How the crash of banks in the U.S. affects crypto market

Our experts told us how the banking crisis in the U.S. affects the prices of cryptocurrencies. And why they are perceived as an alternative investment asset amid uncertainty.

On Monday, May 1, regulators closed the troubled American bank First Republic. The bank went under the external management of the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). The collapse of First Republic set another anti-record. This bank was the third largest of the collapsed financial companies since the 2008 crisis.

At the opening of trading on May 2, shares of three more American banks – PacWest Bancorp, Western Alliance and Metropolitan – collapsed by almost 30%. Because of the volatility, exchanges suspended trading in shares of all three financial institutions. At the same time, bitcoin gained 2% in price, rising to $28.5 thousand after its recent fall.

Banking crisis is just starting

The banking crisis has not yet shown itself on the world stage. But the fact that regulators have to figure out how to put out the blazing fire is evident in their comments, according to our experts.

In general, the banking crisis as a crisis of confidence in the banking system helps cryptocurrencies. But it would be too reckless to expect such a straightforward correlation, our experts say. Bitcoin exchange rate, takes into account other factors. For example, regulatory uncertainty, the state of financial stability or problems of stabelcoin issuers. It also takes into account inflation, approaching halving or expiration of Bitcoin futures contracts.

In the last week of April, bitcoin’s price rose on the back of First Republic’s problems. When there was still no news of its final collapse. However, cryptocurrency trading was quite unstable. Because in addition to the impact of the banking crisis on the cryptocurrency rate, investors were guided by the inflation figures. And also on the policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), the possibility of recession and the weakening of the dollar.

First Republic became the fourth U.S. bank to collapse this year. Silvergate and Signature closed in March. Which largely focused on crypto-industry customers. And also Silicon Valley Bank, the collapse of which also hit the rate of the second most capitalized USD Coin (USDC) stabelcoin. If in the case of the first two there was a clearly visible dependence on the crypto market. First Republic Bank seems to have collapsed without any connection to digital assets. According to reports studied by journalists of specialized publications, the bank lacked any cryptocurrency capital.

Linking the U.S. banking crisis to the rise of Bitcoin

The link between the U.S. banking crisis and the rise of Bitcoin is that both events are indicative of the instability of the banking system. And they are alarming for investors. Cryptocurrencies act as an alternative investment asset that is not subject to control by central banks and does not depend on financial institutions. The collapse of banks could increase interest in cryptocurrencies. As many people are looking for safe places to invest in times of economic instability, our experts believe.

As banks face insolvency, their depositors try to withdraw money from their deposits en masse. Any collapse provokes the depositors to withdraw money from other banks as well. Which also run the risk of liquidity shortages. As long as the money is in the bank, the bank actually owns it. Cryptocurrencies, on the other hand, give a tool for owning value with full control of its owner.

However, we should not forget that the cryptocurrency market is also subject to fluctuations and instability. Especially in light of strict regulation by governments and central banks. In addition, cryptocurrencies can be subject to fraud and cyberattacks. And this can cause investors to lose money. Thus, any investment, including cryptocurrencies, should be made after careful risk analysis.

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What will happen to Bitcoin in May

Our experts told us what factors affect the Bitcoin price. And what dynamics can be expected from it in May

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies historically have not maintained the classic “sell in may and go away” trend. Only four times in the last ten years has Bitcoin fallen in May. And the average decline has been lower than the increase in May of other years. This suggests that it is not statistically correct to expect cryptocurrency prices to fall in May. However, this does not mean that the market cannot decline.

At the beginning of the month, we are waiting for the Fed meeting, which will decide on the interest rate and further steps to change monetary policy (MP). Market expectations lay another 0.25% hike and a pause in rate hikes thereafter.

Some analysts believe the Fed could begin loosening monetary policy. Especially in view of recession risks and developing problems in the banking sector. At the same time, if by the results of the FRS meeting on May 3 the Open Market Committee will not designate the prospect of transition to easing of the monetary policy. It will create pressure on both stock markets and cryptocurrencies.

Our experts do not expect crypto-asset prices to rise significantly in May. And continue to wait for major bull events in the crypto market in the third and fourth quarters of this year. An ideal scenario in May would be Bitcoin’s correction to the $25K level. That decline would have provided an opportunity to enter the market at bargain prices in anticipation of further growth.

Fed plans could send signals to investors

The cryptocurrency market continues to be influenced by the dynamics of U.S. stock indices, the dollar index, the actions of the U.S. Federal Reserve. As well as news on the U.S. debt ceiling.

