The Bitcoin market is in a long period of quiet. Our experts have analyzed this situation and made conclusions.

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing one of the least volatile periods in its history. And this raises doubts that noticeable jumps in the price of Bitcoin at all will take place in the future. This is what Glassnode analysts wrote in their weekly market report.

Bitcoin’s realized volatility in various month-to-year intervals has declined significantly this year, reaching multi-year lows. Volatility in the year-to-date range is at levels not seen since December 2016. According to the company’s metrics, this is the fourth such period.

The first time there was such a prolonged lull was during the bear market period in late 2015 and early 2016. The bear market of early 2018 was also accompanied by a lack of significant price swings. And in November of that year, it experienced a 50% collapse. However, this was followed by an upswing in April 2019, when Bitcoin’s price rose from $4k to $14k in three months. A prolonged consolidation also took place after March 2020, when the world adapted to the COVID-19 epidemic. Then there was a brief period of stability at the end of 2022.

Bitcoin volatility chart by Glassnode

The price range separating the seven-day high and low price is only 3.6%. In the history of the market, less than 5% of trading days have ever had a narrower weekly trading range. The 30-day price range is even narrower. Periods of consolidation and narrowing of a price range of this magnitude are extremely rare for Bitcoin.

Weekly lows and highs for the bitcoin price. Source: Glassnode

At the same time, Glassnode notes that the number of long-term Bitcoin holders has reached an all-time high, accounting for about 15.6 million BTC (75% of coins in circulation).

What’s next for the Bitcoin price, our experts’ opinions

In general, the technical picture on the daily charts “looks positive for the “bulls”. According to our experts’ estimates, the beginning of fall will be the starting point for a new growth phase. However, now the cyclic analysis points to the advantage of “bears”. And that in conditions of low volatility constrains the market.

Last week, the BTC/USDt pair declined on the background of strong statistics on US GDP. And which gives the Fed grounds for further tightening of monetary policy in the fight against inflation. This raises concerns for investors trading risky assets.

For now, uncertainty and regulatory risks remain amid tough statements from the head of the SEC. Low trading volumes increase the probability of BTC’s decline to the levels of $27,700 – $27,900. But in case of passing the $31,800 mark, the “bulls” will be able to regain the leading position.

Our experts told about opportunities to invest in crypto-assets with a link to the price of gold

It’s been more than 35 years since The Economist magazine published a cover story titled “Get ready for a world currency” with the name Phoenix and the year 2018 minted on the coin. This magazine partly influenced the credibility of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, but many people don’t know about the story until now. The first notable hype around cryptocurrencies happened just in 2017-2018. And the top of the cryptocurrency market capitalization of that period was formed on January 8, 2018. The magazine was published on January 9, 1988, it said that in 30 years people will buy goods online and all price tags will be indicated in the new world currency.

Fiat currencies aren’t going anywhere. And it will be easier for states to manage their economies. It is possible that this is what the market maker took advantage of. And after all, thanks to this magazine, many people believed that in 2018 there was a new world currency, and bought cryptocurrencies at the peak of the price.

The main Bitcoin network was launched on January 3, 2009. And today it’s 2023, and settlements are still predominantly in dollars, some continue to believe that Bitcoin will eventually become the world currency that it is. But there is another option. Our experts allow varianto that under the new world currency hides ordinary gold. But in digitized or tokenized form.

In this variant it can be divided into dust and instantly make payment. And the proof of its originality will be recorded in the blockchain. We, on the other hand, believe in the value of the Tether USD (USDT) stablecoin today. And which is issued in this way, on the blockchain and backed by real financial instruments.

News is emerging that the BRICS countries are going to launch their own currency.

And some sources believe that it will be pegged to the value of gold or backed by gold reserves. In such a case BRICS comes to exchange of goods and resources. And it is practically a barter system of settlements between the countries. Gold will act as a unit of measurement in mutual settlements. Thus, everything will return to the original idea, when the dollar was backed by the gold reserve.

