Our experts have told us what events. And market factors could lead to the beginning of a more noticeable change in the price of Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC) exchange rate has been in the range of $29-31 thousand since the end of June. And in case of short-term price changes, it quickly returns to its previous values.

According to Glassnode, a huge number of Bitcoins changed hands in the range of $30,400 to $31,100. Due to this, the Bitcoin price has formed strong resistance levels that will not be broken without significant fundamental triggers in the next few days.

The current period of consolidation of the cryptocurrency price is primarily due to the market’s expectation regarding the denouement of the Bitcoin-ETF story. And uncertainty about the US Federal Reserve policy and interest rates.

On the one hand, based on the 30-day federal funds rate data, there is a 99.8 percent probability of a rate hike. And what is traditionally a bearish signal for the market. On the other hand, analysts are expecting very soft rhetoric from Jerome Powell regarding further rate hikes. And there is a probability that he will announce the current rate hike as the last one in this cycle. In that case, we can expect a bull rally for Bitcoin as well as other cryptocurrencies.

Also, anytime before August 12, we may get news on the SEC’s decision on Bitcoin-ETF applications by BlackRock and other investment funds. If the applications are approved, Bitcoin could “fly” to $35-40k. But if they are rejected or returned for revision, the price will most likely return to the $27-28k levels.

BTC exchange rate seems to have frozen up

The main reason Bitcoin is stagnating is the lack of bullish momentum. To overcome the $32.5k mark and consolidate above it. Now Bitcoin lacks the inflow of institutional money. And this inflow is hindered by the lack of clear and precise regulation.

Bitcoin’s noticeable growth stopped at the end of June. And since then, the main cryptocurrency has been hovering around $30 thousand for a whole month. This was the case until recently, when several notable events occurred in the crypto market. First, Ripple won a partial victory in court against the SEC. Second, there was the collapse of the dollar in the global currency market. All this, of course, affected the growth of interest in Bitcoin.

Today it continues to trade at the same level, but in the near future it will begin a steady, albeit small growth. Some analysts make predictions based on the 200-day moving average indicator (MACD). And they forecast its reaching the value of $32 th. at the moment of halving. Our experts think that this is quite a balanced position. And it is unlikely that by the halving the indicator will exceed this value by more than 50%. At this point, our experts see a price opportunity between $40k and $50k (most likely $47k).

The launch of the Bitcoin ETF could boost daily demand for bitcoins by $100 million, analysts predicted

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) can grow by 521% from current values to $180 thousand before the planned April 2024 halving. This is reported by Business Insider with reference to the data of the research company Fundstrat.

Now the daily demand for BTC in the amount of about $25 million is equivalent to the daily reward for mining in the amount of about $25 million. But the situation may change in the case of the launch of the Bitcoin-ETF, the analysts of the company believe.

In their opinion, Bitcoin funds can increase the daily demand for BTC by $100 million. Such growth taking into account the halving in April 2024. And which will reduce the daily reward for mining to $12 million. It means that the price of BTC must grow significantly for an equilibrium between buyers and sellers to be reached.

In July, NYDIG analysts said that spot Bitcoin-ETFs will provide demand for cryptocurrency for $30 billion. Experts came to this conclusion after the largest management companies submitted applications for the launch of such funds.

Our experts note that at the same time, Bloomberg senior analyst Eric Balchunas believes. That the approval of applications for the launch of spot exchange-traded BTC funds (ETFs) in the United States will open the bitcoin market access to capital of $ 30 trillion.

This is the approximate amount of assets controlled by US investment firms that have applied to launch Bitcoin-ETF funds

The approval of applications to launch spot exchange-traded Bitcoin-ETF funds  in the U.S. will open the Bitcoin market to $30 trillion in capital, Bloomberg senior analyst Eric Balchunas told Cointelegraph.

This is the approximate amount of assets controlled by US investment firms. And which have filed applications to launch such products with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). These include BlackRock, Fidelity, Invesco, Bitwise, ARK Invest, WisdomTree, 21Shares, VanEck and Valkyrie.

Also according to Balchunas, older investors and financial advisors often place investments with ETFs. Exchange Traded Bitcoin funds will provide access to the cryptocurrency without having to buy it directly.

The analyst believes that the participation of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager. Is enough to increase the chances of such products being approved from 1 percent to 50 percent.

Our experts note that cryptocurrency trading volumes rose in June for the first time in three months. The optimism of crypto traders is specifically due to BlackRock’s filing of an application to open a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). Also the total volume of spot and derivative trading on centralized exchanges increased by 14% to $2.71 trillion.

Our experts have analysed the market situation and outlined how it could change in the short term for Bitcoin

The week from 3 to 9 July was quite peaceful for the Bitcoin market. The price of the cryptocurrency fluctuated between $29,800 and $31,500. Significant volatility was seen on Monday (3 July) and Thursday (6 July). On these days, buyers tried to overcome the resistance level in the range of $31,400 to $31,500, but failed to succeed.

