Bitcoin halving could happen a few months earlier than anticipated review by our Crypto-Upvotes experts

Due to the increase in Bitcoin mining volumes, next halving (planned reduction of miners’ rewards) may occur several months earlier than predicted. According to analyst portal The TIE – it may happen as early as Q4 2023.

BTC Halving is reducing twice rewards for a mined block. This was originally built into rules of BTC network. At first, miners received 50 BTC per mined block. Then on November 28, 2012, rewards were reduced to 25 BTC. And on July 9, 2016, to 12.5 BTC, and on May 11, 2020, to 6.25 BTC. Next halving is to take place on block 840,000. Presumably, production of which was announced as May 3, 2024.

Usually, for calculating halving dates, average Bitcoin block mining time of 10 minutes is used. But analytics platforms use constantly updated blockchain statistics to calculate. And to estimate current average Bitcoin block mining time, and then use that number for calculations. According to analysts, this makes the countdown more accurate. A similar method is used by CoinMarketCap platform. Which predicts halving also earlier than planned – in February 2024.

Analysts say that the reason why hashrate is approaching is that there is an increase in BTC mining. Now hashrate network has reached historical highs of more than 284 EH/s.

In 2013, an Cryptoinvestor bought 5,000 BTC at about $660 per coin. Now he withdrew Bitcoin, which is currently trading at $19000+

On September 5, an Cryptoinvestor withdrew 5,000 BTC ($96 million at exchange rate at time of transaction) from address, which had been inactive for last 9 years. In 2013, a crypto investor bought Bitcoin at a price of about $660 per coin. During this period, investments increased in value 29 times.

Recently, more and more old holders have begun to withdraw Bitcoin from their wallets. On night of March 10, сryptoinvestor withdrew 489 BTC ($20 million at the time of transaction). His wallet had been inactive for at least 11 years. Unknown bought 489 BTC for $50 at end of 2010. On March 10, he withdrew the cryptocurrency, which went up 400,000 times in price.

Our experts point out that it is useful to be a long-term holder. You just need to buy a promising cryptocurrency and not touch that wallet for a few years. Not a single bank in the world can bring such % of profit. So buy coins from famous projects and forget about this wallet for 3-5 years at least and then maybe you will become a millionaire.

Our Crypto-Upvotes experts have analyzed situation with Bitcoin on crypto market and told how it can change in next month.

Situation on cryptocurrency market completely depends on dynamics of American stock indices. Which collapsed after the speech of head of the Federal Reserve J. Powell at a conference in Jackson Hole. Over last 30 days, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P500 index is 0.77. Accordingly, if the U.S. stock market crashes. Then all risky assets, including cryptocurrency, will also collapse.

Fed is set to take control of inflation and is ready to aggressively raise rates to the detriment of the economy. Fed interest rate futures are pointing to a 75 basis point hike with a probability above 70%.

Since the Jackson Hole symposium, the technical picture for bitcoin has deteriorated. Sellers have broken down trend line from the low of $17,600 (June 18, 2022). They are restrained by support of $18-19 ths. below it the nearest target is near $12.5 ths.

Bitcoin technical analysis shows that situation has worsened

Investors’ attention is now riveted on US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data for August. According to the forecast, they are expected to show an increase in the number of employed people by 300 ths. compared to growth of 528 ths. in July. A strong jobs report will bolster expectations for the Fed to continue its aggressive 75 basis point rate hike. A sharp rate hike is a rally in the dollar and a decline in Bitcoin.

There was also another negative factor which had a negative impact on all risky assets in Asia. Chinese authorities imposed quarantine in Chengdu because of the COVID-19 outbreak. In the past two weeks in Chengdu about 600 patients with COVID-19 and about 300 asymptomatic carriers of coronavirus were identified. 21 million residents will remain in their homes. Businesses will close. Asian markets were followed by declines in European markets. As a result, futures on the S&P500 went down and pulled the pair BTC/USDt.

