The BlackRock proposal now includes a mechanism for redeeming units for fiat money. This is a redemption model that the SEC considers safer for investors compared to redemption in BTC

BlackRock has updated its application for a spot bitcoin-ETF to increase the chances of its approval by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The management company’s proposal now calls for a fiat money redemption mechanism for the fund’s units. This is the model favored by the U.S. regulator.

The world’s largest asset management company has become the latest of several firms. Which updated statements amid rumors that the SEC may approve a number of bitcoin-ETF applications as early as January. ARK Investments also previously made similar changes to its application for the ARK 21SHARES Bitcoin ETF.

BlackRock applied to launch the iShares Bitcoin Trust exchange-traded fund in June this year. And at the same time offering a redemption model in kind (in bitcoins). However, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, analyzed the proposal. And raised concerns about investor safety and market manipulation.

ETFs typically have one of two types of redemption and issuance mechanisms: in-kind or cash. In-kind redemption structure. And which many companies believe is more attractive to investors, allows companies to redeem units for bitcoins. The SEC considers it safer and more affordable to redeem for fiat money.

In this case, if an investor wants to redeem the fund’s units, BlackRock would have to withdraw the bitcoins from the vault. And sell them and pay the investor the required amount in fiat money.

“The trust issues and redeems blocks of 40,000 units on an ongoing basis. These transactions will be done in exchange for cash. Subject to regulatory approval, these transactions will also be able to be conducted in exchange for bitcoins,” BlackRock said in its new filing.

The company also provided a ticker symbol for the fund to be created in the documents. The spot bitcoin-ETF is expected to trade on NASDAQ under the name IBIT.

Valkyrie, Fidelity Investments, ARK Investments, Grayscale, WisdomTree and Invesco are also awaiting approval from the SEC.

Bitcoin-ETF issuers have already advanced to key details in their negotiations with the SEC. Our experts note that the deadline for the regulator to decide whether to approve, reject or postpone a decision on bitcoin-ETF applications is set for mid-January.

Our weekly feature on Bitcoin. Our experts analyzed the market situation and told how it may change this week

The week that ended on December 10 was a good week for bitcoin. And for investors who prefer long positions, it was extremely favorable. At the beginning of the week bitcoin crossed the $40 thousand mark and, apparently, managed to accumulate strength and consolidate above this level. By the weekend bitcoin came close to the next psychological boundary of $45 thousand, but the growth rate slowed down. Bitcoin will have to force this mark during the week of December 11-17. According to many prerequisites, the first cryptocurrency will manage to do it and get a foothold above $45 thousand.

The main factors in the growth of the crypto market remain expectations that the SEC will soon approve the launch of bitcoin-ETF. And flows of institutional capital will flow into cryptocurrency.

The state of the U.S. economy also gives a strong impetus to the crypto market. Namely, the expectation of a slowdown in inflation in the United States and the beginning of the period of reduction of the key rate by the Federal Reserve Service (FRS). At first glance, the positive dynamics in the Fed’s fight against inflation entails risks of recession in the U.S. economy. A recession along with inflation above the 2% target threatens investors with asset depreciation. This encourages them to hedge risks and move some capital into protective assets. For example, gold, which has shown growth in recent weeks. Or cryptocurrencies, which, although highly volatile, can give a high ROI (return on investment).

Main events of this week

This week, the main attention of cryptocurrency market participants, as well as the stock market, will be focused on the key events of the U.S. economy.

On December 12, the U.S. Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics will release data on inflation in November 2023. The US CPI is expected to rise slightly from October’s level. But the Core CPI (Core CPI), which reveals the trend of hidden inflation. On the contrary, it will slow down year-on-year. The PPI and retail sales data will also be important for the market.

But the main event of the week will undoubtedly be the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve on December 12-13 on the key rate. And the following press conference of the Fed’s head Jerome Powell. Market participants do not expect the key rate to change. But high hopes are pinned on Powell’s speech: they are waiting for him to signal the US Fed’s readiness to start reducing the key rate in 2024. And that should stimulate economic growth and investors’ interest in risky assets, which include cryptocurrencies.

