Our experts analyzed the state of the market and talked about how bitcoin will behave in December 2023

In November, bitcoin rose by 11% against the dollar. The main driver of the upward dynamics was positive expectations of the soon approval of the spot bitcoin-ETF by the US financial regulator. Additional support for the crypto market was provided by the weakening of the dollar. And the growth of stock indices in the U.S. in anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve rate at the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on December 13.

In the market remains positive mood of market participants. The technical picture on the daily timeframe is also favorable for the continuation of the upward movement of the pair BTC/USD in the medium term before halving.

Halving is a planned reduction in the number of newly issued bitcoins (BTC). Which are created and distributed to miners who perform verification and validation of transactions on the network. This is embedded in the bitcoin program code to ensure that the total number of coins on the network never exceeds 21 million units. The next bitcoin halving is expected in April 2024.

Important events that the markets will focus on include U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth data for the last quarter and personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price information for the third quarter. The market is actively watching inflation as it is linked to expectations of further decisions by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

We expect bullish dynamics

The digital asset market has historically tended to rise in December. Given fundamental factors. Such as the prospect of spot  bitcoin ETF approvals in early 2024. And the approaching halving, the growing number of institutional investors and the sustainability of market capitalization. Our experts expect bullish momentum in December. As they did throughout the fourth quarter before that.

Our expectations for November were to reach the level of $38 thousand, and bitcoin succeeded to grow to this level at the end of the month. Because of this, the $40-45k zone expected since the beginning of the year remains the target zone for December. And our experts expect BTC to grow to these levels, as well as to increase the capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market to $1.6-1.8 trillion.

Now the main resistance level for bitcoin is around $40 thousand. It can be expected that the cryptocurrency will overcome this psychological mark by mid-December. The optimistic scenario assumes bitcoin growth to $45 thousand by the end of the year and continued growth at a quiet pace to $55 thousand until halving in the bitcoin network in the spring of 2024.

Our weekly feature. Our experts analyzed the market situation and told how it may change for bitcoin this week

On Sunday, November 26, bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $37.7k, its price up 3% since the end of the previous week.

Key events of the past week:

• News of a $4.3 billion fine for crypto exchange Binance and the resignation of the head of Binance. The market had mixed reactions to the news.
• The expectation of the soon approval of bitcoin-ETF in the US was the main factor of investor optimism and BTC price growth.
• Weakening of the US dollar. Had a supporting effect on the bitcoin price.
• The growth of stock indices in the U.S. had a positive impact on the bitcoin price dynamics.

Last week, bitcoin traded in a range of $35,632 to $38,414.

On November 20, bitcoin closed at $37,448 after a slight increase of 0.24%. On November 21 and 22, the price plummeted to $35,632 amid news of a $4.3 billion fine for Binance and the resignation of Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao. However, by the end of Wednesday, November 22, bitcoin recovered its losses and rose by 4.66% to close at $37,408. Thursday and Friday were relatively quiet with slight price fluctuations around $37,500.

November 24 saw a 1.12% rise with a high of $38,414. It became the highest value in the last 18 months. Buyers failed to consolidate at these high levels. Almost immediately after the high was updated, there was a correction to $37,550. Nevertheless, bitcoin managed to stabilize above $37,500, maintaining most of the gained growth. At the end of the week bitcoin shows positive dynamics with growth of 0.84%.

The main driver of the upward dynamics were positive expectations of the soon approval of the spot bitcoin-ETF by the U.S. financial regulator. Weakening of the dollar and growth of stock indices in the U.S. also played into the hands of the “bulls”.

Buyers are in a hurry to get on the offensive, even though a new phase of growth has begun since November 21.

Our experts note that buyers overcame the recent drop after Binance’s CEO stepped down and needed to hold out for a couple days. BitRiver estimates that this would have allowed buyers to rest a bit. In order to tear down all the “stops” on short positions, up to the $42 thousand mark. If the price stalls under the $38,500 level. Then, most likely, we will stay under it until the beginning of winter.

Bitcoin showed positive dynamics, despite the intermediate correction. The positive mood of market participants remains, supported by the prospects of launching bitcoin-ETF. This gives grounds to expect the continuation of the uptrend in the medium term.

Among the important events this week it is worth highlighting the US GDP for the quarter (the second assessment will be held on Wednesday) and the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve System J. Powell (Friday).

