Our experts told us what factors affect the Bitcoin price. And what dynamics can be expected from it in May

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies historically have not maintained the classic “sell in may and go away” trend. Only four times in the last ten years has Bitcoin fallen in May. And the average decline has been lower than the increase in May of other years. This suggests that it is not statistically correct to expect cryptocurrency prices to fall in May. However, this does not mean that the market cannot decline.

At the beginning of the month, we are waiting for the Fed meeting, which will decide on the interest rate and further steps to change monetary policy (MP). Market expectations lay another 0.25% hike and a pause in rate hikes thereafter.

Some analysts believe the Fed could begin loosening monetary policy. Especially in view of recession risks and developing problems in the banking sector. At the same time, if by the results of the FRS meeting on May 3 the Open Market Committee will not designate the prospect of transition to easing of the monetary policy. It will create pressure on both stock markets and cryptocurrencies.

Our experts do not expect crypto-asset prices to rise significantly in May. And continue to wait for major bull events in the crypto market in the third and fourth quarters of this year. An ideal scenario in May would be Bitcoin’s correction to the $25K level. That decline would have provided an opportunity to enter the market at bargain prices in anticipation of further growth.

Fed plans could send signals to investors

The cryptocurrency market continues to be influenced by the dynamics of U.S. stock indices, the dollar index, the actions of the U.S. Federal Reserve. As well as news on the U.S. debt ceiling.

The volume of the U.S. national debt has already reached too much. And the issue of its repayment becomes more and more urgent. This could lead to a change in U.S. economic policy, including the Fed’s monetary policy.

The Fed meeting could be a key moment for the cryptocurrency market. As Jerome Powell’s speech will affect both the dollar exchange rate and the demand for cryptocurrencies. A rate hike, which is likely during the meeting, has already been factored in by the market. But further Fed plans could give new signals to investors. The trading price regime could be adjusted after Powell’s speech. And assessment of the latest news on US GDP and government debt. To account for changes in economic policy and make a decision to buy or sell cryptocurrency.

According to the latest CME Group data, there is an 82.8% chance of a rate hike to 5.25% at the May meeting. On April 27, the U.S. Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis released GDP data. The U.S. economy grew 1.1% year on year in the first quarter against the previous value of 2.6%. Economists had expected growth of 2.0%. The economic growth slowdown may change Jerome Powell’s rhetoric and the Fed will end its rate hike cycle at the June 14 meeting to prevent a recession.

BTC/USD is trading at $28+k. We might predict a trading price range of $26.5-31k for May. Our experts think that the price will stay in that range not only till the Fed meeting. But also for some time and will leave it after June 1, 2023. If suddenly the news background will form in such a way that the buyers will be able to pass the level of $31 th. Then there will be a level of $35k on horizon. Decrease in price below $26.5k will lead to Bitcoin falling to $25k.

Our experts explained why the market is reacting to rumors about the sale of Bitcoin by the bankrupt Mt.Gox exchange. And how it could actually affect the price of the cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin dropped sharply by 8% on rumors that wallets holding Mt.Gox coins were making transactions. It quickly became clear that the information was caused by a technical error. But this incident clearly demonstrated the market reaction to the possible sale of thousands of coins of the bankrupt exchange.

Mt.Gox was one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges in the world. It operated from 2010 until it declared bankruptcy in 2014 after a series of hacks. At its peak, Mt.Gox accounted for about 70% of total Bitcoin trading volume. The 2014 hack resulted in 850,000 bitcoins stolen from Mt. Gox, worth $17.8 billion at current exchange rates.

The bankruptcy of the exchange led to a 7.5-year legal battle. Before a solution in the form of a plan to rehabilitate the affected users was developed in 2021. Since not all of the stolen coins could be recovered. They will be compensated only a part of the original amount – about 200 thousand BTC. The deadline for payment is set for September 30. $1.7 billion, 141 thousand BTC and 142 thousand more Bitcoin Cash (BCH) coins will be distributed under the civil recovery plan. Which is designed for 10,000 customers worldwide.

In the afternoon of April 26 bitcoin rate exceeded $30 thousand. However, in the evening the value of the asset began to decline sharply and fell to $27.6 thousand. By the morning of April 27, the price of the asset has recovered to $29 thousand. In the cryptocommunity bitcoin decline was associated with rumors of bitcoin sales Mt.Gox.

However, later analytics platform Arkham Intelligence. which initially sent out such warnings, reported that the data had been misinterpreted.

“Mt. Gox Bitcoins” have been a hot topic for retail traders for years

This is largely due to the fact that trading robots react to headlines of this kind. As the April 26 incident showed, the mere mention of an exchange’s name is enough for the market to react. In this case, even if the assets are not directly related to the wallets where Bitcoins of hacked users are actually stored.