Also US dollar draws strength from the weakening of the single currency. Because of the energy crisis in Europe, gas prices are rising in Asia and the U.S.. This in turn leads to unwinding inflation in the world. Gas prices in the U.S. and Asia are rising after those in Europe. And the U.S. Fed is fighting inflation by raising rates. Since the euro accounts for about 57% of the dollar index.

Key event in September will be the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting. Investors fear a recession from a tightening of monetary policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve. A collapse in indices will trigger a fall in cryptocurrencies. Because buyers failed to pass the $25,500 level in mid-August, sellers continue to control market. The more the indexes fall, the more bitcoin will fall.

In next year, cryptocurrency market will be turbulent

So far, the situation for the technology sector and cryptocurrencies, which are strongly correlated with IT stocks, is alarming. Jerome Powell recent statements about the possible next key rate hike. And remaining inflation risks gave a signal to investors that the market will be turbulent in the next year. It is worth to be patient or to exit from high-risk assets in order to keep capital.

In our view, Bitcoin will continue to trade between $18K and $21K in September. We believe BTC will not even make it to $25K during September.

Forbes conducted a study of Bitcoin transactions. It showed that estimates of platforms that are considered reputable do not reflect real picture of BTC trading volume.

More than half of the trades on exchanges with BTC are fake. According to a study conducted by Forbes. The reasons are so-called “wash trading” and poor monitoring of exchanges.

Wash trading is when a trader repeatedly buys and sells the same asset over a short period of time. Thus trying to mislead other market participants about price or liquidity of asset. The purpose of these operations is to inflate trading volume and create the appearance of growing popularity of the asset. The Forbes article notes that wash trading also benefits exchanges.

The study found that BTC trading volumes calculated by platforms considered reputable do not reflect the real picture. Resources such as CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, Nomics and Messari give completely different estimates of daily Bitcoin trading. Forbes estimated the total daily trading volume of bitcoin on June 14 at $128 billion. This is half as much as the $262 billion volume reported by these platforms.

The most problematic in terms of counterfeit volumes are platforms. Which report big numbers but operate with little or no regulatory oversight. These are the likes of Binance, MEXC Global and Bybit. In total, less-regulated exchanges account for about $89 billion in real trading volume, according to the study. Whereas according to these platforms, the index was at $217 billion.

Opinion

Our experts are not surprised that volumes of BTC and other popular cryptocurrencies can be fake. Because we see large volumes on many non-popular exchanges. But in fact many of them don’t have big amount of users for those volumes which they show. So it’s not surprising that even big platforms like Binance use fake volumes.

But we believe that in the near future many exchanges will no longer be able to do this. Because many countries are restricting and starting to strictly regulate all major CEX exchanges.

Resorts in Soneva hotel chain can now be paid for in Bitcoin or Ethereum, review by our experts Crypto-Upvotes

Resort chain Soneva hotels in Thailand and the Maldives are now accepting payments in Bitcoin and Ethereum. Cryptocurrency payment provider TripleA and payment platform Pomelo Pay are helping to make payments.

The cryptocurrency payment option will be available at Soneva Fushi hotels. As well as Soneva Jani and Soneva in Aqua in Maldives. And in Soneva Kiri in Thailand. Also for Bitcoin and Ethereum it is now possible to buy real estate in the Maldives at Soneva Villa Ownership.

The resort network can directly book rooms. And pay with cryptocurrency through a secure link. In addition, you can use a QR code to pay in cryptocurrency. Soneva adds that while any payments made using Bitcoin or Ethereum are 100 per cent non-refundable, credits can apply in line with its flexible cancellation policy.

“At Soneva, we have always endeavoured to be a pioneer in the hospitality industry, hence accepting cryptocurrencies as a payment method is another example of enabling our international guests to easily make payments from anywhere in the world,” said Bruce Bromley, chief financial officer, and deputy CEO of Soneva.

