Our Crypto-Upvotes experts have analyzed situation with Bitcoin on crypto market and told how it can change in next month.

Situation on cryptocurrency market completely depends on dynamics of American stock indices. Which collapsed after the speech of head of the Federal Reserve J. Powell at a conference in Jackson Hole. Over last 30 days, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P500 index is 0.77. Accordingly, if the U.S. stock market crashes. Then all risky assets, including cryptocurrency, will also collapse.

Fed is set to take control of inflation and is ready to aggressively raise rates to the detriment of the economy. Fed interest rate futures are pointing to a 75 basis point hike with a probability above 70%.

Since the Jackson Hole symposium, the technical picture for bitcoin has deteriorated. Sellers have broken down trend line from the low of $17,600 (June 18, 2022). They are restrained by support of $18-19 ths. below it the nearest target is near $12.5 ths.

Bitcoin technical analysis shows that situation has worsened

Investors’ attention is now riveted on US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data for August. According to the forecast, they are expected to show an increase in the number of employed people by 300 ths. compared to growth of 528 ths. in July. A strong jobs report will bolster expectations for the Fed to continue its aggressive 75 basis point rate hike. A sharp rate hike is a rally in the dollar and a decline in Bitcoin.

There was also another negative factor which had a negative impact on all risky assets in Asia. Chinese authorities imposed quarantine in Chengdu because of the COVID-19 outbreak. In the past two weeks in Chengdu about 600 patients with COVID-19 and about 300 asymptomatic carriers of coronavirus were identified. 21 million residents will remain in their homes. Businesses will close. Asian markets were followed by declines in European markets. As a result, futures on the S&P500 went down and pulled the pair BTC/USDt.

Also US dollar draws strength from the weakening of the single currency. Because of the energy crisis in Europe, gas prices are rising in Asia and the U.S.. This in turn leads to unwinding inflation in the world. Gas prices in the U.S. and Asia are rising after those in Europe. And the U.S. Fed is fighting inflation by raising rates. Since the euro accounts for about 57% of the dollar index.

Key event in September will be the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting. Investors fear a recession from a tightening of monetary policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve. A collapse in indices will trigger a fall in cryptocurrencies. Because buyers failed to pass the $25,500 level in mid-August, sellers continue to control market. The more the indexes fall, the more bitcoin will fall.

In next year, cryptocurrency market will be turbulent

So far, the situation for the technology sector and cryptocurrencies, which are strongly correlated with IT stocks, is alarming. Jerome Powell recent statements about the possible next key rate hike. And remaining inflation risks gave a signal to investors that the market will be turbulent in the next year. It is worth to be patient or to exit from high-risk assets in order to keep capital.

In our view, Bitcoin will continue to trade between $18K and $21K in September. We believe BTC will not even make it to $25K during September.

Forbes conducted a study of Bitcoin transactions. It showed that estimates of platforms that are considered reputable do not reflect real picture of BTC trading volume.

More than half of the trades on exchanges with BTC are fake. According to a study conducted by Forbes. The reasons are so-called “wash trading” and poor monitoring of exchanges.

Wash trading is when a trader repeatedly buys and sells the same asset over a short period of time. Thus trying to mislead other market participants about price or liquidity of asset. The purpose of these operations is to inflate trading volume and create the appearance of growing popularity of the asset. The Forbes article notes that wash trading also benefits exchanges.

The study found that BTC trading volumes calculated by platforms considered reputable do not reflect the real picture. Resources such as CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, Nomics and Messari give completely different estimates of daily Bitcoin trading. Forbes estimated the total daily trading volume of bitcoin on June 14 at $128 billion. This is half as much as the $262 billion volume reported by these platforms.

The most problematic in terms of counterfeit volumes are platforms. Which report big numbers but operate with little or no regulatory oversight. These are the likes of Binance, MEXC Global and Bybit. In total, less-regulated exchanges account for about $89 billion in real trading volume, according to the study. Whereas according to these platforms, the index was at $217 billion.

Opinion

Our experts are not surprised that volumes of BTC and other popular cryptocurrencies can be fake. Because we see large volumes on many non-popular exchanges. But in fact many of them don’t have big amount of users for those volumes which they show. So it’s not surprising that even big platforms like Binance use fake volumes.

