Bitcoin fell below $18 ths, other cryptocurrencies were also affected. Our Crypto-Upvotes experts pointed out reasons for market decline. And also told about its short-term prospects

In the evening of November 8 Bitcoin rate momentarily fell to a two-year low of $ 17.1 ths. As of November 9, Bitcoin cryptocurrency is trading at $ 17.2 ths, it has fallen in price by 10% over the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin price decline accelerated as the rate of cryptocurrency exchange token FTX (FTT) plummeted almost six-fold, from $19 to $3. Altcoin now trades at $4+ and shows a daily decline of 74%.

The FTT token collapse and the overall situation around the FTX crypto exchange caused the entire crypto market to fall. First, the FTX exchange lost liquidity and its own token price collapsed. And then Binance announced about buying this exchange.

Possible FTX and Binance deal attracted attention from regulators. As well as other reasons that helped Bitcoin collapse

FTX and Binance deal attracted regulators, raising antitrust concerns. Regulators have the power to block major mergers. If they fear it will limit market choice. And there are strict laws against anticompetitive behavior.

Among other factors in a declining market is the tension between China and Taiwan. Because China is a pretty big player in the crypto market. Taiwan makes chips for mining. So this factor is important and pressures cryptocurrency prices down.

Another reason, our expert called the U.S. Congress elections. At the moment, Republicans are expected to win the elections to House of Representatives.

Cryptocurrency market sympathizes, first of all, with the Democratic Party. At least by the volume of investments in their election campaign. Foreign representatives of the cryptoindustry are betting exactly on Democrats.

In addition, all these problems of crypto-industry coincided with the growth of stock indices and weakening of USD.

Crypto market at an early stage of formation of the “bottom” ?

Buyers could not take advantage of the moment to pass the level of $22.5 ths. While USD is under pressure, and stock indices are set to rise. Buyers have a chance to return Bitcoin price to $20 ths. Now we need to wait for volatility to decrease. And exchanges FTX and Binance clarified the situation and their further actions, said our expert.

Our expert added that the current situation, which now presses the crypto market, could be a culmination of decline. Because the current situation in crypto industry may be the initial stage of forming a “bottom”. Because for many market participants such prices are of interest to increase buying volume or to enter this market.

Now there should be a set of factors that will be able to raise the price up. Therefore now the L-shaped recovery, rather than a sharp reversal of a bearish trend is more probable. If the situation with China and Taiwan does not worsen. It is unlikely that anything else can hurt the market more than it already has.

Our Crypto-Upvotes experts discussed how US dollar affects cryptocurrency market. And gave predictions about the further movement of leading cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin rate rose from $19.5 ths. to $21 ths. per day. Ethereum rose by 13% and passed the mark of $1.5 ths. Among the top 30 cryptocurrencies by capitalization, all coins, except stabelcoins, increased in value. Market capitalization of entire digital currencies market showed growth of 6.9% and exceeded $1.047 billion.

At the same time, the US dollar collapsed against the euro on Forex market to its lowest level in five weeks. For the first time in this time, the U.S. currency became cheaper than euro. Dollar index (DXY) is also near a three-week low.

Impact of dollar index on cryptocurrency rates

How Bitcoin and the crypto market in general behave is influenced by the U.S. Dollar Index. Our expert explained that the DXY index (U.S. Dollar Index) shows the dynamics of the dollar against a basket of major world currencies. Such as : Euro, Swiss Franc, Pound Sterling, Canadian Dollar, Japanese Yen and the Swedish Krona.

Thus, the index shows the growth or decline of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of currencies. When the index goes up, Bitcoin usually goes down. And when the index falls, Bitcoin goes up. This inverse correlation between the dollar index and Bitcoin was noticed a decade ago, and has been confirmed constantly since then.

Now Bitcoin’s rise above the $20,000 mark is due to the DXY index going down. The reason for this is the release of good reports by IT giants. As well as relatively positive data on the US labor market. And investors’ hopes that this information will lead FED to stop raising the rate.

Short-term strengthening of BTC or not?

However, despite some slowdown in U.S. inflation. The Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy. According to our expert, there is now too big a gap between inflation and the rate. Therefore, there is no reason to expect a strong slowdown in prices.

As early as next week at the meeting, Fed policymakers may raise the rate again by 75 bps (0.75%) to 4%. If FED declares that this trend will continue in the coming months, then today’s rate rally will be crossed out and sent to the trash garbage can.

According to our expert, we should expect in this case a new decrease of Bitcoin to the area of $15 thousand or even lower. Ethereum may go down to $1,000.

