Crypto-Upvotes experts explained reason of the last fall of BTC price. And told how it can change in coming days

Last week from November 21 to 27, BTC updated its yearly low. High volatility on crypto market was observed at the beginning of this week. Bitcoin sales intensified on news of the possible bankruptcy of Genesis. Which had $175 million hanging in the collapsed FXT exchange. The BTC/USDt pair was down to $15,400.

BTC price did not go lower. The sales were stopped by a representative of Genesis. He said that company continues to negotiate with creditors and does not plan to declare bankruptcy in the near future. The Wall Street Journal reported that billionaire Justin Sun is considering options for the acquisition of certain FTX assets. This news backdrop formed a nice session bullish trend on the intraday charts. Also, the cryptocurrency market received support from the weakening U.S. dollar in forex. As well as the growth of stock indices in the U.S. before the release of the minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on November 1-2. Bitcoin rose 8.6% to $16,800 in 53 hours.

Buyer activity was halted by news that Genesis had hired a restructuring consultant to explore all options, including bankruptcy.

On Thursday low activity on all world exchanges can be explained by day off in the USA. Markets in the States did not work because of the national Thanksgiving holiday. On Friday, trading was at the level of $16.5 thousand.

As long as there is no negative news, Bitcoin is trying to climb out of the hole Sam Bankman-Fried sent it into. Fear of a possible collapse is keeping investors from active action. Buyers need to pass $17.15k and $18.5k for the FTX exchange collapse to recede into the background.

No factors for BTC growth

After shocks associated with the collapse of FTX, the crypto market is frozen, waiting for new factors for movement. Most likely, there will be no strong changes. Bitcoin now trades at $16.2k, the same dynamics is expected in the next (range $16-16.5k). In the absence of negative news, of course, because there is no positive news to expect.

Level of $18.5k is the key resistance level. Its overcoming will open the way for buyers to $22.5k. Also it will allow many miners to accumulate BTC and not to sell at low prices. Sellers are still set to bring the market down to the $10-12k zone.

The most important event this week is the report on the US labor market in November. As the cryptocurrency market has decoupled from the S&P500. Then it can ignore the price swings of the dollar and the S&P500 after the report is published. If Bitcoin reacts to U.S. statistics. Then again we can look at correlation and stronger correlation with other risky assets.

There will likely be more reports of problems in the crypto industry this week. Even if not as significant and large as with FTX. For example, it is now known that the ecosystem of decentralized finance and stable dUSD coin Ardana. Which is based on the blockchain Cardano, has announced the suspension of project development. Because there is now uncertainty about the funding and timing of this project.

The next negative report is that cryptocurrency lender Matrixport is looking for $100 million in funding. Lead investors have already committed $50 million to the company, but the deal has not yet been finalized. As Matrixport needs to find those who will close the other half of volume.

Conclusion

There are no factors for growth of digital financial assets. Main thing is that there are no new ” Black Swans ” – poorly predictable negative events. In this case, Bitcoin will remain at the level of about $16.5k. However, if there are new reports about difficulties on cryptocurrencies, it can fall to $14-15k.

Our Crypto-Upvotes experts told us what dynamics to expect from Bitcoin and digital currency market in short term

On November 14, Bitcoin exchange rate is about $16.5 thousand. During the last week, it fell by more than 20%. Our experts have analyzed this situation on crypto market and told what kind of dynamics to expect in next week.

Any negative news will bring down crypto market

The second week of November reversed all the achievements of buyers since mid-September. The collapse of the crypto market occurred due to the fiasco of negotiations between the head of Binance Changpeng Zhao and the head of FTX Sam Bankman-Fried.

Changpeng Zhao caused a liquidity crisis at the FTX exchange on Monday with his announcement that he would sell FTT tokens. As it turned out, most of the assets of FTX-affiliated company Alameda ($14.6 billion) were FTT tokens.

The Binance CEO wiped out a huge competitor in a matter of days. There is an opinion that he intentionally made public statements about selling FTT. The collapse in crypto market was partly localized by U.S. statistics on Thursday. Slowing inflation in the U.S. collapsed the dollar and boosted demand for risky assets. Traders sold off the U.S. currency on expectations of a slowdown in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hike cycle. The BTC/USDt pair jumped 16% to $18,200.

Although Dollar Index continued to fall on Friday, cryptocurrency halted its rise. Sam Benkman-Fried undermined confidence in the crypto industry. Investors fear the collapse of other cryptocurrencies that have had liquidity problems because of FTX. We just don’t know about it yet. Alameda may be “dumping” its portfolio on the market to take advantage of a price rebound.