But we believe that in the near future many exchanges will no longer be able to do this. Because many countries are restricting and starting to strictly regulate all major CEX exchanges.

Cryptocurrency storage platform BitGo failed to provide audited financial statements by a certain deadline. It violated terms of deal with Galaxy Digital. Review by our Crypto-Upvotes experts.

Galaxy Digital withdrew its offer to buy cryptocurrency service BitGo for $1.2 billion. The cryptocurrency storage platform violated the terms of the agreement. It failed to provide audited financial statements for 2021 by July 31.

Galaxy Digital said there was no liquidated damages due to the termination of the agreement. The company first became aware of its plans to buy BitGo in May 2021. The deal was scheduled to close in the fourth quarter of 2021. The deal between Galaxy Digital and BitGo could be the first “billion-dollar” deal in a cryptocurrency world.

At end of the second quarter of 2022, the total loss of Galaxy Digital reached $554.7 million. Company continues to consider a listing on the Nasdaq.

Resorts in Soneva hotel chain can now be paid for in Bitcoin or Ethereum, review by our experts Crypto-Upvotes

Resort chain Soneva hotels in Thailand and the Maldives are now accepting payments in Bitcoin and Ethereum. Cryptocurrency payment provider TripleA and payment platform Pomelo Pay are helping to make payments.

The cryptocurrency payment option will be available at Soneva Fushi hotels. As well as Soneva Jani and Soneva in Aqua in Maldives. And in Soneva Kiri in Thailand. Also for Bitcoin and Ethereum it is now possible to buy real estate in the Maldives at Soneva Villa Ownership.

The resort network can directly book rooms. And pay with cryptocurrency through a secure link. In addition, you can use a QR code to pay in cryptocurrency. Soneva adds that while any payments made using Bitcoin or Ethereum are 100 per cent non-refundable, credits can apply in line with its flexible cancellation policy.

“At Soneva, we have always endeavoured to be a pioneer in the hospitality industry, hence accepting cryptocurrencies as a payment method is another example of enabling our international guests to easily make payments from anywhere in the world,” said Bruce Bromley, chief financial officer, and deputy CEO of Soneva.

Our experts told us what prevents Bitcoin from rising in price. And what the prospects are for it to return to its maximums as it was in fall 2021

In November 2021, 12 years after its appearance, Bitcoin reached a price high of about $69,000. On January 1, 2022, the cryptocurrency was trading at $46,200. In June, its price fell to $17,600, renewing its low from December 2020.

Proponents and critics of cryptocurrencies make various predictions about the direction in which Bitcoin will go next. And what levels it may reach.

Optimistic prognosis

A return to the historical high around $69,000 is hardly possible on the horizon of the next 12 months.

Our experts believe that the fundamental factors for Bitcoin growth. Growth in the cost of money in USA and Europe (an increase in key rates) is necessary. Despite the existing name of BTC “digital gold”, it has not yet become a protective asset. But nothing prevents BTC from becoming such in the future.

With the current volatility of Bitcoin, its price can change by $20,000 in half a year. And if volatility does not increase, the approach to the historical highs will not happen earlier than in a year.

Pessimistic prognosis

Bitcoin follows the rate of U.S. stock exchanges. And this has been observed for a long time. For example, during the growth of indices, the price of bitcoin also grows. And during the fall – it goes down. The downtrend on the U.S. stock market is for a long time. Because the dynamics of inflation in the U.S. promises a further increase in Fed rates. And accordingly, a decrease in the quotations of the technology sector.

Our expert says that according to different estimates, recovery of stock indices in USA. Which have lost more than 10% since the beginning of the year, will take at least three years. That means the same recovery period to record levels can be predicted for Bitcoin. Most likely, the coin will reach above $60,000 only in 2025.

Major internet platforms in China have deleted more than 51,000 posts with illegal information about digital assets

China has blocked more than 12,000 accounts on local social networks. Their owners promoted and advertised cryptocurrency. This was reported by publication “Net Letter China” in its official account WeChat. In addition to closing accounts, Weibo, Baidu and other Chinese web platforms have deleted more than 51,000 posts with illegal advertising. Which advertises easy earnings through investing in cryptocurrencies.