The system of payments is “rather confusing”, and does not provide some kind of one-time payment to all victims. In addition, it may be profitable for the fund manager to delay the process. At the same time making sure that the payment of compensation does not happen quickly and at one time.

Some of the affected users have chosen compensation in cryptocurrency. And the other part of them chose to receive a bank transfer at a rate several times lower than the current market rate. Some chose to get a smaller amount at an early date. And others chose to get a larger amount within a few years, and so on. Thus, it is impossible that the entire mentioned amount of 140 thousand BTC will somehow be sold at one time on the exchange, our experts explain.

Payments to affected users

In February 2014, when Mt.Gox went bankrupt, Bitcoin was trading at about $550. Given the payouts at the current rate, customers could theoretically get their coins back at a high profit. But given that the affected users will receive payouts in installments. How they will use them is a big question. It is not the fact that they will decide to sell them at once. And not to take advantage of the OTC-platforms without affecting the open market.

Fears about selling cryptocurrency confiscated by the U.S. government should be perceived in the same way. Such coins are sold at auctions. And, as a rule, afterwards, they do not go directly to the exchange glass. For the amounts of such an order and there is a market OTC, explains our expert.

The first official buyer of confiscated Bitcoins is investor Tim Draper. In 2015, he managed to win an auction to distribute Bitcoins to Silk Road, the first ever illegal online marketplace. Draper has never disclosed at what rate he got the coins. He is an outspoken supporter of cryptocurrencies and predicts the first cryptocurrency will rise to the $250,000 mark in 2024.

The collapse of a major crypto exchange FTX cleared the market of “toxic leverage” and showed investors the importance of self-storage of digital assets

Analysts at investment firm Bernstein believe that the collapse of FTX was the catalyst for a new bullish cycle in cryptocurrency markets, CoinDesk reported, citing a report from their company. The collapse of a major crypto exchange cleared the market of “toxic leverage.” And showed crypto investors the importance of decentralization and self-storage of digital assets.

Macroeconomic factors are supporting Bitcoin. Such as the weakness of regional U.S. banks and the continued outflow of deposits to money market funds. And the “big four” U.S. banks (Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase) reflect investor concerns about the “centralization of money,” according to Bernstein.

“Any potential shocks, in the credit sector or from the government <…> make Bitcoin an ideal safe haven asset alongside gold,” the analysts wrote.

Since the beginning of the year Bitcoin’s rate grew more than 80% – from $16.5 thousand to $29.8 thousand only in March on the background of bankruptcies of American banks (Silvergate Bank, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank) price of the first cryptocurrency grew from $23 thousand to $28 thousand.

Bernstein’s experts also pointed out that fees on the Ethereum network tripled after the FTX collapse. Which reflects the growth of user activity and interest in the asset itself. Ethereum has risen 75% since the beginning of the year, from $1,200 to $2,100.

Our experts note that at the end of March, analysts Bernstein noted that now there are “ideal conditions” for the growth of the crypto market. Problems in the U.S. banking sector could lead to a decentralized financial system as an alternative to traditional banks.

Crypto Upvotes experts analyzed the situation in the Crypto market. And told how it can change in the short term, as well as what will happen to Bitcoin price

Last week was a hot one. Bitcoin rose in price by 7.63%, but this is no reason to panic. The growth of quotations began in the evening of April 9. Since the new week, purchases of the first cryptocurrency intensified amid the growth of U.S. stock indices. After the end of the holiday in the U.S. and strong Friday employment data. Investors raised the probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike in May by 25 basis points.

Since this pace of rate hikes has been factored in by the markets. Then buyers went on the offensive after a prolonged sideways trend. At first they took the level of $29,380, and on April 12 they tested the psychological level of $30,000. The price went up to $30,550.

The locomotive for the whole market was Ethereum (ETH). On the night of April 12-13, the Shapella update was successfully activated on the main Ethereum network, after which it became possible to withdraw blocked tokens from staking. There was no reaction to the network update. Apparently, investors wanted to see how staking would behave after coins were withdrawn. The effect was delayed. The Shapella update boosted trading volumes and supported the bullish trend of the major altcoins. The ETH/USDt pair was up to $2,128.

On April 12, the U.S. Labor Department released its inflation report. The consumer price index rose 0.1% month-on-month and 5% year-on-year. Although, of course, everyone was expecting inflation to match the 0.2% m/m and 5.2% y/y forecasts. The inflation report couldn’t stop Bitcoin’s rise. That’s because the rise was supported by the Ethereum rally. And then the dollar also fell to 101.16p after rising.