The blockchain organization with DPoS (Delegated Proof-of-Stake) consensus is most suitable for building such a payment system. This consensus algorithm was first developed by Dan Larimer in 2013 for his BitShares project. The DPoS protocol is also referred to as a form of “digital democracy”. The difference between DPoS and the Proof-of-Stake (PoS) algorithm. And on which Ethereum (ETH) or Cardano (ADA) operate, is the separation of network participants into block producers and voters. If we project this idea into the form of a supranational digital currency. And it will turn out that citizens of countries choose the government. And the government sets up a node to validate transactions. Sooner or later, elections will also take place on the blockchain, and such a consensus will become more transparent.

For such a payment network, for example, the architecture of the EOS cryptocurrency would fit well. But it is clear that the government will not use the blockchains of existing cryptocurrencies.

The new currency will probably be backed by commodities or raw materials. Not the growth of any one country’s economy. It will be a separate network where each BRICS member will hold a node (node) of the network. When the consensus will be that even if one participant (node) of the network confirms a transaction (without considering the sender). And all others are against it, and such a transaction goes through, it will be called a multipolar world. In such a network, money will not be frozen by the decision of just one party, as in the case of the dollar or the euro. This would be the creation of a new model, where the old one would simply become obsolete and cease to be popular.

Investment option

Since the 2008 crisis, central banks have been actively buying gold. This has only happened once in history, before the dollar was decoupled from gold.

Today, you can buy tokenized gold, such as PAX Gold (PAXG). Each token is backed by one troy ounce of London gold in 400 ounce bars stored in Brink’s vaults. If you own PAXG, you own the underlying physical gold. And held in the custody of the Paxos Trust Company. Tether also issues tokenized Tether Gold (XAUt), but it is less trusted.

Our experts believe that gold is a more promising instrument for value saving in the coming years.

Gold is trading at $1930 an ounce today. Short-term we expect growth up to $2390.

Cryptocurrency exchange HashKey Exchange has been authorized to provide services to retail investors in Hong Kong

Cryptocurrency exchange HashKey Exchange has become the first company in Hong Kong. Which has been licensed under the region’s new licensing regime. And which allows cryptocurrencies to offer retail services.

HashKey has been granted Type 1 (securities transactions) and Type 7 (automated trading services) licenses. And can now serve retail investors in the region, the company said in a statement.

On April 27, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) issued a circular to banks to clarify the rules for opening accounts for cryptocurrency companies. The document clarifies how banks should conduct customer due diligence (CDD).

On June 1, 2023, Hong Kong introduced a new licensing regime for companies providing cryptocurrency trading services.

Our experts note that at the end of June, the Hong Kong unit of British bank HSBC allowed clients to trade shares of cryptocurrency ETFs. It was noted that the purchase of shares of four cryptocurrency exchange traded funds will be available to users through official trading applications.

Hong Kong’s first official crypto exchange HashKey Exchange will not provide services to users from 34 countries. Also including Russia, Iran, South Africa and Myanmar

The exchange does not restrict access to clients from the USA, Japan, China and a number of other countries. But on condition that they live in the territory of states where the circulation of digital assets is not restricted. They will have to confirm their location address and phone number during the verification procedure.

From the user agreement also became known that the processing of payments for the HashKey Exchange is engaged in the Asian division of the bank JPMorgan Chase. And one more partner bank will become ZA Bank in the future.

Weekly feature: our experts analyzed the market situation and told how it may change in the short term for Bitcoin

The week from July 31 to August 6 was relatively quiet. The BTC/USDt pair traded in the range of $28,585 – $30,047. Increased volatility in the market was observed on August 1 and 2. On August 1, the price of Bitcoin fell to $28,585. The market was pressurized by fears of regulatory action by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding the crypto projects Hex, PulseChain and PulseX. The hack of the Curve crypto exchange was also negatively impacted. And as a result of which hackers stole about $50 million. Despite the fall in quotes in the first half of the day, the daily candle closed with growth at $29,705.

On August 2, Bitcoin was recovering to $30,047. There are two reasons that may have provided support for buyers:

The first one is the release of MicroStrategy’s Q2 2023 report. The company made a profit for Q2 and purchased 12,333 BTC. As of July 31, the company owns 152,800 BTC. The total BTC purchase price is $4.53 billion at an average price of $29,672 per 1 BTC.

