BlackRock made a concession to the SEC and updated its bitcoin-ETF application

The BlackRock proposal now includes a mechanism for redeeming units for fiat money. This is a redemption model that the SEC considers safer for investors compared to redemption in BTC

BlackRock has updated its application for a spot bitcoin-ETF to increase the chances of its approval by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The management company’s proposal now calls for a fiat money redemption mechanism for the fund’s units. This is the model favored by the U.S. regulator.

The world’s largest asset management company has become the latest of several firms. Which updated statements amid rumors that the SEC may approve a number of bitcoin-ETF applications as early as January. ARK Investments also previously made similar changes to its application for the ARK 21SHARES Bitcoin ETF.

BlackRock applied to launch the iShares Bitcoin Trust exchange-traded fund in June this year. And at the same time offering a redemption model in kind (in bitcoins). However, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, analyzed the proposal. And raised concerns about investor safety and market manipulation.

ETFs typically have one of two types of redemption and issuance mechanisms: in-kind or cash. In-kind redemption structure. And which many companies believe is more attractive to investors, allows companies to redeem units for bitcoins. The SEC considers it safer and more affordable to redeem for fiat money.

In this case, if an investor wants to redeem the fund’s units, BlackRock would have to withdraw the bitcoins from the vault. And sell them and pay the investor the required amount in fiat money.

“The trust issues and redeems blocks of 40,000 units on an ongoing basis. These transactions will be done in exchange for cash. Subject to regulatory approval, these transactions will also be able to be conducted in exchange for bitcoins,” BlackRock said in its new filing.

The company also provided a ticker symbol for the fund to be created in the documents. The spot bitcoin-ETF is expected to trade on NASDAQ under the name IBIT.

Valkyrie, Fidelity Investments, ARK Investments, Grayscale, WisdomTree and Invesco are also awaiting approval from the SEC.

Bitcoin-ETF issuers have already advanced to key details in their negotiations with the SEC. Our experts note that the deadline for the regulator to decide whether to approve, reject or postpone a decision on bitcoin-ETF applications is set for mid-January.

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The market could be feverish. What will happen to bitcoin this week

Our weekly feature on Bitcoin. Our experts analyzed the market situation and told how it may change this week

The week that ended on December 10 was a good week for bitcoin. And for investors who prefer long positions, it was extremely favorable. At the beginning of the week bitcoin crossed the $40 thousand mark and, apparently, managed to accumulate strength and consolidate above this level. By the weekend bitcoin came close to the next psychological boundary of $45 thousand, but the growth rate slowed down. Bitcoin will have to force this mark during the week of December 11-17. According to many prerequisites, the first cryptocurrency will manage to do it and get a foothold above $45 thousand.

The main factors in the growth of the crypto market remain expectations that the SEC will soon approve the launch of bitcoin-ETF. And flows of institutional capital will flow into cryptocurrency.

The state of the U.S. economy also gives a strong impetus to the crypto market. Namely, the expectation of a slowdown in inflation in the United States and the beginning of the period of reduction of the key rate by the Federal Reserve Service (FRS). At first glance, the positive dynamics in the Fed’s fight against inflation entails risks of recession in the U.S. economy. A recession along with inflation above the 2% target threatens investors with asset depreciation. This encourages them to hedge risks and move some capital into protective assets. For example, gold, which has shown growth in recent weeks. Or cryptocurrencies, which, although highly volatile, can give a high ROI (return on investment).

Main events of this week

This week, the main attention of cryptocurrency market participants, as well as the stock market, will be focused on the key events of the U.S. economy.

On December 12, the U.S. Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics will release data on inflation in November 2023. The US CPI is expected to rise slightly from October’s level. But the Core CPI (Core CPI), which reveals the trend of hidden inflation. On the contrary, it will slow down year-on-year. The PPI and retail sales data will also be important for the market.

But the main event of the week will undoubtedly be the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve on December 12-13 on the key rate. And the following press conference of the Fed’s head Jerome Powell. Market participants do not expect the key rate to change. But high hopes are pinned on Powell’s speech: they are waiting for him to signal the US Fed’s readiness to start reducing the key rate in 2024. And that should stimulate economic growth and investors’ interest in risky assets, which include cryptocurrencies.

