Two exchange traded ETF funds raised a total of $73.6 million on the eve of their debut on Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Crypto-Upvotes expert review

Two exchange-traded funds (ETF) will begin trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) on December 16. They are based on cryptocurrency futures. These are the first funds of their kind in Hong Kong. CSOP Asset Management’s ETF invest in Bitcoin and Ethereum futures. Which are listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) in the United States. They are the only cryptocurrency assets allowed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC).

Two funds raised a total of $73.6 million before their debut on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The larger one, CSOP Bitcoin Futures ETF (3066.HK), raised $53.9 million, according to the management company. That’s more than the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF, the first U.S. Bitcoin futures ETF. Which began trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in October 2021 with an initial capital of $20 million.

Crypto-futures ETF demonstrate that Hong Kong remains open-minded about the development of virtual assets. This is despite recent problems in crypto-industry, said Yi Wang, head of quantitative investment at CSOP. He noted that since ETF do not invest directly in Bitcoin and are traded on regulated exchanges in the U.S. and Hong Kong. Investors will have more regulatory protections than tokens traded on unregulated platforms.

The first futures-based Bitcoin-ETF were approved in the U.S. back in 2021. However, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has so far rejected all applications to launch a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF). SEC head Gary Gensler attributed this to the fact that applications for such funds do not meet the Securities Act’s standards for cracking down on fraudulent or manipulative practices.

Crypto-Upvotes experts analyzed the situation with Bitcoin on crypto market and told how it can change in the short term

From December 5 to 11, the pair BTC/USDT traded in the price range of $16.7 ths – $17.4 ths. In the first half of the week Bitcoin was under pressure, in the second it got out in a small plus. Because Bitcoin got back in touch with the stock and currency markets. It was influenced by the dynamics of stock indices and the dollar index.

On Monday, December 5, investors were spooked by better-than-expected data from the U.S. service sector. The statistics changed market sentiment of the market participants. Because they are still afraid of the Fed’s continued tight policy to curb inflation. As a result, the S&P500 index was unable to break through the trend line on the daily and weekly section. The downward correction intensified amid closing long positions in technology sector stocks. The dollar index recovered to 105.79 points. BTC/USDT pair returned to the level of $16.8 ths.

On Tuesday, December 6, Bitcoin rate consolidated at $17 ths. On December 7, the pair BTC/USDT fell to the trend line of $16.7 ths on the background of risk aversion. Since Thursday, December 8, the situation in the markets has changed. Bitcoin gained 2.30% against the dollar to $17.2 thousand. The dollar index reversed downward and the S&P500 index recovered to 3,974 points. That was the end of the index’s rise, as well as Bitcoin’s strengthening.

On Friday, December 9, the S&P500 index fell 0.73% to 3934.39 points. The sell-off in risky assets resumed after the release of disappointing U.S. producer price data for November. Prices rose more than forecasted. The PPI index in November rose by 7.4% on an annualized basis and by 0.3% versus October. The average forecast was for a 7.2% growth for the former index and a 0.2% growth for the latter.

Investors fear again

Fears of tighter monetary policy from the Fed and a possible recession came to the fore. U.S. stock futures changed from rising to falling, while Treasury yields jumped.

The statistics are rocking the markets ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s December 14 meeting. High volatility is needed for option sellers. To sell them at a high premium. Investors are expecting Wednesday’s rate hike of 50 basis points, to 4.5% per year. According to the latest CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 78.2% chance of a 50bp rate hike.

There is still uncertainty in the crypto market. The decline in the BTC/USDT pair on Friday was subdued. The level of $17.35K has not been passed, and the buyers can still pass it till Wednesday. The price pattern at 4H (time range on the chart) is favorable for an upward move.

Support is at the level of $16.9 ths, key – at $16.5 ths. We expect the denouement after the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell at the press conference, which will be held after the announcement of the rates decision.

