Our Crypto-Upvotes experts discussed how US dollar affects cryptocurrency market. And gave predictions about the further movement of leading cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rate rose from $19.5 ths. to $21 ths. per day. Ethereum rose by 13% and passed the mark of $1.5 ths. Among the top 30 cryptocurrencies by capitalization, all coins, except stabelcoins, increased in value. Market capitalization of entire digital currencies market showed growth of 6.9% and exceeded $1.047 billion.
At the same time, the US dollar collapsed against the euro on Forex market to its lowest level in five weeks. For the first time in this time, the U.S. currency became cheaper than euro. Dollar index (DXY) is also near a three-week low.
Impact of dollar index on cryptocurrency rates
How Bitcoin and the crypto market in general behave is influenced by the U.S. Dollar Index. Our expert explained that the DXY index (U.S. Dollar Index) shows the dynamics of the dollar against a basket of major world currencies. Such as : Euro, Swiss Franc, Pound Sterling, Canadian Dollar, Japanese Yen and the Swedish Krona.
Thus, the index shows the growth or decline of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of currencies. When the index goes up, Bitcoin usually goes down. And when the index falls, Bitcoin goes up. This inverse correlation between the dollar index and Bitcoin was noticed a decade ago, and has been confirmed constantly since then.
Now Bitcoin’s rise above the $20,000 mark is due to the DXY index going down. The reason for this is the release of good reports by IT giants. As well as relatively positive data on the US labor market. And investors’ hopes that this information will lead FED to stop raising the rate.
Short-term strengthening of BTC or not?
However, despite some slowdown in U.S. inflation. The Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy. According to our expert, there is now too big a gap between inflation and the rate. Therefore, there is no reason to expect a strong slowdown in prices.
As early as next week at the meeting, Fed policymakers may raise the rate again by 75 bps (0.75%) to 4%. If FED declares that this trend will continue in the coming months, then today’s rate rally will be crossed out and sent to the trash garbage can.
According to our expert, we should expect in this case a new decrease of Bitcoin to the area of $15 thousand or even lower. Ethereum may go down to $1,000.
Under current conditions, cryptocurrency investors can liquidate futures positions. And make a profit by simply locking in profits on buy trades. Because there is no certainty that the current growth trend will continue now. Most likely, in the coming days it will be possible to observe the development of demand for the US dollar again.
What are prospects for growth of BTC?
Most likely, the trend of declining cryptocurrency rates may begin to change only in the first half of 2023. According to our expert, that is when the process of Fed’s monetary policy tightening may end. Or the step of rate increase will not exceed 0.25%. Then stock markets will start to form trends on increase of quotations. And on cryptocurrency market too, it will happen.