The crypto market may be feverish

In the first half of the week, we can expect high bitcoin volatility on the back of the Fed meeting and the publication of inflation data. The crypto market can be feverish – from sharp rises on expectations of the Fed’s decision to a sudden correction right after Powell’s speech. Support levels for bitcoin will be $41-42 thousand, and resistance – $48 thousand.

By the end of the week bitcoin will show how strong the bulls are in the crypto market. And whether they will be able to gather their strength to confidently consolidate above $45 thousand. Given that the deadline for the publication of the SEC decision on applications for the launch of bitcoin – ETF is in early January 2024. It can be expected that in the next month, the upward trend in the cryptocurrency market will continue. Our experts note that while crypto market participants have not received a final answer to the ETF question, they will continue to hope for a quick launch of the exchange traded fund. And their hopes will serve as a basis for the growth of bitcoin price.

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Bitcoin has again updated annual maximum. Why the rate is growing and what will happen next

Bitcoin rate for the first time since the spring of 2022 reached $42 thousand. Our experts told ” about the factors affecting its growth, and the future prospects of cryptomarket

On Monday, December 4, bitcoin (BTC) crossed the $42,000 mark, rising more than 11% overnight and renewing the annual high set earlier. The last time bitcoin traded above $42,000 was in April 2022. And before the collapse of the Terra ecosystem triggered a massive collapse of the cryptomarket.

Bitcoin began its rapid growth in mid-October amid news about the possible approval by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the first spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) for bitcoin. In less than a month, the rate of the first cryptocurrency rose by almost $10 thousand.

Several major investment firms, including BlackRock and Fidelity Investments, are now awaiting SEC approval of their own bitcoin ETFs. The launch of such ETFs is considered by the crypto community to be the catalyst for a new bull cycle in the market. BlackRock alone has assets under management totaling about $9 trillion. According to an estimate by the analytical company Chainalysis, North America is the largest cryptocurrency market, with an annual turnover of about $1.2 trillion.

A few fundamental reasons for the rise of BTC

There are several fundamental reasons for the current growth of bitcoin: firstly, market participants are pricing in a ceiling on monetary tightening. And that can be clearly seen in the significant rise in US stock markets and bond values. If [global] central banks, such as the Fed, have completed tightening. Then in the future, fresh liquidity could come to many markets, including cryptocurrencies.

Second, expectations of spot ETF launches are still having a bullish impact. As investors reasonably expect the number and volume of institutional investors in cryptocurrency to increase after the approval and launch of bitcoin ETFs.

Third, from a cyclical perspective, the fourth quarter is a historically successful quarter for the cryptocurrency market. And the cyclicality continues this year, allowing investors to expect a positive year-end close.

Bitcoin has features of both gold and stocks

The bitcoin price is being pushed up by the same factors that contribute to the growth of gold. This is a decline in inflation rates and fears of recession in the U.S. economy. As well as the cheapening dollar and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

These factors are driving stock markets higher, as well as shifting some capital into safe haven assets like gold. Bitcoin has features of both gold and stocks, so investors are eager to include it in their investment portfolios for diversification. And to hedge the risks associated with depreciation and a possible recession.

In addition, the crypto market is expecting a soon approval of the bitcoin-ETF by the SEC and a new bull cycle, which traditionally accompanies the halving of the bitcoin network.

In the next month we can expect bitcoin to force the level of $45 thousand. Bitcoin growth will push altcoins as well. Ethereum (ETH), for example, has a chance to rise to $2350 by the end of December.

Whether cryptocurrencies will be able to gain a foothold above these levels depends largely on what decision on ETFs will be made by the SEC in January. When the deadline to publish the final decision on several applications approaches. If the decision is positive, it will serve as a strong trigger for further growth. If it is negative, we can expect a pullback to the values of late November.