Second – Fitch Ratings downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA+ due to a growing budget deficit and a buildup of government debt. The downgrade had a limited impact on the markets. And since with such debt it is an expected event. U.S. government debt service has nearly reached $1 trillion a year. At this rate, debt interest payments will soon become a major spending item in the U.S. budget. Hardly anyone will repay the debt. The share of the dollar is declining in international settlements and in central bank reserves. No matter what anyone says, U.S. bonds are becoming toxic.

Analysis of other factors

Friday’s U.S. labor market data points to a continued slowdown in job growth. 187,000 jobs were created in July. And that is below forecasts. And the figures for June were revised downward to 185k. That’s the smallest job gain since December 2020.

Although the unemployment rate has fallen. And wages have risen, the low rate of job growth suggests the labor market is gradually cooling under the influence of the Fed’s tighter monetary policy and a slowing economy. Companies are cutting back on hiring because of rising costs and an uncertain outlook.

Overall, the data points to weakening employee attitudes and cooling labor demand. This could have a dampening effect on inflation and cause the Fed to slow the pace of rate hikes. Nevertheless, the labor market remains relatively resilient despite the slowdown.

Despite a relatively quiet week in terms of economic events, the key indicator will be the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), which will be released on August 10. It will give an indication of the inflation rate and could affect the US Dollar’s performance and the Fed’s monetary policy expectations.

The dollar ended last week on a weak note after a five-day rally. And the question is whether it was a correction of the uptrend or the beginning of its reversal. Overall, the US inflation report will be a key benchmark in the coming week to understand the outlook for the dollar and monetary policy. Bitcoin did not take advantage of the dollar’s weakness, and that’s a bad thing, as its rebound and a decline in U.S. stock indices could bring down the market more.

Buyers’ activity in the crypto market is low due to fears of a new market crash

The U.S. Attorney’s Office is preparing charges against Binance. However, it fears that it may provoke a massive outflow of user funds, as in the case of the bankrupt FTX.

DOJ officials are rumored to be concerned that filing criminal fraud charges against Binance could cause panic. And mass withdrawals by customers, causing them to lose money and destabilize the entire cryptocurrency market.

Therefore, prosecutors are considering alternative options to punish Binance, such as fines, deferred prosecution, or a settlement agreement. This would avoid a harsh reaction from investors and negative consequences for the industry. A decision on what charges will ultimately be brought against Binance has not yet been made and is under review by the US Department of Justice.

Prospects

Our experts note that despite the local recovery, buyers failed to gain a strong foothold above $30 th. The price Bitcoin stabilized around $28,950, where it traded until the end of the week amid the absence of positive triggers. The key support level is the $28,250 mark. If the trend line from the low of $16,333 does not hold. The risks of falling to $25,250 will increase sharply. According to seasonal cycles, the bearish phase should last until September. BitRiver estimates that Bitcoin needs to break through the resistance at $30,500 for the situation to turn bullish.

MicroStrategy has bought another 467 BTC since June 30. And at the end of July, it owned 152,800 Bitcoins

Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy may raise up to $750 million by selling its shares to three companies. And the proceeds may be used, among other things, to buy Bitcoins. And this is what the company said in a statement filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on August 1.

“As with previous programs, we may use the proceeds for general corporate purposes. And which include the purchase of bitcoins and the repurchase or repayment of our outstanding debt,” the company clarified.

MicroStrategy bought another $361.4 million worth of Bitcoins in the second quarter of 2023. And what was the largest coin purchase by the company since the cryptocurrency’s price peak in late 2021. Since June 30, the company has purchased an additional 467 coins. This brings the total value of Bitcoins held by the company to about $4.53 billion. As of July 31, the company owned 152,800 BTC.

Our experts note that the company purchased between April 29 and June 27 at an average price of about $28,136 per 1 BTC. Additionally, another 12,333 bitcoins for a total of $347 million.
This purchase brings the total number of Bitcoins held by the company to 152,333 BTC, which is approximately $4.6 billion at the exchange rate at the time of publication. The company paid a total of about $4.52 billion for these bitcoins, with an average purchase price of about $29,668 per 1 BTC, including commissions and other expenses.