The crypto market may be feverish

In the first half of the week, we can expect high bitcoin volatility on the back of the Fed meeting and the publication of inflation data. The crypto market can be feverish – from sharp rises on expectations of the Fed’s decision to a sudden correction right after Powell’s speech. Support levels for bitcoin will be $41-42 thousand, and resistance – $48 thousand.

By the end of the week bitcoin will show how strong the bulls are in the crypto market. And whether they will be able to gather their strength to confidently consolidate above $45 thousand. Given that the deadline for the publication of the SEC decision on applications for the launch of bitcoin – ETF is in early January 2024. It can be expected that in the next month, the upward trend in the cryptocurrency market will continue. Our experts note that while crypto market participants have not received a final answer to the ETF question, they will continue to hope for a quick launch of the exchange traded fund. And their hopes will serve as a basis for the growth of bitcoin price.

Bitcoin rate for the first time since the spring of 2022 reached $42 thousand. Our experts told ” about the factors affecting its growth, and the future prospects of cryptomarket

On Monday, December 4, bitcoin (BTC) crossed the $42,000 mark, rising more than 11% overnight and renewing the annual high set earlier. The last time bitcoin traded above $42,000 was in April 2022. And before the collapse of the Terra ecosystem triggered a massive collapse of the cryptomarket.

Bitcoin began its rapid growth in mid-October amid news about the possible approval by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the first spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) for bitcoin. In less than a month, the rate of the first cryptocurrency rose by almost $10 thousand.

Several major investment firms, including BlackRock and Fidelity Investments, are now awaiting SEC approval of their own bitcoin ETFs. The launch of such ETFs is considered by the crypto community to be the catalyst for a new bull cycle in the market. BlackRock alone has assets under management totaling about $9 trillion. According to an estimate by the analytical company Chainalysis, North America is the largest cryptocurrency market, with an annual turnover of about $1.2 trillion.

A few fundamental reasons for the rise of BTC

There are several fundamental reasons for the current growth of bitcoin: firstly, market participants are pricing in a ceiling on monetary tightening. And that can be clearly seen in the significant rise in US stock markets and bond values. If [global] central banks, such as the Fed, have completed tightening. Then in the future, fresh liquidity could come to many markets, including cryptocurrencies.

Second, expectations of spot ETF launches are still having a bullish impact. As investors reasonably expect the number and volume of institutional investors in cryptocurrency to increase after the approval and launch of bitcoin ETFs.

Third, from a cyclical perspective, the fourth quarter is a historically successful quarter for the cryptocurrency market. And the cyclicality continues this year, allowing investors to expect a positive year-end close.

Bitcoin has features of both gold and stocks

The bitcoin price is being pushed up by the same factors that contribute to the growth of gold. This is a decline in inflation rates and fears of recession in the U.S. economy. As well as the cheapening dollar and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

These factors are driving stock markets higher, as well as shifting some capital into safe haven assets like gold. Bitcoin has features of both gold and stocks, so investors are eager to include it in their investment portfolios for diversification. And to hedge the risks associated with depreciation and a possible recession.

In addition, the crypto market is expecting a soon approval of the bitcoin-ETF by the SEC and a new bull cycle, which traditionally accompanies the halving of the bitcoin network.

In the next month we can expect bitcoin to force the level of $45 thousand. Bitcoin growth will push altcoins as well. Ethereum (ETH), for example, has a chance to rise to $2350 by the end of December.

Whether cryptocurrencies will be able to gain a foothold above these levels depends largely on what decision on ETFs will be made by the SEC in January. When the deadline to publish the final decision on several applications approaches. If the decision is positive, it will serve as a strong trigger for further growth. If it is negative, we can expect a pullback to the values of late November.

Our experts note that we should not forget about the approaching halving. Its effect will support bitcoin and is unlikely to let it go below $38 thousand even if regulators refuse to approve bitcoin-ETF in the United States.

Our experts analyzed the state of the market and talked about how bitcoin will behave in December 2023

In November, bitcoin rose by 11% against the dollar. The main driver of the upward dynamics was positive expectations of the soon approval of the spot bitcoin-ETF by the US financial regulator. Additional support for the crypto market was provided by the weakening of the dollar. And the growth of stock indices in the U.S. in anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve rate at the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on December 13.