Local units of Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) have been tasked with interviewing more than 500 commercial entities. They have been asked to remove illegal content.

Find accounts, articles, and websites that publish information about cryptocurrencies. This year, users of these social networks themselves actively helped and reported these violations. CAC also plans to continue cooperating with other Chinese agencies. To strengthen the fight against illegal cryptocurrency activity and improve security of funds.

In late June, China’s largest messenger WeChat, updated its usage rules to prohibit posting information about services and services related to cryptocurrency or NFT.

Advertising in China is still possible. And our crypto marketing agency “Crypto-Upvotes” is working on this issue. Already now we can offer advertising of your project. In popular Chinese Media and Weibo influencers. In the near future we will be able to offer billboard advertising in China.

But despite WeChat and other prohibitions in China, cryptocurrencies in China are very popular. Chinese investors take leading role in the world. We do articles in popular Chinese media. To order you need to provide us with text and a picture for your article. Our team will translate the texts into Chinese and prepare them for publication.

Additionally you can order Weibo influencers. We can offer influencers for any marketing budget. To order you need to provide a text and a picture or video. And texts in Chinese we make ourselves. Weibo is very popular and they haven’t introduced restrictions for cryptocurrencies yet. So you have time to order now.

Crypto marketing agency “Crypto-Upvotes” will help to tell about your project to millions of new investors from China.

How Crypto Exchanges use users’ personal information. And what exactly government interests.

Legal treatment of crypto exchanges varies greatly from country to country. A number of states officially allow cryptocurrency transactions.

In accordance with the international recommendations of the FATF. Operators of virtual asset services. Including crypto-exchanges, should collect data on participants of cryptocurrency transactions.

What Crypto Exchanges must do.

They are required to conduct a rigorous check on their users – both individuals and businesses. Crypto exchanges cannot disclose this data without a valid reason, for example in USA. In USA, 4th amendment to Constitution prohibits illegal searches and seizures of data. In order for a crypto exchange to release personal data, there must be a court order. A mere request from law enforcement will not be enough.

Monitoring activities of users of various crypto-platforms takes place worldwide as well. State authorities most often request information on what kind of cryptocurrency the user owns. And how often he or she makes transactions. In addition, the source of funds may be of interest.

Crypto exchanges monitor suspicious trades.

Legislative requirements for suspicious trades have been in place for a long time. Crypto exchanges are required to report suspicious trades. And provide detailed reports on transactions over $10,000. And also to keep information about money transfers. But this obligation is so far only relevant in those countries. That have allowed cryptocurrency exchange at the legislative level.

If an exchange gathers evidence of illegal activity. It will be required to notify law enforcement. Most often, crypto exchanges simply block suspicious accounts. Or they restrict any transactions other than transfers to a local wallet.

Users cannot find out if their personal data has been provided to a third party. But such information can appear, as in the case of Coinbase. Coinbase sell crypto user geo-location data to U.S. ICE immigrations and customs agency.

Our experts say that cryptocurrency platforms themselves use personal data to ensure legal procedures. And compliance with all requirements.

Who is monitoring you and what do they want to know?

It is almost any worldwide country that has legally binding methods for analyzing centralized user data.

They are interested in what coins you have. And how often you trade them. As well as where your funds used to buy cryptocurrencies come from. And they also track where coins are sent when they leave centralized exchanges. If you’re storing coins in an offline wallet. There’s a good chance that. One or even more governments will find out about that wallet address. Regardless of where you move the coins that have ever been in a centralized exchange, they can track you.

How to avoid being watched?

In answer to the question of how to avoid government control. We can say this: DEX exchanges and confidential coins are really only answer we know. If you use centralized services, you take a risk.

Conclusions:

Our Crypto-Upvotes experts warn you. Always check website to which you are providing your personal information. Don’t give your personal information to everyone who asks for it. Use one or two exchange at most where you will disclose your personal information. In principle, there is no notification mode, so you won’t know that your data has been disclosed. Our experts believe that disclosure of personal data in crypto-industry is possible only in extreme cases.