Our experts note that we should not forget about the approaching halving. Its effect will support bitcoin and is unlikely to let it go below $38 thousand even if regulators refuse to approve bitcoin-ETF in the United States.

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Bitcoin hits 2023 high. What will happen to cryptocurrencies in December

Our experts analyzed the state of the market and talked about how bitcoin will behave in December 2023

In November, bitcoin rose by 11% against the dollar. The main driver of the upward dynamics was positive expectations of the soon approval of the spot bitcoin-ETF by the US financial regulator. Additional support for the crypto market was provided by the weakening of the dollar. And the growth of stock indices in the U.S. in anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve rate at the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on December 13.

In the market remains positive mood of market participants. The technical picture on the daily timeframe is also favorable for the continuation of the upward movement of the pair BTC/USD in the medium term before halving.

Halving is a planned reduction in the number of newly issued bitcoins (BTC). Which are created and distributed to miners who perform verification and validation of transactions on the network. This is embedded in the bitcoin program code to ensure that the total number of coins on the network never exceeds 21 million units. The next bitcoin halving is expected in April 2024.

Important events that the markets will focus on include U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth data for the last quarter and personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price information for the third quarter. The market is actively watching inflation as it is linked to expectations of further decisions by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

We expect bullish dynamics

The digital asset market has historically tended to rise in December. Given fundamental factors. Such as the prospect of spot  bitcoin ETF approvals in early 2024. And the approaching halving, the growing number of institutional investors and the sustainability of market capitalization. Our experts expect bullish momentum in December. As they did throughout the fourth quarter before that.

Our expectations for November were to reach the level of $38 thousand, and bitcoin succeeded to grow to this level at the end of the month. Because of this, the $40-45k zone expected since the beginning of the year remains the target zone for December. And our experts expect BTC to grow to these levels, as well as to increase the capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market to $1.6-1.8 trillion.

Now the main resistance level for bitcoin is around $40 thousand. It can be expected that the cryptocurrency will overcome this psychological mark by mid-December. The optimistic scenario assumes bitcoin growth to $45 thousand by the end of the year and continued growth at a quiet pace to $55 thousand until halving in the bitcoin network in the spring of 2024.

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Buyers are in a hurry. What’s going to happen to bitcoin this week

Our weekly feature. Our experts analyzed the market situation and told how it may change for bitcoin this week

On Sunday, November 26, bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $37.7k, its price up 3% since the end of the previous week.

Key events of the past week:

  • News of a $4.3 billion fine for crypto exchange Binance and the resignation of the head of Binance. The market had mixed reactions to the news.
  • The expectation of the soon approval of bitcoin-ETF in the US was the main factor of investor optimism and BTC price growth.
  • Weakening of the US dollar. Had a supporting effect on the bitcoin price.
  • The growth of stock indices in the U.S. had a positive impact on the bitcoin price dynamics.

Last week, bitcoin traded in a range of $35,632 to $38,414.

On November 20, bitcoin closed at $37,448 after a slight increase of 0.24%. On November 21 and 22, the price plummeted to $35,632 amid news of a $4.3 billion fine for Binance and the resignation of Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao. However, by the end of Wednesday, November 22, bitcoin recovered its losses and rose by 4.66% to close at $37,408. Thursday and Friday were relatively quiet with slight price fluctuations around $37,500.

November 24 saw a 1.12% rise with a high of $38,414. It became the highest value in the last 18 months. Buyers failed to consolidate at these high levels. Almost immediately after the high was updated, there was a correction to $37,550. Nevertheless, bitcoin managed to stabilize above $37,500, maintaining most of the gained growth. At the end of the week bitcoin shows positive dynamics with growth of 0.84%.

The main driver of the upward dynamics were positive expectations of the soon approval of the spot bitcoin-ETF by the U.S. financial regulator. Weakening of the dollar and growth of stock indices in the U.S. also played into the hands of the “bulls”.

Buyers are in a hurry to get on the offensive, even though a new phase of growth has begun since November 21.