In the market remains positive mood of market participants. The technical picture on the daily timeframe is also favorable for the continuation of the upward movement of the pair BTC/USD in the medium term before halving.

Halving is a planned reduction in the number of newly issued bitcoins (BTC). Which are created and distributed to miners who perform verification and validation of transactions on the network. This is embedded in the bitcoin program code to ensure that the total number of coins on the network never exceeds 21 million units. The next bitcoin halving is expected in April 2024.

Important events that the markets will focus on include U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth data for the last quarter and personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price information for the third quarter. The market is actively watching inflation as it is linked to expectations of further decisions by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

We expect bullish dynamics

The digital asset market has historically tended to rise in December. Given fundamental factors. Such as the prospect of spot  bitcoin ETF approvals in early 2024. And the approaching halving, the growing number of institutional investors and the sustainability of market capitalization. Our experts expect bullish momentum in December. As they did throughout the fourth quarter before that.

Our expectations for November were to reach the level of $38 thousand, and bitcoin succeeded to grow to this level at the end of the month. Because of this, the $40-45k zone expected since the beginning of the year remains the target zone for December. And our experts expect BTC to grow to these levels, as well as to increase the capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market to $1.6-1.8 trillion.

Now the main resistance level for bitcoin is around $40 thousand. It can be expected that the cryptocurrency will overcome this psychological mark by mid-December. The optimistic scenario assumes bitcoin growth to $45 thousand by the end of the year and continued growth at a quiet pace to $55 thousand until halving in the bitcoin network in the spring of 2024.

Our weekly feature. Our experts analyzed the market situation and told how it may change for bitcoin this week

On Sunday, November 26, bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $37.7k, its price up 3% since the end of the previous week.

Key events of the past week:

• News of a $4.3 billion fine for crypto exchange Binance and the resignation of the head of Binance. The market had mixed reactions to the news.
• The expectation of the soon approval of bitcoin-ETF in the US was the main factor of investor optimism and BTC price growth.
• Weakening of the US dollar. Had a supporting effect on the bitcoin price.
• The growth of stock indices in the U.S. had a positive impact on the bitcoin price dynamics.

Last week, bitcoin traded in a range of $35,632 to $38,414.

On November 20, bitcoin closed at $37,448 after a slight increase of 0.24%. On November 21 and 22, the price plummeted to $35,632 amid news of a $4.3 billion fine for Binance and the resignation of Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao. However, by the end of Wednesday, November 22, bitcoin recovered its losses and rose by 4.66% to close at $37,408. Thursday and Friday were relatively quiet with slight price fluctuations around $37,500.

November 24 saw a 1.12% rise with a high of $38,414. It became the highest value in the last 18 months. Buyers failed to consolidate at these high levels. Almost immediately after the high was updated, there was a correction to $37,550. Nevertheless, bitcoin managed to stabilize above $37,500, maintaining most of the gained growth. At the end of the week bitcoin shows positive dynamics with growth of 0.84%.

The main driver of the upward dynamics were positive expectations of the soon approval of the spot bitcoin-ETF by the U.S. financial regulator. Weakening of the dollar and growth of stock indices in the U.S. also played into the hands of the “bulls”.

Buyers are in a hurry to get on the offensive, even though a new phase of growth has begun since November 21.

Our experts note that buyers overcame the recent drop after Binance’s CEO stepped down and needed to hold out for a couple days. BitRiver estimates that this would have allowed buyers to rest a bit. In order to tear down all the “stops” on short positions, up to the $42 thousand mark. If the price stalls under the $38,500 level. Then, most likely, we will stay under it until the beginning of winter.

Bitcoin showed positive dynamics, despite the intermediate correction. The positive mood of market participants remains, supported by the prospects of launching bitcoin-ETF. This gives grounds to expect the continuation of the uptrend in the medium term.

Among the important events this week it is worth highlighting the US GDP for the quarter (the second assessment will be held on Wednesday) and the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve System J. Powell (Friday).

Our weekly feature. Our experts have analyzed the situation on the market. And told how it may change in the coming week for Bitcoin

Bitcoin trades on November 13 opened with a decline. They were held calmly. During the American session, the price fell to $36,534.