On April 14, the pair BTC/USDt was rising to the level of $31,000. It was not possible to move higher – the dollar turned up and the indices went down. The dollar rose at the end of the week on strong industrial production data, which rose 0.4% in March after rising 0.2% the previous month (the forecast was +0.2%).

Cryptocurrencies have gained a trump card.

By the end of the day U.S. stocks closed the day down. But they recorded weekly gains across the board. Investors appreciated the weak retail sales report. Which undermined the enthusiasm about the start of the quarterly reporting season.

Cryptocurrencies have gained a trump card. Democrats and Republicans continue to play the political game of who will do more damage to the United States. Congressmen are haggling and the Treasury Department is paying higher interest on debt service.

Democrats and Republicans continue to play a political game of who will do more damage to the United States. Congressmen are haggling and the Treasury Department is paying higher interest on debt service.

On April 11, the cost of U.S. default insurance jumped to the highest level in a decade. Default insurance on 5-year U.S. bonds rose to 42.91p.

In 2022, the U.S. paid $853 billion in interest on its government debt. This year, the amount of interest payments on government debt could reach $1.2 trillion to $1.5 trillion. Yellen warned that the government has enough money until June. The country could face default in July or August. Right now, it doesn’t matter if there is a default or not. Bitcoin and gold could act as protective assets against it. Gold in physical form and Bitcoin in digital form.

The technical picture for Bitcoin is favorable for continued upward movement. Now we can head to the area of $34-35 thousand. For ETH the nearest target is around $2,770.

Our experts told about the prerequisites for Bitcoin price growth. And assessed the prospects for further price movement of the first cryptocurrency

On April 11 Bitcoin rate exceeded $30.3 thousand for the first time since June 1, 2022. Within a day, the first cryptocurrency rose in price by $2 thousand. And its value increased by 7%.

Leading altcoins also rose in price, though not as much as the first cryptocurrency. Ethereum (ETH) price went up by 3.5%, to $1.91, BNB (BNB) – by 4.6%, to $327, Polygon (MATIC) – by 3.2%, to $1.13. Cardano (ADA) gained 4.7% to $0.4 and Ripple (XRP) rose 2.7% to $0.51.

The first goal for Bictoin is to fix it at $30,000

Bitcoin for the first time in 10 months broke through the key level of $30 thousand. The main trigger for the price increase was the investors’ confidence in the near completion of the US Federal Reserve’s tight monetary policy phase. In fact, the strengthening of BTC could happen a few days earlier. But most investors were absent in trading because of Good Friday and Easter in Catholic world.

On Monday traders returned to work and reacted to Friday’s set of statistics about employment market in the USA. And quite naturally – with a rise in prices. NFP employment data showed that employers feel confident and leave hiring rates high.

BTC has gained 6.74% since the beginning of April versus a 23% appreciation in March. The important thing now is to get a foothold above $30k. And the next ambitious goal is $35k, but it will take time to reach it.

Bitcoin price prospects

Bitcoin moved to the growth after a long period of consolidation between $27 thousand and $28.5 thousand. BTC accumulated momentum and was able to overcome the resistance level around $28.5 thousand. And then on a wave of “bullish” sentiment took a new top – the long-awaited mark of $30 th.

It is hard to say whether there will be correction, because the market is waiting for the publication of data on consumer price growth in the USA (CPI). Which will be unveiled on April 12. This index always influences the situation on the cryptocurrency market. Here we should understand that it can both push up. And it can also push down and stop the growth of Bitcoin. And the continuation of high inflation can have both effects. That is, if inflation is still quite high and fails to meet expectations for a decline. BTC rate may react with both decrease and growth in the short term.

In the long term high inflation will most likely help Bitcoin to grow. Because BTC is seen by some investors as an instrument to hedge against inflation risks. The collapse of the banking system, which is not expected to fully manifest itself yet, also contributes to the growth of bitcoin. Part of the deposits that have been withdrawn from U.S. bank accounts. It eventually settles on the crypto market, as retail investors in a panic are looking for tools to preserve value. And they’re also afraid of a repeat of the 2008-2009 crisis.

Our experts answering a possible question whether investors will have an opportunity to buy Bitcoin “cheaply” for $15 thousand. Our experts remind that between $15k and $25k Bitcoin was trading for 275 days. That means investors had almost a year to decide to buy this asset. If they didn’t do that, now they’ll have to buy bitcoin at $30k. In short and medium term the price of BTC will hardly go lower than $20k.

