Our Crypto-Upvotes experts have analyzed situation on cryptocurrency market. And told how Bitcoin price can change in the next few days

Last week, from November 14 to 20, trading on the crypto market was relatively quiet. Increased volatility was observed on the first day of the week. Bitcoin/USDt jumped from $15.8 th. to $17.1 th. (+8.69%). Growth in quotations was caused by the head of Binance, Changpeng Zhao. He said he will launch a fund to rebuild the industry and help promising companies. He did so to reduce the negative impact from collapse of crypto exchange FTX.

After updating the weekly high price stabilized in the range of $16 thousand – $17 thousand Investors are in no hurry to buy Bitcoin because they took a wait-and-see attitude. Because of fears of the next wave of sales on the background of new bankruptcies of companies related to the collapsed exchange FTX.

For ten days, market is in the phase of rest after a recent collapse. Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P500 Index has turned negative at 0.62. Crypto market has stopped reacting to the dynamics of dollar and stock indices. Investors are busy transferring tokens from centralized exchanges to cold wallets. They are doing this to protect their cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin price is at $16,000 waiting for a new batch of news about crypto industry. As buyers have failed to quickly get the price back above $18,500. A level of $12k is still flashing green for sellers below, signaling a lack of resistance. Because of a collapse in FTX, events could begin to unfold in a worst case scenario for Bitcoin and crypto investors. Buyers need to consolidate above $18.5k. Without consolidation, bearish sentiment will not be offset.

There is a threat of new bankruptcies, and continued collapse of crypto market

So far, the ratio of long and short positions on futures market does not have any bias. Therefore, we do not expect a sharp change in the situation in the next few days.

On-chain parameters also speak in favor of absence of preconditions for fall. There is also growing interest in cold wallets, amid outflow of capital from CEX exchanges because of scandal with FTX.

Most likely scenario is a continuation of current levels. Accordingly, expected range of BTC price is about $16-17 thousand.

Among stability risks, there is a threat of new bankruptcies followed by an avalanche of liquidations. There are no guarantees that it will not happen this week. But the probability is not high either. And statements of major players about creation of crypto-business support funds to prevent exactly such chain reactions in the market. Should add optimism and confidence in protection of crypto industry from collapse.

Of important – it is worth to highlight protocol of November meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which will be published on November 23. Bitcoin is detached from risky assets, so it may ignore investors’ reaction to the publication of these protocols.

Daily futures trading volume on DeFi platforms reached $5 billion. This is the biggest amount since Terra collapsed in May of this year. Crypto-Upvotes expert review.

DeFi platforms increased revenues amid the outflow of funds from centralized exchanges that occurred due to the collapse of FTX. On-chain data showed an increase in activity on decentralized futures trading platforms and an increase in revenue for DeFi protocols, Cointelegraph reported.

However, not all decentralized applications (DApps) and protocols show such a trend. Because some of them have financial ties to FTX and Alameda. But data on DeFi projects’ revenues show that at least three protocols have exceeded $1 million in the last seven days, including Ethereum and OpenSea Marketplace.

Decentralized futures trading platforms have increased their trading volumes to record levels. Their daily turnover reached $5 billion, the highest since the Terra token crash in May of this year.

Despite the increase in trading volume, the total value of locked-in assets (TVL) at DeFi only increased at seven networks. Gains Network, a futures trading platform on the Polygon network, showed the biggest increase. Its TVL increased 17.3% over the week. And inter-network protocol Ren saw its TVL drop by 50%. This is because Ren worked closely with Alameda. And received quarterly funding and stored its funds directly on FTX.

Blockchain’s profit growth comes on top of an unchanged number of daily active users. Compared to previous weeks, the daily profits of leading blockchains have increased by more than 300%. This suggests that transactions among existing users are occurring more frequently.

Despite growth in profits, only Ethereum made profits among PoS-based blockchains. Other leading networks such as Polygon, BNB Smart Chain and Optimism did not profit. Holders of these tokens suffered inflationary losses.

Our experts told us what consequences may arise due to reduced liquidity on CEX exchanges. And how it will affect cryptocurrency prices

FTX exchange collapse caused a significant outflow of funds from centralized platforms. According to analytical platform CryptoQuant, after November 6, when it became known about problems FTX. CEX exchanges users withdrew 200 thousand BTC ($3.35 billion). As well as about 2 million Ethereum ($2.4 billion) and nearly $3 billion in Stablecoin.

For example, from Binance, users withdrew 81.7 thousand bitcoins ($1.35 billion) in just six days, or more than 15% of the total amount of bitcoins on this exchange. However, the head of Binance, Changpeng Zhao, called the surge in withdrawals small and explained that this is normal during a fall in cryptocurrency market.