On November 14, the correction continued and intensified after the publication of data on inflation in the United States. And which slowed to a 7-month low. Bitcoin fell in price along with the dollar as sellers reached protective stops on long positions and took out weak players who entered the market around $37k.

Despite the mounting pressure, buyers held their defenses. On November 15, the bitcoin rate recovered to $37,858. The sessional rally was aided by optimistic expectations about the approval of a spot bitcoin ETF.

On November 16, the price corrected by 4.48% to $36,163 amid profit taking on long positions after the rally. The upward momentum faded as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) again delayed a decision on two applications for cryptocurrency-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

The first application was submitted by Brazilian digital asset management company Hashdex. It proposed that the SEC convert its bitcoin futures-based exchange-traded fund, the Hashdex Bitcoin Futures ETF, into a spot bitcoin ETF. The SEC did not have time to review it within 45 days. Therefore, the decision on it was extended until January 1, 2024.

The second application was filed by the American company Grayscale – the largest digital asset manager in the world.

Grayscale expressed its desire to launch an ETF based on Ethereum futures – Grayscale Ethereum Futures Trust.The SEC also failed to review it within 45 days. And so the deadline was extended to January 15, 2024.

On November 17, bitcoin rose 1.25% to $36,613 at the end of the day.The price spent the day in the price range of $35,861 to $36,800 after falling to $35,500 on Thursday. Buyers are trying to keep the price above $35,500.And to then continue the upward movement pending ETF approval.

On cycles, the corrective phase ends on November 21. By timestamps, I have no change.With the bullish momentum fading, bearish sentiment is building. Buyers need to hold the $35k level to continue the rally before halving.

Key events of the past week:

• US inflation slowed to a 7-month low of 3.2% year-on-year in October, but had no impact on the crypto market.
• Bitcoin price approached $38k for the first time in a year and a half. This happened amid optimism around the possible approval of a spot bitcoin ETF.
• The bitcoin rate fell to $35,500 due to profit taking by investors after the price soared.
• Another delay by the SEC in deciding on applications to launch ETFs for bitcoin and Ethereum. This limited further growth.
• Bitcoin ended the week slightly lower, with buyers maintaining control of the market.

Last week, bitcoin traded in a range of $34,800 to $37,980.

What’s in store for us this week:

According to the cycles, the corrective phase ends on November 21. According to the time stamps, nothing has changed for me. As the bullish momentum fades, bearish sentiment is building up. Buyers need to hold the $35k level for the price to continue rising before halving.

Although a new growth phase starts on November 21, we expect a breakthrough to $42 th. from buyers on December 8. They should form a sideways trend above $35 th. And that will allow sellers to build up short positions, on which then buyers will “ride” up to $39 th.

On November 22, minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting will be released. Investors will be watching them to understand the details of the FOMC members’ discussion at the last meeting. Decrease in the dollar index after the publication of the minutes may become a trigger for growth of quotations.

In the U.S. this week will celebrate the national holiday – Thanksgiving Day, which will reduce the number of working days. Accordingly, liquidity on the global currency market may be low. And volatility may be high. Most often, when the U.S. has a day off. Then the markets are traded in narrow ranges. Therefore, the price dynamics in the crypto market will be determined by the news around ETFs.

Bitcoin bulls still control the market. There are no signals to sell. Our experts are waiting for the publication of the Fed minutes and renewed activity of buyers.

Our experts note that short-term investors currently hold 2.33 million bitcoin in their wallets, which is the lowest in several years

Amid the approaching halving of bitcoin (BTC), which is expected in April 2024. That now the supply deficit of the first cryptocurrency has reached an all-time high. And this is what Glassnode analysts write about in a new report.

According to the authors of the report, the upcoming halving represents an important fundamental, technical. And even a “philosophical” milestone for bitcoin. The total supply of bitcoin is becoming increasingly scarce. And circulating supply is already at historic lows.

At the moment, the wallets of short-term investors contain 2.33 million bitcoin coins. And that is the minimum for several years. As a rule, it is this volume that can be considered the real supply on the market. Since statistically it is short-term investors are ready to part with their coins in the short term.

In addition, experts record a constant outflow of coins of the first cryptocurrency from the wallets of exchanges. At the moment, the number of bitcoins on exchanges has reached a minimum since March 2020.