Cyber scammers have increased their use of hidden mining due to increased law enforcement activity and heavy regulation

Over the past 12 months, the number of hidden mining (cryptojacking) cases worldwide has increased by 399%. This is according to data from the SonicWall report.

Cybercriminals are increasingly resorting to remote hacking of servers. And cryptocurrency mining devices. Recent data suggests that cybercriminals have become more likely to use this method due to increased law enforcement activity and strict regulation.

Hidden mining, or cryptojacking, is a cybercrime involving the unauthorized use of someone else’s devices (computers, smartphones, tablets, or servers) to mine cryptocurrency. It is often conducted through vulnerabilities in mobile apps, web browsers and their permissions and remains unnoticed by the victim.

In the UK, cryptojacking incidents have increased by 479% since 2022. In the US, there were 214 million such attacks in 2023 alone. And that’s a 340% increase from the year before.

Our experts note that in June, Google Cloud launched a program to compensate customers for up to $1 million in losses from hidden mining. If an attacker bypasses the cloud service’s built-in defenses. Users with special subscriptions will be able to get compensation for their losses. A subscription to Security Command Center Premium includes specialized hidden mining detection capabilities built into the Google Cloud infrastructure. The service scans virtual machine memory for malware. It can also detect compromised identities. And which allow attackers to access cloud accounts and quickly inject malware.

Our experts have told us what events. And market factors could lead to the beginning of a more noticeable change in the price of Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC) exchange rate has been in the range of $29-31 thousand since the end of June. And in case of short-term price changes, it quickly returns to its previous values.

According to Glassnode, a huge number of Bitcoins changed hands in the range of $30,400 to $31,100. Due to this, the Bitcoin price has formed strong resistance levels that will not be broken without significant fundamental triggers in the next few days.

The current period of consolidation of the cryptocurrency price is primarily due to the market’s expectation regarding the denouement of the Bitcoin-ETF story. And uncertainty about the US Federal Reserve policy and interest rates.

On the one hand, based on the 30-day federal funds rate data, there is a 99.8 percent probability of a rate hike. And what is traditionally a bearish signal for the market. On the other hand, analysts are expecting very soft rhetoric from Jerome Powell regarding further rate hikes. And there is a probability that he will announce the current rate hike as the last one in this cycle. In that case, we can expect a bull rally for Bitcoin as well as other cryptocurrencies.

Also, anytime before August 12, we may get news on the SEC’s decision on Bitcoin-ETF applications by BlackRock and other investment funds. If the applications are approved, Bitcoin could “fly” to $35-40k. But if they are rejected or returned for revision, the price will most likely return to the $27-28k levels.

BTC exchange rate seems to have frozen up

The main reason Bitcoin is stagnating is the lack of bullish momentum. To overcome the $32.5k mark and consolidate above it. Now Bitcoin lacks the inflow of institutional money. And this inflow is hindered by the lack of clear and precise regulation.

Bitcoin’s noticeable growth stopped at the end of June. And since then, the main cryptocurrency has been hovering around $30 thousand for a whole month. This was the case until recently, when several notable events occurred in the crypto market. First, Ripple won a partial victory in court against the SEC. Second, there was the collapse of the dollar in the global currency market. All this, of course, affected the growth of interest in Bitcoin.

Today it continues to trade at the same level, but in the near future it will begin a steady, albeit small growth. Some analysts make predictions based on the 200-day moving average indicator (MACD). And they forecast its reaching the value of $32 th. at the moment of halving. Our experts think that this is quite a balanced position. And it is unlikely that by the halving the indicator will exceed this value by more than 50%. At this point, our experts see a price opportunity between $40k and $50k (most likely $47k).

The launch of the Bitcoin ETF could boost daily demand for bitcoins by $100 million, analysts predicted

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) can grow by 521% from current values to $180 thousand before the planned April 2024 halving. This is reported by Business Insider with reference to the data of the research company Fundstrat.

Now the daily demand for BTC in the amount of about $25 million is equivalent to the daily reward for mining in the amount of about $25 million. But the situation may change in the case of the launch of the Bitcoin-ETF, the analysts of the company believe.