The volume of the U.S. national debt has already reached too much. And the issue of its repayment becomes more and more urgent. This could lead to a change in U.S. economic policy, including the Fed’s monetary policy.

The Fed meeting could be a key moment for the cryptocurrency market. As Jerome Powell’s speech will affect both the dollar exchange rate and the demand for cryptocurrencies. A rate hike, which is likely during the meeting, has already been factored in by the market. But further Fed plans could give new signals to investors. The trading price regime could be adjusted after Powell’s speech. And assessment of the latest news on US GDP and government debt. To account for changes in economic policy and make a decision to buy or sell cryptocurrency.

According to the latest CME Group data, there is an 82.8% chance of a rate hike to 5.25% at the May meeting. On April 27, the U.S. Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis released GDP data. The U.S. economy grew 1.1% year on year in the first quarter against the previous value of 2.6%. Economists had expected growth of 2.0%. The economic growth slowdown may change Jerome Powell’s rhetoric and the Fed will end its rate hike cycle at the June 14 meeting to prevent a recession.

BTC/USD is trading at $28+k. We might predict a trading price range of $26.5-31k for May. Our experts think that the price will stay in that range not only till the Fed meeting. But also for some time and will leave it after June 1, 2023. If suddenly the news background will form in such a way that the buyers will be able to pass the level of $31 th. Then there will be a level of $35k on horizon. Decrease in price below $26.5k will lead to Bitcoin falling to $25k.

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What will happen to Bitcoin price next after $30k

Our experts told about the prerequisites for Bitcoin price growth. And assessed the prospects for further price movement of the first cryptocurrency

On April 11 Bitcoin rate exceeded $30.3 thousand for the first time since June 1, 2022. Within a day, the first cryptocurrency rose in price by $2 thousand. And its value increased by 7%.

Leading altcoins also rose in price, though not as much as the first cryptocurrency. Ethereum (ETH) price went up by 3.5%, to $1.91, BNB (BNB) – by 4.6%, to $327, Polygon (MATIC) – by 3.2%, to $1.13. Cardano (ADA) gained 4.7% to $0.4 and Ripple (XRP) rose 2.7% to $0.51.

The first goal for Bictoin is to fix it at $30,000

Bitcoin for the first time in 10 months broke through the key level of $30 thousand. The main trigger for the price increase was the investors’ confidence in the near completion of the US Federal Reserve’s tight monetary policy phase. In fact, the strengthening of BTC could happen a few days earlier. But most investors were absent in trading because of Good Friday and Easter in Catholic world.

On Monday traders returned to work and reacted to Friday’s set of statistics about employment market in the USA. And quite naturally – with a rise in prices. NFP employment data showed that employers feel confident and leave hiring rates high.

BTC has gained 6.74% since the beginning of April versus a 23% appreciation in March. The important thing now is to get a foothold above $30k. And the next ambitious goal is $35k, but it will take time to reach it.

Bitcoin price prospects

Bitcoin moved to the growth after a long period of consolidation between $27 thousand and $28.5 thousand. BTC accumulated momentum and was able to overcome the resistance level around $28.5 thousand. And then on a wave of “bullish” sentiment took a new top – the long-awaited mark of $30 th.

It is hard to say whether there will be correction, because the market is waiting for the publication of data on consumer price growth in the USA (CPI). Which will be unveiled on April 12. This index always influences the situation on the cryptocurrency market. Here we should understand that it can both push up. And it can also push down and stop the growth of Bitcoin. And the continuation of high inflation can have both effects. That is, if inflation is still quite high and fails to meet expectations for a decline. BTC rate may react with both decrease and growth in the short term.

In the long term high inflation will most likely help Bitcoin to grow. Because BTC is seen by some investors as an instrument to hedge against inflation risks. The collapse of the banking system, which is not expected to fully manifest itself yet, also contributes to the growth of bitcoin. Part of the deposits that have been withdrawn from U.S. bank accounts. It eventually settles on the crypto market, as retail investors in a panic are looking for tools to preserve value. And they’re also afraid of a repeat of the 2008-2009 crisis.

Our experts answering a possible question whether investors will have an opportunity to buy Bitcoin “cheaply” for $15 thousand. Our experts remind that between $15k and $25k Bitcoin was trading for 275 days. That means investors had almost a year to decide to buy this asset. If they didn’t do that, now they’ll have to buy bitcoin at $30k. In short and medium term the price of BTC will hardly go lower than $20k.