Expect inflation data

Bitcoin for quite a long time was in the “sideways position”, accumulating strength for a breakthrough to the level of $30 thousand. This happens today the coin has overcome this mark.

Now the US inflation data is expected to be released in March. A slowdown in price growth will be positive for the stock market. And BTC usually follows it. A decline in inflation gives the odds that the Fed will move to easing monetary policy. And this will also push indices and cryptocurrencies up.

Also amid forecasts of a global recession, more and more investors are moving into crypto as a way to protect funds. This explains the influx of capital into the crypto market. Now everything depends on inflation data. Because its decline will give a chance for Bitcoin to rise to $32,000-34,000. And the increase in prices will be negative – then we can expect a fall to $27-28 thousand. By the end of the week, these trends will manifest themselves in full force.

The number of BTC “hodlers” is increasing as fast as it did in the spring of 2021. When the asset first reached $64,000.

The number of long-term Bitcoin holders earlier this year is growing at its fastest pace since spring 2021. When the BTC exchange rate first rose to $64,000. The growth in the number of “hodlers” may be due to the fact that more and more traders stop operations and decide to just keep the asset.

Since the beginning of this year, Bitcoin’s exchange rate has increased by 71%. The asset was trading at $16.5 thousand on January 31, while on April 10, its price was around $28.3 thousand. The maximum value for this period was $29.1 thousand, which BTC crossed on March 30 for the first time since June 2022.

During the 2021 Bitcoin rally, the number of BTC holders rose from about 34 million to 39 million. The growth rate then slowed. And by early 2023, that number had risen to about 44 million. But then the number of “hodlers” started growing faster again. And by April, it exceeded 46.1 million.

Our experts note that over the past 24 hours, BTC rose in price  by 6%, to $30 thousand. Following the first cryptocurrency, prices for other digital assets are increasing.

PostFinance, Swiss national postal service’s bank division, will give customers access to buy, hold and sell Bitcoin and Ethereum

PostFinance, the Swiss post office bank, will partner with Sygnum Bank, a Swiss digital asset bank, to open up cryptocurrency transactions to more than 2.5 million customers. The cryptobank said in an announcement that PostFinance customers will be able to buy, store and sell cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin and Ethereum.

PostFinance is one of Switzerland’s largest retail banks. It is wholly owned by the Swiss Post, which in turn is owned by the state. According to the bank’s website, more than 2.5 million people use its services.

Bank Sygnum is licensed as a provider of cryptocurrency services in Switzerland. And it serves a range of institutions, including cantonal and private banks. PostFinance is integrating Sygnum’s b2b platform into its infrastructure.

According to the report, PostFinance has analyzed the investment needs of its customers. And it identified a high demand for digital investment services.

“Digital assets have become an integral part of the financial world. And our clients want access to this marketplace at PostFinance,” said PostFinance Chief Investment Officer Philip Merkt.

PostFinance’s decision to switch to cryptocurrency was driven in part by an outflow of funds from Swiss retail banks into the digital asset class.

PostFinance has noted a multi-million dollar outflow of funds to cryptocurrency exchanges in recent years. So not only did the bank see an opportunity to generate new revenue in its work with digital assets. But it also realized that it made a big difference in retaining existing customers.

Our experts note that in addition to Bitcoin and Ethereum, PostFinance will later add other cryptocurrencies.

Our experts have analyzed the situation on crypto market and told how it can change in the short term and what will happen to Bitcoin price

The final week of March on the crypto market began with a decrease in the pair BTC/USDt. Bitcoin fell by 5.81% to $28,484. The fall was caused by negative news in the crypto industry. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed a lawsuit against the head of Binance, Changpeng Zhao, and the heads of three other organizations that run the Binance platform. The regulator claims that the exchange failed to register as a platform that trades cryptocurrency derivatives. And therefore had no right to provide services to U.S. clients. However, it actively worked with U.S. investors, ignoring legal regulations.

In zone $26.5-26.6 thousand buyers regrouped and fought back on the positive news from the banking sector and the rise of American indices. The U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) announced that deposits and loans from bankrupt Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) are going to U.S. First-Citizens Bank.

On March 29, bitcoin recouped earlier losses, returning to the $29,184 level. Risk appetite returned for market participants as concerns about the banking sector eased following congressional hearings on the SVB bankruptcy.

Rising movement did not continue. The buyers, having met sellers’ volumes, started to fix profits from long positions. It was a purely technical factor, because this day external background was on the side of buyers. Also the dollar index was declining and S&P 500 futures were rising.

In the evening the buyers’ activity might have been low because of the speeches of the U.S. Federal Reserve representatives, who supported the further tightening of the monetary policy, despite the collapse of the three American banks.