The inflation report temporarily diverted investors’ attention away from FTX problems. Although situation in market remains tense. After a collapse and rebound, Bitcoin/USDt is trading at $16,400 in the range of $15,600-$18,200. Shock has passed, but buyer activity is very low. Without new negative news, the continuation of the correction above $18.5k remains. In such conditions, it will be a feat for the buyers. According to our experts, the risks of Bitcoin decline to $12,000 are over 70%. The market is low-liquid, so any bad news on the collapse of some other exchange with its token will collapse crypto market within a day.

Prospects for Bitcoin to rise to $20,000 in coming week

Unfortunately, our experts do not see prerequisites for Bitcoin recovery even up to $20K. All that positive impulse, which the market got after the data about growth of consumption prices in the USA. But crisis around FTX, which is still in its acute phase and just started to develop, didn’t let BTC grow and it fell below $17K again.

This week market will wait for developments around FTX. And the details of the debts of Alameda and FTX. As well as possible solutions to the problem of repayment of debts to clients. Regulators will definitely take action, because many companies related to the American market, Galaxy Digital and Circle, have been affected.

It’s not yet completely clear how catastrophic the collapse of Alameda would be for those companies that Sam Bankman-Fried was actively rescuing in recent months. Rumors have surfaced about Alameda’s liabilities of up to $50 billion. This could be a real counterpart to a collapse of Lehman Brothers for crypto market.

Our forecast for BTC this week is that it might fall to $14-15K and it will hardly go lower because, judging by Order Book, there are huge buy orders. So even if Bitcoin falls below that level, it will be bought back immediately.

Deal volume in cryptocurrency market has fallen to values of December 2020. Our experts have analyzed what is happening in this industry and told us when volumes will start to grow again

In October, trading volumes on cryptocurrency exchanges updated the minimum since December 2020. The amount of transactions on trading floors last month amounted to $543 billion compared to $733 billion in September.

Main reasons for volume fall

The main factors that influenced the decline in trading volumes include falling cryptocurrency prices. And, as a consequence, a decrease in interest in popular and hype assets, such as NFT and DeFi. As well as external factors, primarily risks of recession in western economies on back of tighter monetary policy. And geopolitical tensions that have increased this year.

At the same time, according to our Crypto-Upvotes expert, it is impossible to talk about a decline in interest in cryptocurrencies. Despite the decreased trading volumes of retail players and low interest in social networks and media space. Blockchain technology itself and crypto-projects are actively financed by funds and institutional investors.

Market has been in a sideways trend for 137 days (4.5 months), our finance expert recalled. When the price trades in a limited range for a long time, investors get nervous, he said.

“Statistically, markets are in a sideways trend more than 75% of the time. You have to live with that. Buyers’ activity remains low on the background of risk aversion.” – explained our specialist.

Is “Crypto Winter” in hot phase? What will happen to cryptocurrency trading volumes?

Low trading volumes indicate that the cryptocurrency market is in the “crypto winter” stage.

However, the current situation in the crypto market cannot be called “crypto winter”. Unlike a similar period in 2018-2019, both capitalization and number of participants are much higher now. And development of blockchain products has not stopped, despite falling prices for cryptocurrencies.

Volume of investment in industry from outside also indicates normality of current market situation. And the volatility on individual top assets is quite enough to make money even in current periods of time.

Trading volumes will grow as volatility rises and prices of major crypto assets move out of the ranges they have been in since this summer. Once market participants understand the direction of further movement. They will immediately connect to it, which will allow trading volumes to grow according to our Crypto-Upvotes experts.

What events in the next month may lead to changes in the price of Bitcoin. And to what levels it can rise or fall

First Cryptocurrency has continued to trade in a relatively narrow range since mid-June 2022. Since then, the rate of BTC fell to a low of $17.6 ths. And at its peak, it reached $25.2 ths. Most of the time, cryptocurrency is near the mark of $20 ths.

Over the past month, the Bitcoin price range has become even narrower. Maximum value of the rate for the last 30 days reached $20.4 ths (October 6). The rate of Bitcoin fell to a minimum on the day of publication of the U.S. inflation data for September. At that time the price of BTC fell to $18.3 ths, but quickly recovered.

As of Oct. 24, the leading cryptocurrency is trading around $19,200, according to CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin has a market capitalization of $371 billion, with a daily trading volume of $28.8 billion. The asset’s share of the cryptocurrency market is 38.3%.