Where do cryptocurrency owners transfer their funds?

Ordinary investors experience panic when there are some problems on centralized exchanges and market in general. And has a great desire to hide his funds to feel more relaxed. According to him, users primarily withdraw assets to decentralized wallets.

Means in these purses can not only store, but also exchange on the decentralized exchanges (DEX). After FTX started having problems, the number of such transactions increased dramatically.

In the last 24 hours alone, trading volume on DEX exchanges has increased by 38.66%, according to data from the CoinMarketCar platform.

Currently, the leading DEX platforms are Uniswap (v3), Curve (Ethereum), and PancakeSwap (v2). According to our analysts, daily trading volume on the first of them is more than $908 million, on the second and third – $170 million and $150 million, respectively.

In addition to decentralized storage, cryptocurrency owners began to take an active interest in hardware wallets. In the past week, revenue from the sales of Trezor devices grew by 300%. And competing company Ledger also recorded a significant surge in demand for its devices.

Reduced liquidity in CEX exchanges and the whole cryptocurrency market in general, what can it lead to?

Crypto market is now driven by investors’ fear of losing their investments. Reduced liquidity of crypto market and general pessimism mean a further decline in value of cryptocurrencies.

This process has a negative impact on the crypto market, it “slows” it down. This means it is not worth waiting for the recovery yet. Growth of crypto market can be forgotten for a while, now the main thing is not to fall even deeper.

However, our experts believe that cryptocurrencies are unlikely to hold out. The crypto market has not yet realized the scale of the disaster. Lack of liquidity leads to a decrease in trading volume. And hence, the profitability of trading platforms deteriorates greatly.

Large scale capital outflows can lead to a domino effect. One company is followed by collapse of other companies that are connected by common transactions. Some cryptoprojects have already reported financial difficulties caused by the collapse of FTX.

For example, crypto exchange AAX suspended withdrawals and said it lacked liquidity to continue operations. And cryptocurrency lender BlockFi is preparing a bankruptcy filing.

The next two weeks will show how serious the situation in cryptocurrency market is. According to our analyst, new bankruptcy filings will mean a massive collapse of the whole crypto industry.

Participants of trading on CEX exchanges may find it difficult to sell some coins quickly

This could happen because the outflow of assets from such exchanges reduces the volume of liquidity on them. Most likely, popular coins like Bitcoin, Ethereum and Stablecoin will not be affected. But some altcoins traded in tandem with Bitcoin or ether may suffer, according to our expert. Their liquidity will be low. This means traders will prefer not to deal with such liquidity. And prices for these altcoins will go down, largely due to the lack of active trading on exchanges.

“It’s a market, it’s all interconnected. The churn is mostly in Bitcoin and Stabelcoin, and all other pairs are losing liquidity,” explains our expert.

Traders can now pay attention to native coins DEX-exchanges. In addition, our expert noted that DEX crypto wallet tokens may also show growth in price.

In what cases is borrowed liquidity useful in DeFi. And also what dangers it brings. And how to borrow for a user who owns Bitcoins. Crypto-Upvotes expert review

Rapid falls and rises in quotations are characteristic of cryptocurrency sector. Part of the high volatility is due to the large share of borrowed capital involved in transactions. Nevertheless, convenient borrowed liquidity is also one of strong points and features of DeFi finance.

Virtually every blockchain ecosystem has its own decentralized finance loan protocol. And the largest blockchains even have several. Such protocols work roughly the same way: by freezing their coins in a smart contract, users can release liquidity. When they receive credit in desired cryptocurrency or stabelcoins, interest accrues on deposit and borrowing. And for using a platform, a bonus is given as tokens to vote on future protocol development. Stablecoin borrowing usually comes at an impressively low interest rate of 1% to 2% per year.

Annual interest rates for coin deposits to the protocol or borrowing are identical for most large and time-tested platforms. Therefore, users can choose a product based solely on the overall usability of a particular blockchain and its software solutions. Thus, if a user, for example, frequently makes coin exchanges on Solana. And on the same blockchain plays some kind of P2E game, then the loan protocol as well, if needed. It will be more convenient for him to choose on the same blockchain.

DeFi borrowing is very easy and fast

This is an extremely convenient and fast process, which speeds up the already rapid movement of liquidity within the cryptocurrency sector.

When the market falls, traders using DeFi loans are forced to close their positions quickly. Because there is a danger of liquidation of collateral, thereby further accelerating the fall. When the market rises, it is also easy for traders to continue to create new buying volume. As the value of collateral assets rises, it makes it possible to increase the size of loans.

Similarly, borrowing protocols have already been used many times in market manipulations to collapse the rate of coins.

Is borrowing a unique advantage of crypto-assets or a dangerous trap?