Hidden mining threat (CryptoJacking) reached a record level in first half of 2022: number of detected attacks raised to 66.7 million, 30% more than in first six months of 2021

Hidden mining or CryptoJacking is a cybercrime. It involves unauthorized use of devices (computers, smartphones, tablets or servers) by hackers to mine cryptocurrency. Hidden mining is often done through security exploits in mobile apps. As well as web browsers and goes unnoticed by victims.

Cyber security company SonicWall recorded 45.1 million attacks in the first quarter. This is their highest number in their history of monitoring. However, in Q2 there were half as many cases – 21.6 million. According to a study, falling prices for cryptocurrencies may be a reason for this. According to experts’ forecast, the “summer recession of CryptoJacking” will continue in Q3 of this year. But attacks will peak again in Q4.

What drives growth of hidden mining and why it is dangerous

Two factors are responsible for general growth in the number of hidden mining incidents. First factor is a critical vulnerability in the Log4j Java library. It was found in 2021. It allows hackers to gain unauthorized access to hundreds of users’ apps remotely around world. In addition, Hidden Mining is an attack with less risk for scammers. Than extortion, because victims of scammers often do not know that their computers or networks are being used. As a result, cybercriminals have less chance of being detected. Normal users see their devices running slower. But it’s hard to connect this to criminal activity.

At least one extortion group has already publicly announced its intentions to switch to hidden mining. And if they do, it won’t be the first time cryptojacking has replaced extortion software.

The number of attacks on government, health care, and education sectors decreased by 78%, 87%, and 96%, respectively. However, cases of hidden mining in financial industry increased by 269%, and in retail by 63%.

Earlier, FBI reported that American investors who used fake crypto-applications and sites lost at least $42.7 million. According to FBI, 244 people were victims of fraudsters who create copies of web pages and mobile wallets of famous companies.

Our Crypto-Upvotes experts warn you to be careful when visiting unknown sites. Or when installing applications on your devices. Hidden mining is a real risk that you could lose your money.

Startups related to metaworlds and WEB3 continue to attract huge funds for their development. What awaits cryptocommunity with arrival of new technologies, and what latest developments of this industry are focused on

Last few weeks bring news about new venture capital funds in cryptocurrency sector. NFT platform Immutable launched a $500 million venture fund, Multicoin Capital is investing $430 million in crypto startups, and Binance has raised more than $500 million to launch its venture fund. While some analysts talk about the onset of crypto winter, WEB3 projects are gaining popularity.

A lot of new projects will use new tokens within their ecosystems. The easiest and most budget-friendly way to provide new tokens with liquidity. This is to create liquidity pools on DeFi platforms paired with existing assets.

This will lead to an increase in DeFi sector funds currently being used in smart contracts on a particular platform or across the market as a whole (total value locked; TVL). The imminent potential increase in TVL due to the arrival of traditional financial products in DeFi has been discussed by many sector analysts in their reviews.

Initial liquidity for new pairs will be provided by funds from developers’ funds. Then, the rest of the users who want the tokens of the new projects will join the liquidity supply. Participation in the new pools will in many cases involve swaps (temporary exchanges) of users’ existing tokens on the platforms in order to obtain tokens of the desired pair. Thus, the emergence of even one new popular pair will inevitably lead to the popularization of other platform pairs as well.

Possible arrival of Killer App

Increased funds for developing new solutions for this sector will lead to an influx of new specialists. Ideas of which may turn out to be breakthrough ones. Despite almost a decade of history. All cryptoprojects have not yet been able to create Killer App, coveted and expected by many. It is an app that would demonstrate the undeniable convenience of new technological solutions for the entire population of world. Which would lead to an acceleration of blockchain expansion.

New venture capitalists rate the emergence of such an app as the most likely to happen in the area of gaming projects. A large number of P2E and x-2-earn developments are among them. X-2-earn involves replacing  “X” in a phrase with any other action in order to obtain rewards. For example, such an action can even be useful to the planet collecting and recycling garbage.

Everyone has been waiting for Killer App since BTC appeared in 2014. A combination of many conditions is necessary for the emergence of Killer App. Thus, the number of attempts to develop different apps is important for the sector. To increase probability of combining all conditions to achieve desired effect.

From histories of companies that develop computer games. We know that despite technical similarities of many products. Only a few of these games became really popular. Their success was due to a combination of many factors necessary for popularity as well as good marketing.