Wallets noted by analysts as long-term holders, on the contrary, continue to actively accumulate bitcoins. And thereby contributing to the market’s declining liquidity.

Our experts note that in October, Glassnode analysts estimated that long-term investors accumulate $1.35 billion in bitcoins every month. The experts also emphasized that the total number of bitcoins owned by long-term holders reached a new all-time high of more than 14.8 million BTC. And that makes up about 76% of the cryptocurrency’s circulating supply.

Our experts analyzed the market situation and told how it may change in the coming week for Bitcoin and the market as a whole

• 5 important events in the crypto market affecting the bitcoin rate for the week from October 30 to November 3:
• The US Federal Reserve meeting on November 1, which decided to keep the interest rate unchanged. This caused an increase in risk appetite.
• Fed chief Jerome Powell’s statements about a possible slowdown in the pace of future rate hikes. This also put pressure on the dollar and supported the bitcoin price.
• Investor expectations for the imminent approval of a spot bitcoin-ETF fueled interest in bitcoin earlier in the week.
• The publication of weak US labor market data on Friday reinforced expectations of a slowdown in Fed policy tightening.
• The price failed to consolidate above $35k.

Last week bitcoin traded in the range of $34-36 thousand. On October 30, the price of BTC fell to $34,474, but remained in a horizontal trend around $34,300. On October 31, the price rose slightly to $34,639, continuing to consolidate in anticipation of the US Federal Reserve results.

Detailed analysis of last week and conclusions

On November 1, there was a sharp rise to $35,421 after the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting. The growth was caused by investor optimism after the Fed head’s statements about a possible slowdown in rate hikes.

On November 2, the price rose to a weekly high of $35,984, from which the correction began. It was aided by a decline in optimism about the imminent approval of a spot bitcoin-ETF. Amid the failed offensive, the price fell to $34,300.

On November 3, at the end of the day, bitcoin fell in price by 0.64% to $34716. In general, trading was calm, without sharp bursts of volatility.

During the first half of the day, there was a gradual decline in cryptocurrency quotes. The rate fell to the level of $34,120, followed by a slight recovery.

Some support for the market was provided by the data on the situation in the U.S. labor market, published at the U.S. session. The indicators turned out to be weaker than market expectations. In particular, the number of new jobs for October amounted to 150 thousand instead of the expected 180 thousand. The previous figure was revised to 297 thousand from 336 thousand. And the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% from 3.8%, with expectations of 3.8%. And average hourly earnings rose 0.2%, compared with a 0.2% increase in the previous month, and a forecast of 0.3%.

Such data reinforced investor expectations that the US Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its monetary tightening cycle. This provided support for risky assets. Since the bitcoin rally was at the end of October. The reaction to the weakening dollar and the growth of stock indices was weak. The euphoria from expectations of spot ETF approval is fading.

What will happen to the bitcoin price in the coming days

Buyers showed themselves well, as they used the provided time window. And to carry the shorts above $35,200 and to get as close as possible to the level of $36 th. External conditions remain favorable for the upward movement. Only according to the calculated cycles is approaching the correction phase with a target of $33 thousand. And it may last from November 9 through November 21. The smaller the correction will be, the higher the probability of growth up to $42 th.

Temporary resistance is the zone of $35,000 – $35,150. Taking into account the weakness of the dollar and the weekly growth of stock indices. The buyers may have time to check the stops behind the level of $36 th. And it is logical, as the truncated formation is formed on the daily timeframe.

Thus, bitcoin demonstrated moderately positive dynamics this week. Our experts note that the key levels of the corridor remain $34 thousand and $36 thousand. To enter the positive zone, it is necessary to confidently overcome the resistance at $36 thousand. Buyers are better to go on the defensive and gain strength for the end of November: efforts will be required to pass new resistances.

Our monthly feature. Our experts analyzed the state of the market and told about what will happen to bitcoin in the coming month

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $34.4k on Tuesday, October 31. And its price has increased by about 28% over the past month. In the first days of October, the rate of the first cryptocurrency was at $27 thousand. And on October 16, the price briefly reached $30 thousand. And in the morning of October 24, bitcoin sharply added 18% in price, reaching $35 thousand for the first time this year.