Expect inflation data

Bitcoin for quite a long time was in the “sideways position”, accumulating strength for a breakthrough to the level of $30 thousand. This happens today the coin has overcome this mark.

Now the US inflation data is expected to be released in March. A slowdown in price growth will be positive for the stock market. And BTC usually follows it. A decline in inflation gives the odds that the Fed will move to easing monetary policy. And this will also push indices and cryptocurrencies up.

Also amid forecasts of a global recession, more and more investors are moving into crypto as a way to protect funds. This explains the influx of capital into the crypto market. Now everything depends on inflation data. Because its decline will give a chance for Bitcoin to rise to $32,000-34,000. And the increase in prices will be negative – then we can expect a fall to $27-28 thousand. By the end of the week, these trends will manifest themselves in full force.

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The excitement for risk has returned. What will happen to Bitcoin in this week

Our experts have analyzed the situation on crypto market and told how it can change in the short term and what will happen to Bitcoin price

The final week of March on the crypto market began with a decrease in the pair BTC/USDt. Bitcoin fell by 5.81% to $28,484. The fall was caused by negative news in the crypto industry. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed a lawsuit against the head of Binance, Changpeng Zhao, and the heads of three other organizations that run the Binance platform. The regulator claims that the exchange failed to register as a platform that trades cryptocurrency derivatives. And therefore had no right to provide services to U.S. clients. However, it actively worked with U.S. investors, ignoring legal regulations.

In zone $26.5-26.6 thousand buyers regrouped and fought back on the positive news from the banking sector and the rise of American indices. The U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) announced that deposits and loans from bankrupt Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) are going to U.S. First-Citizens Bank.

On March 29, bitcoin recouped earlier losses, returning to the $29,184 level. Risk appetite returned for market participants as concerns about the banking sector eased following congressional hearings on the SVB bankruptcy.

Rising movement did not continue. The buyers, having met sellers’ volumes, started to fix profits from long positions. It was a purely technical factor, because this day external background was on the side of buyers. Also the dollar index was declining and S&P 500 futures were rising.

In the evening the buyers’ activity might have been low because of the speeches of the U.S. Federal Reserve representatives, who supported the further tightening of the monetary policy, despite the collapse of the three American banks.

On Friday (March 31), the price corrected to $27,511 and then went back to $28,656. Buyers have so far ignored the U.S. crackdown on Binance, Coinbase and TRON founder Justin Sun. This comes amid a rally in stock indexes and weakness in the U.S. dollar.

The S&P 500 index rose 3.23% to 4,109 points for the week and 6.88% for the quarter. Bitcoin in the first quarter of 2023 rose 72.08% against the dollar to $28,465.

Waiting for a level test of $30,000 for Bitcoin

In this week of April 3-9, the focus of market participants will be on U.S. statistics. These statistics will include: business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors, industrial production data, the labor market report for March. In Europe, it is a shortened week. Europeans will celebrate Good Friday on Friday (April 7) and Easter on Monday (April 10). Liquidity will affect the dollar, and through the currency market, the crypto market.

According to our experts’ estimates, the quarterly timeframe indicates a price recovery to $34,000. At the same time, the monthly – to $43,000 by August (with a very positive external situation). If the market gets stormy because of the actions of U.S. regulators or new bankruptcies, then by mid-September. Here we need to look at what wave structure of upward movement will be formed when the level of $34,000 is reached. Therefore, we are waiting for the test of $30,000 for Bitcoin this week.

 

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Mining companies increased in price due to growth of Bitcoin rate

Growth in securities of mining companies in January reached the highest monthly level in at least a year. Crypto-Upvotes expert review

The MVIS Global Digital Assets Mining Index, which includes data on the 20 largest miners. Such as Riot Blockchain, Galaxy Digital, Bitfarms and Iris Energy, is up 64 percent since the beginning of January 2023. This month, the indicator posted its biggest increase since its inception in December 2021. In doing so, Bitfarms securities rose more than 140%. And shares of Marathon Digital Holdings were up more than 120%. And Hive Blockchain Technologies more than doubled.

The growth of miners’ shares was caused by the recovery of Bitcoin. The first cryptocurrency since the beginning of January rose in price by 26.5% – from $ 16.6 thousand to $ 21 thousand. And on January 16 Bitcoin rate updated its maximum for 4 months, exceeding the mark of $ 21.4 thousand.