U.S. congressional elections and macroeconomics could affect BTC price

The U.S. Congressional elections are due in November, our Crypto-Upvotes experts note. Cryptocurrency and traditional markets are generally strong in the run-up to this election. However, our experts say it’s not quite right to expect the same rate behavior as it did after the last election. The previous congressional elections were held in early November 2020. The cryptocurrency market was in a bull market. And since then, Bitcoin has gone from $15k to $61k by April 2021.

But today both the stock market and the cryptocurrency market are still bearish. And the volatility in the cryptocurrency market is quite low. Therefore, no serious rally is expected from BTC. In case it fails to rise above $23k, the downward pressure will continue.

The bearish pressure is amplified by global macroeconomic weakness combined with the popularity of short ETFs on Bitcoin. This raises concerns about whether this time there will be a repeat of November 2018, when Bitcoin collapsed from $6k to $3k also after a long period of consolidation and low volatility.

Investors, primarily institutional investors, as in the stock market, always assess the situation in terms of the reaction of the Federal Reserve (Fed). As well as on macroeconomic data on the United States. Therefore, the price of BTC may react to further Fed Funds rate hikes.

Also, among important events for Bitcoin and the entire crypto market in November, our expert called the TOKEN2049 conference. It will be held from November 9 to 10 in London. Our expert noted that it will be attended by such well-known figures in the cryptocurrency community as Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz, Tezos co-founder Kathleen Breitman and Blockchain.com CEO Peter Smith.

There is hope that the rate will soon stop rising by 75 bps. (0,75%)

At least a “slight hope” that the rate will soon stop rising by 75 bps (0.75%) at the end of each meeting. . As well as reduction at least to 0.25% or suspension of increases. All this will lead to the development of a medium-term trend for growth i Bitcoin rate.

In this case, psychologically important level of $20K may be overcome. This will allow the bulls to rush to the levels of $24K and $28.3K in the coming month. More rapid growth looks too optimistic variant so far. But it may lead to $32 thousand and $36.8 ths, says our expert.

It’s also worth paying attention to the following levels in the price of BTC when it grows: $20.5 ths, then $22.8 ths. Reaching the same Bitcoin mark at $25 K will already mean the change of current bearish trend.

Signals for continuing a bear market trend

Signal to continue bear market could be the level of $16 K. Then we should pay attention to the level of $14 K, and, finally, $10 K.

In the coming month, Bitcoin may show a decline. First, price of the first cryptocurrency may fall to around $18 K, and later to the area of $15 K – $16 K. Our expert noted that it will be possible if Fed rate will continue to rise.

Our experts listed factors affecting current cryptocurrency prices. And discussed possible bearish trend change to bullish and possible Bitcoin growth.

Bitcoin price has fallen 70% from its all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021. In 2022, the value of the first cryptocurrency reached a maximum of $47,500 at end of March and has since fallen to current prices around $20,000. Crypto-Upvotes experts listed reasons for price declines in cryptocurrency market and told when a bull market may start.

Bears are winning now.

Now few people are willing to take risks. And the reason for this is the rising cost of funding after a Federal Reserve rate hike. This also says the financial director and head of trading operations ICB Fund Chen Limin. In his opinion, the situation could be exacerbated by a possible decline in the U.S. economy and turbulence in raw materials markets.

Our experts also believe that most likely current bear market will drag on. Growth of cryptocurrency capitalization may start not earlier than 2024, and before that the market will need to go through “self-cleaning from the most unstable crypto projects. Some institutional investors and lenders have already seen problems with these projects because of falling quotes.

According to our experts, the price of bitcoin now tends towards $10,000. But lower values of the price are also possible. Price of $20,000 proved to be difficult to break through for a complete departure below this price now needed a pause. But everything goes to a soon victory of sellers over buyers.

According to our expert, the reason, which initially contributed to the growth of the market – purchases from institutional investors. Now it has become a main driver of price falls. When Federal Reserve decided to raise rates, funds and lenders left the risky cryptocurrency market to free up funds to support more important positions.

The next rise will require a return of capital back into cryptocurrency markets. And that will only happen after the Fed decides to stimulate market activity again. And that is a long way off, because the Fed will want to make sure that inflation is completely beaten and only after that will it start to ease monetary policy again.

Has Bictoin reached bottom? Will bear market end soon and start bull market?

Now there is a major outflow of bitcoin from exchanges. And this indicates that investors see it as a certain area of interest. And the very withdrawal of assets means moving them to long-term storage. Our experts believe that this is one of the signals that this cycle of decline is coming to an end.

