What will happen to cryptocurrency prices in October. Several forecast from Crypto-Upvotes experts

Our experts told us about possible price movements for cryptocurrencies in coming weeks. And gave forecast for their prices in accordance with different variants of events development

On October 13, after the publication of inflation data in the U.S., leading cryptocurrencies updated their price lows. Bitcoin rate fell to $18.3 thousand, less than the last time it was worth on June 20, when it was trading about $18.2 thousand. Also Ethereum showed decline – it fell to $1.2 thousand, updating its minimum since mid-July.

But by October 14 Bitcoin had recovered to the level of $19.8 thousand, the daily growth was 5.4%. Аnd Ethereum also rose in price by 7.2%. And the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $980 billion, which is 5.5% more than a day ago.

Current situation on crypto market

Macroeconomics is the leading factor for cryptocurrency markets right now. Our experts notice that after the new release of inflation data in the U.S., there was a rare volatility in leading indices. But at the same time, the sharp drop was just as sharply bought back by investors. Cryptocurrencies reacted in a similar way.

Crypto market heavyweights such as Bitcoin and Ethereum are hardly reacting to events in the cryptosphere right now. However, there are not many negative factors. The main factor “confusing crypto-enthusiasts” is the trend toward tighter regulation in many countries. Because this brings cryptocurrencies closer to traditional asset classes.

Also, cryptocommunity is concerned about the decline of decentralization. Or the lack of growth of this indicator in many blockchains. In addition, the outflow of capital from GameFi, NFT and Metaverses markets looks logical against the background of energy crisis and risks of recession in economics.

Negative forecast scenarios

In case of a prolonged fall in Bitcoin, it is possible that those miners who have been working at a loss for a long time will capitulate. This is likely to lead to a decrease in the level of support. And it will bring Bitcoin’s price down to around $14,000 or $10,000.

Large capital is now panicking and seeking to withdraw funds in stablecoins and US dollar. The most likely scenario is that bitcoin will drop to $17,800 in coming weeks.

In addition, the fall in Bitcoin is accompanied by the biggest sell-offs of miners in the last 2 years – about 8,000 BTC per month (according to Glassnode). This has also influenced the rate of BTC decline and overall current market sentiment, our Crypto-Upvotes experts say.

Positive forecast scenarios

Crypto-Upvotes experts called a scenario in which cryptocurrency rates will start growing in the near future unlikely. However, if Bitcoin breaks through resistance level of $20.4 thousand, it will be possible to see movement to $22.5 thousand, our expert believes.

Positive factors that could support cryptocurrency rates are hard to find right now. At the same time, the option to increase prices of cryptocurrencies should not be discarded either. Because investors are eager to redeem assets at lower prices right now.

According to our expert, it could lead to overcoming the level of $1.4 ths for Ethereum. Bitcoin may initially reach a psychologically important level of $20,000. And its overcoming will lead to increase of BTC price up to $22 ths.

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BNY Mellon, oldest bank in the U.S., offers storage services for BTC and ETH

BNY Mellon licensed from New York state regulator to handle two cryptocurrencies. Review by Crypto-Upvotes experts

The oldest U.S. bank BNY Mellon began to provide services for cryptocurrency storage, writes The Wall Street Journal. For this purpose, the company received a license from the financial regulator of New York.

Bank will store the keys needed to access and transfer the cryptocurrency. It will also provide accounting services for Bitcoin and Ethereum.

BNY Mellon claims to be the first of eight systemically important U.S. banks to provide custody services for digital currencies. And it allows customers to use one custody platform for both traditional and cryptocurrency assets.

The platform will go live with select investment-fund firms this week. The bank said it expects to expand its crypto custody offerings to additional clients in the future, pending regulatory approvals.

In the summer of 2021, BNY  joined a group of six banks that plan to launch Pure Digital, a digital asset trading platform. At the time, the bank said it would roll out cryptocurrency infrastructure as the legal and regulatory framework emerged.

