Our experts analyzed situation on the crypto market and told how the price of Bitcoin can change

The week of March 25-31 was relatively quiet. The following key factors influenced the crypto market. This is the dynamics of the U.S. dollar, stock indices and futures on them. As well as data on inflation in the U.S., measured by the PCE index, as well as the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell. News about the accusations against the KuCoin exchange caused concerns and led to a massive outflow of funds from the platform. But it did not have a strong impact on the market either and Bitcoin.

Last week’s analysis

On March 25, bitcoin showed a strong growth of 3.97% and closed at $69,880 per coin. This rise occurred after the bulls were able to overcome an important resistance level at $65,430 on Sunday. And that marked the break of the local downtrend.

On March 26, the BTC/USDT pair rose 0.15% to $69,988, hitting an intraday high of $71,561. Buyers took a pause, retreating to $69,280.

March 27 saw increased volatility. The BTC/USDT pair fell 0.74% to $69,469 after a failed attempt to break above $71,769. The price slipped 5% to $68,359, but did not go below this level.

On March 28, the BTC/USDT pair rose 1.89% to $70,780. The price touched $71,500 three times. But it failed to move higher because of the S&P 500 futures drawdown before the close of trading.

On March 29, trading on the BTC/USDT pair ended with a 1.31% decline to $69,850. Despite the buyers’ attempts to develop upward dynamics, they failed to hold the gained positions. During the U.S. session, the bitcoin rate fell to $69,000.

As on this day the exchanges of the USA and Europe were closed due to Easter holidays. The cryptocurrency market was deprived of the guidelines set by traditional markets. The pressure on prices could be exerted by the published data on inflation in the United States. As well as the speech of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell.

By the time the trading closed, the bitcoin price recovered to $69,850. And remaining within a four-day sideways trend with a range of $68,350 – $71,550 (the maximum of the week was $71,769).

U.S. inflation data and a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell

According to the released figures, inflation in the US, as measured by the change in the price index of personal consumption expenditures (PCE). And rose to 2.5% year-on-year in February. The core PCE price index also showed an increase. These data were in line with expectations. However, they did appear to have put some pressure on the market. As traditional exchanges were down, it was mostly bitcoin that reacted.

Rising inflation and Jerome Powell’s words about the need to keep rates high could mean the following. That the Federal Reserve will be cautious about changing rates. Market conditions and new employment data will be key factors for future Fed decisions between April 1 and April 7.

Important events expected this week and possible BTC price changes

This week will be full of publication of important macroeconomic indicators. Therefore, we should expect increased volatility in all markets. On April 3, Jerome Powell will make another speech.

Currently, bitcoin is in a sideways with a range of about 5% or $3450. The technical picture remains on the side of buyers. The only potential negative factor could be the strengthening of the dollar after the long weekend.
Possible technical resistance levels could be $72,650 and $73,800. According to BitRiver estimates, on the sellers’ side, $65,800 and $60,800 levels are the targets.

Our experts note that issuers of nine new spot bitcoin-ETFs. Which were launched on January 11, currently own more than 500 thousand BTC worth $35.2 billion at the current exchange rate. The first place by number of coins in the vault is occupied by BlackRock with about 250 thousand BTC. And in second place is Fidelity with about 150k BTC, and the top three is rounded out by Bitwise with 50k BTC. Before the upcoming halving, the demand for bitcoin remains high. And therefore, the support from institutional investors will remain for a long time.

Kaiko analysts note that the rate at which wallets with balances over $1 million are appearing is still below the previous Bitcoin bull market cycle

As the bitcoin exchange rate rises, an average of about 1,500 new “millionaire wallets” appear every day. And that hold $1 million or more worth of cryptocurrency. However, this figure is still lower than during the 2021 bull market, data provided by analytics platform Kaiko.

Transaction data on cryptocurrency wallets Bitcoin is public. But it is not possible to establish their belonging to a specific owner. Kaiko tools do not take into account the addresses of exchanges and other major crypto services.

The highest number of new wallets containing more than $1 million in bitcoins. And since the beginning of the year – 1,691 – was recorded on March 1. In 2020-2021, more than 4,000 wallets with a balance of about $1 million and more than 2,000 wallets with more than $10 million appeared every day.