Investors do not trust CEX exchanges because of blockages and restrictions on their exchange accounts. CEX exchanges support different sanctions, they have security problems and many other reasons forcing investors to withdraw assets from exchanges to a more secure place, such as cold wallets. This is already a very good signal for the crypto market, our experts believe.

Crypto-Upvotes experts did an analysis and saw that the balances on exchanges have been systematically decreasing since 2020 and are now at 2018 levels. But the number of non-zero balances is increasing all the time. This fact signals that more and more people are “accepting and trusting” Bitcoin, total number of users and wallets is increasing.

Many Whales have been active since mid-June, when the bitcoin price went down to a $20,000 zone , and smaller investors have been active since the $30,000 mark.

Our experts think it is quite likely that we have already reached bottom or are very close to it. And a loosening of Fed policy could positively motivate markets.
Exactly then the recovery period will begin, the Fed rate will be 3.23%-3.5% by the end of the year. And improvement of situation on crypto market and start of a new growth phase is predicted already in 4Q of this year.

Our Crypto Upvotes experts remind us of meme tokens and explain why they can show growth in medium term.

During Crypto Winter, there are many negative forecasts in market at the moment, high “fear” index of investors and tense situation on cryptomarket, we suggest to focus on tokens with high social resource and low fundamental component in mid-term planning. Assets that fit this category perfectly are “meme” tokens.

Disclaimers: Our company “Crypto-Upvotes” does not give investment advice, this material is published for introductory purposes only. Cryptocurrency is a volatile asset that can lead to financial losses.

What cryptocurrency to buy now during Crypto Winter, our experts offer an asset allocation scheme if you have a few extra dollars that you can risk:

• Dogecoin (DOGE) — 30%;
• Shiba Inu (SHIB) — 25%;
• Floki Inu (FLOKI) — 15%;
• Dogelon Mars (ELON) — 15%;
• Baby Doge Coin (BABYDOGE) — 10%;
• Saitama V2 (SAITAMA) — 5%.

Success of most “meme” projects is that they parasitize on Elon Musk brand. Tweets of this billionaire have repeatedly provoked the growth of traders’ interest in certain cryptocurrencies. And most often these were “meme” tokens. For example, Musk has repeatedly explicitly stated his support for Dogecoin. And his Shiba Inu puppy is named Floki, which developers of these projects successfully speculate on.

Among the negative aspects of such an investment portfolio are only its unpredictability. Because growth of token “memes” occurs suddenly and without reason. Such crypto assets are hardly suitable for long-term investments. But they can be interesting in periods of crypto winter.

We should also not forget about the DOGE-funded launch of a satellite to the moon, the exact date of which can be announced at any time, which is likely to cause a strong price increase.

Another project in our portfolio is Saitama. It is not directly related to Musk brand, but the number of mentions of this token in news has increased lately, which could have a positive effect.

Warnings about risks when investing in meme projects.

It is almost impossible to make accurate predictions about price of “meme” tokens. Their cost depends directly on the hype created by a certain group of investors. Therefore, it is difficult to predict their growth or decline with a high degree of probability. This forecast is based mainly on personal experiences of our experts and empirical data from past investment periods.

“Meme” tokens grow rapidly because retail investors buy them en masse, which raises their price through trivial technical market mechanisms. But as soon as these investors sell their tokens and move on to other assets, the price drops noticeably. In fact, “memes” are often accompanied by “Pump and Dump” schemes and less often the increase in activity yields long-term results. This should be taken into account when organizing a portfolio. You need to constantly monitor the actuality of its price, so as not to miss a good moment to exit.

Crypto market is experiencing hard times – the most famous cryptocurrencies have fallen in price two or three times since the beginning of the year and continue to fall rapidly. Large blockchain projects are closing or stopping their development. Experts are predicting a harsh crypto winter. Why is this happening? How long will it last? And is bitcoin worth selling for $20,000 a coin now? Or, on the contrary, is now the best time to buy? Let’s find out together with experts of Crypto-Upvotes team.

Bitcoin in middle March could be bought at $41,000 per coin. Now, three months later, it is trading at around $20,000, having fallen in price by almost half. Fall affected other cryptocurrencies, for example, Ethereum lost almost two-thirds of its value at the same time.

Panic in markets has even affected Stablecoins. Some of these coins have lost that bind. The most famous scandal was the collapse of UST steibcoins, which fell in price a hundred times within a month. As of June 21, their exchange rate was only $0.008. The U.S. authorities even announced their intention to open an investigation into what happened to UST.