Our experts note that buyers overcame the recent drop after Binance’s CEO stepped down and needed to hold out for a couple days. BitRiver estimates that this would have allowed buyers to rest a bit. In order to tear down all the “stops” on short positions, up to the $42 thousand mark. If the price stalls under the $38,500 level. Then, most likely, we will stay under it until the beginning of winter.

Bitcoin showed positive dynamics, despite the intermediate correction. The positive mood of market participants remains, supported by the prospects of launching bitcoin-ETF. This gives grounds to expect the continuation of the uptrend in the medium term.

Among the important events this week it is worth highlighting the US GDP for the quarter (the second assessment will be held on Wednesday) and the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve System J. Powell (Friday).

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Bitcoin bulls still control the market. What will happen to bitcoin this week

Our weekly feature. Our experts have analyzed the situation on the market. And told how it may change in the coming week for Bitcoin

Bitcoin trades on November 13 opened with a decline. They were held calmly. During the American session, the price fell to $36,534.

On November 14, the correction continued and intensified after the publication of data on inflation in the United States. And which slowed to a 7-month low. Bitcoin fell in price along with the dollar as sellers reached protective stops on long positions and took out weak players who entered the market around $37k.

Despite the mounting pressure, buyers held their defenses. On November 15, the bitcoin rate recovered to $37,858. The sessional rally was aided by optimistic expectations about the approval of a spot bitcoin ETF.

On November 16, the price corrected by 4.48% to $36,163 amid profit taking on long positions after the rally. The upward momentum faded as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) again delayed a decision on two applications for cryptocurrency-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

The first application was submitted by Brazilian digital asset management company Hashdex. It proposed that the SEC convert its bitcoin futures-based exchange-traded fund, the Hashdex Bitcoin Futures ETF, into a spot bitcoin ETF. The SEC did not have time to review it within 45 days. Therefore, the decision on it was extended until January 1, 2024.

The second application was filed by the American company Grayscale – the largest digital asset manager in the world.

Grayscale expressed its desire to launch an ETF based on Ethereum futures – Grayscale Ethereum Futures Trust.The SEC also failed to review it within 45 days. And so the deadline was extended to January 15, 2024.

On November 17, bitcoin rose 1.25% to $36,613 at the end of the day.The price spent the day in the price range of $35,861 to $36,800 after falling to $35,500 on Thursday. Buyers are trying to keep the price above $35,500.And to then continue the upward movement pending ETF approval.

On cycles, the corrective phase ends on November 21. By timestamps, I have no change.With the bullish momentum fading, bearish sentiment is building. Buyers need to hold the $35k level to continue the rally before halving.

Key events of the past week:

  • US inflation slowed to a 7-month low of 3.2% year-on-year in October, but had no impact on the crypto market.
  • Bitcoin price approached $38k for the first time in a year and a half. This happened amid optimism around the possible approval of a spot bitcoin ETF.
  • The bitcoin rate fell to $35,500 due to profit taking by investors after the price soared.
  • Another delay by the SEC in deciding on applications to launch ETFs for bitcoin and Ethereum. This limited further growth.
  • Bitcoin ended the week slightly lower, with buyers maintaining control of the market.

Last week, bitcoin traded in a range of $34,800 to $37,980.

What’s in store for us this week:

According to the cycles, the corrective phase ends on November 21. According to the time stamps, nothing has changed for me. As the bullish momentum fades, bearish sentiment is building up. Buyers need to hold the $35k level for the price to continue rising before halving.

Although a new growth phase starts on November 21, we expect a breakthrough to $42 th. from buyers on December 8. They should form a sideways trend above $35 th. And that will allow sellers to build up short positions, on which then buyers will “ride” up to $39 th.

On November 22, minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting will be released. Investors will be watching them to understand the details of the FOMC members’ discussion at the last meeting. Decrease in the dollar index after the publication of the minutes may become a trigger for growth of quotations.

In the U.S. this week will celebrate the national holiday – Thanksgiving Day, which will reduce the number of working days. Accordingly, liquidity on the global currency market may be low. And volatility may be high. Most often, when the U.S. has a day off. Then the markets are traded in narrow ranges. Therefore, the price dynamics in the crypto market will be determined by the news around ETFs.