In their opinion, Bitcoin funds can increase the daily demand for BTC by $100 million. Such growth taking into account the halving in April 2024. And which will reduce the daily reward for mining to $12 million. It means that the price of BTC must grow significantly for an equilibrium between buyers and sellers to be reached.

In July, NYDIG analysts said that spot Bitcoin-ETFs will provide demand for cryptocurrency for $30 billion. Experts came to this conclusion after the largest management companies submitted applications for the launch of such funds.

Our experts note that at the same time, Bloomberg senior analyst Eric Balchunas believes. That the approval of applications for the launch of spot exchange-traded BTC funds (ETFs) in the United States will open the bitcoin market access to capital of $ 30 trillion.

This is the approximate amount of assets controlled by US investment firms that have applied to launch Bitcoin-ETF funds

The approval of applications to launch spot exchange-traded Bitcoin-ETF funds  in the U.S. will open the Bitcoin market to $30 trillion in capital, Bloomberg senior analyst Eric Balchunas told Cointelegraph.

This is the approximate amount of assets controlled by US investment firms. And which have filed applications to launch such products with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). These include BlackRock, Fidelity, Invesco, Bitwise, ARK Invest, WisdomTree, 21Shares, VanEck and Valkyrie.

Also according to Balchunas, older investors and financial advisors often place investments with ETFs. Exchange Traded Bitcoin funds will provide access to the cryptocurrency without having to buy it directly.

The analyst believes that the participation of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager. Is enough to increase the chances of such products being approved from 1 percent to 50 percent.

Our experts note that cryptocurrency trading volumes rose in June for the first time in three months. The optimism of crypto traders is specifically due to BlackRock’s filing of an application to open a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). Also the total volume of spot and derivative trading on centralized exchanges increased by 14% to $2.71 trillion.

Our experts have analysed the market situation and outlined how it could change in the short term for Bitcoin

The week from 3 to 9 July was quite peaceful for the Bitcoin market. The price of the cryptocurrency fluctuated between $29,800 and $31,500. Significant volatility was seen on Monday (3 July) and Thursday (6 July). On these days, buyers tried to overcome the resistance level in the range of $31,400 to $31,500, but failed to succeed.

At the beginning of the week the price reached $31,380. However, due to the Independence Day celebrations in the USA on the 4th of July, a corrective movement was seen in all markets. Which lasted until the publication of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. The correction of the BTC/USDt pair was temporary and the price recovered to $31,500 from $30,200.

The minutes of the Fed meeting showed that interest rates remained unchanged. But raised expectations of a possible increase at the next meeting. This was one of the reasons for Bitcoin’s price fluctuations.

The growth of the dollar index and the fall of stock indices forced many investors to close long positions due to concerns about the U.S. economy. A correction started from the $31,500 level. The US private sector employment report released by ADP. And showed a stronger increase in private sector jobs by 497 thousand in June than expected. The data indicated that the US labour market remains strong despite the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy. They raised investor concerns about a possible more aggressive tightening of the Fed’s monetary policy.

Opportunity for growth remains

The US Department of Labour reported that data on non-farm payrolls for June showed the addition of 209 thousand jobs. And while the forecast expected the addition of 225 thousand jobs. This led to the weakening of the US dollar. The unemployment rate was 3.6% compared to the previous reading of 3.7%. And average hourly earnings rose 4.4% year-on-year, up from 4.2% in the previous month, adding to inflationary pressures.

According to CME Group, there is a 93% chance of an interest rate hike of 25 basis points to 5.25-5.5%. A rate hike favours a stronger local currency. Given that the market has already taken this hike into account, we can expect the dollar to decline further after the announcement of the US Federal Reserve’s decision.

Next week, special attention will be paid to inflation indicators in the US after the publication of labour market data. The consumer price index (CPI) for June is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month. And the annualised rate is expected to fall from 4.0% to 3.1%. The core CPI is also expected to decline from 5.3% to 5.0%.
Our experts believe that there is still room for Bitcoin price to rise to the $34k level, which represents the target zone.