At the beginning of the week the price reached $31,380. However, due to the Independence Day celebrations in the USA on the 4th of July, a corrective movement was seen in all markets. Which lasted until the publication of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. The correction of the BTC/USDt pair was temporary and the price recovered to $31,500 from $30,200.

The minutes of the Fed meeting showed that interest rates remained unchanged. But raised expectations of a possible increase at the next meeting. This was one of the reasons for Bitcoin’s price fluctuations.

The growth of the dollar index and the fall of stock indices forced many investors to close long positions due to concerns about the U.S. economy. A correction started from the $31,500 level. The US private sector employment report released by ADP. And showed a stronger increase in private sector jobs by 497 thousand in June than expected. The data indicated that the US labour market remains strong despite the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy. They raised investor concerns about a possible more aggressive tightening of the Fed’s monetary policy.

Opportunity for growth remains

The US Department of Labour reported that data on non-farm payrolls for June showed the addition of 209 thousand jobs. And while the forecast expected the addition of 225 thousand jobs. This led to the weakening of the US dollar. The unemployment rate was 3.6% compared to the previous reading of 3.7%. And average hourly earnings rose 4.4% year-on-year, up from 4.2% in the previous month, adding to inflationary pressures.

According to CME Group, there is a 93% chance of an interest rate hike of 25 basis points to 5.25-5.5%. A rate hike favours a stronger local currency. Given that the market has already taken this hike into account, we can expect the dollar to decline further after the announcement of the US Federal Reserve’s decision.

Next week, special attention will be paid to inflation indicators in the US after the publication of labour market data. The consumer price index (CPI) for June is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month. And the annualised rate is expected to fall from 4.0% to 3.1%. The core CPI is also expected to decline from 5.3% to 5.0%.
Our experts believe that there is still room for Bitcoin price to rise to the $34k level, which represents the target zone.

Our experts gave their opinion on the prospects for Bitcoin. And named key events for the market as well as predicted further movement of the exchange rate

On July 6, Bitcoin (BTC) momentarily reached $31,500. This was the first time since the beginning of the year. As of 16:30 Moscow time, bitcoin is trading at $31k.

Bitcoin crossed the $31K mark half a month ago, and since then, its price has not declined significantly. There is every reason to believe that it will only grow further. The situation on the crypto market now is extremely favorable.

The US Federal Reserve is talking about the possibility of using payment stackcoins as money in the future. Deutsche Bank, Citadel, Fidelity and several other financial giants have entered the crypto market. And by launching their own decentralised crypto exchange, EDX Markets. The number of applications to launch bitcoin-ETFs for the spot market is growing: BlackRock and Invesco are now interested.

Our experts believe that all cryptocurrencies will grow significantly in popularity in the near to medium term. Bitcoin, on the other hand, will aim for $35,000. This threshold, it may cross already in autumn. If no shocks occur, the next bar for it is $40 thousand.

The data that almost all of the company’s ETF applications have been approved by the US regulators also adds to the positive. That is, the chances that we will see a spot bitcoin ETF on the market in the near future are increasing significantly. The launch of such a fund will attract additional capital to the crypto market from institutional investors, which will lead to an increase in the BTC exchange rate.

Our experts have commented on the current state of Bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole. And also named the key events that will affect the cryptocurrency price this month

In early July, Bitcoin (BTC) has held steady at slightly above $30,000. Over the past month, the first cryptocurrency has gained about 14%. Despite the negative news backdrop of early June. Which is related to the US regulators’ lawsuits against the largest cryptocurrency exchanges Binance and Coinbase. But news of plans by major investment firms BlackRock and Fidelity to enter the crypto market has boosted investors’ optimism.

Bitcoin for June showed a strong bullish trend, which was supported not only by fundamental news. It also saw an increase in purchases of the asset on the spot market, indicating increased investor interest in the cryptocurrency benchmark. At the end of the first half of the year, Bitcoin became one of the growth leaders among crypto-assets. And this dynamic fits well with the concept in the market. That started to take shape after FTX collapsed last November.

Our experts note that among the factors that will play a role, one of the important fundamental events will be the Fed’s interest rate decision at the next meeting. The markets are laying down the likelihood of a rate hike in July. But if the Fed is not in a rush to continue tightening or indicates that the pace and speed of rate hikes will not be rapid. Cryptocurrency will react positively to such rhetoric, which will support crypto-assets.

The entire market awaits strong growth

The Bitcoin price has spent the last week in a quiet sideways consolidation process. The flagship cryptocurrency had previously risen markedly; it was time for analysis and data collection. The market has gathered maximum support factors, from SEC and Binance agreements to massive interest from BlackRock and Fidelity funds in Bitcoin-ETFs. New crypto exchanges are opening, and platforms are pining for strong growth – and at this point, it has all coincided.