Our weekly feature. Our experts have analyzed the situation on the market. And told how it may change in the coming week for Bitcoin

Bitcoin trades on November 13 opened with a decline. They were held calmly. During the American session, the price fell to $36,534.

On November 14, the correction continued and intensified after the publication of data on inflation in the United States. And which slowed to a 7-month low. Bitcoin fell in price along with the dollar as sellers reached protective stops on long positions and took out weak players who entered the market around $37k.

Despite the mounting pressure, buyers held their defenses. On November 15, the bitcoin rate recovered to $37,858. The sessional rally was aided by optimistic expectations about the approval of a spot bitcoin ETF.

On November 16, the price corrected by 4.48% to $36,163 amid profit taking on long positions after the rally. The upward momentum faded as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) again delayed a decision on two applications for cryptocurrency-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

The first application was submitted by Brazilian digital asset management company Hashdex. It proposed that the SEC convert its bitcoin futures-based exchange-traded fund, the Hashdex Bitcoin Futures ETF, into a spot bitcoin ETF. The SEC did not have time to review it within 45 days. Therefore, the decision on it was extended until January 1, 2024.

The second application was filed by the American company Grayscale – the largest digital asset manager in the world.

Grayscale expressed its desire to launch an ETF based on Ethereum futures – Grayscale Ethereum Futures Trust.The SEC also failed to review it within 45 days. And so the deadline was extended to January 15, 2024.

On November 17, bitcoin rose 1.25% to $36,613 at the end of the day.The price spent the day in the price range of $35,861 to $36,800 after falling to $35,500 on Thursday. Buyers are trying to keep the price above $35,500.And to then continue the upward movement pending ETF approval.

On cycles, the corrective phase ends on November 21. By timestamps, I have no change.With the bullish momentum fading, bearish sentiment is building. Buyers need to hold the $35k level to continue the rally before halving.

Key events of the past week:

• US inflation slowed to a 7-month low of 3.2% year-on-year in October, but had no impact on the crypto market.
• Bitcoin price approached $38k for the first time in a year and a half. This happened amid optimism around the possible approval of a spot bitcoin ETF.
• The bitcoin rate fell to $35,500 due to profit taking by investors after the price soared.
• Another delay by the SEC in deciding on applications to launch ETFs for bitcoin and Ethereum. This limited further growth.
• Bitcoin ended the week slightly lower, with buyers maintaining control of the market.

Last week, bitcoin traded in a range of $34,800 to $37,980.

What’s in store for us this week:

According to the cycles, the corrective phase ends on November 21. According to the time stamps, nothing has changed for me. As the bullish momentum fades, bearish sentiment is building up. Buyers need to hold the $35k level for the price to continue rising before halving.

Although a new growth phase starts on November 21, we expect a breakthrough to $42 th. from buyers on December 8. They should form a sideways trend above $35 th. And that will allow sellers to build up short positions, on which then buyers will “ride” up to $39 th.

On November 22, minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting will be released. Investors will be watching them to understand the details of the FOMC members’ discussion at the last meeting. Decrease in the dollar index after the publication of the minutes may become a trigger for growth of quotations.

In the U.S. this week will celebrate the national holiday – Thanksgiving Day, which will reduce the number of working days. Accordingly, liquidity on the global currency market may be low. And volatility may be high. Most often, when the U.S. has a day off. Then the markets are traded in narrow ranges. Therefore, the price dynamics in the crypto market will be determined by the news around ETFs.

Bitcoin bulls still control the market. There are no signals to sell. Our experts are waiting for the publication of the Fed minutes and renewed activity of buyers.

Our experts note that short-term investors currently hold 2.33 million bitcoin in their wallets, which is the lowest in several years

Amid the approaching halving of bitcoin (BTC), which is expected in April 2024. That now the supply deficit of the first cryptocurrency has reached an all-time high. And this is what Glassnode analysts write about in a new report.

According to the authors of the report, the upcoming halving represents an important fundamental, technical. And even a “philosophical” milestone for bitcoin. The total supply of bitcoin is becoming increasingly scarce. And circulating supply is already at historic lows.

At the moment, the wallets of short-term investors contain 2.33 million bitcoin coins. And that is the minimum for several years. As a rule, it is this volume that can be considered the real supply on the market. Since statistically it is short-term investors are ready to part with their coins in the short term.

In addition, experts record a constant outflow of coins of the first cryptocurrency from the wallets of exchanges. At the moment, the number of bitcoins on exchanges has reached a minimum since March 2020.