In 2021, the crypto market was swept by a wave of retail investors eager to capitalize on the wave of excitement. However, in 2023, large investors behaved more cautiously. And sold their assets as bitcoin hit new highs, Kaiko writes.

Our experts note that the slower pace may also be due to the fact that the inflow of new capital has not yet gained momentum. And investors are storing their assets with trustees rather than in their personal wallets.

Our experts analyzed the market situation and told how it may change this week for Bitcoin and the market as a whole

During the period from January 22 to January 28, the Bitcoin price showed high volatility. During the week, Bitcoin traded in a wide range from $38,555 to $42,246.

On Monday, January 22, the price fell below the $40k mark, reaching $39,480. The drop was caused by the active outflow of funds from Grayscale’s bitcoin-ETF amid the endorsement of competing products.

On Tuesday, January 23, the Bitcoin price fell to a low of $38,555. And that led to a wave of liquidations in the futures market. The outflow from Grayscale continued to exert pressure.

On January 24 and 25, quotations consolidated in the range of $39,484 – $40,555 with multidirectional dynamics. High volatility remained on the market. Market participants were waiting for some new portion of positive news.

On Friday, January 26, at the end of the day, the BTC/USD pair rose by 4.66% to $41,823. Buyers managed to stop the collapse of the crypto market. After a 13-day drop of 21% from the January 11 high of $48,969, the price recovered 9.57% to $42,246. They have reversed the drop for January 22, and this is a positive for the whole market.

Reasons for the fall in the price of  Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s downward correction has been largely attributed to redemptions in Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). Before GBTC was converted into an ETF on January 11. And it was one of the few ways for U.S. investors to access BTC without owning the underlying cryptocurrency. After the long-awaited approval on Jan. 10, investors took the opportunity to sell their GBTC units, locking in profits on their trades. This meant an exit from the cryptocurrency market, hence the downward pressure on the bitcoin price. Outflows from the fund totaled nearly $4 billion.

The price bounced off the $38,555 support. The recovery accelerated after JPMorgan said that the peak of GBTC sales is mostly over. The upward correction intensified from the European session with the decline in the dollar index. The outflow of funds from the Grayscale trust slowed down, which led to an easing of pressure on the cryptocurrency.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF iShares (IBIT) has had a significant impact on the cryptocurrency investment industry. In just 10 days after the fund’s launch, the company has accumulated $1,982,095,794 or 49952.32570 BTC (from a report from BlackRock’s website) in assets under management (AUM) after the fund’s launch and market cap. The amount indicates a lot of interest among investors. At the current exchange rate, it is already over $2 billion.

When the price correction will end

Cautious investors have now taken a wait-and-see attitude. As this is only the first upward wave after the market collapse. Then sellers will check buyers once again. And how ready they are to defend the $38,555 level and raise the rate to $69k for Bitcoin by the halving, which will take place around April 20.

BitRiver predicts that the decline phase will end on February 10. Then we can test the level of $50 thousand. In order to support the bullish trend from the low of $24,901 from September 11, 2023. The higher the buyers drive the price, the less likely it is to update the $38,555 support.

There is great news for buyers now – a pin–bar is forming on the weekly chart – a green body with a long lower shadow. Our experts remind that the fall from $48,969 started with such an inverted candle. And this is a bid for growth up to $45 thousand.

Important events of this week

The economic calendar is quite full of important data. January 30 will see the release of Eurozone GDP data for the fourth quarter. January 31 will see the release of China’s manufacturing PMI for January. And oil inventory reports from the American Petroleum Institute and the U.S. Department of Energy, the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting and J. Powell’s press conference. On February 1, the States will publish the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector. And on February 2 – a report on the employment market (unemployment, new jobs, average hourly earnings). And also the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan for January.

As for the Federal Reserve’s next moves, CME Group’s FedWatch tool predicts a rate hike at next Wednesday’s (Jan. 31) Fed meeting with a 96.7% probability. Votes in March are split, but the probability of a cut in May is estimated at around 87%.

Our experts analyzed the market situation and told us how it may change this week and what will be the price of Bitcoin

In the past week, Bitcoin’s dynamics were determined primarily by the external background – the U.S. dollar, stock indicators and decisions of crypto market regulators.

After a sharp drop on January 12, Bitcoin price consolidated in the range of $41,500 – $43,500 for five days. On January 16, a local maximum was reached at $43,578. However, the excitement around the launch of the bitcoin-ETF in the US did not lead to sustained growth.