Profits of miners also increased against the growth of the crypto market. Despite the fact that the complexity of Bitcoin mining has grown to record levels. And more and more miners are plugging in, increasing hash rates. Luxor Hashprice Index – showing how much income a Bitcoin miner can expect. With a certain amount of hashrate – up 21% this year.

However, our experts note that it is unknown how long the growth of mining companies’ quotes will last. Cryptocurrency mining companies faced financial difficulties in 2022 and were forced to sell the mined cryptocurrency. As well as to return the equipment, reduce costs and personnel.

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Bitcoin turned 14 years old. Crypto-Upvotes expert review

Satoshi Nakamoto mined a Bitcoin genesis block on January 3, 2009

Bitcoin turned 14 years old. January 3, 2009 can be considered the real birthday of Bitcoin. That’s when the genesis block was mined with the date and a short excerpt from The Times article: “The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks”.

On October 31, 2008, the creator of Bitcoin, known as Satoshi Nakamoto, published a white paper. Titled “Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System. However, the BTC network did not actually work until three months later, when Satoshi mined the first block.

The genesis block was mined on a small server in Helsinki. The reward for mining it was 50 BTC. The first transaction on the BTC network took place a few days later. On January 12, 2009, 10 BTC from Satoshi Nakamoto were sent to developer Hal Finney in Block 170.

Nine months later, on October 5, Bitcoin appeared on the New Liberty Standart exchange. Our experts note that for $ 1 you could buy 1,309 BTC (now their price is $21 million).

On February 9, 2011, BTC for the first time equaled in value to the U.S. dollar. And on April 16 of the same year a major publication – Time magazine published an article about Bitcoin, for the first time about the new asset. The currency reached a total capitalization of $10 million.

Since then, Bitcoin has experienced several ups and downs. It reached its peak in November 2021, rising to $69,000. In 2022, global economic problems and several major bankruptcies in the industry led to a significant decline in cryptocurrency rates and a prolonged crypto winter.

The asset currently has a market capitalization of $322 billion and a daily trading volume of $13 billion. Bitcoin’s stake in a crypto market is 38.2%.

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What will happen to Bitcoin in coming week, our expert review

Crypto-Upvotes experts analyzed the situation with Bitcoin on crypto market and told how it can change in the short term

From December 5 to 11, the pair BTC/USDT traded in the price range of $16.7 ths – $17.4 ths. In the first half of the week Bitcoin was under pressure, in the second it got out in a small plus. Because Bitcoin got back in touch with the stock and currency markets. It was influenced by the dynamics of stock indices and the dollar index.

On Monday, December 5, investors were spooked by better-than-expected data from the U.S. service sector. The statistics changed market sentiment of the market participants. Because they are still afraid of the Fed’s continued tight policy to curb inflation. As a result, the S&P500 index was unable to break through the trend line on the daily and weekly section. The downward correction intensified amid closing long positions in technology sector stocks. The dollar index recovered to 105.79 points. BTC/USDT pair returned to the level of $16.8 ths.

On Tuesday, December 6, Bitcoin rate consolidated at $17 ths. On December 7, the pair BTC/USDT fell to the trend line of $16.7 ths on the background of risk aversion. Since Thursday, December 8, the situation in the markets has changed. Bitcoin gained 2.30% against the dollar to $17.2 thousand. The dollar index reversed downward and the S&P500 index recovered to 3,974 points. That was the end of the index’s rise, as well as Bitcoin’s strengthening.

On Friday, December 9, the S&P500 index fell 0.73% to 3934.39 points. The sell-off in risky assets resumed after the release of disappointing U.S. producer price data for November. Prices rose more than forecasted. The PPI index in November rose by 7.4% on an annualized basis and by 0.3% versus October. The average forecast was for a 7.2% growth for the former index and a 0.2% growth for the latter.

Investors fear again

Fears of tighter monetary policy from the Fed and a possible recession came to the fore. U.S. stock futures changed from rising to falling, while Treasury yields jumped.

The statistics are rocking the markets ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s December 14 meeting. High volatility is needed for option sellers. To sell them at a high premium. Investors are expecting Wednesday’s rate hike of 50 basis points, to 4.5% per year. According to the latest CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 78.2% chance of a 50bp rate hike.

There is still uncertainty in the crypto market. The decline in the BTC/USDT pair on Friday was subdued. The level of $17.35K has not been passed, and the buyers can still pass it till Wednesday. The price pattern at 4H (time range on the chart) is favorable for an upward move.