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Bitcoin mining difficulty increased by 13.5% and broke the previous record

This is largest increase in Bitcoin mining complexity since May 2021. Cryptocurrency mining complexity rises as computing power grows

On Oct. 10, the Bitcoin mining difficulty increased 13.55%. This was the biggest increase since May 2021, when complexity jumped 21.5%. Usually the figure increases or decreases within 10% every two weeks. The previous record was set on September 14, when the complexity reached 32.05T (difficulty target).

Explanation
Network complexity determines amount of computing power required to find a new block in the bitcoin blockchain. This parameter changes every 2016 blocks, or about once every two weeks. This is necessary to maintain block time of about 10 minutes.

According to BTC.com, complexity is now 35.61 T at 259.52 EH/s, which has also become a high figure. This increase in numbers suggests that the number of miners is increasing and the competition among them is growing.

At the same time, given the current price of Bitcoin, the profitability of mining is close to zero. According to our experts, at a price of $20,000 per Bitcoin, profitability of mining companies is already close to the cost of production (about $15,000-17,000). And in some cases it goes into negative values.

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Increased Bitcoin mining will speed up reduction in mining profits, review by our Crypto-Upvotes experts

Bitcoin halving could happen a few months earlier than anticipated review by our Crypto-Upvotes experts

Due to the increase in Bitcoin mining volumes, next halving (planned reduction of miners’ rewards) may occur several months earlier than predicted. According to analyst portal The TIE – it may happen as early as Q4 2023.

BTC Halving is reducing twice rewards for a mined block. This was originally built into rules of BTC network. At first, miners received 50 BTC per mined block. Then on November 28, 2012, rewards were reduced to 25 BTC. And on July 9, 2016, to 12.5 BTC, and on May 11, 2020, to 6.25 BTC. Next halving is to take place on block 840,000. Presumably, production of which was announced as May 3, 2024.

Usually, for calculating halving dates, average Bitcoin block mining time of 10 minutes is used. But analytics platforms use constantly updated blockchain statistics to calculate. And to estimate current average Bitcoin block mining time, and then use that number for calculations. According to analysts, this makes the countdown more accurate. A similar method is used by CoinMarketCap platform. Which predicts halving also earlier than planned – in February 2024.

Analysts say that the reason why hashrate is approaching is that there is an increase in BTC mining. Now hashrate network has reached historical highs of more than 284 EH/s.

 

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Crypto scammers fake Apple presentations on YouTube, Crypto-Upvotes review

Tens of thousands of viewers watched fake Apple streams with interviews of Tim Cook and Elon Musk promoting cryptocurrencies

Crypto Scammers took advantage of the fact that Apple was holding a presentation of a new phone on September 7. And launched parallel streams on YouTube promoting cryptocurrencies, allegedly on behalf of their company. Tens of thousands of viewers watched live spoofed old interviews with Tim Cook and Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Currently, these videos have been deleted.

Scammers on YouTube was live streaming an old interview with Tim Cook. That was seemingly being used to attract attention to a crypto scam. And when it was live, tens of thousands of viewers were tuning.

If you’ve seen crypto scams on YouTube before. You would have recognized a lot of hallmarks of what was going on. The fake live stream was getting attention by filling its description with an array of Apple keywords in both the title and description. But when you actually opened it up, it was filled with odd messages linking to a shady-looking crypto site.

One video titled “Apple Event Live. Ceo of Appl Tim Cook: Apple & Metaverse in 2022” aired an old interview from 2018. Bitcoin and Ethereum logos were added to this video. The number of viewers was up to 70,000.

Our experts have noticed that at the same time, more than 10 thousand people watched another stream on a channel called “Apple Inc”. Allegedly, it was supposed to contain an interview with Tim Cook and Elon Musk about Apple and the metaverse. But in fact it was a faked interview about bitcoins with CEO of Tesla and ex-Chief Twitter Jack Dorsey.

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Cryptoinvestor withdrew $96 million worth of Bitcoin, which has risen 29-fold in 9 years, Crypto-Upvotes expert review

In 2013, an Cryptoinvestor bought 5,000 BTC at about $660 per coin. Now he withdrew Bitcoin, which is currently trading at $19000+

On September 5, an Cryptoinvestor withdrew 5,000 BTC ($96 million at exchange rate at time of transaction) from address, which had been inactive for last 9 years. In 2013, a crypto investor bought Bitcoin at a price of about $660 per coin. During this period, investments increased in value 29 times.