The pressure remained amid the strengthening of the dollar. And the negative dynamics of stock indices and continued outflows from the Grayscale fund. From January 11-17 alone, $1.624 billion was withdrawn from Grayscale.

On January 18, the SEC postponed its decision on Ethereum-ETF launch applications until March 5. This disappointed investors and triggered a resumption of the downgrade. On the day, BTC dropped to $40,630, and at the end of the day, it lost 3.4%, dropping to $41,327.

On Friday, January 18, the BTC/USD pair closed with growth. The price rose by 0.80%, to $41,659. At the beginning of the U.S. session, the bitcoin exchange rate was declining to $40,280. Sellers tried to pass the support of $40,500, but failed. Buyers were supported by two factors: the decline in the dollar index and the growth of stock indices. By the close of the day, the price went into the plus side. At the same time, all 11 bitcoin-ETFs showed growth of about 2%.

Despite Friday’s decline, the US Dollar Index (DXY) ended the week in the plus on the back of rising US bond yields. And lower probability of rate cuts in March and May. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of interest rate cuts in March and May is 46% and 51%, respectively, compared to 76.9% and 17% as of Jan. 12.

Bitcoin price

Bitcoin is at $40,600+ at the time of writing this review. Our experts note that the price may trade above the key support of $40,500 until February 6. The downward movement from $48,969 to $40,280 has a three-wave formation. This means that the price may return to the level of $44,300 by January 23. A return to it would not be a signal to buy bitcoin. The probability of the price dropping to $38,500 by February 10 is more than 75%.

Buyers needed to go above $50k before January 8. Now it is necessary to form a bridgehead for a new rally before the halving in April. Trading volumes on spot bitcoin-ETFs are not bad. But the outflows from the Grayscale fund are very large, which makes many investors nervous.

If the trading range of $40,000 – $44,500 with an upward bias is maintained until February 10. Then the probability of a drop to $38,500 will be greatly reduced. According to BitRiver’s forecasts, buyers need to pass the $44,500 level. In order to level out the “bearish” sentiment. We follow the news on ETFs, the dynamics of the dollar index and the S&P 500.

Among the key events in the week that may affect the dynamics of the dollar and cryptocurrencies: the publication of data on U.S. GDP (January 25) and U.S. inflation (January 26). Bitcoin belongs to the class of risky assets, so it is sensitive to the value of DXY.

Weekly feature: our experts analyzed the market situation and told how it may change in the short term for Bitcoin

The week from July 31 to August 6 was relatively quiet. The BTC/USDt pair traded in the range of $28,585 – $30,047. Increased volatility in the market was observed on August 1 and 2. On August 1, the price of Bitcoin fell to $28,585. The market was pressurized by fears of regulatory action by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding the crypto projects Hex, PulseChain and PulseX. The hack of the Curve crypto exchange was also negatively impacted. And as a result of which hackers stole about $50 million. Despite the fall in quotes in the first half of the day, the daily candle closed with growth at $29,705.

On August 2, Bitcoin was recovering to $30,047. There are two reasons that may have provided support for buyers:

The first one is the release of MicroStrategy’s Q2 2023 report. The company made a profit for Q2 and purchased 12,333 BTC. As of July 31, the company owns 152,800 BTC. The total BTC purchase price is $4.53 billion at an average price of $29,672 per 1 BTC.

Second – Fitch Ratings downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA+ due to a growing budget deficit and a buildup of government debt. The downgrade had a limited impact on the markets. And since with such debt it is an expected event. U.S. government debt service has nearly reached $1 trillion a year. At this rate, debt interest payments will soon become a major spending item in the U.S. budget. Hardly anyone will repay the debt. The share of the dollar is declining in international settlements and in central bank reserves. No matter what anyone says, U.S. bonds are becoming toxic.

Analysis of other factors

Friday’s U.S. labor market data points to a continued slowdown in job growth. 187,000 jobs were created in July. And that is below forecasts. And the figures for June were revised downward to 185k. That’s the smallest job gain since December 2020.

Although the unemployment rate has fallen. And wages have risen, the low rate of job growth suggests the labor market is gradually cooling under the influence of the Fed’s tighter monetary policy and a slowing economy. Companies are cutting back on hiring because of rising costs and an uncertain outlook.