Support is at the level of $16.9 ths, key – at $16.5 ths. We expect the denouement after the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell at the press conference, which will be held after the announcement of the rates decision.

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Investors are held back by fear. What will happen to BTC in coming days

Crypto-Upvotes experts explained reason of the last fall of BTC price. And told how it can change in coming days

Last week from November 21 to 27, BTC updated its yearly low. High volatility on crypto market was observed at the beginning of this week. Bitcoin sales intensified on news of the possible bankruptcy of Genesis. Which had $175 million hanging in the collapsed FXT exchange. The BTC/USDt pair was down to $15,400.

BTC price did not go lower. The sales were stopped by a representative of Genesis. He said that company continues to negotiate with creditors and does not plan to declare bankruptcy in the near future. The Wall Street Journal reported that billionaire Justin Sun is considering options for the acquisition of certain FTX assets. This news backdrop formed a nice session bullish trend on the intraday charts. Also, the cryptocurrency market received support from the weakening U.S. dollar in forex. As well as the growth of stock indices in the U.S. before the release of the minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on November 1-2. Bitcoin rose 8.6% to $16,800 in 53 hours.

Buyer activity was halted by news that Genesis had hired a restructuring consultant to explore all options, including bankruptcy.

On Thursday low activity on all world exchanges can be explained by day off in the USA. Markets in the States did not work because of the national Thanksgiving holiday. On Friday, trading was at the level of $16.5 thousand.

As long as there is no negative news, Bitcoin is trying to climb out of the hole Sam Bankman-Fried sent it into. Fear of a possible collapse is keeping investors from active action. Buyers need to pass $17.15k and $18.5k for the FTX exchange collapse to recede into the background.

No factors for BTC growth

After shocks associated with the collapse of FTX, the crypto market is frozen, waiting for new factors for movement. Most likely, there will be no strong changes. Bitcoin now trades at $16.2k, the same dynamics is expected in the next (range $16-16.5k). In the absence of negative news, of course, because there is no positive news to expect.

Level of $18.5k is the key resistance level. Its overcoming will open the way for buyers to $22.5k. Also it will allow many miners to accumulate BTC and not to sell at low prices. Sellers are still set to bring the market down to the $10-12k zone.

The most important event this week is the report on the US labor market in November. As the cryptocurrency market has decoupled from the S&P500. Then it can ignore the price swings of the dollar and the S&P500 after the report is published. If Bitcoin reacts to U.S. statistics. Then again we can look at correlation and stronger correlation with other risky assets.

There will likely be more reports of problems in the crypto industry this week. Even if not as significant and large as with FTX. For example, it is now known that the ecosystem of decentralized finance and stable dUSD coin Ardana. Which is based on the blockchain Cardano, has announced the suspension of project development. Because there is now uncertainty about the funding and timing of this project.

The next negative report is that cryptocurrency lender Matrixport is looking for $100 million in funding. Lead investors have already committed $50 million to the company, but the deal has not yet been finalized. As Matrixport needs to find those who will close the other half of volume.

Conclusion

There are no factors for growth of digital financial assets. Main thing is that there are no new ” Black Swans ” – poorly predictable negative events. In this case, Bitcoin will remain at the level of about $16.5k. However, if there are new reports about difficulties on cryptocurrencies, it can fall to $14-15k.

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Correction in Bitcoin rate due to risky assets is over ?

Our Crypto-Upvotes experts have analyzed situation on cryptocurrency market. And told how Bitcoin price can change in the next few days

Last week, from November 14 to 20, trading on the crypto market was relatively quiet. Increased volatility was observed on the first day of the week. Bitcoin/USDt jumped from $15.8 th. to $17.1 th. (+8.69%). Growth in quotations was caused by the head of Binance, Changpeng Zhao. He said he will launch a fund to rebuild the industry and help promising companies. He did so to reduce the negative impact from collapse of crypto exchange FTX.

After updating the weekly high price stabilized in the range of $16 thousand – $17 thousand Investors are in no hurry to buy Bitcoin because they took a wait-and-see attitude. Because of fears of the next wave of sales on the background of new bankruptcies of companies related to the collapsed exchange FTX.