Technically, there is nothing to prevent BTC from moving towards $40-42k. Seasonal cycles show that the rising trend could stretch until July 22-25. The support level is located at $29,800, resistance is at $31,150.

In July, bitcoin rate, according to seasonal cycles and technical analysis data, may strengthen in the range of $33-34 thousand. For this purpose, the market needs to consolidate above the resistance level.

The number of cryptocurrency wallets with assets under 1 BTC is increasing. And there is demand from individuals on the side of the flagship cryptocurrency. In addition, investors are closely involved in the issue of bitcoin-ETF licensing. If the SEC approves such licences, the funds will trigger demand for Bitcoin. And that does not exist on the market in the right volume. A supply vacuum will cause a violent rise in the price. This is a long-term influence, but any positive news in that direction will support the BTC exchange rate.

The crypto market’s capitalisation has been rising for the past two weeks and stands at $1.210 trillion. It has recovered markedly from the downturn, which is a signal that investors are willing to buy.

Our experts have analysed the cryptocurrency market and explained how it could change in the short term for BTC

The week from 26 June to 2 July was quiet. BTC/USDt traded between $29,500 and $31,282. The increased volatility was observed at the end of the week on Friday. There were reasons for it. However, the market quickly calmed down, so the consolidation in the limited range causes some optimism. And regarding the continuation of the uptrend through July 22.

In the first half of the week, sellers tried to break the support of $29,900 on the background of the statements of the US Federal Reserve Chairman J. Powell.

He made at the European Central Bank forum about possible increase of interest rates twice this year, but failed. The price bounced back to the $31,282 level. The publication of first quarter GDP data supported the dollar but had no effect on the crypto market.

Bitcoin rose on news that asset manager Fidelity Investments had applied to create a bitcoin spot fund (ETF). It joins other management companies, including BlackRock, WisdomTree, Invesco and Bitwise, which had earlier applied for a bitcoin ETF this month. In addition, CME Group announced the launch of new futures for the ETH/BTC ratio. And that also had a positive effect on the entire market.

On Friday, the market saw increased volatility. Bitcoin plummeted 5.26% to $29,500 in 15 minutes. For the crypto market, such a dip is commonplace. As the price may well show a drop of 15-20% on negative news.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has told the Nasdaq and Cboe exchanges that recent bids from BlackRock, Fidelity and others for spot bitcoin-ETF funds were not “clear and comprehensive”. This was reported by The Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter. The SEC returned the applications because they lacked sufficient information. Including a so-called joint supervision agreement or details of the mechanism. The fall in the price of BTC has been limited because companies can update the wording and resubmit applications.

Important events and short forecast

The US markets will close early on July 3 and will not be open on July 4 due to the bank holidays, Independence Day. Minutes from the last US FOMC meeting will be published on Wednesday (5 July). And non-farm payroll data will be released on Friday (July 7). These are the key events for the week. Also keep an eye on the news from the SEC and companies that have previously filed for BTC spot ETFs.

Sellers managed to remove protective stops on long positions below $29,800 to $29,900. After falling to $29,500, the price returned to $30,748 and stabilised around $30,400. The ETH/USDt pair jumped to $1,948 after falling to $1,825.

Our experts note that on the whole the technical picture is favorable for the continuation of the upward movement to $34k. The growth phase should last until July 22. Then there will be a downward correction or sideways movement until September. The S&P500 index is recovering well. And there is a reserve for growth in the range of 6%. Buyers still have time to move up before the US Fed meeting.

Our experts analyze the growing interest in the Bitcoin-ETF. And why the approval of applications for exchange-traded funds from BlackRock and Fidelity will not be the main reason for the growth of the cryptocurrency price

Optimism among cryptotraders has increased dramatically. This happened after the world’s largest investment management company BlackRock applied for the launch of the first spot exchange-traded fund (Bitcoin-ETF) in the United States. The mood of investors was reflected in the price of the first cryptocurrency – Bitcoin exchange rate exceeded the $30,000 mark.

The application from BlackRock is different because almost all attempts of the company to launch ETFs for other assets have been successful. That said, other players’ bids to create ETFs. And based on Bitcoin trading as an underlying asset, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has rejected more than 30 times.

On June 29, Fidelity Investments also filed for a bitcoin exchange-traded fund. Fidelity manages more than $11 trillion in assets for 42 million clients.

A spot Bitcoin-ETF is a product that tracks the actual price of Bitcoin. The idea is for investors to access BTC through a regulated and familiar product. And without actually owning bitcoin at the same time.

Exchange-traded funds based on futures are different from spot funds. They offer investors access to futures contracts and not to any asset. When you buy a spot fund, you’re actually buying Bitcoin on the market. If big players show interest in such a product, it may have an impact on the price of the asset.