Overall, the data points to weakening employee attitudes and cooling labor demand. This could have a dampening effect on inflation and cause the Fed to slow the pace of rate hikes. Nevertheless, the labor market remains relatively resilient despite the slowdown.

Despite a relatively quiet week in terms of economic events, the key indicator will be the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), which will be released on August 10. It will give an indication of the inflation rate and could affect the US Dollar’s performance and the Fed’s monetary policy expectations.

The dollar ended last week on a weak note after a five-day rally. And the question is whether it was a correction of the uptrend or the beginning of its reversal. Overall, the US inflation report will be a key benchmark in the coming week to understand the outlook for the dollar and monetary policy. Bitcoin did not take advantage of the dollar’s weakness, and that’s a bad thing, as its rebound and a decline in U.S. stock indices could bring down the market more.

Buyers’ activity in the crypto market is low due to fears of a new market crash

The U.S. Attorney’s Office is preparing charges against Binance. However, it fears that it may provoke a massive outflow of user funds, as in the case of the bankrupt FTX.

DOJ officials are rumored to be concerned that filing criminal fraud charges against Binance could cause panic. And mass withdrawals by customers, causing them to lose money and destabilize the entire cryptocurrency market.

Therefore, prosecutors are considering alternative options to punish Binance, such as fines, deferred prosecution, or a settlement agreement. This would avoid a harsh reaction from investors and negative consequences for the industry. A decision on what charges will ultimately be brought against Binance has not yet been made and is under review by the US Department of Justice.

Prospects

Our experts note that despite the local recovery, buyers failed to gain a strong foothold above $30 th. The price Bitcoin stabilized around $28,950, where it traded until the end of the week amid the absence of positive triggers. The key support level is the $28,250 mark. If the trend line from the low of $16,333 does not hold. The risks of falling to $25,250 will increase sharply. According to seasonal cycles, the bearish phase should last until September. BitRiver estimates that Bitcoin needs to break through the resistance at $30,500 for the situation to turn bullish.

Our experts talked about the causes of growth in the price of Bitcoin and how it will behave in the near future

Between June 15 and June 22, 2023, the most capitalized cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), went up nearly 24%. The coin crossed the local maximum, which was fixed on April 14, 2023 at the level of $30,958.

Bitcoin, followed by the whole market of digital assets, went up on the background of a number of positive news. Our experts believe that the driver could be the renewed race by major corporations for the right to obtain permission. This will make it possible to launch the first Bitcoin-based spot exchange traded fund (ETF) in the U.S. market and the interest of large companies in cryptocurrencies.

On June 15, it became known that BlackRock, a major investment firm, filed an application with the SEC to launch a bitcoin trust. This company’s initiative, if approved, could simplify institutional access to the crypto industry, our experts say.

On June 20, Deutsche Bank, one of Germany’s largest financial conglomerates, announced its intention to provide cryptocurrency services. In parallel, Wall Street giants Citadel, Fidelity and Charles Schwab launched their own decentralized crypto exchange. On June 21, one of the world’s largest investment firms, Invesco, applied to launch a spot Bitcoin ETF. All this news had a positive impact on cryptocurrency rates.

Major companies enter cryptoindustry

Interestingly, large companies enter the crypto industry despite the fact that it is under pressure from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

It is noteworthy that not only members of the crypto community do not approve of the SEC’s actions. But also representatives of the authorities. For example, Warren Davidson, a member of the House Committee on Financial Services, suggested that the current head of the regulator, Gary Gensler, should be fired.

Also after this news was the statement of the head of FRS Jerome Powell about the need to connect the Federal Reserve to regulate the stablecoin market. Which he called “a form of money” rather than securities.

Powell’s hints about the possibility of further rate hikes should also not be forgotten. Since the U.S. inflation target has not yet been reached. And rate changes could put pressure on the stock market, followed by the movements of cryptocurrencies.

To summarize the intermediate results, active market growth was realized amid unprecedented pressure from U.S. regulators on the crypto industry. The interest of large corporations in cryptocurrencies in the current market conditions looks suspicious.

Possible further growth

In order to expect further growth, for example, to the levels of $40 thousand and $45 thousand. It is necessary for the price to fix above the maximums of April in the nearest days.

Our experts expect further growth of BTC price this year. A lot of fundamental factors point to it. But it’s hard to say for sure whether the growth of recent days is the movement that will lead the price to further significant growth.