Computing power of BTC mining equipment also began to decline. In addition to profits of miners, hashrate of network fell by 13% during one month

Bitcoin mining profits have fallen to their lowest in two years, with BTC mining profits totaling $11.6 million on Nov. 26, according to Blockchain.com. Miners last earned less than this amount on November 2, 2020, on that day they received $10.9 million at a BTC exchange rate of about $13,700.

Falling profits for miners come amid the steepest decline in bitcoin since 2018. On November 28, BTC is trading near $16,200, down 76.5% from its all-time high.

In the last 24 hours, 131 blocks of Bitcoin were mined, the reward of miners at the current rate was $13.2 million. Most of the blocks (34 units) were mined by miners connected to the Foundry USA pool. AntPool (25) and Binance (19) followed by F2pool (16) and ViaBTC (12).

Bitcoin network hashrate (the total capacity of all mining equipment connected to the network) declined. On November 2, it peaked at 273 Eh/s and fell by 13% to 237 Eh/s during the month. Decrease in computing power means that some of equipment was switched off by miners.

In addition to falling BTC price, a negative factor for mining cryptocurrency was also an increase in the complexity of its mining. On November 21, this indicator renewed its all-time high and rose to a record 36.95 T. Our experts note that next change in mining complexity should occur around December 5.

Crypto-Upvotes experts explained reason of the last fall of BTC price. And told how it can change in coming days

Last week from November 21 to 27, BTC updated its yearly low. High volatility on crypto market was observed at the beginning of this week. Bitcoin sales intensified on news of the possible bankruptcy of Genesis. Which had $175 million hanging in the collapsed FXT exchange. The BTC/USDt pair was down to $15,400.

BTC price did not go lower. The sales were stopped by a representative of Genesis. He said that company continues to negotiate with creditors and does not plan to declare bankruptcy in the near future. The Wall Street Journal reported that billionaire Justin Sun is considering options for the acquisition of certain FTX assets. This news backdrop formed a nice session bullish trend on the intraday charts. Also, the cryptocurrency market received support from the weakening U.S. dollar in forex. As well as the growth of stock indices in the U.S. before the release of the minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on November 1-2. Bitcoin rose 8.6% to $16,800 in 53 hours.

Buyer activity was halted by news that Genesis had hired a restructuring consultant to explore all options, including bankruptcy.

On Thursday low activity on all world exchanges can be explained by day off in the USA. Markets in the States did not work because of the national Thanksgiving holiday. On Friday, trading was at the level of $16.5 thousand.

As long as there is no negative news, Bitcoin is trying to climb out of the hole Sam Bankman-Fried sent it into. Fear of a possible collapse is keeping investors from active action. Buyers need to pass $17.15k and $18.5k for the FTX exchange collapse to recede into the background.

No factors for BTC growth

After shocks associated with the collapse of FTX, the crypto market is frozen, waiting for new factors for movement. Most likely, there will be no strong changes. Bitcoin now trades at $16.2k, the same dynamics is expected in the next (range $16-16.5k). In the absence of negative news, of course, because there is no positive news to expect.

Level of $18.5k is the key resistance level. Its overcoming will open the way for buyers to $22.5k. Also it will allow many miners to accumulate BTC and not to sell at low prices. Sellers are still set to bring the market down to the $10-12k zone.

The most important event this week is the report on the US labor market in November. As the cryptocurrency market has decoupled from the S&P500. Then it can ignore the price swings of the dollar and the S&P500 after the report is published. If Bitcoin reacts to U.S. statistics. Then again we can look at correlation and stronger correlation with other risky assets.

There will likely be more reports of problems in the crypto industry this week. Even if not as significant and large as with FTX. For example, it is now known that the ecosystem of decentralized finance and stable dUSD coin Ardana. Which is based on the blockchain Cardano, has announced the suspension of project development. Because there is now uncertainty about the funding and timing of this project.

The next negative report is that cryptocurrency lender Matrixport is looking for $100 million in funding. Lead investors have already committed $50 million to the company, but the deal has not yet been finalized. As Matrixport needs to find those who will close the other half of volume.