We are unlikely to see an altcoin season this year

Our experts count November and December as months. Within the framework of which the cryptocurrency market capitalization can grow to at least $1.6 trillion. And ideally – to $1.8 trillion. Historically, the fourth quarter is successful for the cryptocurrency market, and so far October confirms this pattern.

The lack of fresh liquidity given the tight monetary policy (MPC) is certainly affecting the market. But however, demand for current crypto-oriented ETFs, even before spot bitcoin ETFs are approved, could be the reason for capitalization gains. And growth in the most capitalized assets. Expect BTC prices to rise to the $38k level in November, followed by a move into the $40k-$45k zone by the end of this year.

We are unlikely to see an “altcoin season” this year. And we expect market capitalization growth in November-December primarily due to assets from the top-10. The current macroeconomic situation is not suitable for risk-on strategies. And what we can see from the falling US stock market and the rise in gold. As a consequence, mid-cap crypto assets dependent on venture capital, aggressive investments are still experiencing a significant lack of funds. And they are unlikely to show a multiple price growth in the next month or two, our experts believe.

There should be strong new stimulus in the market this year

Now the situation on the cryptocurrency market is influenced by several factors. This is, first of all, investors’ expectations of approval for the launch of bitcoin ETFs. First, that the current spiral of bitcoin growth was triggered by rumors that the U.S. regulator approved a bitcoin ETF from BlackRock. And while the rumors were quickly denied. But the growth continued – reflecting the general positive mood of crypto investors about the prospects of such an approval. Everyone agrees that it will happen soon.

Secondly, bitcoin is affected by the tense geopolitical environment. And which has also triggered a rise in gold prices. Bitcoin is traditionally seen as “digital gold”. And so partly the capital was directed to diversify investment portfolios and in BTC . In addition, market participants expect bitcoin to rise in the run-up to the halving, which will take place in the spring of 2024.

However, there are also a number of negative factors that are restraining market growth. First of all, it is the expectation of stricter regulation of cryptocurrency exchanges and stablecoin issuers in the United States – one of the largest markets for cryptocurrencies. Therefore, we can expect moderate bitcoin growth in November. But a powerful growth spiral or bull cycle should not be expected yet. For this to happen, new powerful incentives must appear, which will be the catalyst for a new rally. Such a stimulus could be the approval of the launch of ETFs. Or either some signal regarding inflation risks in the U.S. from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). For example, a new stock market stimulus package.

Bitcoin price has overcome a number of key resistances what we expect in November

Since Bitcoin belongs to the class of risky assets. And the crypto market is influenced by the dynamics of the dollar and U.S. macro statistics. Among the key events for November, we can highlight the meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the speech of its chairman Jerome Powell at a press conference on November 1. On November 3, data on the labor market in the U.S. will be of interest. On November 14, the inflation report will be released. Data on consumer prices are extremely important. And as investors are interested in the regulator’s future actions on rates in December due to high inflation.

The recent rally of the BTC/USD pair to $35k was triggered by expectations of bitcoin-ETF approval. And it was supported by inflows into crypto funds and increased open interest in bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). The court also ordered the SEC to review Grayscale’s application for a spot bitcoin-ETF. Therefore, any published news or rumors (confirmed and unconfirmed) on the ETF will have a strong impact on the market.

During the last rally, the bitcoin price overcame a number of key resistances, testing the $35k level. After updating the high, the price has been in a sideways trend for six days. According to experts’ calculations, the downward correction is expected from November 9 to November 21.
Until November 9, buyers have time to move to the area of $36 th. If the price closes below $32.7 th before November 9, it may herald the beginning of correction. The target level for correction is $31.7 th.

Investors should be alerted by the lack of price growth after the Fed meeting on November 1 and Powell’s speech. And again, the less the price falls during the correction. The stronger will be the growth after November 21.

Our weekly feature. Our experts analyzed the market situation and told how it may change in the coming week for Bitcoin and the market as a whole.

On Sunday, October 29, bitcoin ( $BTC ) is trading at $34.2k. And its price has increased by 14.5% since the end of the previous week. Our experts have analyzed the situation on the market and assessed the prospects of bitcoin rate movement for the next seven days.