It is possible that the slight sideways dynamics, observed over the last couple of months, will continue on BTC for a while longer.

Crypto Upvotes experts told about what will affect the price of Bitcoin. And to what levels its price may rise or fall

On June 13, Bitcoin price is fluctuating around the mark of $25.8 thousand. On the weekend of June 10-11, the price of the asset fell to $25.5 thousand. As well as many altcoins from the top 100 cryptocurrencies lost 20-25% in price. At the beginning of the week, rates rose slightly and BTC recovered to around $26k.

After it became known today that the growth of inflation in the US slowed down from 4.9% to 4% year-on-year in May (better than the forecast of 4.1%). Then immediately the rate of Bitcoin rose to $26.35 thousand, but then fell back to $26 thousand.

Recovery from collapse

Bitcoin hit the $26.2K mark, even though it was trading at $25,500 on the weekend. Last week, its price was down 7.5%. This was affected by the fall of BTC/USDT pair on June 5 (down to $25,700 from intraday low of $25,300) and charges of illegal operation, filed against Binance by Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The lawsuit against Coinbase for allegedly violating securities trading rules did not add to the positivity either. We see a targeted campaign by the U.S. administration against crypto-exchanges. And recently, similar accusations were made against Bittrex and Kraken exchanges.

That said, the U.S.-based Bittrex began bankruptcy proceedings on May 8 following an April 17 SEC lawsuit. Kraken, meanwhile, continues to operate. But in February it agreed to pay $30 million in fines and refused to provide stacking services.

The tokens that fell the hardest over the weekend were the tokens that the regulator recognized as securities – BNB (BNB), Cardano (ADA) and Solana (SOL). Bitcoin was also affected. Its high last week was $27,39 thousand, which was followed by a decrease in price.

While investors continue to “speculate” on new crypto industry news. The major cryptocurrency is starting to recover. Our experts believe that already tomorrow we will see a rate of $26.4 thousand, and by the end of the week it will approach $27.2 thousand.

Support and resistance levels of BTC

The first target this week is to get back to the closing level of Friday, June 9, on the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group). It was $26.47 th.

Then, up to $27K, there is dense, saturated resistance. It will be very difficult to overcome this level.

Support lines of BTC at the moment are at the levels of $25.2 ths and $24.4 ths.

This week the market is expecting more volatility on June 14. On that day, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet and the U.S. interest rate decision will be released.

Negative and positive scenarios

SEC lawsuits and the recognition of a number of altcoins as securities may cause crypto investors to choose to withdraw assets from altcoins and move them into Bitcoin. But for now, the overall situation is in the hands of the bears. And Bitcoin is unlikely to rise in the coming week.

It is unlikely that the price of BTC will fall below $24k, but it won’t be able to grow above $28k either. In other words, in the next 7 days the price of the asset will fluctuate in this range.

The negative scenario is that a criminal prosecution of Binance, which was warned about by former SEC lawyer John Reed Stark, could be launched. That would bring Bitcoin down to $20,000 – the level of the regional average cost of mining it.

The positive scenario is that the situation will quiet down for a few months. And there will be no criminal prosecution in the coming weeks. In that case, Bitcoin will be able to strengthen its position and return to the $28,000 mark. And maybe even test $30k. But so far, such a possibility is seen at best in the perspective of three to four weeks.

Lightning Network protocol allows cryptocurrency payments almost instantly and without fees. Our experts tell us how the solution works, who supports it. And why it is not yet popular in the crypto market

When the Bitcoin blockchain was flooded with memcoins in BRC-20 token format in early May. The cryptocurrency faced congestion and prohibitively high fees. The world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, Binance, was forced to shut down the ability to withdraw Bitcoins twice a day. Until an acceptable level of load on the network returns. Representatives of the exchange announced that its development team is working on integrating transfers through a solution called Lightning Network. Which, in their words, “helps well in such situations.”

The Lightning Network (LN) protocol is Bitcoin’s scaling system, acting as one solution to the problem of its limited bandwidth. With its help it is possible to carry out almost instant transfers of coins with minimal commissions.

The protocol concept was first introduced in a technical paper titled Lightning Network for Bitcoin: The Bitcoin Lightning Network: Scalable Off-Chain Instant Payments in 2015. It was authored by developers Joseph Poon and Thaddeus Drija. Since Lightning Network’s inception, the developer community has been working collectively to improve both the protocol itself. And on applications and tools that support LN transactions.