Conclusion

There are no factors for growth of digital financial assets. Main thing is that there are no new ” Black Swans ” – poorly predictable negative events. In this case, Bitcoin will remain at the level of about $16.5k. However, if there are new reports about difficulties on cryptocurrencies, it can fall to $14-15k.

Scotland Yard cybercrime unit has tracked down phone scam suspects after examining cryptocurrency payments. Review by Crypto-Upvotes experts

Analysis of Bitcoin transactions helped British police arrest more than 100 people, according to Metropolitan Police. In the largest scam operation in the country’s history. Which was conducted by Scotland Yard, was dismantled site iSpoof and caught the suspects of telephone scams.

iSpoof allowed scammers to impersonate tax officials and banks. This included Barclays, Santander, HSBC, Lloyds and others. Phone scammers tried to trick people into giving up money or providing confidential information. For example, disposable bank account access codes. iSpoof disguised phone numbers to make it appear that scammers were calling from a trusted source. With iSpoof, scammers paid in Bitcoin.

The average loss, among those who complained of fraud, was £10,000. It is believed that in total victims of scammers lost tens of millions of pounds. Whereas iSpoof scammers made almost £3.2 million in 20 months. According to police, more than 200 thousand potential victims in Britain alone were attacked through the site. In one year, iSpoof made about 10 million scam calls around the world.

Operation to identify this criminal group was carried out by the cybercrime unit of London Police with the assistance of Europol, FBI and other law enforcement agencies. Investigators began their investigation in June 2021. They collected information from the iSpoof website, and initially the circle of suspects was 59,000 people. So they began tracking only those UK residents on Bitcoin transactions. Who spent at least £100 in Bitcoin on this site.

A wave of arrests followed in the country, and information about other suspects was passed on to law enforcement colleagues in Netherlands, Australia, France and Ireland.

Our Crypto-Upvotes experts have analyzed situation on cryptocurrency market. And told how Bitcoin price can change in the next few days

Last week, from November 14 to 20, trading on the crypto market was relatively quiet. Increased volatility was observed on the first day of the week. Bitcoin/USDt jumped from $15.8 th. to $17.1 th. (+8.69%). Growth in quotations was caused by the head of Binance, Changpeng Zhao. He said he will launch a fund to rebuild the industry and help promising companies. He did so to reduce the negative impact from collapse of crypto exchange FTX.

After updating the weekly high price stabilized in the range of $16 thousand – $17 thousand Investors are in no hurry to buy Bitcoin because they took a wait-and-see attitude. Because of fears of the next wave of sales on the background of new bankruptcies of companies related to the collapsed exchange FTX.

For ten days, market is in the phase of rest after a recent collapse. Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P500 Index has turned negative at 0.62. Crypto market has stopped reacting to the dynamics of dollar and stock indices. Investors are busy transferring tokens from centralized exchanges to cold wallets. They are doing this to protect their cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin price is at $16,000 waiting for a new batch of news about crypto industry. As buyers have failed to quickly get the price back above $18,500. A level of $12k is still flashing green for sellers below, signaling a lack of resistance. Because of a collapse in FTX, events could begin to unfold in a worst case scenario for Bitcoin and crypto investors. Buyers need to consolidate above $18.5k. Without consolidation, bearish sentiment will not be offset.

There is a threat of new bankruptcies, and continued collapse of crypto market

So far, the ratio of long and short positions on futures market does not have any bias. Therefore, we do not expect a sharp change in the situation in the next few days.

On-chain parameters also speak in favor of absence of preconditions for fall. There is also growing interest in cold wallets, amid outflow of capital from CEX exchanges because of scandal with FTX.

Most likely scenario is a continuation of current levels. Accordingly, expected range of BTC price is about $16-17 thousand.

Among stability risks, there is a threat of new bankruptcies followed by an avalanche of liquidations. There are no guarantees that it will not happen this week. But the probability is not high either. And statements of major players about creation of crypto-business support funds to prevent exactly such chain reactions in the market. Should add optimism and confidence in protection of crypto industry from collapse.