Our experts told us what prevents Bitcoin from rising in price. And what the prospects are for it to return to its maximums as it was in fall 2021

In November 2021, 12 years after its appearance, Bitcoin reached a price high of about $69,000. On January 1, 2022, the cryptocurrency was trading at $46,200. In June, its price fell to $17,600, renewing its low from December 2020.

Proponents and critics of cryptocurrencies make various predictions about the direction in which Bitcoin will go next. And what levels it may reach.

Optimistic prognosis

A return to the historical high around $69,000 is hardly possible on the horizon of the next 12 months.

Our experts believe that the fundamental factors for Bitcoin growth. Growth in the cost of money in USA and Europe (an increase in key rates) is necessary. Despite the existing name of BTC “digital gold”, it has not yet become a protective asset. But nothing prevents BTC from becoming such in the future.

With the current volatility of Bitcoin, its price can change by $20,000 in half a year. And if volatility does not increase, the approach to the historical highs will not happen earlier than in a year.

Pessimistic prognosis

Bitcoin follows the rate of U.S. stock exchanges. And this has been observed for a long time. For example, during the growth of indices, the price of bitcoin also grows. And during the fall – it goes down. The downtrend on the U.S. stock market is for a long time. Because the dynamics of inflation in the U.S. promises a further increase in Fed rates. And accordingly, a decrease in the quotations of the technology sector.

Our expert says that according to different estimates, recovery of stock indices in USA. Which have lost more than 10% since the beginning of the year, will take at least three years. That means the same recovery period to record levels can be predicted for Bitcoin. Most likely, the coin will reach above $60,000 only in 2025.

Crypto-Upvotes experts tell about variants of making money in unstable market

Now cryptocurrency market, like the global market, is in a bearish trend and many investors are losing their money. High inflation in developed countries, logistical problems because of COVID19, China, which has not recovered from a pandemic – all this has a very strong impact on markets.

For stock market, everything is quite clear: shares of high-tech sector will obviously continue to fall. But things are not so simple for cryptocurrencies.

Correlation of crypto market with stock indices has been high for the last two years. Consequently, BTC should fall in price. But cryptocurrency market is more open to manipulation by big investors. This means that now the “whales” will try their best to remove small traders from market. Who are trying to make money on the expected fall of BTC.

One of the options to make money in a volatile market is to open short positions on Bitcoin. Which is likely to renew its many-month lows. Although it’s showing growth right now. It is worth placing short orders considering that the cryptocurrency is a highly volatile asset. It can fall as well as jump in price by many percent in a day.

That’s what we’re seeing now: even though everyone was expecting bitcoin to fall. BTC suddenly began to rise and passed $21,000. So stops should be set higher. Although this involves some risk, if predictions do not come true.

In general, it is very risky to make short-term bets on an unstable market. It is better to choose a couple of assets that can be held for 2-3 years. In addition to bitcoin, we would add Ethereum to our investment portfolio. Which is preparing to switch to Proof-of-Stake. Solana is also worth adding to your portfolio. Because decentralized financial applications will clearly show an increase in liquidity and user base. And consequently, many projects will choose this blockchain for their projects.

Disclaimer

Crypto-Upvotes experts do not give investment advice. This material is published for informational purposes only. Cryptocurrency is a volatile asset that can lead to financial losses.

There are several questions about cryptocurrencies and BTC that are popular among newcomers to cryptoindustry. We explain what’s wrong with them and why it’s better not to ask them.

Those wishing to start interacting with cryptocurrencies often ask the same questions on the topic of buying a particular cryptoasset. It is these questions that are practically taboo in many communities professionally dealing with cryptocurrencies.

Considering such uncomfortable questions, as in case of damaging advice, will help to better understand how to do right. And also improve your understanding of the basics of investing and trading cryptocurrencies.

The most popular question: Buy BTC for $20,000 or not ?

Whether to buy BTC at $20,000 or similar questions about other crypto assets is the most popular question. It is impossible for professionals working with blockchain assets to answer such a question in one word or even a few sentences. For a satirical analogy, a fictional situation could be made. In which a person would walk up to a doctor on a street and ask if they should take a cough syrup. Without having proper information about an individual’s situation and some analysis of all available data. This doctor would not be able to answer yes or no to such a question.