How it works

If we think of Bitcoin as a huge highway. And where countless vehicles (transactions) compete for limited space. The Lightning Network protocol acts as a dedicated lane. And which allows you to bypass a congested main road. This is achieved by creating special payment channels. In which transactions can take place instantly, with minimal fees and without the need to write each of them to the Bitcoin blockchain.

To open such a channel, participants in a coin transfer create a common address and fund it with a certain amount in Bitcoins. They can then transfer funds to each other. And the balance data on their addresses will be updated within the channel. When they close the channel, the final balance will already be written to the Bitcoin blockchain as a separate transaction.

Payment channels can be created using wallets or other Lightning Network enabled software. You can use someone else’s channel as an intermediary for transfers. And in this case, the one who opened it will receive a small commission. Since the transactions take place outside the blockchain. It is impossible to identify a separate identifier for a particular transfer. Or see its data in the blockchain browser.

What prevents this project from distributing

Despite the existing way of solving one of Bitcoin’s major problems. The Lightning Network protocol is still a long way from mass adoption. Both for private users and for businesses. The technical complexities involved in creating and managing the channels act as a significant barrier for ordinary users. LN-enabled cryptocurrencies. These tend to be non-commercial developments that suffer greatly in interface design and user experience (UX).

In addition, the lack of standards for protocols hinders the interoperability of LN-enabled software developed by different teams. This makes it difficult to connect new users. And integrating the protocol into large platforms, whose owners are obviously interested in cheaper and faster coin transfers. Another problem is the limitation of liquidity in channels. Participants are forced to block a certain amount of Bitcoin in the channel. And that in itself limits the amount of funds available for transfer and reduces the usefulness of the protocol as a whole.

The relative newness and limited acceptance of the Lightning Network creates a certain paradox. The fact is that few people trust the protocol without its widespread adoption. And its diffusion, in turn, is constrained by the relatively small number of stakeholders willing to use it.

This is largely due to the fact that the Lightning Network is itself a non-profit project. And its infrastructure development is done by volunteers. The opposite is the case with Ethereum. For example, network scaling projects like Polygon, Arbitrum, Optimism, zkSync. And others have already formed an entire industry and are worth billions of dollars.

Projects and investments

However, investors are supporting projects that integrate Lightning Network into their payment solutions. In August 2022, Lightning Labs raised $80 million in funding to develop the Taro. Which allows transactions with stablecoins using the Lightning Network. Investors in the project include former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey and Robinhood payment company CEO Vlad Tenyev.

Also in the same period, the investment round was held by Strike. It managed to attract $80 million, which it will use to establish partnerships with major retailers to connect its own wallet. As well as acquiring for retail outlets on the basis of LN. Investors have cumulatively invested about $10 million in Amboss and Mash platforms. And both are also building LN-based payment solutions.

Bitcoin’s scaling is one of the cryptocurrency’s biggest challenges. As fees and network load increase, solutions to optimize transfers will become more and more relevant. The Lightning Network protocol is quite well-known in the community. But there are still a lot of things hindering its diffusion.

Simplifying user interfaces. And promoting interoperability and improving the overall user experience. These are also important steps toward making Lightning Network technology more accessible. Improving liquidity management and security measures. Just as important to instill confidence in users of this protocol.

Our experts tell us how BRC-20 tokens emerged on top of Bitcoin. And why trading in new memcoins led to a record increase in commissions

A new kind of token has appeared in the Bitcoin blockchain, around which there has been a serious speculative frenzy. Most of these tokens are so-called memcoins. Which are named after famous memes and carry no utility or functionality. In spite of this, they have cumulatively risen by tens of thousands of percent in a few weeks. And provoked a record increase in commissions for transfers within the BTC network.

A new mania around memcoins began with the PEPE coin. Anonymous developers launched it in April, and speculators inflated its capitalization to a billion dollars in just three weeks of its existence.

The interest in memcoins created in the Bitcoin blockchain comes from more familiar token-creating networks such as Ethereum or Solana. The excitement swelled to the point that the volume of trading in Bitcoin Frogs collection tokens (the equivalent of Bitcoin token format NFTs) from May 17 to 18 exceeded that of the NFT market’s main “blue chip” – the Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) collection.