Of important – it is worth to highlight protocol of November meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which will be published on November 23. Bitcoin is detached from risky assets, so it may ignore investors’ reaction to the publication of these protocols.

Our Crypto-Upvotes experts told us what dynamics to expect from Bitcoin and digital currency market in short term

On November 14, Bitcoin exchange rate is about $16.5 thousand. During the last week, it fell by more than 20%. Our experts have analyzed this situation on crypto market and told what kind of dynamics to expect in next week.

Any negative news will bring down crypto market

The second week of November reversed all the achievements of buyers since mid-September. The collapse of the crypto market occurred due to the fiasco of negotiations between the head of Binance Changpeng Zhao and the head of FTX Sam Bankman-Fried.

Changpeng Zhao caused a liquidity crisis at the FTX exchange on Monday with his announcement that he would sell FTT tokens. As it turned out, most of the assets of FTX-affiliated company Alameda ($14.6 billion) were FTT tokens.

The Binance CEO wiped out a huge competitor in a matter of days. There is an opinion that he intentionally made public statements about selling FTT. The collapse in crypto market was partly localized by U.S. statistics on Thursday. Slowing inflation in the U.S. collapsed the dollar and boosted demand for risky assets. Traders sold off the U.S. currency on expectations of a slowdown in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hike cycle. The BTC/USDt pair jumped 16% to $18,200.

Although Dollar Index continued to fall on Friday, cryptocurrency halted its rise. Sam Benkman-Fried undermined confidence in the crypto industry. Investors fear the collapse of other cryptocurrencies that have had liquidity problems because of FTX. We just don’t know about it yet. Alameda may be “dumping” its portfolio on the market to take advantage of a price rebound.

The inflation report temporarily diverted investors’ attention away from FTX problems. Although situation in market remains tense. After a collapse and rebound, Bitcoin/USDt is trading at $16,400 in the range of $15,600-$18,200. Shock has passed, but buyer activity is very low. Without new negative news, the continuation of the correction above $18.5k remains. In such conditions, it will be a feat for the buyers. According to our experts, the risks of Bitcoin decline to $12,000 are over 70%. The market is low-liquid, so any bad news on the collapse of some other exchange with its token will collapse crypto market within a day.

Prospects for Bitcoin to rise to $20,000 in coming week

Unfortunately, our experts do not see prerequisites for Bitcoin recovery even up to $20K. All that positive impulse, which the market got after the data about growth of consumption prices in the USA. But crisis around FTX, which is still in its acute phase and just started to develop, didn’t let BTC grow and it fell below $17K again.

This week market will wait for developments around FTX. And the details of the debts of Alameda and FTX. As well as possible solutions to the problem of repayment of debts to clients. Regulators will definitely take action, because many companies related to the American market, Galaxy Digital and Circle, have been affected.

It’s not yet completely clear how catastrophic the collapse of Alameda would be for those companies that Sam Bankman-Fried was actively rescuing in recent months. Rumors have surfaced about Alameda’s liabilities of up to $50 billion. This could be a real counterpart to a collapse of Lehman Brothers for crypto market.

Our forecast for BTC this week is that it might fall to $14-15K and it will hardly go lower because, judging by Order Book, there are huge buy orders. So even if Bitcoin falls below that level, it will be bought back immediately.

Bitcoin fell below $18 ths, other cryptocurrencies were also affected. Our Crypto-Upvotes experts pointed out reasons for market decline. And also told about its short-term prospects

In the evening of November 8 Bitcoin rate momentarily fell to a two-year low of $ 17.1 ths. As of November 9, Bitcoin cryptocurrency is trading at $ 17.2 ths, it has fallen in price by 10% over the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin price decline accelerated as the rate of cryptocurrency exchange token FTX (FTT) plummeted almost six-fold, from $19 to $3. Altcoin now trades at $4+ and shows a daily decline of 74%.