For ten days, market is in the phase of rest after a recent collapse. Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P500 Index has turned negative at 0.62. Crypto market has stopped reacting to the dynamics of dollar and stock indices. Investors are busy transferring tokens from centralized exchanges to cold wallets. They are doing this to protect their cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin price is at $16,000 waiting for a new batch of news about crypto industry. As buyers have failed to quickly get the price back above $18,500. A level of $12k is still flashing green for sellers below, signaling a lack of resistance. Because of a collapse in FTX, events could begin to unfold in a worst case scenario for Bitcoin and crypto investors. Buyers need to consolidate above $18.5k. Without consolidation, bearish sentiment will not be offset.

There is a threat of new bankruptcies, and continued collapse of crypto market

So far, the ratio of long and short positions on futures market does not have any bias. Therefore, we do not expect a sharp change in the situation in the next few days.

On-chain parameters also speak in favor of absence of preconditions for fall. There is also growing interest in cold wallets, amid outflow of capital from CEX exchanges because of scandal with FTX.

Most likely scenario is a continuation of current levels. Accordingly, expected range of BTC price is about $16-17 thousand.

Among stability risks, there is a threat of new bankruptcies followed by an avalanche of liquidations. There are no guarantees that it will not happen this week. But the probability is not high either. And statements of major players about creation of crypto-business support funds to prevent exactly such chain reactions in the market. Should add optimism and confidence in protection of crypto industry from collapse.

Of important – it is worth to highlight protocol of November meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which will be published on November 23. Bitcoin is detached from risky assets, so it may ignore investors’ reaction to the publication of these protocols.

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What will happen to Bitcoin “There are no prerequisites for recovery ?”

Our Crypto-Upvotes experts told us what dynamics to expect from Bitcoin and digital currency market in short term

On November 14, Bitcoin exchange rate is about $16.5 thousand. During the last week, it fell by more than 20%. Our experts have analyzed this situation on crypto market and told what kind of dynamics to expect in next week.

Any negative news will bring down crypto market

The second week of November reversed all the achievements of buyers since mid-September. The collapse of the crypto market occurred due to the fiasco of negotiations between the head of Binance Changpeng Zhao and the head of FTX Sam Bankman-Fried.

Changpeng Zhao caused a liquidity crisis at the FTX exchange on Monday with his announcement that he would sell FTT tokens. As it turned out, most of the assets of FTX-affiliated company Alameda ($14.6 billion) were FTT tokens.

The Binance CEO wiped out a huge competitor in a matter of days. There is an opinion that he intentionally made public statements about selling FTT. The collapse in crypto market was partly localized by U.S. statistics on Thursday. Slowing inflation in the U.S. collapsed the dollar and boosted demand for risky assets. Traders sold off the U.S. currency on expectations of a slowdown in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hike cycle. The BTC/USDt pair jumped 16% to $18,200.

Although Dollar Index continued to fall on Friday, cryptocurrency halted its rise. Sam Benkman-Fried undermined confidence in the crypto industry. Investors fear the collapse of other cryptocurrencies that have had liquidity problems because of FTX. We just don’t know about it yet. Alameda may be “dumping” its portfolio on the market to take advantage of a price rebound.

The inflation report temporarily diverted investors’ attention away from FTX problems. Although situation in market remains tense. After a collapse and rebound, Bitcoin/USDt is trading at $16,400 in the range of $15,600-$18,200. Shock has passed, but buyer activity is very low. Without new negative news, the continuation of the correction above $18.5k remains. In such conditions, it will be a feat for the buyers. According to our experts, the risks of Bitcoin decline to $12,000 are over 70%. The market is low-liquid, so any bad news on the collapse of some other exchange with its token will collapse crypto market within a day.

Prospects for Bitcoin to rise to $20,000 in coming week

Unfortunately, our experts do not see prerequisites for Bitcoin recovery even up to $20K. All that positive impulse, which the market got after the data about growth of consumption prices in the USA. But crisis around FTX, which is still in its acute phase and just started to develop, didn’t let BTC grow and it fell below $17K again.

This week market will wait for developments around FTX. And the details of the debts of Alameda and FTX. As well as possible solutions to the problem of repayment of debts to clients. Regulators will definitely take action, because many companies related to the American market, Galaxy Digital and Circle, have been affected.

It’s not yet completely clear how catastrophic the collapse of Alameda would be for those companies that Sam Bankman-Fried was actively rescuing in recent months. Rumors have surfaced about Alameda’s liabilities of up to $50 billion. This could be a real counterpart to a collapse of Lehman Brothers for crypto market.

Our forecast for BTC this week is that it might fall to $14-15K and it will hardly go lower because, judging by Order Book, there are huge buy orders. So even if Bitcoin falls below that level, it will be bought back immediately.

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