Exactly the same situation for crypto experts and traders sounds questions about whether, for example, to buy ETH at $1,000. To answer such a question, a specialist will need to know a lot of information regarding the situation of a “new investor”. Does this new investor already own cryptocurrencies. If so, at what prices he bought. And is he familiar with the basic principles of investing and money management. Does he know all the risks of any crypto investments. Whether this investor is planning a short-term position or an investment in a long-term position and many other questions.

In order to correctly assess the situation and allocate the right share in the portfolio to a new asset for this investor. It is also desirable for a crypto expert to know the total amount of already existing and potentially possible crypto portfolio.

As you can see from the nature of questions, a conversation like this definitely won’t fit into a few sentences. This kind of communication also implies a certain level of trust between people. Which should be based on a mutually beneficial contract, or a friendly or family relationship.

Next popular question: Which project will go to the moon?

The next category of questions is requests for evaluation of certain investment ideas. Unfortunately, a lot of users are often ready to invest all 100% of their deposits in one project. Most often it is a new project advertised by marketers. And they don’t have even one reliable sector in their crypto portfolio – BTC, ETH, BNB, ADA, SOL, DOT and others.

Can a crypto expert definitely answer questions about investment attractiveness of this or that project? He can, but a detailed answer will definitely take more time. Than a conversation over a cup of coffee and will be more like an audit service – due diligence. Which includes drawing up an objective vision of an object of investment. Assessment of investment risks, a complex study of project activities and a complex check of crypto-market.

All of above mentioned applies to classic investing as well. However, in addition to these points, blockchain due diligence will also include research into where best to store crypto assets. As well as studying the issues of passive income through stacking. Or other similar mechanisms, if a long-term investment is planned.

Let’s make a conclusion

Having considered the most popular questions, we can conclude. That in most cases, if a person asking a question has a serious intention to start investing in cryptocurrency. He will need to take enough time to educate himself in this matter. Or take advantage of a paid consultation from a crypto specialist. It is also worth noting that professionals working with digital assets like to get new information from any source. Therefore, they will treat any question better if they add some interesting fact to it. Or their own observations on the market situation, made on the basis of their own research.

Another reason why traders and analysts do not like to give advice. It is hidden in the fact that any advice must be able to be realized. A newcomer receiving even an accurate signal to buy can do otherwise. And a simple situation for an expert will be catastrophic for a newcomer. Because of excessive manipulation of leverage. Or due to incorrectly set stop-loss and take-profit.

So, recommendation to buy BTC or other crypto asset at a certain price can lead to a lot of negative consequences. And a newcomer will then start accusing his failure of advice provided by a crypto-expert. If price goes up, but just a little. Then newcomers will say that they have not gained enough money. If price goes up, but not immediately, they will say that they could have bought cheaper. Even more predictable will be the reaction of an unprepared cryptocurrency buyer to long-term price moves below entry point before the start of growth. By the time growth starts, new trader will already sell everything at a loss. Therefore, our Crypto-Upvotes experts recommend to study everything carefully by yourself. And contact only professional cryptocurrency traders.

Our experts told what marks should reach price of BTC to continue recovery.

Last weekend, bitcoin continued to grow and by Monday morning passed $22,300. And on July 18, BTC is trading at $22,200, up 3% on Monday. And for one week – by 8.7%.

Incomplete week from July 11 to July 15 was not easy. In the first half of the week the pair BTC/USDT declined to $18,900. The fall began on July 10 and intensified on Monday amid a sell-off in US stocks. Investors were withdrawing money before release of important inflation data and beginning of II quarter reporting season in USA. Also, fall was due to increased number of Covid-19 cases in China.

On Wednesday, the situation on crypto market stabilized after multidirectional fluctuations. Sharp fluctuations were caused by the report on inflation in the USA for June. Buyers were able to defend the $20,000 level and close a day at $20,234. US inflation data raised fears that Fed could raise key interest rates by 100 basis points this month.