The FTT token collapse and the overall situation around the FTX crypto exchange caused the entire crypto market to fall. First, the FTX exchange lost liquidity and its own token price collapsed. And then Binance announced about buying this exchange.

Possible FTX and Binance deal attracted attention from regulators. As well as other reasons that helped Bitcoin collapse

FTX and Binance deal attracted regulators, raising antitrust concerns. Regulators have the power to block major mergers. If they fear it will limit market choice. And there are strict laws against anticompetitive behavior.

Among other factors in a declining market is the tension between China and Taiwan. Because China is a pretty big player in the crypto market. Taiwan makes chips for mining. So this factor is important and pressures cryptocurrency prices down.

Another reason, our expert called the U.S. Congress elections. At the moment, Republicans are expected to win the elections to House of Representatives.

Cryptocurrency market sympathizes, first of all, with the Democratic Party. At least by the volume of investments in their election campaign. Foreign representatives of the cryptoindustry are betting exactly on Democrats.

In addition, all these problems of crypto-industry coincided with the growth of stock indices and weakening of USD.

Crypto market at an early stage of formation of the “bottom” ?

Buyers could not take advantage of the moment to pass the level of $22.5 ths. While USD is under pressure, and stock indices are set to rise. Buyers have a chance to return Bitcoin price to $20 ths. Now we need to wait for volatility to decrease. And exchanges FTX and Binance clarified the situation and their further actions, said our expert.

Our expert added that the current situation, which now presses the crypto market, could be a culmination of decline. Because the current situation in crypto industry may be the initial stage of forming a “bottom”. Because for many market participants such prices are of interest to increase buying volume or to enter this market.

Now there should be a set of factors that will be able to raise the price up. Therefore now the L-shaped recovery, rather than a sharp reversal of a bearish trend is more probable. If the situation with China and Taiwan does not worsen. It is unlikely that anything else can hurt the market more than it already has.

Our Crypto-Upvotes experts discussed how US dollar affects cryptocurrency market. And gave predictions about the further movement of leading cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin rate rose from $19.5 ths. to $21 ths. per day. Ethereum rose by 13% and passed the mark of $1.5 ths. Among the top 30 cryptocurrencies by capitalization, all coins, except stabelcoins, increased in value. Market capitalization of entire digital currencies market showed growth of 6.9% and exceeded $1.047 billion.

At the same time, the US dollar collapsed against the euro on Forex market to its lowest level in five weeks. For the first time in this time, the U.S. currency became cheaper than euro. Dollar index (DXY) is also near a three-week low.

Impact of dollar index on cryptocurrency rates

How Bitcoin and the crypto market in general behave is influenced by the U.S. Dollar Index. Our expert explained that the DXY index (U.S. Dollar Index) shows the dynamics of the dollar against a basket of major world currencies. Such as : Euro, Swiss Franc, Pound Sterling, Canadian Dollar, Japanese Yen and the Swedish Krona.

Thus, the index shows the growth or decline of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of currencies. When the index goes up, Bitcoin usually goes down. And when the index falls, Bitcoin goes up. This inverse correlation between the dollar index and Bitcoin was noticed a decade ago, and has been confirmed constantly since then.

Now Bitcoin’s rise above the $20,000 mark is due to the DXY index going down. The reason for this is the release of good reports by IT giants. As well as relatively positive data on the US labor market. And investors’ hopes that this information will lead FED to stop raising the rate.

Short-term strengthening of BTC or not?

However, despite some slowdown in U.S. inflation. The Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy. According to our expert, there is now too big a gap between inflation and the rate. Therefore, there is no reason to expect a strong slowdown in prices.

As early as next week at the meeting, Fed policymakers may raise the rate again by 75 bps (0.75%) to 4%. If FED declares that this trend will continue in the coming months, then today’s rate rally will be crossed out and sent to the trash garbage can.

According to our expert, we should expect in this case a new decrease of Bitcoin to the area of $15 thousand or even lower. Ethereum may go down to $1,000.