Wallets noted by analysts as long-term holders, on the contrary, continue to actively accumulate bitcoins. And thereby contributing to the market’s declining liquidity.

Our experts note that in October, Glassnode analysts estimated that long-term investors accumulate $1.35 billion in bitcoins every month. The experts also emphasized that the total number of bitcoins owned by long-term holders reached a new all-time high of more than 14.8 million BTC. And that makes up about 76% of the cryptocurrency’s circulating supply.

Our experts talked about the factors affecting the growth of the crypto market. And predicted the further movement of Bitcoin prices

The bitcoin (BTC) exchange rate rose more than 5% on November 9, approaching the $38,000 mark when paired with the Tether USD (USDT) stablecoin on the Binance exchange. And this is the maximum value of the exchange rate since May 2022.

A positive trigger for the price growth was the news that. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) began negotiations with Grayscale on the launch of its bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). And a report from Bloomberg analysts that the regulator has an eight-day window open for possible ETF approval from 12 other companies. And which had previously filed applications for the commission’s review.

The cryptocurrency market has seen increased volatility recently amid expectations of approval of applications to launch exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Investors believe that the entry of ETFs from major players such as BlackRock or Fidelity into the market will lead to a further increase in the value of bitcoin.

The regulator, represented by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), is taking a cautious stance and postponing decisions on applications to launch ETFs. And which have already filed 12 management companies. Experts believe that the most likely scenario is the simultaneous approval of several applications to launch a bitcoin ETF at once in early 2024, our experts believe.

Buyers managed to test the resistance zone $36,200 – $36,500 before November 9. According to the cyclic analysis, they will be vulnerable from November 9 through November 21. As all key levels are passed, now it is necessary to hold current positions till the third decade of the month. In order to get to $42 thousand by the new year.

In the near future, the crypto market will remain highly uncertain due to the potential launch of ETFs. This will contribute to the persistence of increased risks and volatility.

Fear of lost profits

The reason for bitcoin’s meteoric rise is investors’ reluctance to miss out on “a wave of growth that could hit the crypto industry” if the instrument is actually approved.

In October, even fake news about a spot bitcoin-ETF fueled the market. As a result, bitcoin managed to consolidate above the psychological level of $30 thousand and went to update local highs.

Many participants of the cryptocommunity believe that this instrument will attract trillions of dollars of investments into the crypto-industry. But earlier, market participants pinned similar hopes on futures and cryptocurrency options. Unfortunately, the launch of the tools did not lead to the expected result, our experts note.

As for the further goals of bitcoin, everything will depend on the news background. If the bitcoin price will be fueled by rumors of ETF approval. In the near future, investors will be able to see a “storm” of $40 thousand. In the absence of positive “bubble of expectations may burst” and bitcoin will go into correction, probably in the neighborhood of $30 thousand, our expert warns.

How long will the Bitcoin growth last

Judging by technical analysis and market structure. And also taking into account the fundamental factors, we can say that bitcoin is in an important phase of its cycle. And is preparing for a sharp upward movement.

The big players in the market will manipulate the price, and the expected approval of ETFs. As well as the “general euphoria about it” may lead to overpriced purchases. In the coming year, the bitcoin rate movement will occur in the price corridor of $25-36 thousand. And “a real bull market with bitcoin growth and altcoins taking off 10-20 times” should only be expected in a year and a half.

At the moment, our experts recommend to buy promising altcoins. And trade them between levels in order to accumulate positions until the target event occurs – the very market upsurge. But of course local drawdowns are possible, but the potential profit on individual positions can be more than 1000%.

Our monthly feature. Our experts analyzed the state of the market and told about what will happen to bitcoin in the coming month

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $34.4k on Tuesday, October 31. And its price has increased by about 28% over the past month. In the first days of October, the rate of the first cryptocurrency was at $27 thousand. And on October 16, the price briefly reached $30 thousand. And in the morning of October 24, bitcoin sharply added 18% in price, reaching $35 thousand for the first time this year.

We are unlikely to see an altcoin season this year

Our experts count November and December as months. Within the framework of which the cryptocurrency market capitalization can grow to at least $1.6 trillion. And ideally – to $1.8 trillion. Historically, the fourth quarter is successful for the cryptocurrency market, and so far October confirms this pattern.