On Friday (March 31), the price corrected to $27,511 and then went back to $28,656. Buyers have so far ignored the U.S. crackdown on Binance, Coinbase and TRON founder Justin Sun. This comes amid a rally in stock indexes and weakness in the U.S. dollar.

The S&P 500 index rose 3.23% to 4,109 points for the week and 6.88% for the quarter. Bitcoin in the first quarter of 2023 rose 72.08% against the dollar to $28,465.

Waiting for a level test of $30,000 for Bitcoin

In this week of April 3-9, the focus of market participants will be on U.S. statistics. These statistics will include: business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors, industrial production data, the labor market report for March. In Europe, it is a shortened week. Europeans will celebrate Good Friday on Friday (April 7) and Easter on Monday (April 10). Liquidity will affect the dollar, and through the currency market, the crypto market.

According to our experts’ estimates, the quarterly timeframe indicates a price recovery to $34,000. At the same time, the monthly – to $43,000 by August (with a very positive external situation). If the market gets stormy because of the actions of U.S. regulators or new bankruptcies, then by mid-September. Here we need to look at what wave structure of upward movement will be formed when the level of $34,000 is reached. Therefore, we are waiting for the test of $30,000 for Bitcoin this week.

Our experts explained how a private miner managed to get a reward for the found block. With hardly noticeable computing power he was able to get 6 BTC

A lucky private miner, with barely a fraction of the processing power in the Bitcoin network. He received a reward of 6.35 BTC for finding a block numbered 772,793.

The chances of adding a block as a single miner are determined by the number of hashes. Which the miner device calculates per second. Relative to the total number of hashes that all the machines on the network compute each second.

Typically, blocks are mined by large pools combining the power of thousands of devices participating in a pool of users. The largest of them are Foundry, AntPool and Exchange of Binance’s own pool.

At the time the block was added to blockchain, the total bitcoin hashrate was just over 269 EH/s. That is, a single miner’s hash rate of 10 TH/s was only 0.000000037% of the total computing power of that network.

Chance of getting such a reward is like a big win in a lottery

Our experts say that this is an extremely atypical case. One miner privately can work for 30 years and not pick up the right hash during this time. At the same time he will consume electricity and produce a resource of equipment. The risks of finding nothing and making a loss are much greater.

It’s like buying a lottery ticket. You can buy one ticket every day and not get a win. Or you can buy one single time and win, but the chances are slim. If you approach mining as a business, it is more pragmatic to get a more modest but guaranteed income every day.

Now hashrate of network is 283 million TH/s against 10,6 TH/s capacity of unknown miner. In theory, with such parameters of the equipment it should mine one block out of almost 27 thousand mined blocks. Considering that about 900 BTC are mined per day, that’s about one block in 81 years.

Solo mining can be used when mining new coins, where the network capacity is quite low. And one person’s equipment takes a noticeable share of the entire processing power of the network. With pools, the probability of receiving remuneration increases many times over. But the user receives only a share of the reward, proportionally calculated from the entire computing power of the pool.

Bitcointalk forum users, discussing the lucky miner. came to the conclusion that his setup consisted of four rudimentary USB miners, each of which produced no more than 3 TH/s and cost about $200.

Our experts congratulate this guy, but remind us that it was a lucky lottery ticket.

Growth in securities of mining companies in January reached the highest monthly level in at least a year. Crypto-Upvotes expert review

The MVIS Global Digital Assets Mining Index, which includes data on the 20 largest miners. Such as Riot Blockchain, Galaxy Digital, Bitfarms and Iris Energy, is up 64 percent since the beginning of January 2023. This month, the indicator posted its biggest increase since its inception in December 2021. In doing so, Bitfarms securities rose more than 140%. And shares of Marathon Digital Holdings were up more than 120%. And Hive Blockchain Technologies more than doubled.

The growth of miners’ shares was caused by the recovery of Bitcoin. The first cryptocurrency since the beginning of January rose in price by 26.5% – from $ 16.6 thousand to $ 21 thousand. And on January 16 Bitcoin rate updated its maximum for 4 months, exceeding the mark of $ 21.4 thousand.

Profits of miners also increased against the growth of the crypto market. Despite the fact that the complexity of Bitcoin mining has grown to record levels. And more and more miners are plugging in, increasing hash rates. Luxor Hashprice Index – showing how much income a Bitcoin miner can expect. With a certain amount of hashrate – up 21% this year.

However, our experts note that it is unknown how long the growth of mining companies’ quotes will last. Cryptocurrency mining companies faced financial difficulties in 2022 and were forced to sell the mined cryptocurrency. As well as to return the equipment, reduce costs and personnel.