New earning opportunities and popularity of WEB3 projects

The attraction of users to new projects will, to some extent, take place through Giveaways and Airdrop. In this way, users will be able to earn a small amount of money without investing their own money.

Tracking promising projects at an early stage. It helps to notice in time a message about token allocation or NFT. You can get a valuable digital asset for the simplest actions. It is using bridge between networks, swapping on DEX or providing liquidity in a new pair.

The increase in the number of projects under development will also affect the labor market. New projects will be in demand from designers, UI and UX specialists. As well as copywriters, SMM-managers, analysts and developers who will be interested in further development in blockchain technology.

Decentralized transactions allow buyers and sellers to set their own terms for cryptocurrency transactions. Main benefits and disadvantages of P2P

Peer-to-peer (P2P) trading is direct trade of users with each other without an exchange as an agent. When working on a traditional crypto exchange, platform organizes transaction on behalf of client. And market price determines the exact price of asset at moment of transaction. P2P trading implies a transaction directly between users on terms they choose.

However, such transactions carry certain risks due to lack of a third party. Large platforms provide some protection for the parties to transactions by offering escrow accounts, feedback systems and user ratings. When making P2P transactions outside of a crypto platform, risks of coming across scammers increase a lot.

How P2P works

A P2P platform is a meeting place for buyers and sellers. Allowing them to conclude a deal on favorable terms for both parties. A user publishes an ad on a platform, specifying specific terms for buying or selling cryptocurrency. These are terms such as price, payment methods and limits.

Second party browses listings and, after selecting optimal conditions, places an order to conduct a transaction with a specific seller. Platforms offer a variety of filters for searching. You can select merchants by their location, payment methods, rating, and even view only those who are fully verified. Most platforms offer information on specific sellers: how many orders they executed, customer reviews, and trade volumes.

Exchange is a guarantor of transaction transparency and honesty. Also platform resolves disputes between its participants. Many exchanges offer escrow for transaction time. Escrow accounts are used: assets are held on them until a buyer makes a payment.

Verification is not always required to work on P2P platforms. Some services do not require personal information. And somewhere they only ask for a phone number or e-mail address. But there are also platforms that require full KYC verification and Google Authenticator. Sometimes services ask for additional information to increase trading limits. But mostly they allow trading cryptocurrencies without disclosing a lot of personal information.

Also, to attract new users, cryptoplatforms offer referral programs. Client receives a percentage of exchange commission from each transaction of their invited users. Opportunities for market participants to buy cryptocurrency on P2P exchanges are constantly expanding.

Benefits of P2P

• When trading on P2P exchanges, many more payment methods are available compared to traditional platforms. Payment methods include bank transfers, cash, using e-wallets, PayPal, gift cards, SWIFT transfers, Western Union and others.
• P2P platforms in most cases allow traders to connect to a service and conduct transactions with zero fees. Not all P2P exchanges offer such service. That’s why it’s a strong point to review terms and conditions of your chosen marketplace. Some exchanges impose a small commission for placing an ad or % of transaction amount.
• Transaction protection with an escrow service blocks funds until parties comply with transaction terms. If either party fails to do so, cryptocurrency or fiat funds are returned.
• You don’t have to have a bank account to buy cryptocurrency on a P2P exchange. Most platforms require only Internet access and a phone.

Disadvantages of P2P

• Although P2P transactions are fast enough, one party may delay the transaction for a variety of reasons. Also, buyer or seller may change his or her mind and cancel transaction while processing transaction. A normal transaction can take anywhere from 10 min to several days (depending on chosen payment method).
• Liquidity on P2P platforms is lower than on CEX exchanges. Therefore, traders making large transactions usually prefer to work on a standard exchange or over-the-counter trading. When platforms provide options to buy and sell cryptocurrency from an administrator or broker (OTC).

Our Crypto-Upvotes experts warn that as with many other cryptocurrency transactions. When you trade on P2P-platform there is a high risk of entering into a deal with a scammer. To prevent meeting with a scammer, you should choose a solid platform for transactions and carefully read statistics of partners. Or choose large CEX exchanges for P2P trading: Binance, OKX, etc.