The lack of fresh liquidity given the tight monetary policy (MPC) is certainly affecting the market. But however, demand for current crypto-oriented ETFs, even before spot bitcoin ETFs are approved, could be the reason for capitalization gains. And growth in the most capitalized assets. Expect BTC prices to rise to the $38k level in November, followed by a move into the $40k-$45k zone by the end of this year.

We are unlikely to see an “altcoin season” this year. And we expect market capitalization growth in November-December primarily due to assets from the top-10. The current macroeconomic situation is not suitable for risk-on strategies. And what we can see from the falling US stock market and the rise in gold. As a consequence, mid-cap crypto assets dependent on venture capital, aggressive investments are still experiencing a significant lack of funds. And they are unlikely to show a multiple price growth in the next month or two, our experts believe.

There should be strong new stimulus in the market this year

Now the situation on the cryptocurrency market is influenced by several factors. This is, first of all, investors’ expectations of approval for the launch of bitcoin ETFs. First, that the current spiral of bitcoin growth was triggered by rumors that the U.S. regulator approved a bitcoin ETF from BlackRock. And while the rumors were quickly denied. But the growth continued – reflecting the general positive mood of crypto investors about the prospects of such an approval. Everyone agrees that it will happen soon.

Secondly, bitcoin is affected by the tense geopolitical environment. And which has also triggered a rise in gold prices. Bitcoin is traditionally seen as “digital gold”. And so partly the capital was directed to diversify investment portfolios and in BTC . In addition, market participants expect bitcoin to rise in the run-up to the halving, which will take place in the spring of 2024.

However, there are also a number of negative factors that are restraining market growth. First of all, it is the expectation of stricter regulation of cryptocurrency exchanges and stablecoin issuers in the United States – one of the largest markets for cryptocurrencies. Therefore, we can expect moderate bitcoin growth in November. But a powerful growth spiral or bull cycle should not be expected yet. For this to happen, new powerful incentives must appear, which will be the catalyst for a new rally. Such a stimulus could be the approval of the launch of ETFs. Or either some signal regarding inflation risks in the U.S. from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). For example, a new stock market stimulus package.

Bitcoin price has overcome a number of key resistances what we expect in November

Since Bitcoin belongs to the class of risky assets. And the crypto market is influenced by the dynamics of the dollar and U.S. macro statistics. Among the key events for November, we can highlight the meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the speech of its chairman Jerome Powell at a press conference on November 1. On November 3, data on the labor market in the U.S. will be of interest. On November 14, the inflation report will be released. Data on consumer prices are extremely important. And as investors are interested in the regulator’s future actions on rates in December due to high inflation.

The recent rally of the BTC/USD pair to $35k was triggered by expectations of bitcoin-ETF approval. And it was supported by inflows into crypto funds and increased open interest in bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). The court also ordered the SEC to review Grayscale’s application for a spot bitcoin-ETF. Therefore, any published news or rumors (confirmed and unconfirmed) on the ETF will have a strong impact on the market.

During the last rally, the bitcoin price overcame a number of key resistances, testing the $35k level. After updating the high, the price has been in a sideways trend for six days. According to experts’ calculations, the downward correction is expected from November 9 to November 21.
Until November 9, buyers have time to move to the area of $36 th. If the price closes below $32.7 th before November 9, it may herald the beginning of correction. The target level for correction is $31.7 th.

Investors should be alerted by the lack of price growth after the Fed meeting on November 1 and Powell’s speech. And again, the less the price falls during the correction. The stronger will be the growth after November 21.

Our weekly feature. Our experts analyzed the market situation and told how it may change in the coming week for Bitcoin and the market as a whole.

On Sunday, October 29, bitcoin ( $BTC ) is trading at $34.2k. And its price has increased by 14.5% since the end of the previous week. Our experts have analyzed the situation on the market and assessed the prospects of bitcoin rate movement for the next seven days.

Last week’s analysis and highlights:

• Bitcoin price rose to $35,280 amid optimism around bitcoin-ETF approval.
• The SEC has been officially mandated to review Grayscale’s application to launch a spot bitcoin-ETF.
• SEC Commissioner Hester Pearce stated that the spot bitcoin-ETF should have been approved 5 years ago.
• The DXY dollar index hit a one-month low but was able to recoup all of its losses.
• After the rally, the price entered a consolidation between $33k and $35k.