Recently, more and more old holders have begun to withdraw Bitcoin from their wallets. On night of March 10, сryptoinvestor withdrew 489 BTC ($20 million at the time of transaction). His wallet had been inactive for at least 11 years. Unknown bought 489 BTC for $50 at end of 2010. On March 10, he withdrew the cryptocurrency, which went up 400,000 times in price.

Our experts point out that it is useful to be a long-term holder. You just need to buy a promising cryptocurrency and not touch that wallet for a few years. Not a single bank in the world can bring such % of profit. So buy coins from famous projects and forget about this wallet for 3-5 years at least and then maybe you will become a millionaire.

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Investors fear recession. What will happen to Bitcoin in September opinions of our Crypto-Upvotes experts

Our Crypto-Upvotes experts have analyzed situation with Bitcoin on crypto market and told how it can change in next month.

Situation on cryptocurrency market completely depends on dynamics of American stock indices. Which collapsed after the speech of head of the Federal Reserve J. Powell at a conference in Jackson Hole. Over last 30 days, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P500 index is 0.77. Accordingly, if the U.S. stock market crashes. Then all risky assets, including cryptocurrency, will also collapse.

Fed is set to take control of inflation and is ready to aggressively raise rates to the detriment of the economy. Fed interest rate futures are pointing to a 75 basis point hike with a probability above 70%.

Since the Jackson Hole symposium, the technical picture for bitcoin has deteriorated. Sellers have broken down trend line from the low of $17,600 (June 18, 2022). They are restrained by support of $18-19 ths. below it the nearest target is near $12.5 ths.

Bitcoin technical analysis shows that situation has worsened

Investors’ attention is now riveted on US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data for August. According to the forecast, they are expected to show an increase in the number of employed people by 300 ths. compared to growth of 528 ths. in July. A strong jobs report will bolster expectations for the Fed to continue its aggressive 75 basis point rate hike. A sharp rate hike is a rally in the dollar and a decline in Bitcoin.

There was also another negative factor which had a negative impact on all risky assets in Asia. Chinese authorities imposed quarantine in Chengdu because of the COVID-19 outbreak. In the past two weeks in Chengdu about 600 patients with COVID-19 and about 300 asymptomatic carriers of coronavirus were identified. 21 million residents will remain in their homes. Businesses will close. Asian markets were followed by declines in European markets. As a result, futures on the S&P500 went down and pulled the pair BTC/USDt.

Also US dollar draws strength from the weakening of the single currency. Because of the energy crisis in Europe, gas prices are rising in Asia and the U.S.. This in turn leads to unwinding inflation in the world. Gas prices in the U.S. and Asia are rising after those in Europe. And the U.S. Fed is fighting inflation by raising rates. Since the euro accounts for about 57% of the dollar index.

Key event in September will be the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting. Investors fear a recession from a tightening of monetary policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve. A collapse in indices will trigger a fall in cryptocurrencies. Because buyers failed to pass the $25,500 level in mid-August, sellers continue to control market. The more the indexes fall, the more bitcoin will fall.

In next year, cryptocurrency market will be turbulent

So far, the situation for the technology sector and cryptocurrencies, which are strongly correlated with IT stocks, is alarming. Jerome Powell recent statements about the possible next key rate hike. And remaining inflation risks gave a signal to investors that the market will be turbulent in the next year. It is worth to be patient or to exit from high-risk assets in order to keep capital.

In our view, Bitcoin will continue to trade between $18K and $21K in September. We believe BTC will not even make it to $25K during September.

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More than half of BTC transactions are fake,review by Crypto-Upvotes

Forbes conducted a study of Bitcoin transactions. It showed that estimates of platforms that are considered reputable do not reflect real picture of BTC trading volume.

More than half of the trades on exchanges with BTC are fake. According to a study conducted by Forbes. The reasons are so-called “wash trading” and poor monitoring of exchanges.

Wash trading is when a trader repeatedly buys and sells the same asset over a short period of time. Thus trying to mislead other market participants about price or liquidity of asset. The purpose of these operations is to inflate trading volume and create the appearance of growing popularity of the asset. The Forbes article notes that wash trading also benefits exchanges.

