications.

Important events and short forecast

The US markets will close early on July 3 and will not be open on July 4 due to the bank holidays, Independence Day. Minutes from the last US FOMC meeting will be published on Wednesday (5 July). And non-farm payroll data will be released on Friday (July 7). These are the key events for the week. Also keep an eye on the news from the SEC and companies that have previously filed for BTC spot ETFs.

Sellers managed to remove protective stops on long positions below $29,800 to $29,900. After falling to $29,500, the price returned to $30,748 and stabilised around $30,400. The ETH/USDt pair jumped to $1,948 after falling to $1,825.

Our experts note that on the whole the technical picture is favorable for the continuation of the upward movement to $34k. The growth phase should last until July 22. Then there will be a downward correction or sideways movement until September. The S&P500 index is recovering well. And there is a reserve for growth in the range of 6%. Buyers still have time to move up before the US Fed meeting.