Under current conditions, cryptocurrency investors can liquidate futures positions. And make a profit by simply locking in profits on buy trades. Because there is no certainty that the current growth trend will continue now. Most likely, in the coming days it will be possible to observe the development of demand for the US dollar again.

What are prospects for growth of BTC?

Most likely, the trend of declining cryptocurrency rates may begin to change only in the first half of 2023. According to our expert, that is when the process of Fed’s monetary policy tightening may end. Or the step of rate increase will not exceed 0.25%. Then stock markets will start to form trends on increase of quotations. And on cryptocurrency market too, it will happen.

What events in the next month may lead to changes in the price of Bitcoin. And to what levels it can rise or fall

First Cryptocurrency has continued to trade in a relatively narrow range since mid-June 2022. Since then, the rate of BTC fell to a low of $17.6 ths. And at its peak, it reached $25.2 ths. Most of the time, cryptocurrency is near the mark of $20 ths.

Over the past month, the Bitcoin price range has become even narrower. Maximum value of the rate for the last 30 days reached $20.4 ths (October 6). The rate of Bitcoin fell to a minimum on the day of publication of the U.S. inflation data for September. At that time the price of BTC fell to $18.3 ths, but quickly recovered.

As of Oct. 24, the leading cryptocurrency is trading around $19,200, according to CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin has a market capitalization of $371 billion, with a daily trading volume of $28.8 billion. The asset’s share of the cryptocurrency market is 38.3%.

U.S. congressional elections and macroeconomics could affect BTC price

The U.S. Congressional elections are due in November, our Crypto-Upvotes experts note. Cryptocurrency and traditional markets are generally strong in the run-up to this election. However, our experts say it’s not quite right to expect the same rate behavior as it did after the last election. The previous congressional elections were held in early November 2020. The cryptocurrency market was in a bull market. And since then, Bitcoin has gone from $15k to $61k by April 2021.

But today both the stock market and the cryptocurrency market are still bearish. And the volatility in the cryptocurrency market is quite low. Therefore, no serious rally is expected from BTC. In case it fails to rise above $23k, the downward pressure will continue.

The bearish pressure is amplified by global macroeconomic weakness combined with the popularity of short ETFs on Bitcoin. This raises concerns about whether this time there will be a repeat of November 2018, when Bitcoin collapsed from $6k to $3k also after a long period of consolidation and low volatility.

Investors, primarily institutional investors, as in the stock market, always assess the situation in terms of the reaction of the Federal Reserve (Fed). As well as on macroeconomic data on the United States. Therefore, the price of BTC may react to further Fed Funds rate hikes.

Also, among important events for Bitcoin and the entire crypto market in November, our expert called the TOKEN2049 conference. It will be held from November 9 to 10 in London. Our expert noted that it will be attended by such well-known figures in the cryptocurrency community as Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz, Tezos co-founder Kathleen Breitman and Blockchain.com CEO Peter Smith.

There is hope that the rate will soon stop rising by 75 bps. (0,75%)

At least a “slight hope” that the rate will soon stop rising by 75 bps (0.75%) at the end of each meeting. . As well as reduction at least to 0.25% or suspension of increases. All this will lead to the development of a medium-term trend for growth i Bitcoin rate.

In this case, psychologically important level of $20K may be overcome. This will allow the bulls to rush to the levels of $24K and $28.3K in the coming month. More rapid growth looks too optimistic variant so far. But it may lead to $32 thousand and $36.8 ths, says our expert.

It’s also worth paying attention to the following levels in the price of BTC when it grows: $20.5 ths, then $22.8 ths. Reaching the same Bitcoin mark at $25 K will already mean the change of current bearish trend.

Signals for continuing a bear market trend

Signal to continue bear market could be the level of $16 K. Then we should pay attention to the level of $14 K, and, finally, $10 K.

In the coming month, Bitcoin may show a decline. First, price of the first cryptocurrency may fall to around $18 K, and later to the area of $15 K – $16 K. Our expert noted that it will be possible if Fed rate will continue to rise.