Bitcoin bulls still control the market. There are no signals to sell. Our experts are waiting for the publication of the Fed minutes and renewed activity of buyers.

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BlackRock has applied for an ETF for Ethereum. What this means for the price of ETH

Ethereum is lagging behind bitcoin in terms of growth. And the approval of an exchange-traded fund is influenced by additional factors. We break down how much traditional investors are interested in the second-largest cryptocurrency.

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, filed an application on November 9 to register an exchange traded fund (ETF) to invest in the Ethereum network cryptocurrency (ETH). With the ability to directly track its underlying spot price. The price of ETH rose sharply when the news broke. And jumped almost 10% from $1,880 before consolidating above the $2k level.

This is not the first attempt to launch a spot ETF for Ethereum in the United States. For example, in September, Ark Invest and 21Shares filed a joint application for such a fund with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). And later, Grayscale announced that it had applied to convert its own investment trust for Ethereum into a full-fledged ETF. Today, its trust is the world’s largest Ethereum investment product. And with almost $5 billion under management. But it was BlackRock’s application that triggered a jump in the ETH exchange rate. And which until then had been lagging behind bitcoin in terms of growth dynamics. And even more so from tokens Solana, Chainlink and other leading cryptocurrencies.

The immediate rise in the price of ETH is similar to bitcoin’s June rally. When BlackRock similarly applied to register a spot bitcoin ETF. Such ETFs offer investors a convenient way to invest in cryptocurrencies without having to buy directly from traditional cryptocurrency exchanges and sort out their own wallets. Buying shares of exchange-traded funds is a more familiar form for clients of management companies. And pension funds in the US, particularly those who are deterred by the technical complexities and security issues associated with buying a real asset.

ETH has other prospects for ETF approval

Even if approved by regulators, the actual launch of BlackRock’s Ethereum ETF could take up to several months at best. And with that, there is no guarantee that it will be approved in principle. The SEC has up to 240 days from the date of filing to decide whether to approve the product. And that could push the fund’s possible launch date to next fall. There’s also a key difference in the regulatory status of bitcoin and Ethereum in the U.S., and that could also cause additional delays.

If nearly all stakeholders, including the SEC itself, agree that bitcoin is not a security and does not fall under its jurisdiction. Ethereum’s prospects are less certain. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has repeatedly dodged the question of interpreting ETH’s status as an asset.

This is not the only factor influencing the launch of an ETF for Ethereum. But the debate over its status could also possibly slow down BlackRock’s application. The SEC will probably want to observe how a spot ETF for bitcoin performs first. Before approving products for other cryptoassets.

Investor optimism is growing

Ethereum occupies a unique place in the world of cryptocurrencies because it acts as a means of accumulating value (like bitcoin). But at the same time, it historically has a higher potential for price growth. This hybrid model has found confirmation in recent years. When ETH was ahead of bitcoin in terms of growth dynamics. But lagged behind tokens such as SOL from Solana or BNB from Binance.

However, in 2023, the scenario has partly changed: the enthusiasm of traditional investors for the possible emergence of a spot bitcoin ETF. And probably made the first cryptocurrency more attractive to them. Ethereum has lagged far behind bitcoin in terms of price momentum. And the basic fundamentals of the network have not changed much over the year. Despite the fact that ETH is starting to grow following bitcoin. But its average monthly volatility is at its lowest level in the last five years.

At the same time, analysts give optimistic forecasts. Marcus Thielen, head of cryptocurrency market research and strategy at Matrixport, called the emergence of BlackRock’s ETF bid “a nuclear winter for anyone who doubted Ethereum.” Large investors, he believes, are already aiming to allocate to cryptocurrency funds.

Thielen noted that despite lagging behind bitcoin, market sentiment indicators show growing interest in ETH. And trades in crypto assets with higher beta coefficients can generate more profits.

The market happening is accompanied by an increase in the trading volume of “ETH”. And the growth of the funding rate in perpetual futures of both bitcoin. As well as ETH, which reflects the growing optimism among traders, our experts note.