Bitcoin has been trading in a range of $32,400 to $35,280 this week. On Monday, the price rose to $34,741. And on Tuesday, it reached a high of $35,280. This was followed by a correction to $33,390 on Friday.

On October 23, bitcoin rose 10.26% to $33,069. The rise was driven by several factors. First, the DXY dollar index hit a one-month low on the back of falling US government bond yields. Second, a U.S. court upheld the SEC’s review of Grayscale’s application to launch a spot bitcoin ETF. Thirdly, the rally was supported by technical factors – liquidation of short positions worth $161 mln and breakthrough of important resistance levels.

On October 24, the price of bitcoin rose 2.58% to a high of $35,280. Among the growth factors is the decision of the U.S. court obliging the SEC to reconsider Grayscale’s application. As well as news that BlackRock has assigned a ticker to a bitcoin-ETF pending approval. In addition, support came from a weakening dollar. However, by the evening, the dollar index reversed upward, stopping the bitcoin price growth.

On October 25, the price growth slowed to 1.69%, to the level of $34,496. Amid expectations of bitcoin-ETF approval, investors ignored the strengthening of the dollar and the decline in stock indices. Investors’ attention was drawn to the upcoming halving. Bitcoin’s share of the crypto market rose to 51.4%.

On October 26, the price of bitcoin fell by 1% to $34,151. The market was pressured by the strengthening of the dollar and the fall of technology stocks in the United States. The Nasdaq index fell by 2% and the S&P 500 fell by 1.2%. US 10-year bond yields fell to 4.88%. Fears of recession in the US have increased.

On October 27, the BTC/USDt pair fell by 0.76% to $33,892. During the U.S. session, the price declined to $33,390 amid falling stock indices. Since the end of July, the S&P500 index has fallen 10.2% to 4137. This week, US Q3 GDP data beat expectations, showing the economy accelerating at the fastest pace since mid-2021. Despite US Q3 GDP and expectations of a rate hike in December, fears of a recession in the country remain. Inflation continues to worry the Federal Reserve (Fed).

The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index showed that consumer price expenditures rose at the fastest monthly pace since May. But the annual PCE fell slightly in September, renewing concerns about high interest rates.

What’s in store for us next week with Bitcoin

We have a busy week ahead of us. The focus of economic data will be on employment numbers, including the ADP private sector employment report on Wednesday. And jobless claims on Thursday. And non-farm payrolls on Friday.

The market expects current monetary policy to remain in place. And despite the strong economy and tight labor market as inflation slows. But remains above the target level. In addition, the ISM Services report on business activity index in the US and China is expected. Geopolitical events also remain key drivers for traditional assets. Investors will continue to analyze the results of corporate reports.

The BTC/USDt pair is trading above $34k. According to the volume analysis, buying has noticeably decreased since Friday. This is understandable, because the price is in a sideways trend for a long time without continuing the rally. And when the price stands for a long time, the two-day flat starts to get on investors’ nerves. At this time short-term speculators, working on the downside, start to get involved.

By cyclic analysis there are no changes. The growth phase should last until November 9. Conditions are still favorable for growth.

An alarm bell for buyers may be the absence of upward movement after the speech of J. Powell on Wednesday after the FOMC meeting. According to the latest data from CME Group, rates will remain in the range of 5.25-5.50 with a 99.9% probability on Nov. 1 and an 80% probability on Dec. 13.

BitRiver forecasts that the decline phase may last from November 9 to November 21. Closing the day below $32,700 is likely to be a precursor to the beginning of the correction phase. For the correction, $31,700 should be selected as a support target level. Conclusions of our experts: We are waiting for the rate decision, Powell’s speech and the US labor market report.

The Bitcoin price rose sharply, having updated the annual maximum. Our experts named the factors influencing the growth of the cryptocurrency’s price and its future goals

On October 24, the Bitcoin exchange rate rose sharply to 35 thousand. And reaching a level that was last recorded in May 2022. A few hours before the growth began, it became known that two major companies – BlackRock and Grayscale. Have come close to approving applications for their own exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for bitcoin. The launch of such ETFs is considered in the crypto community as a catalyst for a new bull cycle in the market.

The price movement came after details of BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF called iShares Bitcoin Trust appeared on a list. Which is maintained by the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC).