Under current conditions, cryptocurrency investors can liquidate futures positions. And make a profit by simply locking in profits on buy trades. Because there is no certainty that the current growth trend will continue now. Most likely, in the coming days it will be possible to observe the development of demand for the US dollar again.

What are prospects for growth of BTC?

Most likely, the trend of declining cryptocurrency rates may begin to change only in the first half of 2023. According to our expert, that is when the process of Fed’s monetary policy tightening may end. Or the step of rate increase will not exceed 0.25%. Then stock markets will start to form trends on increase of quotations. And on cryptocurrency market too, it will happen.

What events in the next month may lead to changes in the price of Bitcoin. And to what levels it can rise or fall

First Cryptocurrency has continued to trade in a relatively narrow range since mid-June 2022. Since then, the rate of BTC fell to a low of $17.6 ths. And at its peak, it reached $25.2 ths. Most of the time, cryptocurrency is near the mark of $20 ths.

Over the past month, the Bitcoin price range has become even narrower. Maximum value of the rate for the last 30 days reached $20.4 ths (October 6). The rate of Bitcoin fell to a minimum on the day of publication of the U.S. inflation data for September. At that time the price of BTC fell to $18.3 ths, but quickly recovered.

As of Oct. 24, the leading cryptocurrency is trading around $19,200, according to CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin has a market capitalization of $371 billion, with a daily trading volume of $28.8 billion. The asset’s share of the cryptocurrency market is 38.3%.

U.S. congressional elections and macroeconomics could affect BTC price

The U.S. Congressional elections are due in November, our Crypto-Upvotes experts note. Cryptocurrency and traditional markets are generally strong in the run-up to this election. However, our experts say it’s not quite right to expect the same rate behavior as it did after the last election. The previous congressional elections were held in early November 2020. The cryptocurrency market was in a bull market. And since then, Bitcoin has gone from $15k to $61k by April 2021.

But today both the stock market and the cryptocurrency market are still bearish. And the volatility in the cryptocurrency market is quite low. Therefore, no serious rally is expected from BTC. In case it fails to rise above $23k, the downward pressure will continue.

The bearish pressure is amplified by global macroeconomic weakness combined with the popularity of short ETFs on Bitcoin. This raises concerns about whether this time there will be a repeat of November 2018, when Bitcoin collapsed from $6k to $3k also after a long period of consolidation and low volatility.

Investors, primarily institutional investors, as in the stock market, always assess the situation in terms of the reaction of the Federal Reserve (Fed). As well as on macroeconomic data on the United States. Therefore, the price of BTC may react to further Fed Funds rate hikes.

Also, among important events for Bitcoin and the entire crypto market in November, our expert called the TOKEN2049 conference. It will be held from November 9 to 10 in London. Our expert noted that it will be attended by such well-known figures in the cryptocurrency community as Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz, Tezos co-founder Kathleen Breitman and Blockchain.com CEO Peter Smith.

There is hope that the rate will soon stop rising by 75 bps. (0,75%)

At least a “slight hope” that the rate will soon stop rising by 75 bps (0.75%) at the end of each meeting. . As well as reduction at least to 0.25% or suspension of increases. All this will lead to the development of a medium-term trend for growth i Bitcoin rate.

In this case, psychologically important level of $20K may be overcome. This will allow the bulls to rush to the levels of $24K and $28.3K in the coming month. More rapid growth looks too optimistic variant so far. But it may lead to $32 thousand and $36.8 ths, says our expert.

It’s also worth paying attention to the following levels in the price of BTC when it grows: $20.5 ths, then $22.8 ths. Reaching the same Bitcoin mark at $25 K will already mean the change of current bearish trend.

Signals for continuing a bear market trend

Signal to continue bear market could be the level of $16 K. Then we should pay attention to the level of $14 K, and, finally, $10 K.

In the coming month, Bitcoin may show a decline. First, price of the first cryptocurrency may fall to around $18 K, and later to the area of $15 K – $16 K. Our expert noted that it will be possible if Fed rate will continue to rise.

BTC has been written into history of world achievement Guinness Book of World Records on several counts, Crypto-Upvotes experts review

Bitcoin has been listed in Guinness World Records, the latest edition of Guinness World Records 2023. BTC is listed as the oldest cryptocurrency. And also as the first decentralized cryptocurrency and the most expensive cryptocurrency.

The latest of these records was recorded on March 24, 2022. On that day, Bitcoin was worth $42,900 and had a market capitalization of $816 billion. In addition, several other records related to BTC can be found in the book. For example: the largest theft of a cryptocurrency or the world’s first confiscation of a cryptocurrency. And even the largest cryptocurrency poker win ($1 billion).