 

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Bitcoin supply shortage hits all-time high

Our experts note that short-term investors currently hold 2.33 million bitcoin in their wallets, which is the lowest in several years

Amid the approaching halving of bitcoin (BTC), which is expected in April 2024. That now the supply deficit of the first cryptocurrency has reached an all-time high. And this is what Glassnode analysts write about in a new report.

According to the authors of the report, the upcoming halving represents an important fundamental, technical. And even a “philosophical” milestone for bitcoin. The total supply of bitcoin is becoming increasingly scarce. And circulating supply is already at historic lows.

At the moment, the wallets of short-term investors contain 2.33 million bitcoin coins. And that is the minimum for several years. As a rule, it is this volume that can be considered the real supply on the market. Since statistically it is short-term investors are ready to part with their coins in the short term.

In addition, experts record a constant outflow of coins of the first cryptocurrency from the wallets of exchanges. At the moment, the number of bitcoins on exchanges has reached a minimum since March 2020.

glassnode

Wallets noted by analysts as long-term holders, on the contrary, continue to actively accumulate bitcoins. And thereby contributing to the market’s declining liquidity.

Our experts note that in October, Glassnode analysts estimated that long-term investors accumulate $1.35 billion in bitcoins every month. The experts also emphasized that the total number of bitcoins owned by long-term holders reached a new all-time high of more than 14.8 million BTC. And that makes up about 76% of the cryptocurrency’s circulating supply.

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Bitcoin has hit a new yearly high. How long will the growth last

Our experts talked about the factors affecting the growth of the crypto market. And predicted the further movement of Bitcoin prices

The bitcoin (BTC) exchange rate rose more than 5% on November 9, approaching the $38,000 mark when paired with the Tether USD (USDT) stablecoin on the Binance exchange. And this is the maximum value of the exchange rate since May 2022.

A positive trigger for the price growth was the news that. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) began negotiations with Grayscale on the launch of its bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). And a report from Bloomberg analysts that the regulator has an eight-day window open for possible ETF approval from 12 other companies. And which had previously filed applications for the commission’s review.

The cryptocurrency market has seen increased volatility recently amid expectations of approval of applications to launch exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Investors believe that the entry of ETFs from major players such as BlackRock or Fidelity into the market will lead to a further increase in the value of bitcoin.

The regulator, represented by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), is taking a cautious stance and postponing decisions on applications to launch ETFs. And which have already filed 12 management companies. Experts believe that the most likely scenario is the simultaneous approval of several applications to launch a bitcoin ETF at once in early 2024, our experts believe.

Buyers managed to test the resistance zone $36,200 – $36,500 before November 9. According to the cyclic analysis, they will be vulnerable from November 9 through November 21. As all key levels are passed, now it is necessary to hold current positions till the third decade of the month. In order to get to $42 thousand by the new year.

In the near future, the crypto market will remain highly uncertain due to the potential launch of ETFs. This will contribute to the persistence of increased risks and volatility.

Fear of lost profits

The reason for bitcoin’s meteoric rise is investors’ reluctance to miss out on “a wave of growth that could hit the crypto industry” if the instrument is actually approved.

In October, even fake news about a spot bitcoin-ETF fueled the market. As a result, bitcoin managed to consolidate above the psychological level of $30 thousand and went to update local highs.

Many participants of the cryptocommunity believe that this instrument will attract trillions of dollars of investments into the crypto-industry. But earlier, market participants pinned similar hopes on futures and cryptocurrency options. Unfortunately, the launch of the tools did not lead to the expected result, our experts note.

As for the further goals of bitcoin, everything will depend on the news background. If the bitcoin price will be fueled by rumors of ETF approval. In the near future, investors will be able to see a “storm” of $40 thousand. In the absence of positive “bubble of expectations may burst” and bitcoin will go into correction, probably in the neighborhood of $30 thousand, our expert warns.