Against this background, on June 12, a major platform Celsius temporarily banned users to transfer and withdraw funds (this led to the collapse of the company’s own token by 50%). The next day, the popular cryptocurrency exchange Binance suspended bitcoin withdrawals. And another day later, Coinbase announced that it was laying off 18% of its employees. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong warned of a possible “crypto winter”.

Has crypto winter come?

Experts have different opinions on the state of affairs in the crypto market. “Crypto winter is harsh and the market may face cataclysm in the form of another collapse and slow price recovery, which may take several years,” Crypto-Upvotes experts believe, “After the pandemic, the G7 central banks printed a lot of money to support the economies. And now they don’t know how to contain high inflation due to the energy crisis. The U.S. Fed is fighting inflation by raising rates. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s tightening of monetary policy strengthens the dollar, raises government bond yields and pressures the stock market. Cryptocurrency is a risky asset class, so a sell-off in stocks causes a sell-off in cryptocurrencies.”

Our team’s experts also attribute the collapse to the general economic situation. The inflow of new money into cryptocurrencies is declining amid record inflation in the U.S. and an increase in the key rate by the U.S. Federal Reserve. This, in turn, will affect the availability of credit. “Large investors prefer to invest in cryptocurrencies with money that is easy to get, in an environment where it can be profitably borrowed at any time,” say our experts.

One of experts on Crypto-Upvotes team believes that the current drop is only part of the general cyclicality of cryptocurrency market. “The exchange doesn’t produce money, it redistributes it,” he insists, “there are people who bought bitcoin at $40,000, even at $60,000, now they need to be persuaded to sell it for $20,000. It’s not easy to do, so there’s pressure on new investors to get non-professionals out, and professionals would buy the cryptocurrency at low prices.”

What will happen next? Sell or Buy Now?

Against the backdrop of a sharp drop, many users are getting rid of their crypto savings, even despite the large losses. However, our experts say that this should be done only as a last resort.

Our experts have different views on mid-term prospects for the crypto market. Those who entered bitcoin above $30,000 should first of all prepare themselves emotionally and thank the fate for the valuable experience, from the point of view of the historical context the assets which fell in price during recession sooner or later will grow to new ATH.

Any successful cryptocurrency has a large scope for applications: NFT projects, meta worlds, game projects. As long as there are people who see the sense in it (and there are 300 million people using cryptocurrencies in the world now), it will be impossible to talk about domino effect and the whole market falling to zero.

As for what to do with investments in cryptocurrency – there is no universal advice – say experts of Crypto-Upvotes team. It all depends on the investor’s capital and willingness to take risks. A year ago, some famous billionaires invested a small part of their savings, which they manage, in cryptocurrencies. They might as well buy now, since the losses won’t be sensitive to them, and the gains in the future will be nice. Many of us will not be very upset to lose $100 in a slot machine and everyone will be glad to get a profit of $10,000 or more in a couple of years.

Our experts expect BTC to fall to $8000

People are used to making predictions based on experience. We remember that in the spring of 2021 some experts started talking about the beginning of crypto winter. At that time, the market held steady, and after that it showed record growth. Which means that now there are several options for future.

Some assure that we are in the state of crypto winter right now. While others believe that the events happening before our eyes are just the beginning of a big rally, in which there will be no winners.

Let’s look at both positions and draw some conclusions. The first ones refer to the mind of cryptocurrency holders and the financial cushion of the Whales. Argument is as follows: a huge number of people bought Bitcoin and Ether at the very tops. Undoubtedly, some of the unlucky investors will start to get rid of their savings, which has been happening in recent days. But most do not want to lose their money, so will hold positions despite the further decline of the rate. Also worth paying attention to the actions of Whales (wallets with more than 10 000 BTC). These guys have not changed their tactics lately, slowly accumulating large amounts. It turns out that for some, cheap cryptocurrency is the way to ruin, while the big fish are looking to make money by buying up coins at low cost.

As a zone of support for collapse of Bitcoin was the mark of $20,000, but the price has fallen below $19,000. And further there are no short positions, which means the price will fall further.

In this regard, our experts have estimated that BTC might fall to $8,000 very soon. But we should not forget that there are many people who keep their money in Ether, and in the next few days the rate can go down to $800 and then to $400. Bitcoin storm grows stronger, but this is a general trend for the market, but Ethereum has also a number of internal problems. To begin with, the developers’ uncertain position on timing a move to PoS. Merger has been postponed so often that many have already stopped believing Vitalik Buterin words. Many investors no longer believe that Ether and Bitcoin can escape cold embrace of crypto winter.