Last week’s analysis and highlights:

• Bitcoin price rose to $35,280 amid optimism around bitcoin-ETF approval.
• The SEC has been officially mandated to review Grayscale’s application to launch a spot bitcoin-ETF.
• SEC Commissioner Hester Pearce stated that the spot bitcoin-ETF should have been approved 5 years ago.
• The DXY dollar index hit a one-month low but was able to recoup all of its losses.
• After the rally, the price entered a consolidation between $33k and $35k.

Bitcoin has been trading in a range of $32,400 to $35,280 this week. On Monday, the price rose to $34,741. And on Tuesday, it reached a high of $35,280. This was followed by a correction to $33,390 on Friday.

On October 23, bitcoin rose 10.26% to $33,069. The rise was driven by several factors. First, the DXY dollar index hit a one-month low on the back of falling US government bond yields. Second, a U.S. court upheld the SEC’s review of Grayscale’s application to launch a spot bitcoin ETF. Thirdly, the rally was supported by technical factors – liquidation of short positions worth $161 mln and breakthrough of important resistance levels.

On October 24, the price of bitcoin rose 2.58% to a high of $35,280. Among the growth factors is the decision of the U.S. court obliging the SEC to reconsider Grayscale’s application. As well as news that BlackRock has assigned a ticker to a bitcoin-ETF pending approval. In addition, support came from a weakening dollar. However, by the evening, the dollar index reversed upward, stopping the bitcoin price growth.

On October 25, the price growth slowed to 1.69%, to the level of $34,496. Amid expectations of bitcoin-ETF approval, investors ignored the strengthening of the dollar and the decline in stock indices. Investors’ attention was drawn to the upcoming halving. Bitcoin’s share of the crypto market rose to 51.4%.

On October 26, the price of bitcoin fell by 1% to $34,151. The market was pressured by the strengthening of the dollar and the fall of technology stocks in the United States. The Nasdaq index fell by 2% and the S&P 500 fell by 1.2%. US 10-year bond yields fell to 4.88%. Fears of recession in the US have increased.

On October 27, the BTC/USDt pair fell by 0.76% to $33,892. During the U.S. session, the price declined to $33,390 amid falling stock indices. Since the end of July, the S&P500 index has fallen 10.2% to 4137. This week, US Q3 GDP data beat expectations, showing the economy accelerating at the fastest pace since mid-2021. Despite US Q3 GDP and expectations of a rate hike in December, fears of a recession in the country remain. Inflation continues to worry the Federal Reserve (Fed).

The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index showed that consumer price expenditures rose at the fastest monthly pace since May. But the annual PCE fell slightly in September, renewing concerns about high interest rates.

What’s in store for us next week with Bitcoin

We have a busy week ahead of us. The focus of economic data will be on employment numbers, including the ADP private sector employment report on Wednesday. And jobless claims on Thursday. And non-farm payrolls on Friday.

The market expects current monetary policy to remain in place. And despite the strong economy and tight labor market as inflation slows. But remains above the target level. In addition, the ISM Services report on business activity index in the US and China is expected. Geopolitical events also remain key drivers for traditional assets. Investors will continue to analyze the results of corporate reports.

The BTC/USDt pair is trading above $34k. According to the volume analysis, buying has noticeably decreased since Friday. This is understandable, because the price is in a sideways trend for a long time without continuing the rally. And when the price stands for a long time, the two-day flat starts to get on investors’ nerves. At this time short-term speculators, working on the downside, start to get involved.

By cyclic analysis there are no changes. The growth phase should last until November 9. Conditions are still favorable for growth.

An alarm bell for buyers may be the absence of upward movement after the speech of J. Powell on Wednesday after the FOMC meeting. According to the latest data from CME Group, rates will remain in the range of 5.25-5.50 with a 99.9% probability on Nov. 1 and an 80% probability on Dec. 13.

BitRiver forecasts that the decline phase may last from November 9 to November 21. Closing the day below $32,700 is likely to be a precursor to the beginning of the correction phase. For the correction, $31,700 should be selected as a support target level. Conclusions of our experts: We are waiting for the rate decision, Powell’s speech and the US labor market report.