New BRC-20 standard

Tokens of the standard named BRC-20 (similar to ERC-20 in Ethereum). They are digital assets that can be created and transferred on the Bitcoin blockchain using the Ordinals protocol. This standard allows data to be written into satoshi and turned into tokens.

The Ordinals protocol has enabled the growth of memcoins placed on the Bitcoin blockchain. But they have no utility whatsoever. Instead, traders are buying them solely for speculative purposes. Tens of thousands of BRC-20 tokens have been issued since the protocol went live in March. And their combined market capitalization has exceeded $1 billion. The ORDI memcoin, which refers to the name of the Ordinal protocol. But probably not related to its developers, is the largest at the time of publication with a capitalization of about $300 million.

Amid high demand, cryptocurrency exchange OKX announced the launch of its own marketplace for trading BRC-20 tokens. And Binance previously announced plans to add support for them on its NFT platform.

The entire current capitalization of new tokens in the Bitcoin network is essentially taken up by memcoins alone. And the Ordinals protocol itself has severely limited functionality compared to Ethereum’s ERC-20 capabilities.

But BRC-20 could be a long-shot story. If the teams that focus on building infrastructure solutions on Bitcoin (wallets, bridges, credit protocols, etc.) now have money flowing in from major venture capital funds. Also, don’t forget that it adds to the attractiveness of Bitcoin itself, says our expert.

High commissions in BTC network

High commissions

The result of the growing demand for memcoins was a surge in Bitcoin transaction fees. And a queue of unconfirmed transactions formed. Transactions related to BRC-20 filled the network. And led to a high load on it, causing the commissions paid to miners to reach the highest level since April 2021. Since the beginning of May, the average fees have risen about 1,500%, to $31 per simple coin transfer.

When Bitcoin’s transaction blocks are full, the transactions with the highest fees are confirmed first. The pending transactions are in a so-called mempool, waiting for confirmation. If under an adequate load on the network, transfers are confirmed in no more than 10 minutes on average. In this abnormal scenario it is possible to wait up to several hours for transfer confirmation. If not to send it with overestimated commission.

Bitcoin’s pool of unconfirmed transactions has skyrocketed from about 10,000 transactions to more than 350,000 transactions. And that triggered an increase in fees globally. But it turned out to be a lucky scenario for miners, whose income increased visibly.

In total, there were more than 4 million BRC-20 transactions in May. And that represents 60% of all Bitcoin transactions. For the first time in many years, a block of BTC transactions exceeded the fixed fee of the miner (6.25 BTC) who mined that block. This was due to the high demand for space in the blockchain, which was triggered by transactions involving the transfer or issuance of BRC-20 tokens.

Such a situation is abnormal according to our experts. Some Bitcoin developers have expressed dissatisfaction with high commissions. And declared about the fight against such tokens. Miners, on the contrary, benefit from the development of this standard. Which brings them more income from commissions. But on the other hand, blockchain congestion will reduce the popularity of Bitcoin. We need to look for a solution that will satisfy investors and miners, says our expert.

Effects and solutions to problems with high commissions

BRC-20 tokens reflect the process of possible future experimentation in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Even if memcoins end up being a passing fad of the cryptocurrency community. They are already having a tangible effect. It may turn out that memcoins will spur developers to further experiment at the base level of Bitcoin. And that will lead to new scenarios for its use. And new sources of demand for space within transaction blocks. This, in turn, could lead to more sustainable commission growth.

The commission market is critical to the existence and security of the Bitcoin network. Because in the future they will have to compensate miners for the diminishing reward per block during subsequent halving cycles.

Rising transaction fees could also force leading cryptoservices to use “second-tier” technology to cut costs. When a sharp rise in fees forced the Binance exchange to temporarily suspend Bitcoin withdrawals. And its head Changpeng Zhao wrote on social media that he was considering adding Lightning Network support to the exchange. This is a fairly well-known, but not yet widespread second-tier payment protocol. Which is built on top of Bitcoin and designed for much faster and cheaper transfers.

Estimates of the implications of the popularity of BRC-20 tokens vary depending on who is making them. Miners, for example, are happy, of course, as their profitability has increased because of the load on the network. But ordinary users are definitely not used to paying a commission and still getting in a huge queue. That is why major market players are thinking about integrating Lighting Network, but it also takes time.