The study found that BTC trading volumes calculated by platforms considered reputable do not reflect the real picture. Resources such as CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, Nomics and Messari give completely different estimates of daily Bitcoin trading. Forbes estimated the total daily trading volume of bitcoin on June 14 at $128 billion. This is half as much as the $262 billion volume reported by these platforms.

The most problematic in terms of counterfeit volumes are platforms. Which report big numbers but operate with little or no regulatory oversight. These are the likes of Binance, MEXC Global and Bybit. In total, less-regulated exchanges account for about $89 billion in real trading volume, according to the study. Whereas according to these platforms, the index was at $217 billion.

Opinion

Our experts are not surprised that volumes of BTC and other popular cryptocurrencies can be fake. Because we see large volumes on many non-popular exchanges. But in fact many of them don’t have big amount of users for those volumes which they show. So it’s not surprising that even big platforms like Binance use fake volumes.

But we believe that in the near future many exchanges will no longer be able to do this. Because many countries are restricting and starting to strictly regulate all major CEX exchanges.

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Hotels in Maldives and Thailand began to accept payments in Bitcoin and Ethereum, review by our experts Crypto-Upvotes

Resorts in Soneva hotel chain can now be paid for in Bitcoin or Ethereum, review by our experts Crypto-Upvotes

Resort chain Soneva hotels in Thailand and the Maldives are now accepting payments in Bitcoin and Ethereum. Cryptocurrency payment provider TripleA and payment platform Pomelo Pay are helping to make payments.

The cryptocurrency payment option will be available at Soneva Fushi hotels. As well as Soneva Jani and Soneva in Aqua in Maldives. And in Soneva Kiri in Thailand. Also for Bitcoin and Ethereum it is now possible to buy real estate in the Maldives at Soneva Villa Ownership.

The resort network can directly book rooms. And pay with cryptocurrency through a secure link. In addition, you can use a QR code to pay in cryptocurrency. Soneva adds that while any payments made using Bitcoin or Ethereum are 100 per cent non-refundable, credits can apply in line with its flexible cancellation policy.

“At Soneva, we have always endeavoured to be a pioneer in the hospitality industry, hence accepting cryptocurrencies as a payment method is another example of enabling our international guests to easily make payments from anywhere in the world,” said Bruce Bromley, chief financial officer, and deputy CEO of Soneva.

 

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When Bitcoin will return to an historical maximum opinion of our Crypto-Upvotes experts

Our experts told us what prevents Bitcoin from rising in price. And what the prospects are for it to return to its maximums as it was in fall 2021

In November 2021, 12 years after its appearance, Bitcoin reached a price high of about $69,000. On January 1, 2022, the cryptocurrency was trading at $46,200. In June, its price fell to $17,600, renewing its low from December 2020.

Proponents and critics of cryptocurrencies make various predictions about the direction in which Bitcoin will go next. And what levels it may reach.

Optimistic prognosis

A return to the historical high around $69,000 is hardly possible on the horizon of the next 12 months.

Our experts believe that the fundamental factors for Bitcoin growth. Growth in the cost of money in USA and Europe (an increase in key rates) is necessary. Despite the existing name of BTC “digital gold”, it has not yet become a protective asset. But nothing prevents BTC from becoming such in the future.

With the current volatility of Bitcoin, its price can change by $20,000 in half a year. And if volatility does not increase, the approach to the historical highs will not happen earlier than in a year.

Pessimistic prognosis

Bitcoin follows the rate of U.S. stock exchanges. And this has been observed for a long time. For example, during the growth of indices, the price of bitcoin also grows. And during the fall – it goes down. The downtrend on the U.S. stock market is for a long time. Because the dynamics of inflation in the U.S. promises a further increase in Fed rates. And accordingly, a decrease in the quotations of the technology sector.

Our expert says that according to different estimates, recovery of stock indices in USA. Which have lost more than 10% since the beginning of the year, will take at least three years. That means the same recovery period to record levels can be predicted for Bitcoin. Most likely, the coin will reach above $60,000 only in 2025.

 

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