There are also many NFT-related entries in the Record Book now. Among them is the very first unique Quantum token created in 2014. Or the most expensive token from NFT collections – CRYPTOPUNK #5822, bought for $23 million. And also the most expensive NFT issued by a sports club – Manchester City (UK) tokens with a market capitalization of $47 million.

Ethereum also appeared in the Guinness Book of World Records. However, ETH is not marked by any record. It is mentioned in an article about the first NFT Terra Nullius released on this blockchain in 2015.

Our experts told us about possible price movements for cryptocurrencies in coming weeks. And gave forecast for their prices in accordance with different variants of events development

On October 13, after the publication of inflation data in the U.S., leading cryptocurrencies updated their price lows. Bitcoin rate fell to $18.3 thousand, less than the last time it was worth on June 20, when it was trading about $18.2 thousand. Also Ethereum showed decline – it fell to $1.2 thousand, updating its minimum since mid-July.

But by October 14 Bitcoin had recovered to the level of $19.8 thousand, the daily growth was 5.4%. Аnd Ethereum also rose in price by 7.2%. And the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $980 billion, which is 5.5% more than a day ago.

Current situation on crypto market

Macroeconomics is the leading factor for cryptocurrency markets right now. Our experts notice that after the new release of inflation data in the U.S., there was a rare volatility in leading indices. But at the same time, the sharp drop was just as sharply bought back by investors. Cryptocurrencies reacted in a similar way.

Crypto market heavyweights such as Bitcoin and Ethereum are hardly reacting to events in the cryptosphere right now. However, there are not many negative factors. The main factor “confusing crypto-enthusiasts” is the trend toward tighter regulation in many countries. Because this brings cryptocurrencies closer to traditional asset classes.

Also, cryptocommunity is concerned about the decline of decentralization. Or the lack of growth of this indicator in many blockchains. In addition, the outflow of capital from GameFi, NFT and Metaverses markets looks logical against the background of energy crisis and risks of recession in economics.

Negative forecast scenarios

In case of a prolonged fall in Bitcoin, it is possible that those miners who have been working at a loss for a long time will capitulate. This is likely to lead to a decrease in the level of support. And it will bring Bitcoin’s price down to around $14,000 or $10,000.

Large capital is now panicking and seeking to withdraw funds in stablecoins and US dollar. The most likely scenario is that bitcoin will drop to $17,800 in coming weeks.

In addition, the fall in Bitcoin is accompanied by the biggest sell-offs of miners in the last 2 years – about 8,000 BTC per month (according to Glassnode). This has also influenced the rate of BTC decline and overall current market sentiment, our Crypto-Upvotes experts say.

Positive forecast scenarios

Crypto-Upvotes experts called a scenario in which cryptocurrency rates will start growing in the near future unlikely. However, if Bitcoin breaks through resistance level of $20.4 thousand, it will be possible to see movement to $22.5 thousand, our expert believes.

Positive factors that could support cryptocurrency rates are hard to find right now. At the same time, the option to increase prices of cryptocurrencies should not be discarded either. Because investors are eager to redeem assets at lower prices right now.

According to our expert, it could lead to overcoming the level of $1.4 ths for Ethereum. Bitcoin may initially reach a psychologically important level of $20,000. And its overcoming will lead to increase of BTC price up to $22 ths.

BNY Mellon licensed from New York state regulator to handle two cryptocurrencies. Review by Crypto-Upvotes experts

The oldest U.S. bank BNY Mellon began to provide services for cryptocurrency storage, writes The Wall Street Journal. For this purpose, the company received a license from the financial regulator of New York.

Bank will store the keys needed to access and transfer the cryptocurrency. It will also provide accounting services for Bitcoin and Ethereum.

BNY Mellon claims to be the first of eight systemically important U.S. banks to provide custody services for digital currencies. And it allows customers to use one custody platform for both traditional and cryptocurrency assets.

The platform will go live with select investment-fund firms this week. The bank said it expects to expand its crypto custody offerings to additional clients in the future, pending regulatory approvals.

In the summer of 2021, BNY  joined a group of six banks that plan to launch Pure Digital, a digital asset trading platform. At the time, the bank said it would roll out cryptocurrency infrastructure as the legal and regulatory framework emerged.