The practice of borrowing against property or other valuables has been known since ancient times and is still widely used today. However, cryptocurrencies stand out among all other types of assets because of the incredible ease of obtaining borrowed liquidity. And complete freedom of its movement.

Owners of classic stocks in brokerage accounts might object. Because most brokerage platforms also provide credit leverage. Which is based on the capital available to this user. This is true, but there are two key differences that drastically distinguish web2 and web3.

For web2, the annual interest rate on borrowed brokerage funds will be significantly higher. And you will only be able to use the funds conveniently within the original platform. In the case of DeFi, borrowed funds are instantly deposited into the user’s wallet. And immediately can be used and transferred to third-party wallets and services without any restrictions.

When is borrowed liquidity useful?

The most valuable use of DeFi borrowing will be for those wishing to preserve the growth potential of their assets. Since its launch, crypto sector has been in a correction most of the time. Conversely, only briefly at its price peaks. Such moments are easy to miss if you sell an asset when you need dollar liquidity. And hope to buy it again later. And a rapid rise can happen in a few weeks or even days.

Borrowed liquidity can also be particularly useful for emerging market users with small deposits. Who strive to increase their crypto-assets portfolio step by step, if possible. For such category of users, the use of DeFi-protocols allows not to part with crypto-assets during an unfavorable market phase.

Of course, such tools carry a lot of dangers for inexperienced users. It is critical to keep statistics of all borrowings made. As well as to monitor your open positions. Which is based on the ratio of borrowed liquidity to the provided collateral. The safest ratio is no more than 1/3.

We recommend using only the least volatile of the coins, such as ETH or BTC, as collateral. Volatility of BTC has been steadily declining this year, and amid geopolitical instability has fallen below many fiat currencies and even the S&P500 index.

I have Bitcoin, how do I get liquidity and what are these risks?

The crypto sector’s flagship blockchain does not support smart contracts by default. Therefore, the first action for BTC holders on its main network would be to transfer Bitcoin to another network. One that supports DeFi-interactions. It is possible to move to another network in a decentralized way, using one of the bridges. Or by using a centralized exchange. In this case, the user will need to bring your BTCs to exchange, sell them, withdraw amount in main asset of destination network (for example, for Matic it will be Matic). And then exchange the asset back to the “wrapped” BTC on the new blockchain using any of DEX. At the same time, leaving some asset to the network itself to pay subsequent commissions.

Despite the many pros and little studied new ways of using borrowed liquidity. Its use remains extremely dangerous and involves risks every step of the way. Smart contract hacks, credit protocol oracle failures. Which can lead to accidental liquidations. Or the excitement and gambling addiction from feeling the possibility of getting “free funds” . This is just a short list of dangers awaiting users.

Deal volume in cryptocurrency market has fallen to values of December 2020. Our experts have analyzed what is happening in this industry and told us when volumes will start to grow again

In October, trading volumes on cryptocurrency exchanges updated the minimum since December 2020. The amount of transactions on trading floors last month amounted to $543 billion compared to $733 billion in September.

Main reasons for volume fall

The main factors that influenced the decline in trading volumes include falling cryptocurrency prices. And, as a consequence, a decrease in interest in popular and hype assets, such as NFT and DeFi. As well as external factors, primarily risks of recession in western economies on back of tighter monetary policy. And geopolitical tensions that have increased this year.

At the same time, according to our Crypto-Upvotes expert, it is impossible to talk about a decline in interest in cryptocurrencies. Despite the decreased trading volumes of retail players and low interest in social networks and media space. Blockchain technology itself and crypto-projects are actively financed by funds and institutional investors.

Market has been in a sideways trend for 137 days (4.5 months), our finance expert recalled. When the price trades in a limited range for a long time, investors get nervous, he said.

“Statistically, markets are in a sideways trend more than 75% of the time. You have to live with that. Buyers’ activity remains low on the background of risk aversion.” – explained our specialist.

Is “Crypto Winter” in hot phase? What will happen to cryptocurrency trading volumes?

Low trading volumes indicate that the cryptocurrency market is in the “crypto winter” stage.

However, the current situation in the crypto market cannot be called “crypto winter”. Unlike a similar period in 2018-2019, both capitalization and number of participants are much higher now. And development of blockchain products has not stopped, despite falling prices for cryptocurrencies.

Volume of investment in industry from outside also indicates normality of current market situation. And the volatility on individual top assets is quite enough to make money even in current periods of time.

Trading volumes will grow as volatility rises and prices of major crypto assets move out of the ranges they have been in since this summer. Once market participants understand the direction of further movement. They will immediately connect to it, which will allow trading volumes to grow according to our Crypto-Upvotes experts.