BRC-20 standard cannot compete with ERC-20

Importantly, BRC-20 tokens prevent Bitcoin from competing with Ethereum as a platform for smart contracts, especially at the basic level. A dynamic ecosystem of decentralized applications is deployed on the Ethereum blockchain. This includes credit protocols, NFT, games, social networks and other Web3 applications. Developers can create them using the Solidity programming language. Which allows a wide range of functions and program logic to be implemented. Bitcoin’s base code doesn’t come close to having those capabilities.

Some traders have managed to make high profits by trading memcoins. However, average market participants should be cautious. Historically, memcoins exhibit high volatility and low liquidity. And their prices often only show a decline after a collapse from their peak values during hype.

Perhaps in the future Bitcoin blockchain infrastructure projects will open up investment opportunities. But high fees will certainly remain a stumbling block, especially when the crypto market is bullish.

Our experts named the reasons for the large “queue” of transactions in BTC network. And described the ways to solve this problem, as well as its impact on the price of the leading digital asset.

At the beginning of May, the daily number of transactions in Bitcoin network renewed its historical maximum at 685 thousand. This happened amid a surge of activity associated with the issue of bitcoin-NFT or Ordinals.

The ability to issue tokens on the Bitcoin network appeared in late January. And since then more than 4.69 million of them were created. More than 789 BTC ($21.9 million) were spent as commissions.

As of May 8, there are still more than 455,000 transactions waiting to be confirmed in the first cryptocurrency blockchain. Which is a record high. Experts told what the formation of such a queue could lead to.

Reasons and solutions

Queuing is a fairly typical situation for PoW blockchains. And many factors can affect it, but the main reason is always associated with a sharp increase in interest in intra-network transfers.

Our experts say that the problem develops further very quickly. As the queue generates an even bigger queue, similar to the traffic jams that form from traffic jams when people try to avoid them. In blockchains, users start to raise fees. And all new transactions get stuck, while old ones may stay in the mempool (transaction queue, mempool) for weeks until the load is reduced.

There is no direct solution to this situation, says our expert. In general, the “scalability problem” is the main reason to criticize the consensus mechanism Proof-of-Work (PoW), on which Bitcoin works. But our expert noted that there are local ways around this problem. For example, such as “replace-by-fee” or “child-pays-for-parent” mechanisms.

“Replace-by-fee” allows you to directly change the amount of commission in a transaction already sent to the waiting list. But very few wallets support this feature. And to enable it, it should have been provided for in advance: the transaction should have been sent with the parameter enabled. Which allows you to replace the commission already after the transaction has been sent.

The “child-pays-for-parent” function implies sending a new transaction from a wallet. To which the change from the previous transaction with the knowingly overrated commission must come. This is such that it would be profitable for miners to process two transactions at once.

The problem of scalability is partially solved by the use of L2 solutions. For example, there is a Lightning Network superstructure for Bitcoin, which does not load the main blockchain. The widespread implementation of this technology will help prevent queues in the future.

Impact on Bitcoin price

The current significant queue in the BTC network is unlikely to affect the value of the asset in the moment. But it does create a number of questions for what is happening around the Bitcoin blockchain.

If before the BTC network seemed to market participants something fundamental, stable, which is very difficult to change. And, as a consequence, difficult to deteriorate in its parameters. After the emergence of projects like Ordinals, Bitcoin no longer seems to be a cryptocurrency ” constant.

The fact that thousands of enthusiasts in the Bitcoin network can now create NFT using the experimental script BRC-20. This expands the capabilities of the project, but creates no additional value for BTC. Our expert noted that the Bitcoin blockchain has never been known for scaling as it is. And in times of stress and strong movements of the cryptocurrency market, transactions in the network, compared to other blockchains, were very slow at all.

Now, against the backdrop of a growing number of transactions. And at the moment the number of transactions “in the queue” exceeded 400 thousand, the network’s fees have also increased, which adds to the negativity.

Thus, over time, the perception of Bitcoin as the first asset of the market may shift towards other projects. Which will offer reliable, fast and profitable transactions. Thus, the events of today may lead to a decrease in interest and capitalization of BTC in the long run.

However, there is no clear competitor at the moment. Therefore, market participants will continue to use Bitcoin. Current price movements are unlikely to be affected by these processes. But in the long term, such an “evolution” of the Bitcoin network raises questions.