After the statistics were released, S&P500 and Nasdaq indices declined, but recouped some of their losses. The market did not collapse as two Fed officials said they were in favor of a 75 basis point rate increase in July. This reduced chances of a more aggressive move on the latest inflation data. Market is ready for a 75 basis point increase.

On Thursday, BTC/USDT recovered to $20,900. On Friday, the price recovered to $21 thousand following US indices. During this day situation did not change.

Market is controlled by sellers. BTC hashrate fell 27% to 159.41 EH/s due to the shutdown of miners in Texas. For miners and market, this is a bearish signal. Investors still fear a collapse of BTC to $10, 000-$13,000 range.

Our Crypto-Upvotes experts made a technical analysis to beat a bear market after reaching price of $22,000. Buyers need to pass a level of $23,500. Than faster it will be passed, the more probability of recovery to $26,500 is higher.

Our experts listed factors affecting current cryptocurrency prices. And discussed possible bearish trend change to bullish and possible Bitcoin growth.

Bitcoin price has fallen 70% from its all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021. In 2022, the value of the first cryptocurrency reached a maximum of $47,500 at end of March and has since fallen to current prices around $20,000. Crypto-Upvotes experts listed reasons for price declines in cryptocurrency market and told when a bull market may start.

Bears are winning now.

Now few people are willing to take risks. And the reason for this is the rising cost of funding after a Federal Reserve rate hike. This also says the financial director and head of trading operations ICB Fund Chen Limin. In his opinion, the situation could be exacerbated by a possible decline in the U.S. economy and turbulence in raw materials markets.

Our experts also believe that most likely current bear market will drag on. Growth of cryptocurrency capitalization may start not earlier than 2024, and before that the market will need to go through “self-cleaning from the most unstable crypto projects. Some institutional investors and lenders have already seen problems with these projects because of falling quotes.

According to our experts, the price of bitcoin now tends towards $10,000. But lower values of the price are also possible. Price of $20,000 proved to be difficult to break through for a complete departure below this price now needed a pause. But everything goes to a soon victory of sellers over buyers.

According to our expert, the reason, which initially contributed to the growth of the market – purchases from institutional investors. Now it has become a main driver of price falls. When Federal Reserve decided to raise rates, funds and lenders left the risky cryptocurrency market to free up funds to support more important positions.

The next rise will require a return of capital back into cryptocurrency markets. And that will only happen after the Fed decides to stimulate market activity again. And that is a long way off, because the Fed will want to make sure that inflation is completely beaten and only after that will it start to ease monetary policy again.

Has Bictoin reached bottom? Will bear market end soon and start bull market?

Now there is a major outflow of bitcoin from exchanges. And this indicates that investors see it as a certain area of interest. And the very withdrawal of assets means moving them to long-term storage. Our experts believe that this is one of the signals that this cycle of decline is coming to an end.

Investors do not trust CEX exchanges because of blockages and restrictions on their exchange accounts. CEX exchanges support different sanctions, they have security problems and many other reasons forcing investors to withdraw assets from exchanges to a more secure place, such as cold wallets. This is already a very good signal for the crypto market, our experts believe.

Crypto-Upvotes experts did an analysis and saw that the balances on exchanges have been systematically decreasing since 2020 and are now at 2018 levels. But the number of non-zero balances is increasing all the time. This fact signals that more and more people are “accepting and trusting” Bitcoin, total number of users and wallets is increasing.

Many Whales have been active since mid-June, when the bitcoin price went down to a $20,000 zone , and smaller investors have been active since the $30,000 mark.

Our experts think it is quite likely that we have already reached bottom or are very close to it. And a loosening of Fed policy could positively motivate markets.
Exactly then the recovery period will begin, the Fed rate will be 3.23%-3.5% by the end of the year. And improvement of situation on crypto market and start of a new growth phase is predicted already in 4Q of this year.