This is largest increase in Bitcoin mining complexity since May 2021. Cryptocurrency mining complexity rises as computing power grows

On Oct. 10, the Bitcoin mining difficulty increased 13.55%. This was the biggest increase since May 2021, when complexity jumped 21.5%. Usually the figure increases or decreases within 10% every two weeks. The previous record was set on September 14, when the complexity reached 32.05T (difficulty target).

Explanation
Network complexity determines amount of computing power required to find a new block in the bitcoin blockchain. This parameter changes every 2016 blocks, or about once every two weeks. This is necessary to maintain block time of about 10 minutes.

According to BTC.com, complexity is now 35.61 T at 259.52 EH/s, which has also become a high figure. This increase in numbers suggests that the number of miners is increasing and the competition among them is growing.

At the same time, given the current price of Bitcoin, the profitability of mining is close to zero. According to our experts, at a price of $20,000 per Bitcoin, profitability of mining companies is already close to the cost of production (about $15,000-17,000). And in some cases it goes into negative values.

Bitcoin halving could happen a few months earlier than anticipated review by our Crypto-Upvotes experts

Due to the increase in Bitcoin mining volumes, next halving (planned reduction of miners’ rewards) may occur several months earlier than predicted. According to analyst portal The TIE – it may happen as early as Q4 2023.

BTC Halving is reducing twice rewards for a mined block. This was originally built into rules of BTC network. At first, miners received 50 BTC per mined block. Then on November 28, 2012, rewards were reduced to 25 BTC. And on July 9, 2016, to 12.5 BTC, and on May 11, 2020, to 6.25 BTC. Next halving is to take place on block 840,000. Presumably, production of which was announced as May 3, 2024.

Usually, for calculating halving dates, average Bitcoin block mining time of 10 minutes is used. But analytics platforms use constantly updated blockchain statistics to calculate. And to estimate current average Bitcoin block mining time, and then use that number for calculations. According to analysts, this makes the countdown more accurate. A similar method is used by CoinMarketCap platform. Which predicts halving also earlier than planned – in February 2024.

Analysts say that the reason why hashrate is approaching is that there is an increase in BTC mining. Now hashrate network has reached historical highs of more than 284 EH/s.

Tens of thousands of viewers watched fake Apple streams with interviews of Tim Cook and Elon Musk promoting cryptocurrencies

Crypto Scammers took advantage of the fact that Apple was holding a presentation of a new phone on September 7. And launched parallel streams on YouTube promoting cryptocurrencies, allegedly on behalf of their company. Tens of thousands of viewers watched live spoofed old interviews with Tim Cook and Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Currently, these videos have been deleted.

Scammers on YouTube was live streaming an old interview with Tim Cook. That was seemingly being used to attract attention to a crypto scam. And when it was live, tens of thousands of viewers were tuning.

If you’ve seen crypto scams on YouTube before. You would have recognized a lot of hallmarks of what was going on. The fake live stream was getting attention by filling its description with an array of Apple keywords in both the title and description. But when you actually opened it up, it was filled with odd messages linking to a shady-looking crypto site.

One video titled “Apple Event Live. Ceo of Appl Tim Cook: Apple & Metaverse in 2022” aired an old interview from 2018. Bitcoin and Ethereum logos were added to this video. The number of viewers was up to 70,000.

Our experts have noticed that at the same time, more than 10 thousand people watched another stream on a channel called “Apple Inc”. Allegedly, it was supposed to contain an interview with Tim Cook and Elon Musk about Apple and the metaverse. But in fact it was a faked interview about bitcoins with CEO of Tesla and ex-Chief Twitter Jack Dorsey.

In 2013, an Cryptoinvestor bought 5,000 BTC at about $660 per coin. Now he withdrew Bitcoin, which is currently trading at $19000+

On September 5, an Cryptoinvestor withdrew 5,000 BTC ($96 million at exchange rate at time of transaction) from address, which had been inactive for last 9 years. In 2013, a crypto investor bought Bitcoin at a price of about $660 per coin. During this period, investments increased in value 29 times.

Recently, more and more old holders have begun to withdraw Bitcoin from their wallets. On night of March 10, сryptoinvestor withdrew 489 BTC ($20 million at the time of transaction). His wallet had been inactive for at least 11 years. Unknown bought 489 BTC for $50 at end of 2010. On March 10, he withdrew the cryptocurrency, which went up 400,000 times in price.

Our experts point out that it is useful to be a long-term holder. You just need to buy a promising cryptocurrency and not touch that wallet for a few years. Not a single bank in the world can bring such % of profit. So buy coins from famous projects and forget about this wallet for 3-5 years at least and then maybe you will become a millionaire.