How long will the Bitcoin growth last

Judging by technical analysis and market structure. And also taking into account the fundamental factors, we can say that bitcoin is in an important phase of its cycle. And is preparing for a sharp upward movement.

The big players in the market will manipulate the price, and the expected approval of ETFs. As well as the “general euphoria about it” may lead to overpriced purchases. In the coming year, the bitcoin rate movement will occur in the price corridor of $25-36 thousand. And “a real bull market with bitcoin growth and altcoins taking off 10-20 times” should only be expected in a year and a half.

At the moment, our experts recommend to buy promising altcoins. And trade them between levels in order to accumulate positions until the target event occurs – the very market upsurge. But of course local drawdowns are possible, but the potential profit on individual positions can be more than 1000%.

 

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What will happen to bitcoin in the coming week

Our experts analyzed the market situation and told how it may change in the coming week for Bitcoin and the market as a whole

  • 5 important events in the crypto market affecting the bitcoin rate for the week from October 30 to November 3:
  • The US Federal Reserve meeting on November 1, which decided to keep the interest rate unchanged. This caused an increase in risk appetite.
  • Fed chief Jerome Powell’s statements about a possible slowdown in the pace of future rate hikes. This also put pressure on the dollar and supported the bitcoin price.
  • Investor expectations for the imminent approval of a spot bitcoin-ETF fueled interest in bitcoin earlier in the week.
  • The publication of weak US labor market data on Friday reinforced expectations of a slowdown in Fed policy tightening.
  • The price failed to consolidate above $35k.

Last week bitcoin traded in the range of $34-36 thousand. On October 30, the price of BTC fell to $34,474, but remained in a horizontal trend around $34,300. On October 31, the price rose slightly to $34,639, continuing to consolidate in anticipation of the US Federal Reserve results.

Detailed analysis of last week and conclusions

On November 1, there was a sharp rise to $35,421 after the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting. The growth was caused by investor optimism after the Fed head’s statements about a possible slowdown in rate hikes.

On November 2, the price rose to a weekly high of $35,984, from which the correction began. It was aided by a decline in optimism about the imminent approval of a spot bitcoin-ETF. Amid the failed offensive, the price fell to $34,300.

On November 3, at the end of the day, bitcoin fell in price by 0.64% to $34716. In general, trading was calm, without sharp bursts of volatility.

During the first half of the day, there was a gradual decline in cryptocurrency quotes. The rate fell to the level of $34,120, followed by a slight recovery.

Some support for the market was provided by the data on the situation in the U.S. labor market, published at the U.S. session. The indicators turned out to be weaker than market expectations. In particular, the number of new jobs for October amounted to 150 thousand instead of the expected 180 thousand. The previous figure was revised to 297 thousand from 336 thousand. And the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% from 3.8%, with expectations of 3.8%. And average hourly earnings rose 0.2%, compared with a 0.2% increase in the previous month, and a forecast of 0.3%.

Such data reinforced investor expectations that the US Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its monetary tightening cycle. This provided support for risky assets. Since the bitcoin rally was at the end of October. The reaction to the weakening dollar and the growth of stock indices was weak. The euphoria from expectations of spot ETF approval is fading.

What will happen to the bitcoin price in the coming days

Buyers showed themselves well, as they used the provided time window. And to carry the shorts above $35,200 and to get as close as possible to the level of $36 th. External conditions remain favorable for the upward movement. Only according to the calculated cycles is approaching the correction phase with a target of $33 thousand. And it may last from November 9 through November 21. The smaller the correction will be, the higher the probability of growth up to $42 th.

Temporary resistance is the zone of $35,000 – $35,150. Taking into account the weakness of the dollar and the weekly growth of stock indices. The buyers may have time to check the stops behind the level of $36 th. And it is logical, as the truncated formation is formed on the daily timeframe.

Thus, bitcoin demonstrated moderately positive dynamics this week. Our experts note that the key levels of the corridor remain $34 thousand and $36 thousand. To enter the positive zone, it is necessary to confidently overcome the resistance at $36 thousand. Buyers are better to go on the defensive and gain strength for the end of November: efforts will be required to pass new resistances.

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