Various exchange traded funds (ETFs), including gold, have trillions of dollars in assets under management. In the crypto community, it is commonly believed that even a small percentage of this capital can potentially impact the global crypto market. Several management companies are now awaiting approval of their own bitcoin ETFs from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

If their ETFs are approved, the demand for cryptocurrency will increase: buying shares of the funds implies the delivery of bitcoin as an underlying asset. That is, its direct purchase in the market, affecting the exchange rate. Under the management of BlackRock alone are assets totaling about $9 trillion. According to the assessment of the analytical company Chainalusis, it is North America is the largest cryptocurrency market. And its annual turnover is approximately $1.2 trillion. This amount exceeds 24% of the global annual volume of transactions in cryptocurrency.

Growth Factors

Shortly before the rise, it also became known that the court issued an order. Which requires the SEC to review Grayscale’s application to convert its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a full-fledged spot bitcoin-ETF. Grayscale has been seeking this since 2021, when it first sued the regulator. And challenging its past denials of its application. The amount of assets in its trust exceeds $19 billion.

The growth of the last few days is a consequence of the realization of a complex of factors, our experts believe. On the one hand, a significant buying position was formed in the range of $26-28 th. And that is clearly seen by the growth of open interest in recent weeks.

The change of trend to bullish has taken place ?

Another important factor that added impetus to the growth of bitcoin rate. It was the exit from the narrow trading range, formed since the summer, our experts explain. This led to the liquidation of a significant volume of short positions.

During the day, a sharp rise in the rate of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies provoked a mass forced closing of traders’ marginal positions. And who were unable to add collateral to their orders. More than 70% of them were in “short”, that is, betting on the fall of the market. According to the Coinglass service, which tracks the wallets of major crypto exchanges, positions totaling $400 million were forcibly liquidated from October 23 to October 24.

What will happen next with the BTC price

Judging by the current momentum towards $35 thousand, the price movement is in an active phase. And it is unlikely that the market will start fixing positions in the near future. The realization of the main factor (ETF approval) is still far away, and market participants will continue to form long positions in anticipation of this event.

From the point of view of technical analysis, there was a “void” after the level of $31.5 th. And we quickly covered this distance after the breakdown at the expense of traders. Who took short positions (in particular, those who traded a potential “Head and Shoulders” in the daily range).

“Head and Shoulders” is one of the most famous technical analysis figures indicating a trend reversal. It appears on the chart when a new price peak is drawn after an uptrend, but already below the maximum price. The maximum price peak is seen as a “head”, and the surrounding lower peaks are seen as “shoulders”. When the price crosses the so-called neck line, it often means a change of trend.

Further big players will continue to provoke liquidation of short positions even for those traders who trade with low leverage. The next target our experts call fixing of the price at the level of $36 thousand. In this regard, our experts continue to expect reaching the level of $40 th. by the end of this year.

Our weekly feature on Bitcoin. Our experts analyzed the market situation and told how it may change this week

On Sunday, October 22, bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $29.9 thousand, its price has increased by 11.5% since the end of the previous week. Our experts have analyzed the situation on the market and assessed the prospects of bitcoin exchange rate movement for the next seven days.

Key events of the past week:

• Bitcoin price surge of 5% to $28,500 on Oct. 16 amid false rumors of bitcoin ETF approval in the US.
• Comments from the head of the U.S. Federal Reserve on October 19 about a cautious approach to raising rates, which is positive for cryptocurrencies.
• New price rise on October 20 to the $30k mark on comments from the head of the SEC about reviewing applications for bitcoin ETFs.
• Bitcoin price up 10% for the week to $30,207

This week, bitcoin’s momentum was primarily driven by news and statements from US regulators regarding the prospects of launching a bitcoin ETF.

On Monday, October 16, the bitcoin rate rose sharply by 5% from the level of $27,000 to $28,500. The reason was the spread of false information that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) allegedly approved the bitcoin ETF from BlackRock. Although the news turned out to be fake, the price tested the psychological level of $30 thousand and showed the potential for growth of 20-30% after the actual launch of the product.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, October 17-18, the price consolidated in the range of $28,000 – $28500, waiting for signals from regulators.

On October 19, a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell supported the price growth to $28,700. His comments about a cautious approach to further rate hikes strengthened bitcoin as a risk hedging tool.

On Friday, October 20, bitcoin rose 3.33% to $29,669. The growth started from the Asian session and accelerated at the beginning of the European session. The BTC/USDt pair was rising to $30207. The first time buyers tested the $30k level .It was on October 16 on fake news about the approval of BlackRock’s application to open a spot bitcoin-ETF. Despite the denial of the rumors. They allowed investors to see the potential for bitcoin to strengthen once the ETF was officially approved.