The conventional wisdom is that a regulated asset in the world’s largest investment market will attract more investors and capital. Proponents hope that the financial strength of BlackRock and Fidelity will succeed where others have failed.

Dozens of asset managers applied for the launch of such a fund.

The first of them were the Winklevoss twins, who filed their first application back in 2014. And when Bitcoin was trading below $1,000, however, the SEC did not accept such applications. And explaining that the cryptocurrency was traded on unregulated exchanges. The agency says it cannot provide investors with assurances that the market is free from fraud and manipulation.

Following the news of BlackRock’s involvement, companies such as Invesco, WisdomTree, Bitwise, Ark Investment Management and Valkyrie. They resubmitted applications to register their own Bitcoin-ETFs, making some changes to the paperwork.

The only crypto-ETFs approved by the U.S. are based on Bitcoin futures contracts. And which are listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Several futures ETFs have also been able to be launched by smaller players. But that hasn’t led to an influx of institutional interest in cryptocurrency. And buying shares of such funds had no effect on real trading in the crypto market – futures act only as a derivative instrument.

Further perspectives

This situation itself is even more interesting because BlackRock chose to apply for the fund during a period of strained regulatory turmoil. This may suggest that the company is looking positively at the state of the crypto industry in the near medium to long term.

Our experts point out that we are likely to see another round of volatility on the news of the application process. Although the procedure is governed by specific deadlines, but as the periods of the past years show. Then the SEC can make various adjustments and change the deadlines at its discretion. And in doing so, adding, for example, the collection and analysis of public comments. It makes no sense to be tied to specific dates: denial, postponement, and approval can happen at any time.

Miners had similar trends at the peak of the market in late 2021. And when cryptocurrency prices reached historic highs

Bitcoin miners are sending record high amounts of cryptocurrency to exchanges, according to analytics platform Glassnode. In the last week alone, they sent a record $128 million in cryptocurrency to exchanges. This is more than 4 times the amount of their daily income, the representatives noted.

Our experts note that during the bull period in the crypto market in 2021. And there were also several similar bursts of large transfers of miners’ income to exchanges, as they were fixing profits. Also amid the late 2022 crypto market crash, miners were sending large amounts of their Bitcoin earnings to exchanges.

Typically, when miners send their Bitcoin mining profits to exchanges. They do so in preparation to cash out in cryptocurrency to cover costs and lock in profits. Last week, Bitcoin reached its highest price of the year. And in doing so, reaching the $31185 mark on June 24. However, the sales of miners have not yet reflected on the rate of BTC.

Despite Bitcoin’s price growth of more than 80% this year, miners are still facing difficulties. Since July 2022, the profitability of bitcoin mining has fallen by more than 30%. And since the peak of the bull market in 2021, more than 80%. Rising hash rates and record increases in the complexity of mining, as well as rising electricity prices, suggest that selling mined Bitcoins may be a necessity to cover costs.

Buying shares of four cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds will be available to users through official HSBC trading apps

The largest bank in Hong Kong, HSBC, has allowed customers to buy and sell shares of exchange-traded funds (ETF) for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). Which are listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. And becoming the first bank in Hong Kong to officially approve this service. And this was reported by journalist Colin Wu, citing internal bank documents. According to him, such a move will expand opportunities for local users to work with cryptocurrencies.

Several cryptocurrency ETFs are currently registered in Hong Kong. Such as CSOP Bitcoin Futures ETF, CSOP Ethereum Futures ETF and Samsung Bitcoin Futures Active ETF. They are all futures-based funds. And this approach differs from that of the fund of the American investment company BlackRock, which announced the launch of a spot ETF on bitcoin.

Bitcoin Trust and Spot Bitcoin ETFs are products that track the real price of Bitcoin. Their point is to give investors access to BTC through a regulated and familiar product. While not actually owning Bitcoin.

Futures-based exchange-traded funds differ from spot funds in that they offer investors access to futures contracts rather than to an asset.

When you buy units of a spot fund, unlike futures products, there is an actual purchase of Bitcoin in the market. If big players show interest in such a product, it may have an impact on the price of the asset.

At the same time, HSBC launched the Virtual Asset Investor Education Centre. Before trading, users will need to familiarize themselves with basic concepts. And information about the risks involved. The trading service will then be available to them on the HSBC HK Easy Invest app, HSB CHK Mobile Banking and through online banking.

Our experts noted that in 2022, the Hong Kong authorities have set a course to legalize retail transactions in digital currencies. As well as encouraging local licensed crypto-businesses. Also the launch of new assets, linked to the price of cryptocurrencies, on official trading platforms. In March of this year, it was reported that Hong Kong units of mainland Chinese banks. And are considering options to provide services to cryptocurrency companies amid tight restrictions from U.S. regulators.