Companies that have filed are expecting SEC filings to be approved within 3-6 months. And that fits the timeline for the upcoming halving in April 2024.

Gary Gansler, Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), gave an interview to Bloomberg. And in which he talked about the current status of applications for the spot bitcoin-ETF. He emphasized that the SEC staff uses a time-tested process to review exchange products. And respond to inquiries by providing feedback to potential applicants.

The growth of quotations was limited due to the fall of stock indices in the United States. They were under pressure after the speech of FRB Cleveland President Loretta Mester. She said that the U.S. economic management bodies assess the current conditions as favorable for raising the interest rate. However, the final decision will depend on the dynamics of incoming macro data and changes in risks. An important factor is that the target range for the rate is already on hold. And that may limit the scope for further increases.

What will happen this week

At the moment, the BTC/USDt pair is trading at $29,815. Based on technical analysis, it is worth giving a favorable situation for further growth above the $30 thousand mark. According to BitRiver estimates, the “bull market” will last until November 9. Although a return to the level of $28,500 within the framework of a local correction, which is considered a normal situation, is not excluded.

It is quite obvious that the acceleration of price growth will strengthen the positions of buyers and encourage waiting investors to open long positions. At the same time, the movement near the level of $30 th. should not create obstacles. From October 26 it is possible to start conquering new levels. Until the end of the year, buyers still have a lot of work to do to renew the historical high after the halving.

Next week, data from the U.S. will include the first estimates of third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth, expected on Thursday. In addition, consumer inflation data is expected on Friday. Including core personal consumption expenditures (PCE). This data will be important ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on November 1.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell and other central bank officials have suggested. That interest rates will remain unchanged in the short term. And may have peaked if inflation does not rise. Powell is scheduled to speak on Wednesday, October 25.

Our experts analyzed the state of the market and told us what will happen to the Bitcoin exchange rate in the coming month

October is going to be an interesting period for Bitcoin, which will largely determine further developments in the entire market.

The BTC market continues to stabilize after several events that affected its price in recent months. Bitcoin’s price has reached a one-year low. And at the same time falling by 13% from the July high, which was $31.5 thousand. The fall is due to the accumulation of funds by institutional investors. And that led to a decrease in the supply of BTC on exchanges. Now only 5.83% of the total amount of BTC is in the wallets of crypto exchanges.

Historical analysis shows that a decrease in bitcoin supply on exchanges is often associated with an increase in its price. However, despite this, the opposite trend was observed in September.

Grayscale has won a lawsuit against the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) over the conversion of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a spot bitcoin-ETF. This has led to large purchases of BTC by institutional investors. And most of whom are storing assets in cold wallets to increase the safety of their funds. This has also contributed to a reduction in the supply of BTC on exchanges.

The bearish mood in the bitcoin market led to a decrease in trading activity. And the daily trading volume reached a low. However, if the market sentiment changes to bullish, the price of bitcoin, and with it the rest of the cryptocurrencies, will start to rise.

Data from In/Out of Money Around Price (IOMAP) shows that if bitcoin overcomes the resistance at $28.5 thousand, it could stimulate the price to rise to $28.5 thousand. If trading volumes increase significantly, bitcoin’s next rally could exceed this level.

However, if the price drops below $25k, the forecast may be canceled and bearish sentiment may increase.

Hopes for an upward price movement are high

Historically, October is one of the strongest months for VTS. And in 69% of cases the first cryptocurrency grew. The situation in altcoins is a bit different. Many alternative coins have “rewritten the bottom” and continue to trade with about 90% discount. If bitcoin manages to consolidate above the zone outlined above, altcoins could return to early July levels. If Bitcoin manages to consolidate above the zone.

And which has been outlined above, altcoins could return to early July levels. Some coins could go higher. But such a prospect is better to assess individually for each project.

The last few months with a shortage of fresh liquidity. As well as fundamental factors that can return interest in digital assets, the positioning of participants on BTC does not change. And large players continue to “hold” (hold in anticipation of growth), while small players continue to lose money on derivatives inside the price range.

This directly affects the lack of strong price movements. And so far, it is very difficult to say for sure what exactly will be the trigger for a surge in volatility. However, our experts note that such a long sideways (“flat”) formation on BTC will definitely lead to a price explosion in the future.